RUSSIA-The Future 2015 & on

[JayH]

This is an interesting piece-reading it I was wondering who the author was trying to convince-himself or readers !!
It does touch on an assertion  I was making some time ago-- ie-- that the collapse of the oil price  was no coincidence-- and parallels what took place in the collapse of the previous Soviet state.(btw--it was Gator who originally raised that point on this forum and the possibility of a repeat strategy)
The writer quotes some numbers and makes some interesting observation-- arguable in his conclusions-but he does at least cover some very pertinent issues and explains them clearly enough.

Bloomberg makes it clear that he is not expressing their views-- quote--"
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners."

I think he is just plain wrong in his conclusions.!!!!  There is a very large difference from the time of the previous collapse--the Russian people have much higher lifestyle expectations now-- and little patience will be shown to Putin and the Kremlin policies once people wake up !!


Russia Won't Suffer the Soviet Union's Fate


114 AUG 25, 2015 1:27 PM EDT
By Leonid Bershidsky
If you believe low oil prices killed the Soviet Union, it seems reasonable to wonder whether the current commodities bust will topple President Vladimir Putin or even break up Russia.

Cheap oil, however, didn't destroy the Soviet empire: Communism did. Putin's Russia is more oil-dependent than its predecessor, but it isn't bound by ideology or principle, and that may help the regime stay in power.

The Soviet Union was a strange kind of petrostate. In 1985, fuel accounted for 52.7 percent of its exports. But only 24.7 percent of the exported crude, 61.6 percent of oil products and 45 percent of natural gas were sold for hard currency, in other words, at market prices. The rest was supplied to Comecon countries for "transfer rubles," the Soviet Bloc's common currency, or was bartered to other nations within the Soviet orbit. Satellite countries were able to obtain oil and gas in exchange for goods the Soviet Union didn't particularly need. This was, in effect, a system of subsidies.

Much of the hard currency earned by exports to the capitalist world was used to purchase grain. The collectivization of farming under Stalin and the subsequent decline of Soviet agriculture turned Russia from the No. 1 grain exporter into the biggest importer. Yegor Gaidar, who implemented the radical post-Soviet reforms in Russia in the early 1990s, wrote in 2007 that after Saudi Arabia stopped supporting oil prices in 1985, the Soviet leadership was faced with a stark choice:

There were three options -- or a combination of three options -- available to the Soviet leadership. First, dissolve the Eastern European empire and effectively stop barter trade in oil and gas with the Socialist bloc countries, and start charging hard currency for the hydrocarbons. This choice, however, involved convincing the Soviet leadership in 1985 to negate completely the results of World War II. In reality, the leader who proposed this idea at the CPSU Central Committee meeting at that time risked losing his position as general secretary. Second, drastically reduce Soviet food imports by $20 billion, the amount the Soviet Union lost when oil prices collapsed. But in practical terms, this option meant the introduction of food rationing at rates similar to those used during World War II. The Soviet leadership understood the consequences: the Soviet system would not survive for even one month. This idea was never seriously discussed. Third, implement radical cuts in the military-industrial complex. With this option, however, the Soviet leadership risked serious conflict with regional and industrial elites, since a large number of Soviet cities depended solely on the military-industrial complex.  .  .

Putin has demonstrated he can be pragmatic, and his response to the crisis, while flawed in many ways, should help Russia weather this storm.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-25/russia-won-t-suffer-the-soviet-union-s-fate?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=55dcd9f304d3015795000001&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook

[JayH]

For some time it has been clear that Russia is heading for a fall-- how big a fall is in their own hands-or Putin and the Kremlins hands.The idea of a massive change of direction to reform Russia is unlikely-- as Putin attempts to blame everyone else for his problems.

What is clear though is that, unlike the first 15 years or so of Putin’s rule, he now faces a much more challenging outlook, of low oil prices, Western sanctions, war in Ukraine, plus also more restricted options in terms of the re-orientation East. One solution would be to refocus on reform at home – addressing long running and deep structural problems, mostly associated with the business environment (legal system, corruption, bureaucracy, red tape, property rights, level playing field, etc), but these all threaten the power vertical/sovereign democratic model of governance, and efforts to rein in Western companies operating in Russia, hardly suggest meaningful change is in the offing.

Is Putin's luck running out?

It was notable that in the early Vladimir Putin era, he benefited from a remarkable lucky streak, almost Teflon Tony Blair style – that is until the Iraq war hit the ex-British prime minister and the rest and Blair is now largely history.

Similar for Putin.

He came in to power in 1999 at the low point of the Boris Yeltsin era- after a devaluation/default and debt restructuring after oil prices hit a low of $8 a barrel, and then it appeared the only way was up. We all know the rest, a decade of seemingly ever higher oil prices, market re-opening/access, cheap financing, rating upgrades – arguably a decent 2008 crisis, when Russian macro-policy responses were prudent and helped by the fact that his frugal former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, had had the wherewithal during the good years to set up a rainy day oil fund in effect which was deployed to good effect through the global financial crisis.

Putin’s popularity was augmented by early efforts to rein in oligarchs, and then the regions, countering centrifugal forces which were accelerating in the Yeltsin era, and as reflected in the wars in Chechnya. Putin reversed those trends, and showed a willingness to counter what Russia saw as the West’s encroachment first in the Georgia was in 2008, and more recently in Ukraine.

But perhaps the evidence now is that Putin’s luck finally running out (as per Blair, and arguably Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey), as reflected in the now long-running conflict in Ukraine, which shows no signs of abating, and risks pulling Russia in even further – as Moscow is forced to “double” up if it is to deliver on its strategic objectives therein, and then lower oil/commodity prices, and even China.

Note that a Russian reaction to the increasingly difficult relationship with the West, over Ukraine, has been to try and re-orient Eastwards, and to try and build trade, investment and financing ties with China This has seen big energy sector investment/supply deals signed, including the East and West Siberian gas pipeline deals. This re-orientation is now looking increasingly flawed, as China struggles with its problems at home, and is likely to have less financing available for investments in Russia.

In reality, the eastward re-orientation by Russia was less than wholehearted, and more of a short term ploy to send a message to the West that it had other options – “playing hard to get.”

In strategic terms, Moscow still views China as a rival and security threat to the vast and largely uninhabited East of the country. This re-orientation hence was more tactical, opportunistic and short term, than strategic or long term even. The Chinese also largely saw it the same way – understanding that Russia was facing short term difficulties in terms of its relationship with the West, and that this could create some great short term trading/investment opportunities, i.e. and ability to sign long term energy deals, on very favorable terms, to fund these deals through Chinese banks at lucrative rates, and to buy assets, particularly in the natural resource sector very cheaply. “Bring it on” from a Chinese perspective.

The question is with oil lower, and the outlook for the Chinese economy now appearing much more challenging will Russia re-consider this recent tilt Eastward. So far there is not much evidence of this, albeit China’s current difficulties in the economic sphere may be a significant surprise to the authorities in Moscow, as they are to many in the market at present.


http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-is-putins-luck-running-out-396575.html?utm_campaign=traqli&utm_source=traqli&utm_medium=traqli&source=traqli

[cc3]

Possible rationale for the Kremlin to orchestrate the artificial bankruptcy of Transaero:

             "Moscow is raising the prices of air tickets to foreign destinations by a variety of means, including the seizure of Transaero, which had undercut Aeroflot – and hence the regime – by offering combined air, hotel, and food tickets for less than the state airline charged for just the flights.  So, it had to be closed down."

from:

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.cz/2015/11/moscow-erecting-not-iron-curtain-but.html

[JayH]

This could be the start of ongoing retaliation & disruption for the Russian invasion of Ukraine's Crimea.
This unlikely to be an isolated incident.Of course--they may have been Islamic ?



 Anti-Russian saboteurs plunge Crimea into darkness by blowing up electrical towers


Authorities in Crimea have declared a state of emergency after anti-Russian saboteurs blew up major electrical transmission towers, cutting power to almost 2 million people amid escalating tensions around the Black Sea peninsula.

The blackout struck just after midnight on Sunday. "Crimea is completely cut off," said Viktor Plakida, the director of Crimea Energy.

Ukrainian nationalists are suspected of detonating explosives on two electricity pylons, plunging Crimea, which was annexed by Russia last year, into darkness. Photos of the damage showed the flag of Crimean Tatars attached to one of the wrecked masts.

The incident comes more than two months after exiled Crimean Tatars — an ethnic, minority group native to the region — began blocking an important trade road between Ukraine and Crimea in a protest against discrimination and continued Russian rule.

http://news.vice.com/article/anti-russian-saboteurs-plunge-crimea-into-darkness-by-blowing-up-electrical-towers

[JayH]

"Sanctions work, they really do," Kasyanov says

Russia's ex-PM Mikhail Kasyanov: Putin and his regime are severely affected by sanctions

UNIAN sat down with one of Russia's opposition leaders, former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, to learn how the opposition sees the prospects for resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

In Russia, any discussion, whether it is an international conference or the analysis of internal problems, sooner or later, touches the Ukrainian issue. Off the record, many supporters of the Russian authorities as well as a few opposition members believe that it is the aggression against Russia's neighbor that has put an end to the era of "Putin's stability." It all started with the annexation of Crimea and escalated with the invasion of Donbas. The Russians are becoming more aware that destabilizing Ukraine comes with a great cost.

The deadline of the Minsk agreements is about to expire, and sanctions against Russia may be extended if pro-Russian militants in Donbas do not comply with these agreements. UNIAN spoke with Russia's ex-Finance Minister, one of the leaders of the Russian opposition, Mikhail Kasyanov, to find out whether there is a way out of this vicious circle, and what it is supposed to be like.



http://uatoday.tv/news/russia-s-ex-pm-mikhail-kasyanov-putin-and-his-regime-are-severely-affected-by-sanctions-553052.html

[fathertime]

Putin and his regime are severely affected by sanctions

 

Probably not as true as you would like it to be.


Western arms makers see sales fall, but Russia rises



.....Russian arms sales don't appear to have suffered much from the international sanctions slapped on Moscow after its annexation of Crimea in March 2014. Weapons industry officials have said the sanctions have merely prompted Russia to seek out new markets and develop new technologies.

But because of its conflict with Russia, Ukraine's arms sale have plunged by 37.4 percent......

http://news.yahoo.com/western-arms-makers-see-sales-fall-russia-rises-235212251.html




Fathertime!

[mendeleyev]

"Sanctions work, they really do," Kasyanov says

Russia's ex-PM Mikhail Kasyanov: Putin and his regime are severely affected by sanctions.

Very much so. It has deeply cut profit margins and forced the government to make choices on whether to buy more arms, or compensate for social services.

Despite all the talk over a year ago about Russian self reliance and sanctions being an opportunity for Russia to develop new internal markets, very little has changed. It is enough to make the Kremlin nervous and thus all the back channel pleas for dropping sanctions in exchange for cooperation in fighting terror.

That is all nice and well, but for now Putin has the cooperation of his people, plus due to corruption his Eurasian custom union leaks like a sieve, and so the products make it to shelves anyway--but at much greater prices. For now, telling the good citizens that paying thru the nose for products they used to take for granted is helping stem the tide of the evil American empire seems to remain effective.

For now, the sanctions hurt but the Kremlin can survive. Only when the oligarchs start to feel a greater sense of pain will the Kremlin feel more than nervous.

[JayH]

. Only when the oligarchs start to feel a greater sense of pain will the Kremlin feel more than nervous.

Maybe a small start?
"For the past 20 years," Potapenko, 45, told the roundtable, "the dialogue between business and authorities has been that of a butcher looking tenderly into the eyes of a cow, holding a knife at its throat and asking, 'What do we have today, beef or milk?'"

Published on 10 Dec 2015
At the Moscow Economic Forum, no one expected a sensation, but it happened. Managing Partner, Management Development Group, one of the founders of hypermarkets "Roundabout" Dmitry Potapenko accused authorities of deliberately destroying the economy by means of the product of the embargo, in an artificial devaluation of the ruble and the redistribution of the market in favor of corrupt officials. Speech Potapenko, "knocking out" their arguments trying to argue his deputy, Vladimir edinorosov Guteneva, it was a hit on the Internet.
A link to the source - http: //www.svoboda.org/media/video/27 ...

Russian Businessman Lashes Out At Kremlin, Becomes Cause Celebre

Russian entrepreneur Dmitry Potapenko's address to a recent economic roundtable in Moscow began routinely enough, with a snapshot of his retail and food businesses at home and abroad. Things escalated quickly from there.

With a Kremlin-loyal federal lawmaker looking on, the plainspoken Potapenko proceeded to upbraid the Russian government for economic policies he suggested were aimed at lining officials' pockets and strangling businesses with inspections and red tape.

The particularly blunt remarks, at the Moscow Economic Forum on December 8, provided an unvarnished glimpse of resentment and frustration on the part of business leaders that might surprise Russians more accustomed to seeing state-dominated media's glossy spin on events.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-businessman-rails-against-official-extortion/27420874.html

[JayH]

More--

The Shape Of Things To Come?
 
For Mikhail and other truckers, gradually falling living standards and now this new road tax are calling into question one of the key narratives of Putin's rule -- that he has provided the stability many Russians craved after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
 
Putin's poll ratings remain sky-high, but the truckers' protest is a sign of anger at the unravelling social contract.
 
Some Russian commentators have compared the truckers to striking miners who blocked highways in the 1990s to protest wage arrears, and some see them as a harbinger of labor unrest to come.
 


Portrait Of A Trucker: New Breed Of Russian Protester Hails From Putin's Electorate


The suspicion that they are the victims of Kremlin-sanctioned highway robbery, along with fears for their livelihood in a business in which turning a profit was already tough, have prompted thousands of Russian truckers to protest over the past two months.
 
Saying it needs more money to repair Russia's notoriously bad roads, the government imposed a levy of 1.5 rubles ($0.02) for each kilometer heavy trucks travel, effective from November 15.  It entrusted collection to a company controlled by a son of construction magnate Arkady Rotenberg, a former judo sparring partner of Putin who has landed billions of dollars in state contracts.
 
After mobilizing for a series of protests that snarled traffic in several locations across Russia's 11 time zones, scores of truckers converged on Moscow last week, grabbing public attention and raising a potentially serious new challenge for Putin from a group long at the heart of his working-class electoral base.
 
Truckers say the tax threatens to bankrupt them and harm a broad range of consumers by driving up prices for food and goods shipped by truck, adding to pressure on family budgets in a country facing economic troubles fueled by low prices for its oil exports and Western sanctions over its interference in Ukraine.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-trucker-protest-base/27417458.html

[JayH]

Exiled former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky has said that a new Russian revolution is "inevitable and necessary," and predicted President Vladimir Putin's government will be out of power within a few years.

Speaking on December 9 from London, Khodorkovsky also rejected accusations from Russian authorities of involvement in the killing of a Siberian city mayor in 1998.

Khodorkovsky's remarks at an online news conference were some of his strongest criticism of Putin since he was pardoned by the Russian president in 2013 and flown out of Russia after more than 10 years in prison.

"With the absence of fair elections and other mechanisms for a legal change of power, the only way to change things is revolution," Khodorkovsky said.

Citing an ongoing crackdown on democratic institutions and political dissent, Khodorkovsky suggested Putin had hijacked the country in a "full-fledged unconstitutional coup."

"The return to a legal space is called revolution," he said. "Revolution is inevitable and necessary."

Khodorkovsky Says New Russian Revolution 'Inevitable'


Kremlin 'Buys Loyalty'

Once Russia's richest man, Khodorkovsky was arrested in 2003 and convicted of financial crimes in trials supporters said were engineered to punish him for challenging Putin and place the assets of his oil company, Yukos, in the hands of the state.

His December 2013 pardon and release is widely seen as part of an effort by Putin to improve Russia's image ahead of the Winter Olympics in Sochi in February 2014.

Russia annexed Crimea the following month and has supported separatists in a conflict that has killed more than 9,000 people in eastern Ukraine since April 2014, leading the United States, European Union, and other Western countries to impose sanctions on Moscow.

Khodorkovsky said that Putin's government had brought Russia into international isolation.



http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-khodorkovsky-revolution/27416694.html

[BC]

(disclaimer - I just skimmed this thread)

I think what many disregard is Putin's popularity.  Yes the top 1% are screaming bloody murder but hey what's that against the rest?..  nada IMHO.

Add to that the hardiness of the RU folk as a whole, who have learned to live from the bottom up VS those that live from the top down I think Putin, as long as he has the support of the common men and women he will prevail...  after all generations of 'anti capitalism' are on his side. 

He'll ride this wave well as he has those in the past.

[Belvis]

I don't think the situation has changed much for Putin with sanctions or without.  In short:




PS. It's hard to see the shirts like those at the streets. They're rather expensive. Nevertheless the common mood is depicted quite correctly.

[mendeleyev]

BC, I do discount Putin's popularity. First, there are not many independent polling sources left so I give those numbers about the same credence as I give the Election Commission's ability to count votes. Is he popular with the common dude and dudette? Of course, but we'll never know the true numbers.

That being said, he can stay in power even with very low poll numbers as long as the has the support of those at the top. What he cannot do is remain in power if the loses that 1%. In fact, I view the new murder charges against Khodorkovsky as an insurance policy to remind that 1% to tread carefully.

Have you noticed the subtle changes in the administration recently? As an example, Sergei Ivanov has of late taken a much more visible role--kissing baby type roles, appearing at regional legislative body deliberations, and being with Putin in more and more situations. For several years his role as Chief of the Presidential Administration was almost always behind the scenes. Nowadays, his role has seen a 180% change: he is everywhere and often without Putin. He is the link to the FSB, FIS, and FSS where he remains a powerful player. A presidential decree (executive order) has made him the equivalent of something akin to a "Vice President", a de facto position (not found in the Constitution). He is the bridge between Putin and the Security services, and in my opinion he is likely Putin's eventual successor. Fluent in English and several other languages, he is viewed both inside and outside as a hardliner.

[Brasscasing]

I don't think the situation has changed much for Putin with sanctions or without.  In short:




PS. It's hard to see the shirts like those at the streets. They're rather expensive. Nevertheless the common mood is depicted quite correctly.

Ironically, you'll probably be seeing even less pro Putin shirt paraphernalia because the sanctions that aren't effecting Putin either way are holding up Turkish fabric that Russian clothing manufacturers rely on...

No Turkish Fabric Means No Anti-Turkish T-shirts

..."Russian production of T-shirts with anti-Turkish slogans has been delayed by disruptions in fabric imports from Turkey, Russian media reports said Wednesday.

Some Russian designers have offered anti-Turkish designs in response to Moscow's angry rhetoric against Ankara for the shooting down of an Su-24 bomber near the Turkish-Syrian border, and the growing anti-Turkish sentiment in the country.

The glitch? Russian clothing manufacturers rely on Turkish fabrics, and deliveries of those have been delayed amid the dispute between the two countries, designers said, independent Meduza news portal reported.

Russian News Service quoted designer Yekaterina Dobryakova as saying she was unable to start making anti-Turkish T-shirts because trucks carrying Turkish fabrics were getting detained at the border."...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/552479.html

...Comical.

Brass

[fathertime]

 

The glitch? Russian clothing manufacturers rely on Turkish fabrics, and deliveries of those have been delayed amid the dispute between the two countries, designers said, independent Meduza news portal reported.

Lots of countries make fabrics and are competing in this market, and probably for less than Turkey does. If things go down badly between the two nations, another nation will step to the plate I suspect.   


Fathertime!   

[jone]

I'm typing this on my phone and I'm not very good with my thumbs.  But I know that I am not alone scratching my head in wonder as Russia alienates another neighbor.  When my children were young there was a kid in the playbox who would kick sand at everyone.  Eventually he had the whole sandbox to himself because none of the parents would let their kids play with him. 

I look at Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics.  All of these countries are clearly wary of Russia.  Russia wants its sphere of influence.  Clearly it has created a 'Sphere of Enemies'.

I guess that is what Merkel foresaw when she said that Putin was out of his mind.  For you non native English speakers, like Belvis, it means she thinks he is crazy.

[Gator]

I look at Turkey, Poland, Ukraine, the Baltics.  All of these countries are clearly wary of Russia.  Russia wants its sphere of influence.  Clearly it has created a 'Sphere of Enemies'.

Not to worry, there is always the opportunity for a relationship with North Korea. 

[Brasscasing]

Lots of countries make fabrics and are competing in this market, and probably for less than Turkey does. If things go down badly between the two nations, another nation will step to the plate I suspect.   

I suppose if you'd actually read the link I provided instead of rushing to post your vacuous comment you'd have also seen these quotes from two Russian designers further down the article...

...“I had no plans to make T-shirts with the theme of war, or even a political theme, but the trucks have indeed been stopped, and very soon we won't be able to sew, because all Russian fabric suppliers are working with Turkey, and we have no domestic alternative,” she said."...

..."Another designer, Alexander Konasov — who offers anti-Turkish shirt designs on his website — said Turkey was a “monopolist” on Russia's fabrics market, Russian News Service reported."...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/552479.html

Now, do you actually believe that if the Russian clothing/apparel industry could import their fabric cheaper from elsewhere they wouldn't have done so before now?

They may be able to hammer out some new deals with the Asian market (the European fabric industry is already out because of Russian counter sanctions) sometime in the future but that takes time and just the shipping alone is going to cost them more.

I've lain on the beach at the Turkish/Georgian border at Sarpi and watched the dozens of Turk transport trucks making that crossing daily heading for points North including Russia.

There's no way Russian manufacture's are going to be able to import fabric from further abroad for less cost.

Brass

[jone]

Brass,

Funny you should mention this.....

My area of business activity in Russia was Ivanovo.  It is the fabric capital of Russia.  (It is also considered to be the City of Brides, due to the massive influx of female workers for the looms.)   When I asked, one time, what they did with their fabric, they mentioned the internal consumption and Turkey.  The simple fact is that Russia cannot manufacture fabrics cheaper than other outlets, like India and China.

I will make one comment though.  The pictures displayed by Belvis do focus on one absolutely stellar export that Russia does have.  And that is their beautiful women.  I was talking with my fiancee today and she said that out of her friends in her home, probably 1/3 of the women will seek foreign men for marriage.  I asked why that was so and she said it was simply because they wanted a better life.

We do spend a lot of time in Russia.  I enjoy it.  But the standard of living in Russia does not compare to that of Western Countries. 

I have previously shared pictures of my fiancee who I think is spectacular.  (I will be one of the guys with a disporportionately hot wife.)  She thinks of herself as average, but with a flair for style.   We often time look at pictures of her with her friends.  She fits right in, and so, in her mind, is just one of the gals.

[fathertime]

I suppose if you'd actually read the link I provided instead of rushing to post your vacuous comment you'd have also seen these quotes from two Russian designers further down the article...
 

I wasn't commenting on your link but rather your typical vacuous comments. 

Now, do you actually believe that if the Russian clothing/apparel industry could import their fabric cheaper from elsewhere they wouldn't have done so before now?


There's no way Russian manufacture's are going to be able to import fabric from further abroad for less cost.

Brass

If you weren't in such a rush to comment on my comment you would have noticed that I didn't say Russia was going to import fabric for less.  I did say that other countries can make fabric for less than Turkey, and I believe that to be an accurate statement.   


Fathertime!   

[Belvis]

I have previously shared pictures of my fiancee who I think is spectacular.  (I will be one of the guys with a disporportionately hot wife.)  She thinks of herself as average, but with a flair for style.   We often time look at pictures of her with her friends.  She fits right in, and so, in her mind, is just one of the gals.

Your fiancee is a clever gal as I may judge her by what she was saying. You'll learn too about FSU women way of thinking. I wish her a lucky hunting 

I guess that is what Merkel foresaw when she said that Putin was out of his mind.  For you non native English speakers, like Belvis, it means she thinks he is crazy.

Putin would be disappointed of Merkel's words if he has intentions to marry her. Clearly, this is not the case so he's not going to change the behaviour to be a good boy .

[mendeleyev]

Belvis, you do realize that Putin and Merkel go back a very long ways to their time in East Germany, right?

You do understand that they have been very, very close friends for a very, very long time, right?

You do understand that she speaks flawless Russian, right?

You do understand that he speaks flawless German, right?

You do remember that for years (until Crimea) she has been the guest of honour at each annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, sitting close to, if not next to him, right?

We agree that he enjoys his bad boy image now that Ludmila (a very nice lady) is out of the picture. He is certainly not going to abandon a certain young Olympic athlete and their young children down in Sochi in exchange for Angela anytime soon.

But, that does not mean that they do not have a very closely shared past.

[sleepycat]

Huilo's lips in the picture looks strange...
Has the midget taken to wearing lipstick now?

[JayH]

As the new year begins, both Ukraine and Russia are making steady progress. The difference is that, while Ukraine is slowly, and more or less surely, adopting a raft of systemic reforms that will make it a normal Western market democracy, Russia is becoming a failed state. If current trends continue, as they probably will, Russia may even disappear.

Putin is Steering Russia to Collapse


Unless it changes fundamentally, Russia will fail as a state. Which is to say that Putin has, within a few short years, managed to transform a stable polity into a failing state. How? Above all, by means of an ill-advised, criminal invasion of Ukraine. What was supposed to be a quick, glorious, little war has become a disaster—for Russia. Give the man another year or two and his current grade of C will, as Russia collapses and chaos envelopes its unfortunate population, become an F.



http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/putin-steering-russia-collapse

[JayH]

It seems that everyday writers are getting at key issues of understanding Putins motivation.Ideas not new here on RWD as they have been countenanced here long ago and during the invasion of Aground is different is how much clearer much of this is now.
The trolls that are used to create confusion and promote alternative scenario's cannot get the traction previously seen ( Boethius is very big holiday time in FSU- anyone else notice the absence here on RWD of some posters of ludicrous material in this period??)
 
"In order to keep the country mobilized around the cause of confronting the West, such revelations have to be stopped and the voices of dissent must be silenced. The murder of Boris Normative last February was supposed to shock the liberal opposition into despair, and Putin practically admitted that conspiracy by suggesting in his interfaith press conference that IT is not a given that [Nemtsov] was murdered” (Moscow Echo, December 30, 2015). The opposition, however, refuses to be cowed and is determined to demonstrate that Putin’s regime is too corrupt and enfeebled by a senseless squandering of resources to execute large-scale repressions. Russia at the start of 2016 is stuck in the Ukraine stalemate and trapped in the Syrian intervention; but most fundamentally, it is caught in the conflict of governance, where every decision aimed at strengthening the regime undermines its support base and depletes resources necessary for basic functions of the state. The rulers have not only lost touch with reality—they seemingly no longer believe it even exists."




Russian Strategy Seeks to Defy Economic Decline With Military Bravado

The only way to ensure an affirmative answer is to sell to the masses the idea that they must be ready to endure hardships in order to uphold Russia’s greatness. Thus, the new Strategy aims at protecting Russia’s “cultural sovereignty” by blocking external “destructive informational-psychologic influence.” No useful tools exist yet for policing the Internet, however; and the vicious TV propaganda is becoming stale and tiresome (Meduza.io, December 24, 2015). As the chain of crisis situations increasingly becomes the new norm, Russians tend to lose interest in Syrian adventures or missile defences and start to ponder their deteriorating quality of life (Gazeta.ru, December 30, 2015). Revelations of hyper-corruption in the highest echelons of law enforcement, which a year ago made no impression, have again started to produce angry resonance in public opinion (Rbc.ru, December 24, 2015).



http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=44937&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=7&cHash=4603a0dfada52c44cfc8b7a7565c363c#.VoyuP_mLTIV