The Struggle For Ukraine

[Hammer2722]

I've also now seen that conscripts are receiving summons at 3 am and given three hours to pack.

Not surprising. This why why the referendum is being conducted. By claiming the occupied areas as Russian territory the govt. can now legally deploy any and all conscripts in those territories and even into combat....

[Trenchcoat]

Here's a couple of comments from Russian Telegram,regarding the 300,000 new recruits.


"The first wave,who arrived in Khabarovsk, are flying back to Yakutsk.Many are unfit due to health and age.Those who stay are taken to the military unit.
In Khabarovsk, they are shocked that Yakutia is sending everyone indiscriminately."


"The military prosecutor's office is carrying checks in some regions against individuals involved in mobilisation,with subsequent prosecution.To get the numbers ,they recruited blind,deaf,and even those who did not serve,and in addition the old ones ".


Nope i'm not hearing about any new elite stormtroopers itching to get at the Ukrainian forces 

I doubt it's about elite stormtroopers it's more about an en-masse mobilization to get the numbers up. Sure some will be too old/unfit for anything, some will only be good to train others or work in support operations. I pretty much expect that there will be another mobilization announced after the annexation when Ukrainian forces continue to push you in. Putler will declare it an act of war and declare war himself enabling him to conscript a lot of men, these will be untrained men, young men, the unemployed (possibly as a result of the effect on Russia's economy) and possibly a whole age range call up with possible get outs or not. They'll then give those guys rudimentary training shove whatever weapon they can find probably Kalashnikov's into their hands and shove them to the front. Odds are Russia will buy any extra small arms from China or North Korea it needs. Again it's not really about 'quality' of forces we're talking here but 'quantity'. If you outnumber the enemy by 10-1 that means you can have ten men charging at each Ukrainian soldier. Odds are it's going to be difficult for that Ukrainian soldiers to kill all 8,9 or 10 of them before they get to him. Then of course there may be chemical weapons or WMD's of all sorts used before Russian forces go it to mop up.

I would like to believe it's going to end up a pathetic farce as it may at the moment look but I just think that Ukraine shouldn't underestimate a farcical looking enemy in case it suddenly turns out otherwise.

[John Gaunt]

I agree with this, Russia is manipulating the situation via the fake Referendums to try and get more forces to the front. It knows it needs way more troops than the initial invasion force it used to overcome Ukraine's forces. I think you're right that Belarus probably won't try to avoid getting dragged in if it sees that Moscow is throwing a lot more troops into the battle and thinks its own input will likely sway matters there. If Belarus attacks from the north then they can strike down towards Lviv. That's a whole new front that Ukraine will have to turn and protect against.

Ukraine has already lost a lot of troops in this war as well as Russia. Ukraine likely has reserves it can call up but aside fro m troop training in the west these will likely be largely untrained and inexperienced troops who will likely need at least quick rudimentary training and mixing in with more experienced troops. Possibly may be as many as 100,000 or so before they've got to turn to the population at large and constript into the army all those it had not, those who already had jobs elsewhere, the less willing to fight, etc. Questions are always abound of whether enough guns exist, rudimentary training availability in such circumstances. Odds are they will be just given a gun and dumped into a trench or similar to try to hold the ground, unfortunately becoming cannon fodder by default in such circumstances. If I was Ukraine, if they haven't already I would mobilize such troops now and get whatever rudimentary training and guns in while they can. They probably won't have much time before the 300,000 arrive and again I think Putler will call up more men in addition to the 300,000 once he annexes Ukrainian territory and Ukraine counterattacks into it. In addition to any CSTO forces he will likely declare it war and hence be able to call up more men in Russia which he will likely do.

The worst thing Ukraine can do at the moment is become complacent over its victories to date. Odds are it is on the verge of facing a massive Russian Army being formed and it needs to get all the men it can to the front to avoid being overwhelmed by force if numbers alone. This may indeed be the most deadly phase of the conflict so far. The west will have to ensure that Ukraine has the small arms it's needs to counter as well as whatever chemical warfare measures are possible. Underestimating Russia at this juncture I feel is both likely and of course fatal to Ukraine.

A few weeks ago a high up British warrant officer in the British Army told troops go see loved ones, priests, etc and prepare to go to war (in Ukraine). It sounded like troops may be in the process of mobilizing to be sent out to Ukraine to fight. That I found an unusual prospect as generally this has been a proxy war with denials issued early on by western nations/NATO that they would be sending troops. However likely they may have had worked out early on from now how Putler would likely play matters and might now be ready to send troops knowing that Ukraine alone might be hard pressed to fend off a massive Russian/CSTO army by itself. The west knows that neither itself nor Russia will use nukes on each other so it's largely down to a ground warfare conflict and it could likely become a free for all for whoever wanting to take part doing so. I think in the next few days & weeks we will likely see this all slotting into place. I as ever am focusing strategically on the dating aspect of this all

The bolded bit tells all one needs to know regarding your knowledge of matters military.

[Chelseaboy]

The orcs have now started selling their military equipment to Ukrainian forces...


Russian soldiers sold several armoured vehicles to the Ukrainian Army in Vyskopillya area.


The exchange happened in early September without incident.


This comes from the head of the Mykolaiv administration.

[Trenchcoat]

The bolded bit tells all one needs to know regarding your knowledge of matters military.

I know warrant officer's are not particularly high up the pecking order but among warrant officer's he was highly positioned and respected. That he went to pass such info onto the soldiers around him likely suggests that there may be something to it.

Who knows maybe Russia'a army is as busted as it currently looks. That would indeed be an interesting situation but I'm not totally convinced that we've seen the whole deal here. I think that potentially Putler may try to win this war on a numbers basis and/or whatever else he can find to use that might grant him victory. There's no backing out for him as if he tries that he knows he is finished anyway so he'll likely push it with all that he can.

[Chelseaboy]

Horrendous day for the Russian Air Force in the last 24 hours.


SU-25,Two SU-30,SU-34 all shot down in Ukraine.

[Bee Farmer]

Russia has an equivalent to Article 5 with CSTO members. Attacking 'liberated' territories post-referenda may lead to Russia requesting support from CSTO members.

Fearmongering BS.  Russia isn't going to nuke Ukraine or demand other countries enter the war over the sham referendums or attacks on illegally annexed territories.  Quit trying to go down that rabbithole.  It ain't gonna happen.

Are you forgetting that Russia held sham referendums and illegally annexed Crimea?  There's been attacks on Crimea during this war.

No nukes, no mobilizing other countries, etc.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukraine now has NASAMS.

[Bee Farmer]

People dying in NATO from a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine would depend on where the strike is and the prevailing winds at the time.


Kiev is 431 miles/693km from Poland as the radiation blows.

How long will it take the radiation to kill them?  50 years?

Look at Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  It was only people within a few miles of ground zero who died.

400 miles from ground zero?  You're pretty safe.

But if Putin uses a nuke, he's not going to be dropping Tsar Bomba on Kyiv.  If Russia was going to use a nuke in Ukraine, it would probably be a high altitude EMP nuke to wipe out electronics.  No deaths. No radiation.

Personally, I don't think knocking out US satellites over Ukraine would be considered an Article 5 attack on a Nato country.  The citizens don't have the stomach to go to war over a few satellites going down.

[Jumper1]

While an emp is more likely , whats the odds russia will risk what coulds be confused at time of launch or detonation?

Huge risk.

[Faux Pas]

I think you're both grasping at straws. It's not radiation drift clouds or an EMP to be concerned about. If Putin launches an nuclear attack you can rest assure it's going to be a radiation blast at a population center for maximum effect. My guess would be London. We should all be worried that such an attack can easily happen and be attributed to Putin. Once the first one is triggered, no matter who does it likely many more will follow coming from places not even involved in the Ukraine conflict.

[Chelseaboy]

I've been thinking for quite some time that Russia is as likely to fire a nuke at a destination other than Ukraine.


I didn't post my thoughts as i didn't want to be thought of as an alarmist.


It could be London or it could be where he perceives the biggest threat to his ambitions is,and the biggest source of Ukrainian opposition to him...the USA.


Hitting London would still leave Russia open to huge retaliation from the USA.Hitting the USA in the right places would crush the opposition in his mind i suspect.

[ML]

I read . . . don't know where, but probably Wall Street Journal . . . that USA has 2 nuclear subs in Atlantic and 2 nuclear subs in Pacific with enough nuclear bombs to destroy every major Russian city.

I am sure the ruskies know this also.

[Chelseaboy]

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on Sunday that the US would respond decisively to any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine,and that it had spelled out to Moscow the "catastrophic consequences"it would face.


"If Russia crosses this line ,there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia.The United States will respond decisively ".

[Chelseaboy]

Reports ( there is gruesome video on Telegram ) of a failed orc counter offensive at Kupyansk.


Reports are fresh conscripts ( presumably from the 300,000 ),no body armour,lightly armed,charged Ukrainian lines head-on,no tactics,it was a massacre.


I have seen video of one orc survivor...young guy lying on his back and crying his eyes out...blubbing something in orcishness.


I doubt the Stalingrad tactics will work for the orcs in Ukraine..especially when the temperatures hit -20 to -30 there in the winter,as i'm not seeing them being supplied with winter clothing.


If NATO draws this out i foresee millions of orcs being massacred in UKraine...maybe that's the plan...to make them extinct.


A shortage of working-age men will leave Russian industry on it's knees.



Looks like there will be a huge shortage of Russian men for you to compete against,  if you fancy your chances in Russia, when this war eventually ends Trench.

[Bee Farmer]

A shortage of working-age men will leave Russian industry on it's knees.

What industry?  lol

Actually, Russia does have some industry...and almost all of it is in Kaliningrad.

From what I can tell, it appears that Russia is getting conscripts from remote, impoverished rural areas.  These aren't the guys who would have worked in industry anyways.

[Chelseaboy]

What industry?  lol

Actually, Russia does have some industry...and almost all of it is in Kaliningrad.

From what I can tell, it appears that Russia is getting conscripts from remote, impoverished rural areas.  These aren't the guys who would have worked in industry anyways.

I have a female contact in St Petersburg.


She has male friends who've been receiving mobilisation summons at their places of work.

[Hammer2722]

I read . . . don't know where, but probably Wall Street Journal . . . that USA has 2 nuclear subs in Atlantic and 2 nuclear subs in Pacific with enough nuclear bombs to destroy every major Russian city.

I am sure the ruskies know this also.

I served 20yrs in the Navy. All of them in the Trident SSBN service. One Trident sub can carry 24 missiles with each missile with the capacity to hold 7 MIRVs. One Trident sub alone (mind you that there are at least 15 Tridents in service) can level pretty much all major Russian cities. Any kind of Nuclear attack by anyone side is a no win situation for all. Putin knows this and so do his generals. There are a lot of different people to go through before a nuke is launched. Putin is desperate and bluffing because this invasion will be his undoing.....

[rwd123]

Fearmongering BS.  Russia isn't going to nuke Ukraine or demand other countries enter the war over the sham referendums or attacks on illegally annexed territories.  Quit trying to go down that rabbithole.  It ain't gonna happen.

Are you forgetting that Russia held sham referendums and illegally annexed Crimea?  There's been attacks on Crimea during this war.

No nukes, no mobilizing other countries, etc.

I said nothing of nukes in my last post.

What I stated is CSTO members can call upon other members for military support. Kazakhstan did so in January and Russia obliged. I'm not sure if Armenia have made a formal request with the current conflict there.

If Russia considers newly acquired territories as part of the Russian Federation, it doesn't matter what others believe or how legitimate (or otherwise) the referenda. It becomes Russia under the CSTO agreements. Attacking these territories may pull Belarus into the conflict.

Then what?

[BC]

If Russia considers newly acquired territories as part of the Russian Federation, it doesn't matter what others believe or how legitimate (or otherwise) the referenda. It becomes Russia under the CSTO agreements. Attacking these territories may pull Belarus into the conflict.

Then what?

Have all the CSTO countries officially recognized Crimea or other areas in UA claimed by Russia as belonging to Russia?

[Chelseaboy]

Kazakhstan has said it will refuse to accept the referendum results in Ukraine.


Serbia has said the same.


Even it's allies don't trust Russia,and know how Putler and his Kremlin lie.

[Chelseaboy]

I served 20yrs in the Navy. All of them in the Trident SSBN service. One Trident sub can carry 24 missiles with each missile with the capacity to hold 7 MIRVs. One Trident sub alone (mind you that there are at least 15 Tridents in service) can level pretty much all major Russian cities. Any kind of Nuclear attack by anyone side is a no win situation for all. Putin knows this and so do his generals. There are a lot of different people to go through before a nuke is launched. Putin is desperate and bluffing because this invasion will be his undoing.....

Let's hope the people who give the order to launch nukes in Russia have people they care about and don't want them being nuked in response.


The problem is Russians are generally a cold people and Putler may well have put the most cold-hearted among them in charge of the nuke orders.

[Chelseaboy]

Mobilised Russians are calling the Ukrainian hotline to find out about surrendering,and the numbers are increasing.


Ukraine MOD.

[Chelseaboy]

Newly mobilised orcs are being sent to the front with no training....at all.


A Russian has done a selfie telling how he's being sent to Kherson to join the 1st Tank Regiment and the new recruits have officially been told there will be no training.


Russia must be in a truly desperate state.

[BC]

Have all the CSTO countries officially recognized Crimea or other areas in UA claimed by Russia as belonging to Russia?

Kazakhstan will ensure the care and safety of Russians fleeing a "hopeless situation," the president of the Central Asian country said on Tuesday, as Russian men fled the Ukraine military call-up.

"Recently we've had many people from Russia coming here," Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was quoted as saying by his press service.

"Most of them are forced to leave because of the hopeless situation. We must take care of them and ensure their safety," he added.

"This is a political and humanitarian issue," he said.

The Kazakh leader also condemned Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and called for respect of territorial integrity, as Russia held annexation referendums in four Ukrainian regions.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/09/27/ukraine-war-as-its-happening-a76553

Kazakhstan is a CSTO country or?  Seems they might not consider any new territories as part of Russia.