Heading out to Russia but nixed Ukraine portion

[cameraguymn]

Am I playing with fire or will it be okay. I figure worse that could happen is that I'm rounded up and told to leave immediately. Honestly, I think going to Kyiv will be okay too but I can't be stuck there if something actually happens.

[cameraguymn]

Speaking to people in Kyiv and Odesa they are like nothing is going to happen. You should come.

Out of 8 people I spoke with only one was nervous about the situation.  Six of the people are in Kyiv and two are in Odesa. Forgot one is in Kharkiv and she's blah about the invasion.

[2tallbill]

Am I playing with fire or will it be okay. I figure worse that could happen is that I'm rounded up and told to leave immediately. Honestly, I think going to Kyiv will be okay too but I can't be stuck there if something actually happens.

Where is your destination in Russia?

[ML]

So you think the Russian people will treat you nice when their sons come home in body bags after being killed by USA supplied ammunition ?? !!

[cameraguymn]

Heading to Moscow. Wanted to do a fishing trip but I'd have to go to St. Petersburg. I'll save St. Petersburg for next time.

Where is your destination in Russia?

[Trenchcoat]

Speaking to people in Kyiv and Odesa they are like nothing is going to happen. You should come.

Out of 8 people I spoke with only one was nervous about the situation.  Six of the people are in Kyiv and two are in Odesa. Forgot one is in Kharkiv and she's blah about the invasion.

How would they know nothing is going to happen? They have little choice in the matter. If they flee to the EU border and claim asylum they could be leaving family behind, jobs, living accommodation. If the Russians invade they may lose a lot, their lives even, they might then make a dash for the EU border, but odds are they aren't going to do that beforehand as they may not invade, so they can't toss away what they have for something that may not happen but I think the situation is far from assured.

Think also of the possibility that either side might arrest you as a spy, visa & stamps in passport, etc. Russia is likely to be the worst some get arrested there I think every so often at random to be used as a pawn in their game with western nations. The suspect background & the more sensitive a time the more likely they may pull you out for that.

I wouldn't bank on Russia not invading Ukraine, apart from the force on its borders now much looking like an invasion force and the signs being there I think for Russia it's a relatively easy move. They pound the Ukrainian Army with missiles, the west have already said they won't intervene and they move in their army with nothing to stop them. Russia is confident after Syria & Crimea so they won't see it as a big stone to overturn. Ukraine has little in the way if air & missile defense so they are an easy target like Syria was so I wouldn't bank on Russia not invading.

[cameraguymn]

I think any battles will not involve civilians. It will be key military areas. This is not Syria and Russia is not a military faction without a home and a populous to be accounted for.  Putin has checkmated the West. Even if Russia intends to invade they will not devastate the most valuable asset of the former Soviet bloc nations. Even in Russia money and commerce is what drives them. The ruling party is all tied to making money continually year after year. Kyiv will be not pummelled like a Dresden in WWII. Even a neanderthal like Putin understands that is not modern warfare.

I think the people I am talking to do have valuable knowledge. They are on the ground and they are getting local news from the government, media and their relatives on the Eastern front. I trust the people of Kyiv more than a CIA analyst within four walls in Virginia. I am a democrat but I feel Biden and his administration does not understand the situation well enough and acted accordingly.

I'm more afraid of commercial airlines canceling their flights from Kyiv and I'll just be stuck in Kyiv but I have contingency plans. I have people in Minsk and I can also drive to Bucarest.

[cameraguymn]

I discovered a neat trick while backpacking in Europe. Canadiens get receive nearly all of the benefits of Americans without half the backlash and negativity.

So you think the Russian people will treat you nice when their sons come home in body bags after being killed by USA supplied ammunition ?? !!

[2tallbill]

Heading to Moscow. Wanted to do a fishing trip but I'd have to go to St. Petersburg. I'll save St. Petersburg for next time.

cameraguymn

mn = Minnersoda?

If so, you already know what fishing in February in Russia would be like.

[2tallbill]

So you think the Russian people will treat you nice when their sons come home in body bags after being killed by USA supplied ammunition ?? !!

I think that they surely have a person designated to determine the provenance of ammunition's
used on the victims before zipping up those body bags. Sorta like we determined whether any
Russians flew combat missions in Korea during the war.

[cameraguymn]

The lady likes to fish but has never ice fish. They take us out to the 2nd biggest lake in Europe but we'll be out in the cold not some comfortable ice trailer. But might be too much logistically to do on this short trip.

cameraguymn

mn = Minnersoda?

If so, you already know what fishing in February in Russia would be like.

[Trenchcoat]

I think any battles will not involve civilians. It will be key military areas. This is not Syria and Russia is not a military faction without a home and a populous to be accounted for.  Putin has checkmated the West. Even if Russia intends to invade they will not devastate the most valuable asset of the former Soviet bloc nations. Even in Russia money and commerce is what drives them. The ruling party is all tied to making money continually year after year. Kyiv will be not pummelled like a Dresden in WWII. Even a neanderthal like Putin understands that is not modern warfare.

I think the people I am talking to do have valuable knowledge. They are on the ground and they are getting local news from the government, media and their relatives on the Eastern front. I trust the people of Kyiv more than a CIA analyst within four walls in Virginia. I am a democrat but I feel Biden and his administration does not understand the situation well enough and acted accordingly.

I'm more afraid of commercial airlines canceling their flights from Kyiv and I'll just be stuck in Kyiv but I have contingency plans. I have people in Minsk and I can also drive to Bucarest.

Odds are that Putin will want the cities relatively intact as they are. Rebuilding them is going to be costly and Russia hasn't rebuilt it's Soviet concrete block shiteholes so I doubt they will be up for doing Ukraine's first. Putin will also not want Ukraine to be any more of a dead weight economically than it has been to date either.

My guess is this is what will happen, remember you heard it from me first

Putin will hammer Ukraine's forces with either shelling or missiles. He'll probably start with shelling and fire small missiles if and where he has to, enough to dislodge the Ukrainian Army and get them fleeing in blind panic. He probably won't try to kill them all or even many of them. His objective will likely be to get them to flee with the least casualties possible. Once the Ukrainian Army is in headlong retreat he will probably move up into positions around the key Ukrainian cities, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, etc. At this point he will probably try and get some sort of negotiation going. The Ukrainian Army will have been smashed and not really wanting to get another pummeling. The Ukrainian leadership will know the game is up, some may flee to the west to exile. At this point any sort of leadership in Ukraine that is left, the Ukrainian Army Generals, Ukrainian politicians, particularly the more pro-russian leaning ones or ones who want to cut a good deal for themselves in a new Pro-Russian Ukraine will step forward to do the 'negotiating' on behalf of the Ukrainian People representing the leadership that is left at least that which is open to discussion. They will be rewarded with plum positions in the new Pro-Russian Ukrainian government, good wealth opportunities etc to keep them sweet. They in turn will have to agree to Russian demands, no NATO, No EU, agreements of trade & political tie ups with the Russian Federation and a stuffing of Ukraine Parliament with Pro-Russian supporters with continual rigged ballots and favours to those supporters to keep them on side with Russia. Odds are Ukraine's main port cities of Odesa, Nikolaev, Kherson & Mariupol will have agreements made for Russian use of its Naval facilities. I reckon during the attack Russia may try to knock out Ukraine's electricity grid also, nothing like Ukraine's citizens freezing in cold apartments to drain their spirit. I think you're probably right that Russia will likely try and avoid going into Ukraine's cities. I think Russia knows that occupation of Ukraine is not a good idea I the long run, they'll prefer to pull the strings from afar and get Pro-Russian Ukrainians (or at least those willing to work with the regime for their own benefit) to run Ukraine like an independent state but one in favour of Russia, so not exactly puppet but close to it.

Russia's main issue to my mind is the strategic issues of Ukraine, it's black sea ports, keeping NATO & the EU out, it's trade and political tie ups. I don't think they wish to care to run Ukraine directly, Ukraine isn't that prosperous to care too much about that better to let a Pro-Russian Ukrainian government bother with the day to day issues like that and keep it off their books. If Russia wants more power over Ukraine vin the future they will only have to twist the arm and the rest will follow.

That I think is a pretty plausible way of it all going down. I personally don't think Russia is building up its forces without intent, it's too full on this time. They have their issues that they want resolved and I think Putin knows military action will bring about the ideal situation he wants most. I personally wouldn't go there till it's over, anything could conceivably happen just safest to watch and wait though I guess you would be in the thick of it all going down although it might be a bit uncomfortable bring in it all perhaps.