2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[fathertime]

Bill too tall gets upset when he doesn't like an opinion, or is unable to counter it effectively,  and will create false quotes as a tantrum(p)

Fathertime! 

[BC]

Gator,

As far as tourists go, for June 10 million less in June than last year (-50%) with only EU tourists.  Some cautious optimism though things may improve once folks from outside EU are allowed in from 1 July (with the exception of US and a few others).  US accounts for 2 billion/year.  All in all don't expect too awful much, certainly not a miracle considering many took a financial hit.  But who knows, maybe folks from elsewhere will opt to come on down after considering the low number of infections representing relative safety.

So no, for a variety of factors I doubt we'll come awful close to last year's numbers, but will be interesting to compare notes in the fall, economic and infections.  I'd love to get back to the US and spend a few bucks, but it ain't happening this year it seems.  Personally I'm all for a slow tourist season to test the waters and see how things evolve.

[BillyB]

The virus is mutating. It's much more infectious than the first that jumped to humans. That means there's reduced chance of this virus dying out on it's own. Let's hope the next mutation doesn't make it more lethal. The more humans(petri dishes) the virus infects,  the greater the chances for mutating again.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/world-s-dominant-strain-of-coronavirus-is-10-times-more-infectious-than-the-one-that-jumped-to-humans-in-china-because-it-mutated-so-its-vital-spike-protein-doesn-t-snap-as-often-in-the-body-scientists-say/ar-BB167e7l?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

[fathertime]

The virus is mutating. It's much more infectious than the first that jumped to humans. That means there's reduced chance of this virus dying out on it's own. Let's hope the next mutation doesn't make it more lethal. The more humans(petri dishes) the virus infects,  the greater the chances for mutating again.


http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/world-s-dominant-strain-of-coronavirus-is-10-times-more-infectious-than-the-one-that-jumped-to-humans-in-china-because-it-mutated-so-its-vital-spike-protein-doesn-t-snap-as-often-in-the-body-scientists-say/ar-BB167e7l?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

I wasn't a big buyer into all the bologna about the virus dying out during the summer.  Some have said the virus has been mutating into something less deadly...one thought is if it can mutate into something less deadly  it can probably mutate into something more deadly as well. 
Fathertime! 

[BC]

IIRC the original was less deadly, maybe even less infective then Europe got the more deadly more infective version which spread to the US east coast whilst the west coast mostly got the eastern variety.

This is why I believe Fauci mentioned that those working on vaccines should address both.

I could be wrong though, this all from memory.

[BC]

Let's hope the next mutation doesn't make it more lethal. The more humans(petri dishes) the virus infects,  the greater the chances for mutating again.

Indeed.  This is why I think stopping the virus spread and not just being content with 'flattening' the curve is important - mutations may be less likely to occur.

With the high number of infections in the US, a new version may well be referred to as the US Coronavirus... - and rightly so as we allowed it to happen willingly.

[fathertime]

With the high number of infections in the US, a new version may well be referred to as the US Coronavirus... - and rightly so as we allowed it to happen willingly.

Now we can stamp it the USA coronavirus! At least we made something, we should put our little Made in the USA sticker on all the dead bodies. 

Fathertime!   

[2tallbill]

I wasn't a big buyer into all the bologna about the virus dying out during the summer.   
Fathertime!

You've made no predictions, you just say you did
or pontificate as if you did after the fact. There is
a thread for making predictions, you've made none
there as well.

[GQBlues]

Now the explosion of new infections going on is hopefully isolated to those band of idiots that consisted of antifa, blm, looters, rioters, statue toppling snowflakes, and the rest of zombie marching numbnuts.

The media celebrated this period of madness yet today not one of them is crediting that to this current rise.

[fathertime]

You've made no predictions, you just say you did
or pontificate as if you did after the fact. There is
a thread for making predictions, you've made none
there as well.

You are a little angry that I haven't made any ridiculous predictions as you have.   I don't see any point in making predictions about the virus.  I'd rather mock some of your ridiculous predictions because they are so mock worthy.   

I never saw reason to buy into the virus dying out in summer, it was hot in the tropics during our winter/spring and it was still spreading there.   

Fathertime! 

[BC]

Before crowing,  give us please progress reports on Italy's tourist revenues.   

If Italy's tourist season this summer is equivalent  to 2019 with a continuing low number of new cases, I will admit that America screwed it up. 

 

In addition to some countries external to the EU, looks like Italy is being very conservative by quarantining anyone from non-EU countries, even own citizens returning to IT.

This measure likely prompted by watching COVID increases in Greece after allowing tourists.

In order to support tourism-related hospitality industry, the government is offering vacation bonuses for lower-income folks (40K per year and under).  500 EUR for a family of 3, 300 EUR for a family of two and 150 for singles.  80% is a direct discount used when booking and the remaining 20% can be deducted from taxes.  We'll see how that helps out.

Obviously Italy is not going to give up the progress that has been made beating down the virus.

Things are almost normal here.  Even masks are not required except in businesses and in some Lombardy areas where the virus is still slightly active.

[BillyB]

In order to support tourism-related hospitality industry, the government is offering vacation bonuses for lower-income folks (40K per year and under).  500 EUR for a family of 3, 300 EUR for a family of two and 150 for singles.  80% is a direct discount used when booking and the remaining 20% can be deducted from taxes.  We'll see how that helps out.

That helps certain businesses make money but Italy still has to pay for it. Americans are banned from travelling to Europe so less outside money will be brought into Italy. Even if Italy gets infections to near zero, it only takes a few months before some region will be under lockdown again due to the speed this virus spreads. Certain measures of social distancing will slow it down but if not enough, it will spread as we can see in America as people go back to work or protest.

[BC]

Even if Italy gets infections to near zero, it only takes a few months before some region will be under lockdown again due to the speed this virus spreads. Certain measures of social distancing will slow it down but if not enough, it will spread as we can see in America as people go back to work or protest.

Billy,

It doesn't have to be that way. We just have to be smarter than this very dumb virus, remain vigilant and prudent.

Italy and most other EU countries fought hard for the progress made so far, not to just flatten the curve but to rid ourselves of the virus and deal with the embers.  We've gone through the several phases of reopening and normalizing over the last month without any great resurgence.  Numbers keep falling and falling.  All eyes remain on the ball for any flareups of the embers.  Testing continues along with tracking and tracing the embers, ready to douse wherever needed.  The remaining embers number less than 200 detected infections per day with 50k tests daily over the last month.

There are only 15,000 active cases at this moment, less every day as folks get well and cleared by follow up tests. 1000 are in the hospital, 87 in intensive care and the rest quarantined at home. Sadly 21 died today.

All considered, and in comparison of what's happening back home in the US, I am amazed at what has been accomplished here. Confidence is building that the situation can hold with or without a vaccine.

The formula is simple, 45-day strict national lockdown to starve out the virus, test the crap out of everyone to quarantine those infected, letting numbers fall to a manageable level. Follow this with a 45 day phased reopening and keep testing.

Either you own the virus or it owns you.  Just a matter of will, patience and perseverance.

[BillyB]

Italy and most other EU countries fought hard for the progress made so far,

At what price to your economy? We may not know the answer for years. The decline in economy will translate to a decline in quality of life.

America is a huge country with 50 States. Trump allowed governors to control the shutdowns in their respective States. Even within States, a one size solution doesn't fit all. Larger cities are more densely populated and are ripe for outbreaks while small towns have less to fear but why should a small town shut down if big cities 50 miles away are having an outbreak?

Sure this virus kills if left out of control. I hear this from the left. From the right I hear depression and people aren't getting their surgeries in time and that is killing people. What is the truth? At first the virus was killing tens of thousands of people per week more than what is predicted in 2020. I was on the bandwagon for quick and total shut downs. Right now in America, less lives are being lost than expected. We aren't as active or driving as much. Social distancing is preventing other diseases transmissible from human to human. Our actions are saving more lives all across the board. Due to many nations lying pertaining to the death toll caused by COVID-19 historians will use another chart to calculate deaths. In the link below, just before the halfway mark is America's chart. One can calculate the amount of deaths in the past few months and see it is much more than America's recorded total. Obviously we have much more COVID-19 deaths than what is reported to WHO not because we're lying but because some deaths were missed or misdiagnosed. But what is amazing is how fast deaths are dropping and the last week recorded in June is thousands of deaths lower than what is predicted for that week in 2020. At this moment in time, America is losing less lives than what was predicted to be lost through all means. We're saving lives right now. Amazing but true.

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard

[Gator]

ANOTHER VACCINE WITH EXCELLENT RESULTS IN HUMAN TRIALS

Pfizer and the German pharmaceutical company Biotech announced today preliminary results from human testing. 

Their proposed vaccine was previously administered to 45 volunteers.  In the low dose group, all 24  volunteers developed neutralizing antibodies at levels 2x-3x the levels observed in patients who had recovered from COVID-19. 

A Phase 3 trial with 30,000 human volunteers is expected to start within a month.  If that trial goes well, the vaccine could be approved for emergency use in the Fall. 


Phase 3 trials are expected to start as follows for other vaccines in the pipeline:

     Moderna - July
     AstraZeneca - August
     Johnson & Johnson  -  September
     GlaxoSmithKline and Sanofi - December

Still preliminary, yet good news.   

[BillyB]

This article came out an hour ago and it says a study believes America's death count due to COVID-19 is 28% higher than official count based on using historical records of what death count should be.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-deaths-in-the-u-s-may-be-28-higher-than-official-count-study-estimates/ar-BB16dD2D?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

[Gator]

This article came out an hour ago and it says a study believes America's death count due to COVID-19 is 28% higher than official count based on using historical records of what death count should be.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-deaths-in-the-u-s-may-be-28-higher-than-official-count-study-estimates/ar-BB16dD2D?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

Possible.  Lockdown is stressful to many people, and stress can cause death without actually being infected with COVID-19.

[BillyB]

Possible.  Lockdown is stressful to many people, and stress can cause death without actually being infected with COVID-19.

According to national data from 2007 to 2010, the suicide rate went up by 1.6 percentage points for each percentage unemployment rose.


Certainly the potential for increased suicides have been factored into Trump's and governors decisions to opening the country. Compared to the recession years, our government has increased unemployment benefits and stimulus money. They also made it easier to qualify for unemployment and not get kicked out of the apartment if failing to pay rent. Years from now they will figure out the amount of deaths from COVID-19 and deaths due to depression and the stress of staying home. They will also factor "other" lives saved when staying home. Less auto accidents, injuries and illnesses have saved lives which hasn't been brought into the main debate.

[GQBlues]

This article came out an hour ago and it says a study believes America's death count due to COVID-19 is 28% higher than official count based on using historical records of what death count should be.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/covid-19-deaths-in-the-u-s-may-be-28-higher-than-official-count-study-estimates/ar-BB16dD2D?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

28% higher due to COVID-19 but not because of death caused by the infection. There was a universal stoppage of elective surgery or scheduled clinical treatment. The effect is pretty widespread. People are delayed getting their normal clinical attention and treatment because of the virus lockdown. Rise in cancer deaths, strikes, heart attacks, etc.

30,000 - 40,000 new daily infection is flashed across the headlines. What it doesn’t tell you is nearly 96% of that are mild cases. Daily deaths are and have been steady or on a slight decline.

Hospitalization increased the past 2-3 weeks but what they’re not saying is, it is because They opened non-COVID infection hospitalizations.

[BC]

ra·tion·al·i·za·tion
/ˌraSH(ə)n(ə)ləˈzāSH(ə)n,ˌraSH(ə)n(ə)līˈzāSH(ə)n/

1.
the action of attempting to explain or justify behavior or an attitude with logical reasons, even if these are not appropriate.
"most people are prone to self-deceptive rationalization"

There is no reason why suicides have to rise.
There is no reason why folks can't get their medical needs taken care of.
There is no reason why folks can't go back to their old jobs.
There is no reason why folks can't go to the beach.
There is no reason why folks can't go on vacation.

No matter how one wants to twist and turn the argument, we are at fault for our own inaction, unwillingness and inability to get our act together.  It is a problem WE own and the results are now of our own creation. The finger of fault and responsibility can only be pointed at ourselves and our leaders who were not able or willing to take the ball and run with it.

"...but... but... but..." has become totally irrelevant.



Our unjustified sense of 'exceptionalism' is killing us.

[Gator]

BC,

Yes, the chart of new cases is disconcerting.  Keep in mind most of the new cases are in the younger age categories, many of whom are asymptomatic.  That and better therapies has lowered the case fatality rate.



The surge took off in Florida about two weeks ago.  So far the death rate has not kept pace with new cases.  There is of course a lag period, so the next 10 days will be telling.  Florida's COVID dashboard reports ICU availability by county.  So far, capacity is not a problem (1,033 open ICU beds in Florida with capabilities to expand). 

  Our unjustified sense of 'exceptionalism' is killing us.

Why the surge?  Feelings of invulnerability certainly played a role with the young.  Maybe some complacency.  Yet, I would say the prevailing feeling was resignation - the acceptance of something undesirable but inevitable. 

This will be over in the first quarter of 2021 as we progress towards herd immunity augmented by administering vaccines. 

[GQBlues]

As of June 29, 2020

The total population of the U.S. is 328,200,000 people. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the U.S. currently is 2,545,250 with 126,369 deaths. That means that less than 1% of the population have or had confirmed COVID-19.The number of new cases nationally have been declining since its peak in March and April but positive tests are increasing for the week ending June 20 in several regions. Deaths have continued to decrease. For those with COVID-19 nationally, the death rate is about 4.9%. The CDC reports that among adults, 8 out of 10 deaths have been 65 years of age and older. People at any age may be at greater risk if they have serious underlying medical conditions.* To date, there have been 32,297,688 COVID-19 tests conducted in the U.S.

Their truths over facts. It’s an election year folks! Russian collusion part deux

[BC]

Gator,
GQ,

I guess you two did not get the gist of my post.

No worries though.  In a few weeks, my point will be very clear.

[Gator]

I guess you two did not get the gist of my post.

No worries though.  In a few weeks, my point will be very clear.

I interpreted your post as we are dying.  I answered with:

So far the death rate has not kept pace with new cases.  There is of course a lag period, so the next 10 days will be telling. 

You could be correct.  I assert we will know in 10 days if deaths increase in younger people. 

[Gator]

BC, 

The surge of new infections is significant and please don't think I am belittling it.  Yet, its significance must be examined relative to multiple issues now besieging America.   

                     Pandemic
                     Jobs
                     Debt
                     Racial Inequality
                     Law and Order

And I excluded climate change, #Me Too, China trade, the genesis of the Russian collusion hoax, the next Russian hoax, healthcare-Obamacare, illegal immigration, ...... Whew!!!   And people criticized Eisenhower for doing nothing in his 8 years as President.

I am saying there are worse "things" than the pandemic even though it could take my life.