More Bad News for Russia

[lordtiberius]

That's not what she wrote and you are insinuating things you yourself can't prove.

[mendeleyev]

FT, being perhaps the only person on the forum who has worked closely around Mr. Putin, I will repeat these two key points. You think them to be an oversimplification, but they are most certain not. I do not think, I do not believe, and it is not my opinion. I know.

- Mr. Putin has never accepted the independence of Ukraine. In his mind, the birth of Rus and the Kievan Rus, means that forever, and forever, and forever that Russia and Ukraine are ONE. It just so happens that the modern day capital is in Moscow, not Kyiv. There are many Russians, likely a vast majority, who share this view.

- For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Russia by herself cannot be a formidable economic union. Russia and Belarus are not a formidable economic union. Russia, Belarus and sparsely populated and underdeveloped Kazakhstan are not a formidable economic union. The addition of the small nation of Armenia has not made Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan into a formidable economic union.

I will repeat this until it sinks in: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Take a look at the map; look at the population figures, look at the total area of farmland, look at the education of the average citizen. When you look at a map of Europe, pay attention to how much of that is Ukraine. Then stop and think of what that means if he loses Ukraine to Europe.

Now, once again: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine.

Bo is absolutely correct.

Mr. Putin does not want a sliver, a region, or just a land bridge. He does not need low educated coal miners in the East. No, in fact, hell no!, because in order for the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine.

He tried influencing via backdoor diplomacy with vassals. That had mixed results at best: two revolutions, the last one in which he had to sweep in and rescue his bastard stepchild Yanukovich.

Mr. Putin is no fool--he is not in the mood to try the vassal approach yet another time, unless that is all he is allowed.

For the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine, and as long as the West does nothing he is coming for it.

[Hammer2722]

FT, being perhaps the only person on the forum who has worked closely around Mr. Putin, I will repeat these two key points. You think them to be an oversimplification, but they are most certain not. I do not think, I do not believe, and it is not my opinion. I know.

- Mr. Putin has never accepted the independence of Ukraine. In his mind, the birth of Rus and they Kievan Rus, means that forever, and forever, and forever that Russia and Ukraine are ONE. It just so happens that the modern day capital is in Moscow, not Kyiv. There are many Russians, likely a vast majority, who share this view.

- For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Russia by herself cannot be a formidable economic union. Russia and Belarus are not a formidable economic union. Russia, Belarus and the sparsely populated and underdeveloped Kazakhstan are not a formidable economic union. The addition of the small nation of Armenia has not made Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan into a formidable economic union.

I will repeat this until it sinks in: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Take a look at the map, look at the population figures, look at the total area of farmland, look at the education of the average citizen. When you look at a map of Europe, pay attention to how much of that is Ukraine. Then stop and think of what that means if he loses Ukraine to Europe.

Now, once again: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine.

Bo is absolutely correct.

Mr. Putin does not see a sliver, or just a land bridge. He does not need low educated coal miners in the East. No, in fact, hell no!, because in order for the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine.

And, as long as the West does nothing, he is coming for it.

 

[mendeleyev]

Thanks Hammer.

Note: I added a couple of sentences to the above post. They are worth reading, in my opinion. 

[AkMike]

Great post Mendy!

 Too bad it'll pass over the heads of the ones that need it most. 

[Patagonie]

Federalization is not a solution for Ukraine.  Let the occupied territory go.  Russia doesn't want it.  It can be independent, with no international recognition.So not respecting international law is the solution?  Most EU countries do, in fact, adhere to international law.  If they were not supported by paid mercenaries, and equipment provided (and paid for) by the Russian government, this conflict would have been over long ago.

+3

[Belvis]

Belvis, Putin's peace offer (strange that Russia would offer peace in a conflict where it has no fight, eh?) was for Russian "peacekeepers" to move in and occupy Ukraine.

No thanks.

By other words you casted your vote for war.  Fortunately this is not a polling, and I have reasons to believe the peace talks will be resumed soon.
I would like to see the reference where Putin or Lavrov voices plans to move in Ukraine  with peacekeeper force as a part of current settlement. World leaders are trying desperately to find clues to Putin's intentions but some jornalists know them already 

[AkMike]

By other words you casted your vote for war.

Russia is at war, with Ukraine and it's an aggressive war, it is waged by Russia and it is a crime against peace.

[Patagonie]

Very interesting post Mendy, i love your insight

[Boethius]

By other words you casted your vote for war.  Fortunately this is not a polling, and I have reasons to believe the peace talks will be resumed soon.
I would like to see the reference where Putin or Lavrov voices plans to move in Ukraine  with peacekeeper force as a part of current settlement. World leaders are trying desperately to find clues to Putin's intentions but some jornalists know them already 

Putin doesn't want peackeepers in Ukraine.  Unless, of course, they are Russian peacekeepers currently "vacationing" in Donbas.
 
I think peacekeepers would be a good idea, provided they are not from Russia.   But, it won't happen because there is no upside to Russia to allow peackeepers.

[Chelseaboy]

Swedish,Finnish and Georgian military volunteers are now fighting in Ukraine after joining the Azov battalion...they believe Putler has to be stopped in Ukraine,or he'll advance into other countries.

The far- right is growing in power in Ukraine as the Azov battalion,many of whom are far-right, are becoming heroes in Ukraine for their deeds against the pro-Russian separatists/Russians.

[Doll]

By other words you casted your vote for war.  Fortunately this is not a polling, and I have reasons to believe the peace talks will be resumed soon.
I would like to see the reference where Putin or Lavrov voices plans to move in Ukraine  with peacekeeper force as a part of current settlement. World leaders are trying desperately to find clues to Putin's intentions but some jornalists know them already 

Mendy has none

[Brasscasing]

By other words you casted your vote for war.  Fortunately this is not a polling, and I have reasons to believe the peace talks will be resumed soon.
I would like to see the reference where Putin or Lavrov voices plans to move in Ukraine  with peacekeeper force as a part of current settlement. World leaders are trying desperately to find clues to Putin's intentions but some jornalists know them already 

War with the west is inevitable if Putin/Russia continues down the path he/they're currently on.

Putin's intentions are no mystery. They are the same intentions every jingoistic warmonger has had throughout history. Putin likes the idea of military strength and using that military strength. He's manipulated the Russian population into supporting his agenda then using that agenda to justify his aggression towards neighboring countries.

Putin's agenda right now is Ukraine. In [edited to read 07/08] it was Georgia.

Putin's "peacekeepers" are already in Ukraine. They're the terrorists currently using t-72's, Grad rocket launchers, artillery chemical/biological warfare against anything and anyone who gets in their way civilian or otherwise.

Brass

[Boethius]

Translation of Russian analyst Andrey Ilarionov's analysis of Putin's strategy in Ukraine.  Ilarionov is a former economic advisor to Putin.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/01/22/russian-analyst-illarionov-discusses-putins-plans-for-ukraine/

[JayH]

Translation of Russian analyst Andrey Ilarionov's analysis of Putin's strategy in Ukraine.  Ilarionov is a former economic advisor to Putin.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/01/22/russian-analyst-illarionov-discusses-putins-plans-for-ukraine/

Do a internet search and you will find 4/5 serious pieces.
His insight is the most interesting of all observers-- and I think the source of a lot of other articles. His thoughts put into perspective the entire pre-planned behaviour of Russia and Putin-- and makes a mockery of the Kremlin propaganda lies.
Worth noting-- he wrote that Russia is attempting to implement a plan made as far back as 2008(2005?)
This is effectively--inside knowledge of intent-- probably as close as most of us will get.

Particularly important is that he makes the connection between Government,economic situation and how the invasion force is designed to place pressure on both--and why.
Some on the forum want to nit pick on individual issues-- read this and think about how it all fits together--it is a very good explanation.

[Taz]

In the middle of this link is another link to help save the Warthog. This would be an extremely effective weapon against the Ukrainian Rebels. If the US doesn't want to keep flying them, give them to Ukraine. They'll do a very effective job slicing and dicing Russian tanks.


http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/01/21/legendary-10-warthog-sends-isis-fleeing-even-as-it-faces-pentagon-cuts/

[cc3]

As I see you're in complete darkness about situation there though think the opposite. Then you'll be always supprised by development of the conflict, just watch.

"Complete darkness"? I live in Ukraine, you pro-Russian ignoramus!

[fathertime]

FT, being perhaps the only person on the forum who has worked closely around Mr. Putin, I will repeat these two key points. You think them to be an oversimplification, but they are most certain not. I do not think, I do not believe, and it is not my opinion. I know.

 

Hey mendeleyev...I enjoy reading your work, so no offense to you personally, but I  am very skeptical of anybody who says they know for sure all of what is behind this crisis.  There are experts on the news nightly who say they 'know' and then something they  didn't expect happens. 

- For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Russia by herself cannot be a formidable economic union. Russia and Belarus are not a formidable economic union. Russia, Belarus and sparsely populated and underdeveloped Kazakhstan are not a formidable economic union. The addition of the small nation of Armenia has not made Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan into a formidable economic union.

I will repeat this until it sinks in: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Take a look at the map; look at the population figures, look at the total area of farmland, look at the education of the average citizen. When you look at a map of Europe, pay attention to how much of that is Ukraine. Then stop and think of what that means if he loses Ukraine to Europe.

Now, once again: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine.

Bo is absolutely correct.

Mr. Putin does not want a sliver, a region, or just a land bridge. He does not need low educated coal miners in the East. No, in fact, hell no!, because in order for the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine.

He tried influencing via backdoor diplomacy with vassals. That had mixed results at best: two revolutions, the last one in which he had to sweep in and rescue his bastard stepchild Yanukovich.

Mr. Putin is no fool--he is not in the mood to try the vassal approach yet another time, unless that is all he is allowed.

For the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine, and as long as the West does nothing he is coming for it.

From your writing it is clear you believe/know that is crisis is all about the Eurasian union.  You have now stated that Russia needs all of Ukraine in order for this to work.  I don't think Russia will be able to envelope all of Ukraine, and I think Russia must realize that...of course they could occupy the area, but it would be so counterproductive that I don't believe it is going to happen.    Therefore I think there is something else in play. If Putin wanted all of Ukraine, he would have seen much earlier on that the current plan would not work in terms of the entire Ukraine, and he would have gotten way more aggressive rapidly, while the iron was still relatively hot.  Or perhaps you feel the current plan is working, and will work to take over all of Ukraine as would be necessary for your theory (for lack of a better word) to play out?   
 
I am still holding the end result will be a divided Ukraine, both sides get something and leave it at that...A question that remains is exactly how much is Russia going to take before the cost becomes too high, and the 'holding costs' become too much?


Of course I'm no expert on these matters but what in the bolded logic am I incorrect?


Thanks,
Fathertime!   

[LiveFromUkraine]

"Complete darkness"? I live in Ukraine, you pro-Russian ignoramus!

Geriatric dude, I suggest you take some time off of the forum before you end up killing yourself.  High blood pressure isn't a good thing for a man of your age.  Some old dude goes off to Ukraine to get a young woman because he feels like he is 20 years younger and then has the audacity to call someone else ignoramus.  Freaking unbelievable.

[LiveFromUkraine]

 
From your writing it is clear you believe/know that is crisis is all about the Eurasian union.  You have now stated that Russia needs all of Ukraine in order for this to work.  I don't think Russia will be able to envelope all of Ukraine, and I think Russia must realize that...of course they could occupy the area, but it would be so counterproductive that I don't believe it is going to happen.    Therefore I think there is something else in play. If Putin wanted all of Ukraine, he would have seen much earlier on that the current plan would not work in terms of the entire Ukraine, and he would have gotten way more aggressive rapidly, while the iron was still relatively hot.  Or perhaps you feel the current plan is working, and will work to take over all of Ukraine as would be necessary for your theory (for lack of a better word) to play out?   
 



Thanks,
Fathertime!   

FT, I think Putin is also testing the West.  Seeing how far he can take things and what the retaliatory responses will be.  Similar to a kid trying to figure out how far he can push things

[TheBullRDR]

http://www.funker530.com/us-soldiers-armored-vehicles-going-to-ukraine/

Looks like we're getting involved.

[southernX]

FT, being perhaps the only person on the forum who has worked closely around Mr. Putin, I will repeat these two key points. You think them to be an oversimplification, but they are most certain not. I do not think, I do not believe, and it is not my opinion. I know.

- Mr. Putin has never accepted the independence of Ukraine. In his mind, the birth of Rus and the Kievan Rus, means that forever, and forever, and forever that Russia and Ukraine are ONE. It just so happens that the modern day capital is in Moscow, not Kyiv. There are many Russians, likely a vast majority, who share this view.

- For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Russia by herself cannot be a formidable economic union. Russia and Belarus are not a formidable economic union. Russia, Belarus and sparsely populated and underdeveloped Kazakhstan are not a formidable economic union. The addition of the small nation of Armenia has not made Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan into a formidable economic union.

I will repeat this until it sinks in: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine. Take a look at the map; look at the population figures, look at the total area of farmland, look at the education of the average citizen. When you look at a map of Europe, pay attention to how much of that is Ukraine. Then stop and think of what that means if he loses Ukraine to Europe.

Now, once again: For the Eurasian Union to succeed, it needs Ukraine.

Bo is absolutely correct.

Mr. Putin does not want a sliver, a region, or just a land bridge. He does not need low educated coal miners in the East. No, in fact, hell no!, because in order for the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine.

He tried influencing via backdoor diplomacy with vassals. That had mixed results at best: two revolutions, the last one in which he had to sweep in and rescue his bastard stepchild Yanukovich.

Mr. Putin is no fool--he is not in the mood to try the vassal approach yet another time, unless that is all he is allowed.

For the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine, and as long as the West does nothing he is coming for it.

100% agree mendy top post ,
putin will not ease up unless he is forced too

SX

[Belvis]

"Complete darkness"? I live in Ukraine

For this reason you see the conflict through your wife's eyes. I don't think you're able to read fluently through tens of twitters, blogs, agencies, newspapers, analitics to get own opinion.

[sleepycat]

For the Eurasian Union to succeed, he needs Ukraine, and as long as the West does nothing he is coming for it.

Mendy, do you think there have already been back channel threats from Putler to Poroshenko along the lines of "Join my little club or else..."

Surely Putler must realise that any Ukrainian president that even publicly contemplates joining that organisation will get lynched by his own population.

[BillyB]

FT, I think Putin is also testing the West.  Seeing how far he can take things and what the retaliatory responses will be.  Similar to a kid trying to figure out how far he can push things

So far Putin has concluded he can keep pushing. While pretending he's interested in peace talks and a ceasefire, he continue to move his military West and finalizing paperwork on taking parts of Georgia.


Obama pretends to be tough by applying sanctions but does other things that put money in Russia's pocket. Obama lifted sanctions against Iran as part of the "reset" with Russia, and recently completed purchasing over a billion dollars of suspiciously overpriced Russian military hardware for Afghanistan's military. Obama is giving Iran over 12 billion dollars to lure them to the negotiating table to talk about nukes. Don't know if nuke talks will be fruitful but Iran did engage in a military deal with Russia recently. Our tax dollars at work....against us. I'm sure Iran will end up doing what they always do, take the money and pretend to cooperate until they need more money. Maybe Obama can send Putin a few billion dollars to lure him to the peace talk table too? Maybe we can buy Russian military equipment for Ukraine as we did for Afghanistan? Links 1 and 2


Putin is also making friends with some of the worlds worst actors. Besides making deals with China and Iran recently, he scheduled to have, arguably the worst dictator in the world, Kim Jong-Un visit Moscow. Can any good come of this? Link 3. Putin is extremely active for a guy not involved in Ukraine.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/08/russian-helicopters-us-1-billion-afghan-military_n_4408278.html


http://www.dodbuzz.com/2014/11/03/russia-delivers-last-of-u-s-bought-helicopters-to-afghan-military/


http://news.yahoo.com/china-welcome-kim-jong-un-visit-moscow-192149710.html

http://www.funker530.com/us-soldiers-armored-vehicles-going-to-ukraine/

Looks like we're getting involved.

What's a few dozen Kozak vehicles going to do against tanks? I know the article states USA is delivering them but they are made in Ukraine. In link below is America's "Security Assurances" to Ukraine. While we've bought over a billion dollars of Russian military equipment over the last few years for Afghanistan and giving 12 billion dollars to Iran to encourage them to talk to us, we are giving Ukraine 23 million in military assistance, some of that is in the form of food. Hopefully Obama gets his priorities straight.


http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/06/04/fact-sheet-us-security-assistance-ukraine