More Bad News for Russia

[Boethius]

Isn't that a or maybe even 'the' crucial step that needs to be taken for both sides to move forward?

What's stopping it?  As moby stated from the official observers there are ceasefire violations, but the reports are not able to say which side is responsible, leaving all to assuming both.

The step cannot be taken unilaterally.  Representatives of the so called DNR and LPR need to approve those constitutional amendments, and they have refused all negotiations with Kyiv.

Is the following opinion (still) valid?
http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/02/10/88929/

I suppose.  The issue is that if those regions are granted autonomous status within Ukraine, their criminals have free rein throughout Ukraine.  Make no mistake, these are criminals, not statesmen.  The region right now is lawless.

Are smaller scale ceasefire skirmishes really the reason behind UA not amending their constitution per the agreement or being used as a veil for a political conundrum, even catch 22?

Yes.  Plus the fact the other side won't agree to the text of the amendments.

[Boethius]

What do you mean propaganda? Russians in Russia consider population of Donbass as Russians, that's the fact. Nobody cares about their ethnic background while they're voting to be Russians. Ethnos in our understanding is  cultural self-identification, plus the language. To be Russian or Ukrainian at Donbass now is the choice of cultural values, so  ethnic reasoning is not working there.

Well, Russians can consider the entire population of Ukraine Russians.  That doesn't make it a fact.

The majority of the population in that region did not ask for war.  That is why the first leaders of the war were all Russian transplants, with Russian arms.  The majority of those fleeing the region fled to Ukraine, not Russia.  That is how propaganda has affected your thinking.

[jone]

Ethnic Russian vs. Ethnic Ukrainian?

I don't even think anyone can truthfully fully define what one is.  Typically an Ethnic Russian living in Ukraine would be someone that had their forebears move from Russia to Ukraine.  But, because Ukraine was simply a Soviet Republic prior to the breakup of the SU in 1991, there really was no distinction.  It is further clouded by the number of people who originated in Ukraine who were in leadership positions in the Kremlin. 

I would guess that the main components of an Ethnic Russian would be:

1.  Forebears

2.  Language

3.  Ideological and political

But I would be interested to listen to any definitions and how they apply to areas of Ukraine.

[Boethius]

Ethnic Ukrainian is someone who has Ukrainian blood.  Ethnic Russian is someone who has Russian blood.   "Ukrainian" is someone, regardless of nationality, who identifies as Ukrainian because they live in Ukraine, and same for Russian.

In our family, the better half is partly Russian, partly Ukrainian, mostly neither.  His passport identified him, in Soviet times, as Ukrainian, but he didn't care.  He views nationalism as a cancer.  If someone said he was Russian, he was fine with that.  His mother identifies as Russian, as does his sister. 

Stirlitz, who used to post here, is ethnically Russian, but identifies as Ukrainian, so much so, he refers to Putin as "huilo".

The above is not unusual in Eastern Ukraine or Kyiv, and no one in Ukraine, for the most part, cares.  The only people for whom this is an issue is Russian nationalists fascists, who have used this as a way to "unify" Russians in their quest to rebuild a Russian state.

[Boethius]

But, because Ukraine was simply a Soviet Republic prior to the breakup of the SU in 1991, there really was no distinction.

This is inaccurate.

It is further clouded by the number of people who originated in Ukraine who were in leadership positions in the Kremlin. 

They were communists, and part of Bolshevik ideology was to build a new man, free from the constraints of the past.  One of those constraints was nationalism, and national identity.  There is a reason why one of the cardinal sins of Soviet ethnic minorities was to be identified as a "bourgeois nationalist", and why dissidents who advocated for linguistic and historical ties to their countries, be it Ukrainian/Ukraine, Belarussian/Belarus, Uzbeki/Uzbekistan, etc., ended up in gulags.

[msmobyone]

What do you mean propaganda? Russians in Russia consider population of Donbass as Russians, that's the fact.

I don't know if you've been to the region - I have - and what many folk wanted in 2012 [ Euro 2012 Soccer finals ]  and now has changed....  What Russians think shouldn't be the issue, right ?

This came about because Moscow didn't want Ukraine looking west and deliberately polarised people.

The results of this polarisation were warned about in early '14  - BEFORE GRU inspired  'away games' in Crimea and Donbas ...

I find it most bizarre that a nation that expressly bans talk of secession in the media runs daily bulletins on the antics of secessionists that it backs in a neighbouring nation.

[AkMike]

Belarus doesn't see Krym as Russian either. The kremlin is going to be pizzed off at Lukashenko.

The Belarus Government has pulled globes showing Krym as Russian from the shelves. 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/belarussian-authorities-withdraw-globes-showing-crimea-as-russian/571366.html

[AkMike]

Russian's are cutting back on fruits and veggies and $pening their rubles on milk and bread instead to get the calories needed.

 Despite the posters that insist the Russia's in their glory days Russians are feeling the pinch.

 
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russians-swap-fruit-and-fish-for-milk-and-bread-amid-crisis/571378.html

[AkMike]

Moscow is upset that Germany see's Russia as a 'main threat' and a rival rather than a partner.

 What do they expect after disrupting the peace of Europe? 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-concerned-by-reports-germany-sees-kremlin-as-threat/571369.html

[AkMike]

The pseudo-government in Krym is going to cut wages 10% to some of their employees because they're out of money. Moscow hasn't been supporting Crimea as they promised during the invasion. 

http://en.censor.net.ua/news/391916/theres_no_money_crimean_state_employees_to_face_wage_cuts_krymrealii

[Boethius]

Belarus doesn't see Krym as Russian either. The kremlin is going to be pizzed off at Lukashenko.

No, they will understand he has done this because he is concerned that he is next on the list.

[jone]

Speaking of Next on the List, Belarus has actively rejected a Russian air base on its soil and is now resisting the deployment of Russian manned Iskander M missiles as a response to the US missile shield in Romania and soon to be Poland.

It doesn't take too much insight to understand that Belarus knows that one of the means for taking over Krim was the already placed troops in bases and on ships.

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/78976

Luka walks a fine line between cooperating with Russia and not letting the bear in his kitchen.

[mhr7]

Despite the posters that insist the Russia's in their glory days...

Who would that be??

[BillyB]

without getting into a chicken or egg first discussion, using the MinskII requirements outlined in http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_II#Measures as a baseline that all interested parties signed, which points have been complied with by each side?  Can either side state that they have fully complied with MinskII?

I'm just curious as to the current status quo and what is still left to do.  At this point, I see a bit of a stalemate of noncompliance on both sides whereas UA could only benefit on the international stage by fully implementing MinskII, even if it is done unilaterally.

Check out item #10. Russia and illegal militant groups haven't pulled out. Ukraine will let the East vote on autonomy after the guns and militants are out of the country. They don't want people voting with a gun to their head. Ukraine feels most of the people in the East want to remain with Ukraine. If the East votes for autonomy, they may get absorbed by Russia just as Crimea did. Russia knows the vote on autonomy will not end well for them unless they can influence the elections and that is why the militants haven't left.

[ML]

Russia knows the vote on autonomy will not end well for them . . .

But haven't a lot of the 'good people' left the area and sought sanctuary further west in Ukraine?

[BillyB]

But haven't a lot of the 'good people' left the area and sought sanctuary further west in Ukraine?

The good people will come back when the guns, Russian troops, and militants leave. When those regions finally get their chance to vote on autonomy, it's important the good citizens return to help keep those regions with Ukraine. They will not return in a hostile environment and Russia won't let citizens of those regions conduct a vote outside those regions.

[Belvis]

Ukraine feels most of the people in the East want to remain with Ukraine.

The weakest point in your assumptions. Kiev knows well the mood of people there, because of that there will be no vote at Donbass approved by Kiev. There will be the vote arranged by local authorities as it always happened in similar situations. Minsk-2 was the excuse for both sides to stop the war, not the realistic  way for reintegration of the region back to Ukraine. Autonomous Donbass within Ukraine would be the real nightmare for Kiev politicians, so their actions are well predictable and were counted by Putin in advance.

[JayH]

The weakest point in your assumptions. Kiev knows well the mood of people there, because of that there will be no vote at Donbass approved by Kiev. There will be the vote arranged by local authorities as it always happened in similar situations. Minsk-2 was the excuse for both sides to stop the war, not the realistic  way for reintegration of the region back to Ukraine. Autonomous Donbass within Ukraine would be the real nightmare for Kiev politicians, so their actions are well predictable and were counted by Putin in advance.

A vote? You mean a farce arranged and orchestrated out of Russia with zero scrutiny allowed by anyone else?A vote with a pre determined outcome !
All at the point of Russian guns of thugs and criminals-- yeah-that it the Russian way.
Can't you get it through your thick skull that Russia has NO raeson to have any say in what happens IN UKRAINE !!!!!

You continue to swallow Putins  bs--the idea that the people in eastern Ukraine  want to leave Ukraine is not-- and has not been supported in any poll. Even more so now for those that can see what Russian rule means.

[BC]

The step cannot be taken unilaterally.  Representatives of the so called DNR and LPR need to approve those constitutional amendments, and they have refused all negotiations with Kyiv.

The following article seems to point the finger at UA.  Yes this is not an independent website, so viewing it as the 'other side' of the same coin, which one better reflects the current state? The two parties facing opposite directions?

http://newcoldwar.org/donbass-republics-reject-foreign-military-contingents-territories/

“Ukraine was close to derailing the political group’s work for the second time. Another representative of the Ukrainian side said he was not authorized to discuss some items on the agenda,” Talakina wrote in Facebook. She described such an attitude to the negotiations as outrageous.

According to Talakina, Ukraine has not submitted a single document ever since the political group started its work. By comparison, the representatives of the self-proclaimed republics have drawn up and presented three drafts of amendments to Ukraine’s constitution; two draft laws on elections and two drafts of a road map for the conflict’s peaceful settlement. “Russia also submitted a roadmap draft. The group’s OSCE coordinator has submitted more than 10 drafts,” Talakina said.

Here's the facebook page http://www.facebook.com/victoria.talakina

[Boethius]

The following article seems to point the finger at UA.  Yes this is not an independent website, so viewing it as the 'other side' of the same coin, which one better reflects the current state? The two parties facing opposite directions?

http://newcoldwar.org/donbass-republics-reject-foreign-military-contingents-territories/

Here's the facebook page http://www.facebook.com/victoria.talakina

Sorry, but I view a Russian government article as anything other than false propaganda.


Here is the problem, in a nutshell -


http://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-konflikt/donbass-shadow-government-45102202.bild.html

[Muzh]

A military solution being achieved by Ukraine is not fanciful--it is a very real possibility. The implications for Russia and Putin- we will see.
The Ukrainian economy is in the process of readjusting itself without the Donbass already. The fact is that remarkable progress has already been made.
So-- that transformation of Ukraine is underway already.With or without the Donbass.

The way things will go-- all those Russian impoverished by Putin's stupidity will be clamouring to move to Ukraine in 5 years( including those on the Crimea)

You just have proven you are doing acid. Time to wake up.

[Muzh]

The fight for Donbass lays beyond economics or politics, it's rather existential question. Russia has no benefits to posses Donbass but she feels obligations to men there which Russians consider being Russians too.

Aw, that was more acid taking. 

[Muzh]

What do you mean propaganda? Russians in Russia consider population of Donbass as Russians, that's the fact. Nobody cares about their ethnic background while they're voting to be Russians. Ethnos in our understanding is  cultural self-identification, plus the language. To be Russian or Ukrainian at Donbass now is the choice of cultural values, so  ethnic reasoning is not working there.

LMFAO


Russians consider Brooklyn part of Russia.


Puh LEEZ

[Muzh]

My assertion is that UA can only gain by fully implementing MinskII.  That is the only way forward that would provide real teeth for the west to fully support UA if RU does not follow suit.

BC, in all seriousness, would you support the secession of Texas from the US? Or better yet, how about Texas being exempt from the federal law but being part of the US?


While we are at it, why not allow Russia demand a naval base in Finland? After all, there is some Russian blood in those Finns.


I understand your pragmatism, but what you are asking is the Ukrainian people to bend over and take it like a man. I don't think you'd be happy with Ben Dover as you cell mate.

[Muzh]

The weakest point in your assumptions. Kiev knows well the mood of people there, because of that there will be no vote at Donbass approved by Kiev. There will be the vote arranged by local authorities as it always happened in similar situations. Minsk-2 was the excuse for both sides to stop the war, not the realistic  way for reintegration of the region back to Ukraine. Autonomous Donbass within Ukraine would be the real nightmare for Kiev politicians, so their actions are well predictable and were counted by Putin in advance.

Absolutely. You see? You can dispense of the propaganda and post insightful comments.