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Author Topic: The Struggle For Ukraine  (Read 287713 times)

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Offline Trenchcoat

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #75 on: December 18, 2019, 05:53:18 PM »
ever hear of the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact...
you don't think Russia would EVER do something like that again do you?
isn't the treaty a great cover story for when you DO invade....
do you know that 7% of Ukraine's territory IS ALREADY under Russian occupation....

if you're a foreigner in Ukraine
just remember this...
when you hear that Russia has cut off the gas to Ukraine....
RUN!!!! FORREST RUN!!!!

Do you think it will amount to a prelude to invasion? rather than just an economic war?

According to the map in this article Ukraine doesn't buy Gas of Russia, I think they couldn't afford it and were behind in payments & Russia cut them off for aligning themselves too closely to the west/EU. So now it is just used to carry gas to Europe in exchange for a carrier fee. I'm guessing this is more than the trouble of paying Ukraine a carrier fee even if the carrier fee is worth a bit to Ukraine.

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-12-18/u-s-concedes-defeat-on-nord-stream-2-pipeline-officials-say

What do you think the EU's/Germany's response will be if Russia invade Ukraine, will they trade embargo the gas coming through to Germany from Russia? Trade Embargo on a larger scale? Visa restrictions? Or not much that amounts to anything at all?

Or will Russia just leave Ukraine to wallow in it having outlived their usefulness to Russia?

"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Online krimster2

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #76 on: December 18, 2019, 06:53:21 PM »
the pipeline was built BECAUSE of the invasion
if Trump can't get sanctions reversed, than Putin has NO OTHER choice than to seize Ukraine...
but he needs to wait a bit more...


Offline Trenchcoat

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"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Offline msmob

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #78 on: January 11, 2020, 01:48:14 AM »
Trench,

Tell us about the Gas pipe that crosses under the Black Sea and via Turkey and Bulgaria that means Gazprom don't have to pay transit fees to Ukraine for 13 billion cubic metres ...?


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-08/russia-opens-natural-gas-link-to-turkey-amid-u-s-opposition


Google failed you as you THOUGHT you knew !


Mind you there'll soon be another pipeline delivering Azerbaijan's  gas to GR., Italy etc.,

Turkey is be the new Ukraine re being a key nation re transiting gas routes and distribution... 

Turkey and RU need to remain fwends






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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #79 on: February 02, 2021, 11:41:35 AM »
FSUW are not for entry level daters
FSUW don't do vague
FSUW like a man of action. Be a man of action 
If you find a promising girl, get your butt on a plane.
There are a hundred ways to be successful and a thousand ways to f#ck it up
Just kiss the girl, don't ask her first. Tolerate NO excuses!

Offline Grumpy

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #80 on: February 02, 2021, 08:24:44 PM »
I am sure the women of Luhansk are grateful that Putin saved them from my advances. :wallbash:
Good women are not cheap
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Offline Trenchcoat

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #81 on: April 03, 2021, 05:58:46 AM »
So yes following on from comments on the other thread it seems that an invasion force may be building on Ukraines border and who knows an invasion may be imminent:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/02/biden-calls-ukrainian-president-show-support-amid-russia-military/amp/

Fortunately Biden has made a 'phone call' so I'm sure all will be fine lol.

We've been here a year or two back when it looked like Russian tanks might start rolling down Kiev's city roads. So who knows if anything will come of it this time.

This time the virus will have seen of most foreigners from Ukraine so not as much chance they'll be caught up in the cross fire and so provoke further outcry from the west. The Russian economy I hear is soon to go into deficit so maybe a take over of Ukraine will provide the resources it needs. Historically Russia no doubt sees Ukraine as part of its territory and indeed it's history. I would be surprised if Russia would just amass tanks and troops at its border without reason as it must cost a lot of money & bother to organise it all and if for no reason?

I think Biden is seen as weaker than Trump so Putin may be a bit opportunist here. It would be a pain for Ukraine to go as then I would have to pay for a visa so I'm just sitting tight and hoping all will be well :)
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Offline Grumpy

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« Reply #82 on: April 03, 2021, 07:54:08 AM »
An estimated 4,000 Russian troops have been deployed to the border with Ukraine, according to the New York Times, citing an unnamed U.S. official. The paper also reported that in response to the troop buildup, the U.S. military’s European Command has raised its alert level to its highest setting — “potential imminent crisis.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Thursday that 20 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed so far in 2021 — including four earlier this week in the deadliest single confrontation for months — and another 57 injured.

Four Ukrainian servicemen were killed and seven injured in fighting earlier this week, the most deadly military incident in the conflict so far this year.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/02/ukraine-says-russia-massing-troops-on-border-us-warns-moscow-a73448

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/02/explainer-why-are-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-ratcheting-up-a73457
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Offline Trenchcoat

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #83 on: April 03, 2021, 09:36:34 AM »
An estimated 4,000 Russian troops have been deployed to the border with Ukraine, according to the New York Times, citing an unnamed U.S. official. The paper also reported that in response to the troop buildup, the U.S. military’s European Command has raised its alert level to its highest setting — “potential imminent crisis.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Thursday that 20 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed so far in 2021 — including four earlier this week in the deadliest single confrontation for months — and another 57 injured.

Four Ukrainian servicemen were killed and seven injured in fighting earlier this week, the most deadly military incident in the conflict so far this year.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/02/ukraine-says-russia-massing-troops-on-border-us-warns-moscow-a73448

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/02/explainer-why-are-tensions-between-russia-and-ukraine-ratcheting-up-a73457

You mean the Moscow Times not New York Times ;)

I read that but think they'll be wanting to go in with way more than 4,000 troops so I reckon that's either an early build up figure or inaccurate as from Moscow.

This article in the Mirror seems to give a pretty good idea of how it's likely to go down:

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/fears-grow-war-month-after-23847274.amp

So they reckon by around early May it'll all be in position attacking from the Black Sea, Normandy landing style to hit Ukraine in the South and thereby avoid the risk of getting their forces hemmed in and stuck moving up the narrow Crimean peninsula. At the same time they'll move in from the North of Ukraine to get behind Ukrainian forces fighting in the East of Ukraine, cut them off and surround them. They could also try to move up the Crimean peninsula and push forward in the Donbass also if they find they need to put extra pressure on Ukrainian forces.

My guess is that by now Kherson girl is deeply regretting not getting with Yours truly as who knows how badly the Ukrainian people may fair in all off this.

The article speculates whether this may escalate into a pan European or World War. I personally doubt it, I think if the invasion goes ahead Ukrainians will be left to their fate. I can't see Biden getting involved nor the EU. Ukraine is not a member of the EU nor NATO so they'll likely duck out of it. Now that Ukraine is becoming surrounded the only route for help to come will be through the EU/western Ukraine and I very much doubt they'll get any help there. At most the response will very likely be more Sanctions on Russia and Russia will take Ukraine. It's generally the most logical thing to do. I think Russia mainly sees taking Ukraine as taking back it's historical territory. I don't think they'll try it on with EU member states. Possibly Georgia may come after, Belarus is pretty much in their pocket anyway so that will be about it I reckon.

Whether this will mean a new iron curtain and an end to us western guys going to the FSU for women who knows, could be in jeopardy it's looking.
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

Offline Trenchcoat

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« Reply #84 on: April 04, 2021, 01:56:04 AM »
This news article takes a different view arguing that it is more to put pressure on Ukraine, the US, etc and to test US resolve to see if they will back Ukraine much or leave it to it's own devices:

http://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/ukraine-does-not-expect-russian-attack-in-donbas/2197483#

I'm not so sure, it may be a little uncertain how far the US, NATO and the west may back Ukraine but I believe Krimster was right when he said the last military manoeuvres were to test reaction of Ukraine, etc. This time I doubt it unless they are going to come back later for a third time but this time seems as good an opportunity as any. The virus will keep a lot of foreigners away including flights etc plus it means Ukraine is weaker because of it at the moment. It also means because of lockdown most people will be indoors anyway so potentially less civilian risk to life as essentially Putin will still want a functioning populated area.

I think whatever is said in the west at the end of the day won't amount to real support on the ground. Only western troops being moved into Ukraine would support any real intention to help Ukraine in my opinion and I don't see that happening. If it did Russia would have to decide whether it would attack and almost certainly spark a pan European or World War conflict or leave it be. I think he would be more likely to leave it be in that case but I don't think the west will want to risk being drawn into a major conflict by posting troops to Ukraine.

In fairness to be honest I don't think Ukraine is worth risking a pan-European or World War over, territory changes hand all the time throughout history but the places and the land remain. It would be a shame for us guys to see Ukraine go as a country but I don't think it's worth a World War or similar over, the loss of human life would be too high a price to pay for that I believe. We would just have to come to accept that things may be different there in future I believe.
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Offline Shadow

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #85 on: April 04, 2021, 03:59:30 AM »

In fairness to be honest I don't think Ukraine is worth risking a pan-European or World War over, territory changes hand all the time throughout history but the places and the land remain. It would be a shame for us guys to see Ukraine go as a country but I don't think it's worth a World War or similar over, the loss of human life would be too high a price to pay for that I believe. We would just have to come to accept that things may be different there in future I believe.
Russia probably has the same opinion. With Crimea they have their Black Sea port, which is the main thing they need to keep.The rest of the country would mainly be a burden on about al resources.
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Offline Trenchcoat

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« Reply #86 on: April 04, 2021, 06:52:22 AM »
Russia probably has the same opinion. With Crimea they have their Black Sea port, which is the main thing they need to keep.The rest of the country would mainly be a burden on about al resources.

I'm not so sure, if they took Ukraine it would give them a more direct route to Crimea. On a resources side of thing the East of Ukraine is more industrial, coal in the disputed region, tank factory around Kharkiv and Shipbuilding and sea trade routes around Nikoleav, Kherson & Mariupol. The west of Ukraine is agricultural so of some use but is likely where most resistance would grow up in the form of freedom fighting terrorist style of group.

Personally I would like to see Ukraine remain but it looks possible that Putin may invade particularly if no foreign power comes to Ukraine's aid. Ukraine is kind of hanging out there a bit as it's not in the EU nor NATO. I personally don't like the idea of it joining the EU as the EU tends to make countries dry boring places by getting them to follow all their many rules. On the other hand Ukraine is kind of exposed by itself. Georgia is about the only other country in Ukraine's position and in itself is too small & weak to offer Ukraine any meaningful help. It's why I think all of the breakaway republics should have formed their own separate Union/Organisation when they broke away from Russia/Soviet Union in the first place I think.

Anyway, will probably just have to wait and see what developments happen I guess.
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Offline ML

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« Reply #87 on: April 04, 2021, 09:22:24 AM »
I think if there is a large invasion of Ukraine by uniformed regular Russian Army personnel, there will develop a very large non-military resistance force that will inflict substantial pain on the Russian soldiers.

Over time, that pain may become too large for the Russian public to accept it.

Now just why this resistance did not develop in Crimea . . . I don't have a good answer other than fact that well over half of Crimea was populated by ethnic Russian folks.
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Offline Shadow

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #88 on: April 04, 2021, 11:22:06 PM »
I'm not so sure, if they took Ukraine it would give them a more direct route to Crimea. On a resources side of thing the East of Ukraine is more industrial, coal in the disputed region, tank factory around Kharkiv and Shipbuilding and sea trade routes around Nikoleav, Kherson & Mariupol. The west of Ukraine is agricultural so of some use but is likely where most resistance would grow up in the form of freedom fighting terrorist style of group.

As Ukraininan politicians have been ore interested in filling their pockets than developing their country, anything there is outdated and would need large investments to get up to date.Russia would not put in effort to get a possible war conflict for a country that has little to offer and would at least partially remain rebellious.
As for Ukraine joining the EU, it will be a long time. Only when country like Bulgaria and Romania and the Baltcs have their population up to a higher standard new cheap labour will be needed. At that time a country like Ukraine would be the new source of cheap laour.
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Offline Trenchcoat

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« Reply #89 on: April 05, 2021, 03:07:59 AM »
As Ukraininan politicians have been ore interested in filling their pockets than developing their country, anything there is outdated and would need large investments to get up to date.Russia would not put in effort to get a possible war conflict for a country that has little to offer and would at least partially remain rebellious.
As for Ukraine joining the EU, it will be a long time. Only when country like Bulgaria and Romania and the Baltcs have their population up to a higher standard new cheap labour will be needed. At that time a country like Ukraine would be the new source of cheap laour.

Some good points Shadow. Difficult to judge Putin's motives some have suggested it could be more political to do with Russian elections:

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/is-putin-about-to-launch-a-new-offensive-in-ukraine/

Though I always thought they rigged them anyway. Ambition could be more territorial than economic, to look more powerful and retake strategic Black Sea ports (other than Crimea which I believe allowed them to base their fleet there prior to takeover). I think as far as the economy goes there's probably not much in it either way. Putin would almost certainly be hit by harder sanctions. On the flip side Ukraine still has some resources worthwhile but like you say they would require investment to make them worthwhile.

Russian Elections are on the 19 September 2021 so for it to help Putin out in anyway some sort of military victory would be needed before then. I think it's too early for posturing to beef up support for the elections as after months of it they would see Putin and his allies in Parliament as just full of it with no real action. So there could be a high chance of action occuring but to what extent who knows.
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Offline Trenchcoat

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« Reply #90 on: April 05, 2021, 03:27:04 AM »
I think if there is a large invasion of Ukraine by uniformed regular Russian Army personnel, there will develop a very large non-military resistance force that will inflict substantial pain on the Russian soldiers.

Over time, that pain may become too large for the Russian public to accept it.

Now just why this resistance did not develop in Crimea . . . I don't have a good answer other than fact that well over half of Crimea was populated by ethnic Russian folks.

I think it could indeed end up another Afghanistan but only if Putin tries to take the whole country. Most of the East of Ukraine was pro-Russian, Russian speaking maybe even many ethnic Russians. So there maybe less so, my guess is that it would mostly come from the west, Lviv, Odessa and probably including up to Kiev.

Putin could just try and take the Donbass Region in despute and claim it's to protect Russian citizens there, etc, etc, excuse, excuse. He would unlikely get any real internal resistance in that territory. He could try to take a bit more such as Mariupol, Kharkiv where our Japs is or even further to try to link territory up to the north of Crimea.

I think the fact that they have bothered to spend millions building a bridge from current Russian territory to Crimea might suggest that is less likely as why bother to go to that trouble unless plan changes over the years.

My guess is that he may just try to take the disputed territory and possibly a bit more such as Kharkiv & Mariupol as they are right near it so could be deemed to be disputed also. That way Putin will likely avoid a larger conflict and long term resistance forces by just confining himself to this area. Once Ukraine's forces are defeated/gives up the fight the situation he will see as sorted and another election victory for his party. As they say he seems to favour small quick wars to help electoral success.

By taking the disputed region it will make the territory both Ukraine & Russia hold a more compact front on which to base their armies.
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Offline Trenchcoat

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« Reply #91 on: April 05, 2021, 01:33:10 PM »
Well, a lot of DIY stores around where I am were selling out of sand and cement over this Easter weekend. Could be people constructing Nuclear fallout shelters in case this Russian/Ukraine thing goes that way. Krim could have been right all along with an inside track on it all. Putin is an old KGB guy, cold & calculating and probably still wants to win the cold war, this he may see as his final moment to do so. At his age he probably wouldn't care if the while world went nuclear.
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« Reply #92 on: April 05, 2021, 11:45:18 PM »
Well, a lot of DIY stores around where I am were selling out of sand and cement over this Easter weekend. Could be people constructing Nuclear fallout shelters in case this Russian/Ukraine thing goes that way. Krim could have been right all along with an inside track on it all. Putin is an old KGB guy, cold & calculating and probably still wants to win the cold war, this he may see as his final moment to do so. At his age he probably wouldn't care if the while world went nuclear.
I see that Putin and Biden had a good talk. People in fear will band together and forget their differences.That was the main target of the Cold War.
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Offline Trenchcoat

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« Reply #93 on: April 06, 2021, 02:07:07 AM »
I see that Putin and Biden had a good talk. People in fear will band together and forget their differences.That was the main target of the Cold War.

Looks like so far the US, UK and EU are just offering their support without anything more tangible than words of comfort.

http://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/05/eu-sounds-alarm-at-russian-troops-ukraine-border-moves

This report states that artillery has been moved from as far away as Siberia and that the build up and manoeuvres are not in line with the usual type of troop rotations.

I guess in about a months time we'll see what Putin is after.
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Offline Trenchcoat

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« Reply #94 on: April 08, 2021, 09:36:00 PM »
Latest news is that Russia may actually be far more advanced along its preparations to invade Ukraine than thought with an invasion possibly coming within days!!!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/russia-ukraine-crisis-could-explode-23879639.amp

Stands to reason as the best time for them to be ready to attack is at the beginning off Spring as soon as the worst of the cold weather is out the way. That gives them maximum time to succeed in an invasion before Winter when the weather might make it harder. So gives most time in case of any unforeseen set backs. Scale and logistical bother make it look like Putin is serious about invading Ukraine and so a high likelihood he isn't bluffing.

Highly doubtful that western nations reassuring words will be backed up with military forces for Ukraine.

In any case Ukraine will need far more than a few plane fills of British paratroopers to make any difference, either that or they were really just sex tourists dressed up to parachute into Ukraine after too long without women ;D

Ukraine has apparently called up all its reserves but they'll likely pale in comparison to the numeracy of the Russian forces not least to say of the huge Russian hardware amassing at the border.
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« Reply #95 on: April 08, 2021, 11:28:32 PM »
Most successful Russian operations were in winter, as no Western military is trained to survive that long time.As for invasion plans, I guess some attempt to turn the people away from their COVID induced misery.
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« Reply #96 on: April 09, 2021, 08:26:00 AM »



Biden doesn't have the support of many Americans and is a weak President. Europe won't do anything without America. I'm not surprised Russia and China feel this is a great time for expansion.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #97 on: April 09, 2021, 08:38:20 AM »


Biden doesn't have the support of many Americans . . . .

Even excluding voting fraud . . . Joe has the voting support of 70-80 million Americans.
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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #98 on: April 09, 2021, 09:31:35 AM »



There's different levels of support. In my younger days I would join the military for my country's benefit regardless if a Democrat or Republican was president. I not only think Biden is illegit, our government is also corrupt at many levels and on both sides of the political fence. I would not join the military to fight a war Biden engages in. China and Russia understand we are more split than ever. Politicians are not interested in uniting us. They certainly won't ask us to accept a court process with a jury of 12 citizens to prevent riots. Russia, China and the Democrats want to divide and conquer us. It's not going to happen overnight but it's started.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline Trenchcoat

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The Struggle For Ukraine
« Reply #99 on: April 09, 2021, 09:46:02 AM »


Biden doesn't have the support of many Americans and is a weak President. Europe won't do anything without America. I'm not surprised Russia and China feel this is a great time for expansion.

I agree that Europe won't do anything without the US. The UK's army is too small to stand up to Russia's army for long so I don't see us deploying there by ourselves. It's only our nukes that keep the Russians off our soil. I don't see any mainland European army deploying there either. It would take several European nations to put up a credible force and I don't see the co-ordination or will to do that. End of the day whatever goes down in Ukraine European nations will just be glad it's not happening in their soil nor need to get involved.

Biden has to realise that he's back in the old cold war situation where he needs to counter Russia (and China) or lose allies and influence one by one. I don't get the impression he has quite fallen in yet and will likely stand helpless on the sidelines on this one.
"If you make your own bread, then and only then, are you a free man unchained and alive living in pooty tang paradise, or say no and live in Incel island with all the others." - Krimster

 

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