More Bad News for Russia

[AkMike]

Bloomberg puts Russia among worst economies in 2016

Only Greece, Brazil and Venezuela show worse figures, according to the analysis of potential efficiency of the world’s 93 economies conducted by several experts at Bloomberg’s request, according to Russia’s RBC news agency.


REUTERS"Its [Russia’s] GDP, according to economists, will be reduced in 2016 by 0.5%. Only Greece, Brazil and Venezuela are expected to show worse performance. Negative growth is also expected from the Ecuadorian economy, Argentina's GDP will remain at the same level, while the economies of Japan, Finland, Croatia and Switzerland will grow very slightly," said the report.
It is noted that in the past year Russia ranked third from the bottom in the Bloomberg’s list: its GDP has decreased by 3.65% in the first nine months. The last place went to Macau with the index declining by 25.03%. Ukraine's GDP will grow by 1.2-1.4%, according to the economists. There is a 60% possibility of a recession in the next 12 months, according to the experts.
"For Russia, a high risk of recession will remain throughout the year, but will begin to decline starting September, down to the level of just above 60% in December. The average risk will be at 65%. In general, the economists believe that Russia will come out of the prolonged two-decade recession and will see a slight growth by the end of the fourth quarter," the report reads.
The World Bank expects that in 2016, Russia's economy will shrink by 0.7%. A report issued on January 6 said that structural reforms are needed to improve the situation and reduce the geopolitical risks



Read more on UNIAN  http://www.unian.info/economics/1232884-bloomberg-puts-russia-among-worst-economies-in-2016.html

[JayH]

Hardly likely to help the Russian situation-



OIL AT USD $31


Crude Oil      31.12   -2.04   -6.15%
Ethanol      1.316   -0.019   -1.42%
Natural Gas      2.357   -0.115   -4.65%
Gasoline      1.1106   -0.0171   -1.52%
Heating Oil      1.0102   -0.0419   -3.98%
Gold      1095.0   -2.9   -0.26%
Quotes are delayed at least 10 minutes.
Click on chart icon for detailed price charts.


Morgan Stanley Joins The $20 Oil Club

“Oil in the $20s is possible, but not for the reasons often cited,” Morgan Stanley concluded. “It’s not about deteriorating fundamentals.”

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Morgan-Stanley-Joins-The-20-Oil-Club.html


TODAY--

1.00 USD   =   76.1605 RUB
US Dollar   ↔   Russian Ruble
1 USD = 76.1605 RUB   1 RUB = 0.0131302 USD
Convert again
RUB/USD thumbnailView Chart
Mid-market rates: 2016-01-12 00:08 UTC

[AkMike]

Ruble Crashes to 77 Per Dollar Amid Oil Price Slump
 
The Russian ruble fell to 77 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday for the first time since December 2014 as global prices for oil continue to slide, the RIA Novosti news agency reported.
As of Tuesday morning, the Russian currency had slipped to 77.01 against the U.S. dollar and 83.80 against the euro, according to the data from the Moscow Exchange.
The official exchange rates set by Russia's Central Bank on Monday stand at 75.95 rubles against the U.S. dollar, the lowest level since the financial collapse of 1998, according to the RBC newspaper. The official ruble exchange rate against the European currency stands at 82.8.
The weakening of the ruble comes amid the continuing decline in the global prices for oil.
February futures for Brent crude are currently trading at $30.6 per barrel, according to RIA Novosti.
The ruble has lost more than 50 percent of its value against the dollar since 2014.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/555547.html

[JayH]

The whisper of the collapse of the Russian economy is now an avalanche !!  One more voice making the prediction now-- and all that in spite of some of the forum who refuse to accept that it has been inevitable. To this day-- I still hear otherwise sensible people  not understanding the crisis that Putin has created.( that reference is not about acknowledged forum pro Rus anything fools)
A prominent European think tank contends that the Russian economy may be entering into a death spiral, driven by a combination of factors, including low energy prices, government mismanagement, a collapse in the Russian ruble’s value and Western sanctions.

Russia: Primed for an Economic Meltdown
The outsized influence of the state over the Russian economy throws a formidable obstacle in the way of economic recovery, the report asserts. “The decade-long implementation of the strategic idea of expanding the government sector of the economy, and making state investments a key driver of economic growth simply has not worked.”
 
“There are serious factors at work which will most probably drag the economy further down in a spiral effect — the destroyed domestic demand will force manufacturers to lay off people and reduce wages, causing further shocks to domestic demand,” the report warns.
 
Ominously, with few financial levers at their disposal to stabilize the economy, Russian policymakers are “playing around with the idea” of printing money on a massive scale, the report says. The potential massive emission of rubles into the economy by the Central Bank conjures up memories of the darkest days of the early 1990s, when the Russian economy was cast adrift amid the Soviet Union’s collapse.


http://www.eurasianet.org/node/76766

[fathertime]

The whisper of the collapse of the Russian economy is now an avalanche !!  One more voice making the prediction now-- and all that in spite of some of the forum who refuse to accept that it has been inevitable. To this day-- I still hear otherwise sensible people  not understanding the crisis that Putin has created.( that reference is not about acknowledged forum pro Rus anything fools)
A prominent European think tank contends that the Russian economy may be entering into a death spiral, driven by a combination of factors, including low energy prices, government mismanagement, a collapse in the Russian ruble’s value and Western sanctions.

Russia: Primed for an Economic Meltdown
The outsized influence of the state over the Russian economy throws a formidable obstacle in the way of economic recovery, the report asserts. “The decade-long implementation of the strategic idea of expanding the government sector of the economy, and making state investments a key driver of economic growth simply has not worked.”
 
“There are serious factors at work which will most probably drag the economy further down in a spiral effect — the destroyed domestic demand will force manufacturers to lay off people and reduce wages, causing further shocks to domestic demand,” the report warns.
 
Ominously, with few financial levers at their disposal to stabilize the economy, Russian policymakers are “playing around with the idea” of printing money on a massive scale, the report says. The potential massive emission of rubles into the economy by the Central Bank conjures up memories of the darkest days of the early 1990s, when the Russian economy was cast adrift amid the Soviet Union’s collapse.


http://www.eurasianet.org/node/76766

Near 30 dollar oil, and Russia continues on in it's current course in international adventures.   I believe it has been wishful thinking regarding the 'collapse', which you have been posting about for 2 years.   We (The US) have begun to feel effects, especially in the stock market and our tolerance is much much lower.   I believe the nations will have to coexist because neither will go down. 


Fathertime!   

[JayH]

Tumbling oil trades below $30 a barrel for first time in 12 years


Oil fell briefly below the widely watched $30-per-barrel level on Tuesday, extending a selloff that has sliced almost 20 percent off prices this year amid deepening concerns about fragile Chinese demand and the absence of output restraint.

Prices settled down 3 percent, a seventh straight daily decline for oil. Traders have all but given up attempting to predict where the new-year rout will end, with momentum-driven dealing and overwhelmingly bearish sentiment engulfing the market. Some analysts warned of $20 a barrel; Standard Chartered said fund selling may not relent until it reaches $10.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0UQ02220160112

U.S. Oil Settles Above $30 a Barrel, After Dipping Below for First Time Since 2003


Big oil companies deepened their cutbacks to staff and investment Tuesday, as the price of oil briefly slipped below $30 a barrel for the first time since December 2003.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-flirts-with-30-a-barrel-level-1452572527

[AkMike]

Evidence on perpetrators of war crimes in Russia’s war in Donbas to be submitted to The Hague 

A new 156-page investigative report identifies for the first time perpetrators of war crimes in Russia’s war in East Ukraine. The extensive evidence presented will be submitted to the International Criminal Court in The Hague which has jurisdiction to prosecute individuals for international crimes of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes.The report entitled  is based on numerous victim and witness interviews conducted by a team of Polish and Ukrainian volunteers. It was commissioned by Polish Parliamentarian Małgorzata Gosiewska of Poland’s Law and Justice Party. The report adds to the mounting evidence of the horrific conditions of war that Ukrainian soldiers and civilians have had to endure as a result of Russia’s invasion into Ukraine after the abdication of the presidency by Victor Yanukovych in the days following the nation’s Euromaidan Revolution in February 2014.

Click for the rest of the article
http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/12/24/new-report-russias-war-crimes-and-perpetrators-in-ukraine-2014/

[2tallbill]

This sounds far too low. There worst I've heard about was in the low twenties.

The 2016 federal budget that was approved in October was based on an oil price of
$50 a barrel in 2016 - a figure President Vladimir Putin has since described as "unrealistic".

Oil price: predictions of fall to $16 - and even $10

read all about it here
http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-price-predictions-of-fall-to-16-and-even-10

[2tallbill]

Russia prepares stress test as oil slides below $30

While US WTI crude briefly stumbled below $30 for the first time in 12 years, Russia's Urals blend is already below that mark trading at $27.14 a barrel. Given the new reality, the Kremlin has ordered stress tests with $25, $35 and $45 oil.



read all about it here
http://www.rt.com/business/328728-russia-oil-prices-budget/

[AkMike]

It's going to hurt that one trick pony show that they've got going on in Russia.

[AkMike]

Russian Imports Drop 36% in 2015
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-imports-drop-36-in-2015/555780.html

Russian Car Sales Down 36% in 2015
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-car-sales-down-36-in-2015/555761.html

Russia Must Cut Spending or Suffer Financial Crash — Finance Minister
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-must-cut-spending-or-suffer-financial-crash--finance-minister/555640.html

60% of Muscovites Have Noticed Russia's Worsening Economy – Pollhttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/60-of-muscovites-have-noticed-russias-worsening-economy--poll/555636.html

Russian Outbound Tourism During New Year Holidays Down 35%
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-outbound-tourism-during-new-year-holidays-down-35/555591.html

China's Economic Turmoil Ruins Russia's New Year
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/chinas-economic-turmoil-ruins-russias-new-year/555714.html

Putin on Russia-West Relations: 'We've Done Everything Wrong'
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-on-russia-west-relations-weve-done-everything-wrong/555445.html

[GuppyCaptain]

Mike, now you're just being "anti-Russian" 

[AkMike]

Not really, I'm anti-Kremlin and anti-Invasion. Too bad that it seems that the country is filled with vatniks though. 

[AkMike]

Sorry for the large font size folks.. Chrome isn't good for this copy/paste. I'll swap back to IE for future ones.

[GuppyCaptain]

Not really, I'm anti-Kremlin and anti-Invasion. Too bad that it seems that the country is filled with vatniks though. 

It was an inside joke from that "other" forum. A few of us were passionately labeled "anti-Russian" even though we're anti-Putin and have no beef with the country's general populace.

[mendeleyev]

Last week it hit $74 and by Friday we saw signs advertising $75.  By Saturday it was $76, Sunday my wife pointed out several signs at $77 and on Tuesday morning we were seeing $78.  One friend swears he saw $80 but I think that he might have confused it for Euros.

[JayH]

It was an inside joke from that "other" forum. A few of us were passionately labeled "anti-Russian" even though we're anti-Putin and have no beef with the country's general populace.

GC--we have heard all that "you are anti-Russian"  bs here too.Some of the loudest in the other place left here with tails between their legs!  Not so keen when people are actually able to reply.
You( & others) are probably not aware how many are restricted in how posts appear there--plus the veritable army of regulars here who are banned there.
The lack of free speech there is right out of the Kremlin playbook!!

At least here there are many with strong connections to Russia that see it for what it is-and more power to them for that.

[JayH]

Where is the cheapest crude oil in the world? And how low can you get that barrel of oil?

Forget $20 - Oil Prices At $8 Per Barrel In Canada

WTI has declined to $30 per barrel, the lowest level in more than 12 years. But heavy oil producers in Canada would love to have $30 oil.

The price for a barrel of bitumen, the tar-like oil sands that comes from Alberta, fell to just over $8 per barrel this week. That is not a typo. Bitumen traded at $8.35 per barrel on Tuesday.


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Forget-20-Oil-Prices-At-8-Per-Barrel-In-Canada.html

[AkMike]

It was an inside joke from that "other" forum. A few of us were passionately labeled "anti-Russian" even though we're anti-Putin and have no beef with the country's general populace.

 I got it . that's why I worded it like that, for the vatniks.. 

[AkMike]

Last week it hit $74 and by Friday we saw signs advertising $75.  By Saturday it was $76, Sunday my wife pointed out several signs at $77 and on Tuesday morning we were seeing $78.  One friend swears he saw $80 but I think that he might have confused it for Euros.

 Mendy, Are any of those signs set up to handle triple digits yet?   

[fathertime]

Where is the cheapest crude oil in the world? And how low can you get that barrel of oil?

Forget $20 - Oil Prices At $8 Per Barrel In Canada

WTI has declined to $30 per barrel, the lowest level in more than 12 years. But heavy oil producers in Canada would love to have $30 oil.

The price for a barrel of bitumen, the tar-like oil sands that comes from Alberta, fell to just over $8 per barrel this week. That is not a typo. Bitumen traded at $8.35 per barrel on Tuesday.


http://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Forget-20-Oil-Prices-At-8-Per-Barrel-In-Canada.html

A ton of straight sand will be about $30 a ton.


Fathertime!   

[ML]

A ton of straight sand will be about $30 a ton.
Fathertime!

Any quotes on gay sand?

[mendeleyev]

 Mendy, Are any of those signs set up to handle triple digits yet?   

Mike, in true Ruskie fashion most of those signs will simply read the last two digits, with the first digit being "understood" if such a drop were to continue.

[AkMike]

Thanks! 

[AkMike]

"We have lost": Sberbank of Russia's CEO calls Russia "downshifter state"

Era of hydrocarbons is over, and Russia has found itself among the losers, "the downshifter states,” said German Gref, Head of Sberbank of Russia speaking at the Gaidar Forum. He called to change all state systems, including the system of education.
Gref spoke of the crisis in the oil market, which, as he believes, was caused by the "radical shifts in consumption." "The era of hydrocarbons is over. Just like the Stone Age was over not because there were no stones left, the Oil Age is now over as well," Gref said.

"The future has come sooner than we expected. We are already living in this future today,” the head of Sberbank said, adding in English: “Welcome to the future!”

As RBC reported, Gref believes that the future price of oil does not really matter: "We will really lag behind if we don’t change the concept of our popular approach."

"We lost the competition, ending up among of countries that are losing, "the downshifter states." The winners are the states and individuals, who were able to adapt and invest in it in due time. Those who weren’t, are going to lose big time," he said. According to Gref, Russia is facing "a huge income gap" with "the winner states.”

Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1237754-we-have-lost-sberbank-of-russia-ceo-calls-russia-downshifter-state.html