More Bad News for Russia

[Anathema]

Yeah, it'll be "interesting".  Hell, I hope I'm wrong.  FTurkey.  Let them fight each other to exhaustion.  I'll root for both sides.

I'm not sure how to embed youtube videos here (or if we even can) but here's a video showing the Turks shooting the Russians.



ETA: Guess it automatically embeds them.

[BdHvA]

While I am not supportive of Russia in there actions. War is ugly and only rarely does it solve problems.

[AkMike]

Russia is going to pizz of Turkey more and they'll close off Russian shipping to the Black Sea. They're already at issues because of the treatment of the Crimean Tartars.

[sleepycat]

I'm not sure how to embed youtube videos here (or if we even can) but here's a video showing the Turks shooting the Russians.



ETA: Guess it automatically embeds them.

That reminds me of the cliché: shooting fish in a barrel.

[BillyB]

War is ugly and only rarely does it solve problems.

When diplomatic means are exhausted when solving disputes, war is the last means. There are usually more losers than winners after war but the winners won't be the ones complaining.

[AkMike]

The South Stream gas line thru Turkey from Russia seems to be a dead issue now. Turkey is miffed at Russia.. 

[AkMike]

Turkey can close the Bosporus to Russian ships.

You'll need to use a translator to read, but it's interesting.

http://nuina.net/turcyja-mozhet-zakryt-bosfor-dlja-korablej-rossyy/

[fathertime]

Russia is going to pizz of Turkey more and they'll close off Russian shipping to the Black Sea. They're already at issues because of the treatment of the Crimean Tartars.

For all we know the event was somewhat orchestrated in order to give the respective sides a reason to meet and compromise OR allow one side to save face. 


Fathertime!   

[mendeleyev]

The Russian pilot was given 10 warnings before Turkish prime minster Davutoglu gave the clearance to fire. This incident came after repeated protests by the Turks over a periods of months. They have taken the diplomatic route via foreign ministries, and it was discussed during president Erdoğan's visit to Moscow in October. Moscow was on notice, but deliberately chose to shrug it off.

Russian pilots are not allowed to make the same sort of independent decisions and respond to events as are most Western counterparts. I'm guessing that the pilot and commander were sacrificed because first, the protocol to respond takes too long in Russia's outdated command and control military. They were also sacrificed because the Kremlin didn't believe that Turkey would pull the trigger.

However, Russia will use this to justify a build-up in Syria with the advanced anti aircraft technology that they have already been installing. Now they can do it in the open. Convenient.

[AkMike]

It sure sucks to be in Crimea now. 


Enterprises stopped, electric transport out of service, fuel and candles in short supply: Crimea blackout. PHOTOS


Russia-occupied Crimea has been left without power. Electricity is on for several hours daily. Street lights and electric transport is out of service in cities. Internet is operating extremely poorly.

This is reported by blogger Ilya Varlamov in his Livejournal account, Censor.NET informs.

 People barely believe in statements by the Ukrainian power companies that electricity will be on in a few days. Citizens are squirreling food supplies, candles, power units, and fuel.

 Internet is on in Simferopol's downtown only.

 Due to the blackout, foods have started to spoil in stores. The problem is that food supplies have been disrupted, for nothing is imported from the mainland Ukraine, and Russia is not able to reach Crimea through Kerch due to bad weather. Earlier, there were some hopes for Turkey, but yesterday all the contacts with them were halted.

 The largest plants of the peninsula have stopped operating. It will definitely cause a shortage in the budget.

http://en.censor.net.ua/photo_news/362399/enterprises_stopped_electric_transport_out_of_service_fuel_and_candles_in_short_supply_crimea_blackout

[Brasscasing]

And the Obama/Kerry final insult to the American people and by extension the civilized world...

Iran Nuclear Deal Is Not ‘Legally Binding,’ Obama Administration Admits

..."The nuclear deal agreed upon in July by the P5+1 world powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) and the Islamic Republic of Iran has no “legally binding” basis. The deal, paraded by President Obama as a surefire measure to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, is held together simply as a “political commitment” by the parties to the accord, the State Department admitted in a recent letter."...

www.breitbart.com

Iran Nuclear Deal Isn't A Bad Deal After All; It's No Deal

..."Nuclear Charade: The Obama administration admits to Congress that its nuclear pact with Iran has not been signed by the Iranian regime and has no legal force. Obama's "tough diplomacy" is puff diplomacy."...

news.investors.com

Iran didn't sign the nuclear deal - and it isn't legally binding



..."The Iranian regime did not sign the nuclear deal negotiated earlier this year, and the deal itself is not legally binding - that's according to an astonishing letter sent by the US State Department to Congressmen Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.) last week."...

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/203986#.VliAfpuFPMw

Nuclear Deal: Iran Will Not Comply Until Commitments Are Met, Says Foreign Minister



..."Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi said Thursday that before Iran complies with the nuclear deal, nuclear inspectors must close their investigation into possible military dimensions of its nuclear program."...

http://www.hngn.com/articles/154352/20151126/nuclear-deal-iran-will-comply-until-commitments-met-foreign-minister.htm

Just look at the grins on the faces of these two terrorist leaders...You betcha, boys, your nuclear breakout is now guaranteed.

Bet you're thinking "Too bad Obama doesn't have another term in office...we'd rule the world with one or two more of these scam "historic" agreements like the one we just pulled here". 

Brass

 

 

[fathertime]

And the Obama/Kerry final insult to the American people and by extension the civilized world...

Iran Nuclear Deal Is Not ‘Legally Binding,’ Obama Administration Admits

..."The nuclear deal agreed upon in July by the P5+1 world powers (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China) and the Islamic Republic of Iran has no “legally binding” basis. The deal, paraded by President Obama as a surefire measure to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, is held together simply as a “political commitment” by the parties to the accord, the State Department admitted in a recent letter."...

www.breitbart.com

Iran Nuclear Deal Isn't A Bad Deal After All; It's No Deal

..."Nuclear Charade: The Obama administration admits to Congress that its nuclear pact with Iran has not been signed by the Iranian regime and has no legal force. Obama's "tough diplomacy" is puff diplomacy."...

news.investors.com

Iran didn't sign the nuclear deal - and it isn't legally binding



..."The Iranian regime did not sign the nuclear deal negotiated earlier this year, and the deal itself is not legally binding - that's according to an astonishing letter sent by the US State Department to Congressmen Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.) last week."...

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/203986#.VliAfpuFPMw

Nuclear Deal: Iran Will Not Comply Until Commitments Are Met, Says Foreign Minister



..."Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araqchi said Thursday that before Iran complies with the nuclear deal, nuclear inspectors must close their investigation into possible military dimensions of its nuclear program."...

http://www.hngn.com/articles/154352/20151126/nuclear-deal-iran-will-comply-until-commitments-met-foreign-minister.htm

Just look at the grins on the faces of these two terrorist leaders...You betcha, boys, your nuclear breakout is now guaranteed.

Bet you're thinking "Too bad Obama doesn't have another term in office...we'd rule the world with one or two more of these scam "historic" agreements like the one we just pulled here". 

Brass

Everything is still fine. 
 


Fathertime! 

[tfcrew]

Oh no! Oh no!
Not the nuclear deal thread again

[AkMike]

Most Russians believe country in economic crisis – poll

The proportion of Russians talking of an economic crisis in their country has risen to 72% from 68% in August, according to the Public Opinion foundation.

Fifteen per cent said there is no crisis in Russia (17% in August), while 12% of respondents could not answer, according to the findings of a poll conducted among 1,500 respondents in 104 towns in 53 Russian regions on November 21-22.

Of those talking of the crisis, 41% see it manifested in the increase in prices and inflation; 22% in falling living standards, low wages and pensions; and 16%, in unemployment and job cuts.

When describing their financial situation, 38% Russians said they have enough money for clothes but not for major household appliances; 27% have money for food but not for clothes.

The share of people with not enough money for food is 14% now and was 9% in August.

Yet another 17% of Russians have money for household appliances, but not enough to buy a car. Those can afford to buy a car account for 5%.

Overall, two-thirds of respondents (61%) have rated their financial situation as average (65% in August) and about one-third (31%) as bad (24% in August). That their finances are good was claimed by 7% of respondents (9% in August).

According to 34% of Russians, next year their financial situation will remain practically unchanged. Twelve per cent believe things will improve, 30% are pessimistic, and 23% could not make any prediction.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/307514.html

[Brasscasing]

Everything is still fine. 
 

For those that place their allegiance and declare their homage to the terrorist cause I'm sure it is.

Brass

[AkMike]

Moldova Arrests 13 Accused of Plotting to Establish Russian Separatist Republic

By Tess Owen

November 26, 2015 | 11:08 am

A plot to attack Moldova's capital and establish a Russian separatist republic similar to the ones in Eastern Ukraine was reportedly foiled on Thursday when Moldovan police detained 13 suspected members of a paramilitary group.

Moldova's General Police Inspectorate said the group wanted to attack state buildings in the capital Chisinau and seize control of Balti, a city approximately 120 kilometers due north that has a majority Russian population. The group allegedly planned to storm the prison in Balti and release sympathetic prisoners that they felt could be recruited for further attacks on Balti state officials and private companies.

Police said the suspected ringleader of the group is from Eastern Ukraine, the Associated Press reported.

Related: Romania Is Starting to Freak Out About Russian Designs on Transnistria

When the conflict in Ukraine began in 2014, some political analysts feared the unrest would spill over the border into Moldova, one of the poorest countries in Europe. A sliver of land alongside its Ukrainian border known as Transnistria or Trans-Dniester remains a pro-Russian separatist region, which has tentatively maintained a ceasefire with Moldova's capital since 1992.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Moldova to join the Moscow-dominated Eurasian economic union he is planning, which he sees as having the potential to rival the strength of the European Union. When Moldova teetered toward reaching an association agreement with the European Union two years ago, Russia retaliated by banning the import of Moldovan wine, one of the country's major exports.

  For more of the story..

http://news.vice.com/article/moldova-arrests-13-accused-of-plotting-to-establish-russian-separatist-republic

[jone]

I read a few policy papers.  This one caught my eye.  It states things rather simply.

http://bruegel.org/2015/10/the-systemic-roots-of-russias-recession/

Of particular interest were the comments following the link.  I had some conversations recently with people that were former investors in Russia.  They think that the business climate is hostage to the ongoing rule that whoever has the best political connections will override any honest business dealings.  Especially with Americans.

As a side note, those who read my recent trip report from Kazakhstan will recall that the Kazakhs instituted visa free travel for Americans for the first 15 days of their visit.  The reason that they did this is because of the huge amount of investment that America did (and continues to do) in Kazakhstan in recent history.  Russia currently has no such friendly investors.

[fathertime]

For those that place their allegiance and declare their homage to the terrorist cause I'm sure it is.

Brass

You are incorrect, things are not that good for terrorists, at least the ones in the Middle East....But in terms of the Iran/Major powers nuke deal, things are fine, despite your around the clock hand-wringing. 


Fathertime! 

[JayH]

I read a few policy papers.  This one caught my eye.  It states things rather simply.

http://bruegel.org/2015/10/the-systemic-roots-of-russias-recession/

Of particular interest were the comments following the link.  I had some conversations recently with people that were former investors in Russia.  They think that the business climate is hostage to the ongoing rule that whoever has the best political connections will override any honest business dealings.  Especially with Americans.

As a side note, those who read my recent trip report from Kazakhstan will recall that the Kazakhs instituted visa free travel for Americans for the first 15 days of their visit.  The reason that they did this is because of the huge amount of investment that America did (and continues to do) in Kazakhstan in recent history.  Russia currently has no such friendly investors.

As interesting as the article is in itself-the comments section is more so.


danram • a month ago
Nobody in their right mind would invest in Russia right now. It would be no less than insane to invest any money into a country where, at the drop of a hat, someone who has better political connections and deeper pockets than you do can use the organs of the state to steal your investment,

Today's Russia is a fetid cesspool of lies, oppression, and corruption. It is a "mafia state" in every sense of the word, held together by the "don" at the top, Vladimir Putin. Truth and justice hold no meaning in Russia.

Far from "engaging with Russia" as many predictably weak-kneed western politicians want to do, the west should put the screws to this odious regime in every way possible so as to more speedily bring about its demise.
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bandarlogtorpedo  danram • 2 days ago
You could insert Obama's America into your analysis and come up roses, by another name.
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califguy  danram • 21 days ago
Totally isolate Russia for six months and it will disintegrate into many smaller regional entities along religious, political, ethnic and geographic fault lines.

The West should recognize those entities as independent and sovereign states and offer them economic and political support.

There is a distinct possibility that some of the new entities may become failed states and become a hotbed for terrorism, but by large, most of them will become peaceful states and nations.

The net result will be that the world would be a better and safer place without "Mother Russia".
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Anjaan Aadmi  califguy • 15 days ago
Only if wish had the wings to fly ... !! ... Russia is a nuclear, space and energy super power, which has seen many downs in its history ... Russia is here to stay, whether you like it or not ... !!
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Arbuthnaught • a month ago
This article several times mentions "Russia's excellent human capital." Several other articles have mentioned an accelerating brain drain. The bad economic climate plus the mafia state in Russia is a perfect storm for a brain drain. Unless things turn around fast, " those with get up and go are going to get up and go," in ever increasing numbers. Putin is ideologically hostile to the policy solutions necessary to fix any of the major problems facing Russia.
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bandarlogtorpedo • 2 days ago
"The Russian economy grew rapidly between 2000 and 2007, but growth decelerated after the 2008-09 global financial crisis." I wonder if it pisses Putin off that the POTUS was a street soldier in the fight for "affordable housing" that led inexorably to the international default on mortgage derivatives that tanked the international economy? He has a righteous grudge.
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nwberger • 9 days ago
Russia has been a shit country for centuries. Even recently when they've had a choice to get rational government and politics they decided to idolize yet another tyrant. They think that the tyrant will tyrannize others for the glory of Russia. Here's an eye opener: there has never been true Russian glory. Also, the Russians themselves are the ones who finally get tyrannized as in the Tsars, Lenin, Stalin and coming up, barechested Vlad. Squashing Georgia and Crimea isn't power. Losing 25 million people in WW2 was not a great victory. Insulting Obama, though justified, isn't power nor even glory. The reason these actions are applauded in Russia is because Russia is one big garbage pit and even a bully-like victory lifts their sorry souls. If Russia was to be a 'good investment' it'd be the first time in its history. A bad bet to make.
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JTR • 24 days ago
This is not a helpful article at all. It ignores the real problems that underlie all of the data and issues discussed--the fact that Russia is a Kleptocracy. You can't talk about "the private section" in any meaningful way in Russia when it consists almost entirely of Putin, his circle and their minions. Saying that half of Gazprom's shares are held by the state makes it seem like the other half are held by normal investors. Not so. To say that what happened to Shell was "downsizing of shares" is a euphemism so grotesque it would make Oceania's Ministry of Truth blush with shame. If Breugel is not going to offer truthful analysis out of fear of Russia's reaction to what you publish, it would best to remain silent.
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ttaerum • a month ago
Ah yes... the author an advisor in "Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Egypt, Georgia, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, Moldova, Mongolia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Syria, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan and Yemen"... one struggles to imagine what that actually means. Russia has a resource based economy (oil and rare earth) - as illustrated by the dip in 2009 and the present worldwide economic slowdown. We see no figures on investment, nor its historical relationship to world wide economic growth (which is a central argument in the article). What is the point?
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James Hayward • a month ago
It is a "mafia state" in every sense of the word, held together by the
"don" at the top, Vladimir Putin. Truth and justice hold no meaning in

[calmissile]

JayH,

Nice summary.  Putin is about to put it dick in the squeezer.  Of course our feclus president doesn't have the brains to take advantage of it.

[JayH]

JayH,

.  Putin is about to put it dick in the squeezer. 

Funny that you just wrote that-see next story linked.
Placing pressure on the Russian system was never a short term exercise to make Russians see reality --and now the results will be shown soon.

I have always  had it in my mind that Putin's craziness in pumping crazy nationalism with his invasion of Ukraine was a diversionary strategy that drew attention away from the financial incompetence( and the kleptocracy) over a long period of time.

[JayH]

$30 Oil?

As predicted here  some time ago- it is now imminent--with all the pressures and the economic crisis it will create in Russia.

Russia has learned to live with oil near $40 and only a decline to $30 a barrel can provoke another deterioration, which isn’t the most likely scenario, Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin said Nov. 25. The central bank estimates that in a stress-case scenario, with crude below $40 in 2016-2018, the economy will contract 5 percent or more next year and price growth may be at 7 percent to 9 percent. That would also raise risks to inflation and financial stability, according to the Bank of Russia.
GDP will contract 3.9 percent to 4.4 percent this year and may shrink as much as 1 percent next year if oil stays at $50 a barrel, the central bank forecasts.
“The second leg down in oil prices and likely further capital outflows will add more pressures to Russia’s ailing economy,” said Nerijus Maciulis, chief economist at Swedbank AB in Vilnius, Lithuania. “The next wound will open up on banks’ balance sheets -- non-performing loans are set to rise much further and will further drain public funds.”


The $30 Oil Cliff Threatening Russia's Economy

For Russia, $30 is the number to watch.
Crude prices at that level will push the economy to depths that would threaten the nation’s financial system, according to 63 percent of respondents in a Bloomberg survey. Lower prices for the fuel are next year’s biggest risk for Russia, which is unprepared to ride out another shock on the oil market, most economists said. Other dangers for 2016 include geopolitics, strains in the banking industry and the ruble, according to the poll of 27 analysts.
“If oil prices fall lower and stay at that low level for longer, risks of fiscal and financial destabilization increase significantly,” Sergey Narkevich, an analyst at PAO Promsvyazbank in Moscow, said by e-mail.
Russia, which has adjusted to the worst commodities slump in a generation with spending cutbacks and a weaker ruble, may be hard-pressed for policy answers if the slump in oil prices deepens after a drop of 37 percent in the past year. While Brent, the European benchmark, is trading around $45 a barrel, a warmer-than-average winter could weaken heating-fuel demand enough to trigger a decline in the price of crude to $20, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note Nov. 18.
OPEC Persistence
Oil has dropped as U.S. inventories climbed to near a record and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced above its quota. OPEC, which meets to discuss policy Dec. 4 in Vienna, is set to stick with its strategy of defending market share by maintaining output and driving down higher-cost production elsewhere, according to all 30 analysts and traders in a separate Bloomberg survey.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-29/the-30-oil-cliff-that-economists-see-threatening-russia-in-2016

[JayH]

Russia's economic decline this year is often attributed to low oil prices. Yet Russia has performed considerably worse than most of its oil-exporting peers, so there must be another reason.


Putin Doesn't Mind Oil's Fall

Oil-exporting countries that are doing better than Russia fall into three groups. The first includes highly diversified economies such as Malaysia or Canada. Russia could have worked harder on diversification while oil was expensive, but it missed the chance. Another group includes countries such as Norway, United Arab Emirates and Qatar, with huge foreign reserves and negative net debt positions -- meaning they are owed a lot of money. Russia had a chance to do that, too, but only saved up enough to last a couple of years at the current oil price -- which explains why it would rather let the ruble devalue indefinitely than use the reserves to defend the currency. Members of the third group -- Bolivia, Azerbaijan and some others -- have tried to soften the blow while making their financial situation more precarious and hoping for a price recovery. Russia could have done that, too, but it wouldn't have been prudent given Putin's sense that he was defending his country against a hostile West.

Some oil exporters -- Venezuela and Nigeria, for example -- are inept when it comes to economic policy. That isn't the case with Russia: It just has a leader who doesn't prioritize the economy or care too much about living standards as long as the population is enthusiastic about his quest for a bigger geopolitical role. Russia is unique among oil exporters as a nation that is being milked for the sake of one man's grand vision. If oil prices go up, the vision will be more lavishly funded


http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-11-26/putin-doesn-t-mind-oil-s-fall

[fathertime]

$30 Oil?

As predicted here  some time ago- it is now imminent--with all the pressures and the economic crisis it will create in Russia.

 

On this website not only was 30 dollar oil wrongfully predicted, but also 20 dollar oil was also wrongfully predicted.  To this point, 40 dollar oil is where it has leveled off at, and 30 dollar oil would require another 25% drop.


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

   Of course our feclus president doesn't have the brains to take advantage of it.

Always humorous when this happens....




What would be suggested that Obama do to take advantage?


Fathertime!