The Struggle For Ukraine

[krimster2]

Russia's share of Europe's gas market dropped from 40% to 10%
USA LNG picked up about half of that
that will only increase under Trump
while Turkey will take over Russia's pipeline in Syria

there's an ecological disaster in the black sea now, due to 2 russian oil tankers sinking
all the beaches around sevastopol have been dug up to make trenches for an invasion that never came
so even IF things get back "to nomal" there's a LOT OF WORK to do to ACTUALLY get back to normal

Russia, with sanctions removed, will still be in a war time economy, this will help them rebuild their military industrial complex
everything in Russia has been hollowed out by theft and needs replenishment for the next apparacki thieves to steal

[Trenchcoat]

I'm still hoping on the Russian economy collapsing and Russia going back to post USSR day in the 90s of it being broke and unable to do anything. Better still would be if it breaks up into different regional countries. Russia way back came about as a region conquering neighbouring regions and getting larger and larger and a larger army with each region it conquered. It them steam rolled over it's neighbouring regions with by force if having the largest army.

If the process gets reversed then it will struggle to ever come back as neighbouring regions will all have comparable armies and it won't be able to bully by having the largest army anymore.

[krimster2]

ya have to separate fact from kremlin fiction when contemplating Russia's so-called economy
the metrics I look at paint a pretty grim picture, particularly in banking, construction and non-military mfg sector
it's a depression there

inflation is choking the life out of ordinary working class Russians
and all this inflation is becuz of the decisions of one person

was it worth sacrificing life and limb of 800,00 Russians
a $trillion cost
for a bunch of bombed out ruins?

YES! it was!!! cuz it VERY SLIGHTLY enhanced Putin's position giving him war-time powers over the Russian people
to let him play Stalin

Putin considers himself WAY more important than the Russian People
they're pawns for him to use however he wants
but you can tell, that once something does start "taking off" against Putin, it'll GROW rapidly

the circus that's coming here will now be a middleman for the sell-out of Ukraine
all of the "negotiation" and pushback is for show
Putin and Trump/Musk already made a deal, but they gotta "wash it" before it's fit for public consumption
and pretend it's all about PEACE and not "a piece"

in the USA, we will soon have an "economic emergency" to tell the middle class they need to shoulder more of the debt burden caused by tax cuts to the wealthy
ATTENTION! EVERYONE TO GET FROM STREET!
deportation camps and tarriffs coming

Trump and Putin will soon meet at "Yalta For Crypto Felons" to negotiate the sale of Ukraine
lying is SUCH an essential element of all politics, and that's all yur gonna hear from them regarding this topic
just lies

the devil is gonna be in the details
Will Putin's Real Estate Agent, be able to convince Europe to act in conjunction with him and give Putin 100% sanction relief - or not...
will this great magnificent victory be enuff to cement Putin's view of himself as Vladimir The Great or will it fall short??

hehe Ukraine has "KAMERA SQUAD" like Russia
they watched the movie "The Hateful EIGHT"
and a lightbulb turned on
and they consulted their "Catalog of Poisons" published by the KGB in the 1930s
and found the perfect one

orally administered
death by PROFOUND rectal bleeding
targeted the husband of one of Putin's Propagandists

THIS is how ya do it

PS
good news Transnistria may collapse cuz of Gaz
Russians tried to get all their weapons back from Syria to use in Ukraine
but Syrians said - NO!!!

Putin is a GREAT example of what happens when an autocrat controls the economy
too bad no one is paying attention

 

[krimster2]

http://x.com/AVindman/status/1877801251125010867

one of Putin's problems is ALL his advisors are "YES MEN"
yes men only tell the GREAT LEADER what he wants to hear
and NOT what he needs to hear

Putin wanted to hear that he could take Kiev in 3 days
and that's what the YES MEN told him

conclusion: autocrats are the VERY WORST kind of leaders, becuz ONLY the GREAT LEADER matters to the GREAT LEADER

Automaidan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automaidan

ge fraun auf der automaidan

PS
note to poorly educated/brain washed 'muricans

Marxism = workers own the means of production and receive the benefit of "surplus production"
Stalinism = the state owns the means of production and receive the benefit of "surplus production" and OWNS the workers to!
Capitalists = oligarchs own the means of production and receive the benefit of "surplus production" and pay workers as little as possible

Fox News lies and tells ya Marxism is Stalinism
and in yur universe, whatever Fox sez is true....
welcome to George Orwell's post truth dystopia

I hope there is intelligent life SOMWHERE in the universe
cuz there's phuque-all down here on this planet

from now on, it's gonna be misanthropy all the way DOWN
austerity, shock doctrine, ethnic cleansing, fascism, petty corruption

and ya'll are gonna have FUN FUN FUN till yur Daddy takes yur T-Bird AWAAAYYY!!!!

[Trenchcoat]

The latest from the war around the Pokrovsk area:

http://www.irishtimes.com/world/europe/2025/01/12/russian-forces-advance-towards-ukraines-dnipro-region/

Looks like Russia are playing a crafty tactic here to try and go way past Pokrovsk in the open countryside which is more easy to gain and then once far part Pokrovsk close and cut off access to the city. Ukraine has to try and counter this manoeuvre by Russia and hopefully some muddy boggy terrain will help.

I definitely think that Ukraine needs to lower the draft age to now get far more men to the front.

In Ukraine's favour several sources including this one are pointing to Russia's forces getting eventually exhausted, something I've been saying for a while now.

Krim it is heartening to hear your news that the Russian economy is getting in a really bad way in some sectors, that will hopefully start to take its tool on Russia's war efforts.

If I were Ukraine I would now try and use a lot of Himars and Storm Shadow missiles to beat back the Russian advance around Pokrovsk. Try and inflict a heavy a toll on Russian forces all while defending to exhaust Russian forces as quickly as possible. Taking out some extra Russian troops, armour, artillery, etc will help blunt Russia's attack around Pokrovsk and lead quicker to their exhaustion. I were Ukraine that is where I would aim efforts now. Once Russia's forces are exhausted and at a standstill it's all over for Russia.

[krimster2]

the Afd being a fascist political organisation is openly pro-Russian like MAGA 
this is a good simple indicator for western politicians to determine their fascism IQ, how much they love Putin

if ya all thought that the defense department was to defend American citizens
you are VERY mistaken
Musk's DOGE couldn't find a single penny to cut from the Pentagon, unlike health care for the poor
therefor the Pentagon does NOT pertain to the poor or middle class
cuz if it was, it woulda got cuts

Putin is likely trying to do as much damage to Ukraine as possible as they do the same
ifn it were me, if I were Putin, I'd try to take Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv before the sell-out
all the speculation will be over soon...

[Trenchcoat]

Some recent indication of total Russian losses of the Ukraine war so far. Quite staggering losses really. I doubt the Russians can have much left:

http://x.com/ukraine_world/status/1879075984848375918?t=XuMmGxaYUBy3a36dk5Doxw&s=19

[ML]

Russia can let a lot of North Koreans, Indians, and Iranians die for them also.

[krimster2]

the #dead don't matter,
in Russia, nothing really matters

lost equipment will be replaced by oligarch owned factories over next 2 decades in preparation for round #2
oligarchs will launder their share of re-armamnet spending in trump towers

it doesn't even matter that the Russian economy is MUCHJ worse off than official statistics
to the point that Russia is preparing for food rationing and freezing all bank accounts over a small limit by the end of the year, if the war isn't over
due to all the bad loans the government created to fund the war which has clobbered the banking system

putin rages on TV over per-capita meat consumption in russia and blames this for inflation
the largest country on earth with the largest amount of natural resources
can't feed itself

in Russia, the only thing that matters is the GREAT LEADER
not a million dead or maimed
or the fact that 1/4 of Russia doesn't have indoor plumbing
that the $trillion spent on the war could've fixed
that hospitals are falling apart, schools closing to save money
none of this matters in the slightest

Americans USED to be able to consider their form of government superior to what Russia has
guess what dumpkopfs

I think there's a 50% chance that the national guard commanded by a Fox news host is gonna shoot me sometime this summer in riot season
as a geezer, I find the romantic notion of dying on the barricaide to be appealing, better than ML's Nitrogen or Hospice or other geezer exit routes
if death has a 1,000 doors, this is the one I wanna open

Helmet with face shield
Class III vest
gas mask
fireproof gloves for pickin up CS grenades and throwin em back
container of milk and paper towels for cs gas

I don't intend to be armed
just resisting and protesting
i'll make protest signs, and I'll use what I got 'ole BEEL riled up with to provoke La Guardia National into doin a "Kent State"
so thanks BEEL for validating my comments as causing redneck outrage
that's EXACTLY what I want to do on the barricaide
I want to bait them into shooting an ole geezer on national TV
like they did in Kyiv

cuz I don't want russia to happen here
and american maidan is the only thing that can save us from becoming an autocratic Trump/Musk oligarchy

it's up to the people to save themselves and not depend on democrats or any politicians
we're past that now

if you don't standup like Ukrainians did at maidan, then yur all gonna be slaves like Russians
make yur choice...

give me liberty
or give me death
is mine

the only reason Trump chose the fox news host for Sec of Defense
is that Trump knows that when he orders him to shoot protestors, he will

how long was yanukovich in power after he shot 100+ protesters?
you survivors should keep track
maybe we'll beat Ukraine's record

[Trenchcoat]

cuz I don't want russia to happen here
and american maidan is the only thing that can save us from becoming an autocratic Trump/Musk oligarchy

it's up to the people to save themselves and not depend on democrats or any politicians
we're past that now

if you don't standup like Ukrainians did at maidan, then yur all gonna be slaves like Russians
make yur choice...

give me liberty
or give me death
is mine

the only reason Trump chose the fox news host for Sec of Defense
is that Trump knows that when he orders him to shoot protestors, he will

how long was yanukovich in power after he shot 100+ protesters?
you survivors should keep track
maybe we'll beat Ukraine's record

Looks like old man Biden is with you on that one Krim:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1weqzl3ydro

Well only four more days until we find out now when Trump gets into Office.

Meanwhile Sturmer is in Kyiv signing a 100 year partnership agreement with Kyiv. Of course that means nothing if Ukraine doesn't last that long lol. Whether Ukraine will get more than just words and decent enough back up is another question.

Ukraine potentially only needs to last on a few more months maybe as little as 2-3 months before Russia may run out of Armaments at the front and lose all momentum. At the moment Pokrovsk is the main area of activity at the front. Ideally Ukraine needs to hold onto Pokrovsk and get the Russian lines to cease in their advance here to win out.

[krimster2]

OTD in 1945, Raoul Wallenberg, a Swedish diplomat who saved 15,000 Jews in WW2, was kidnapped by the Soviet NKVD who took him to Moscow & killed him.

[krimster2]

the gaza war looks like it's over.....
hamas lost and is to be replaced by the Palestinian Authority
hezboolah lost
houthis lost
Iran lost

Putin has recently set things up so that Iran can send troops to Ukraine like North Korea
some of the shiploads of weapons that Israel captured in syria and brought to Israel will end up in western Ukraine this year
the enemy of yur enemies are yur friends

[Grumpy]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/russia-oil-canada-sanctions-1.7432083

The sanctions are more holey than a church.

[krimster2]

it's all gonna start unraveling....
Germany is next

http://x.com/i/status/1881437685312786860
video from the Great Patriotic War
the point at which the Nazis were closest to Moscow
those of us who've been to Moscow, please note the attire of the German soldiers
and contrast it to what the Russians were wearing

little things matter

Die Welt Und Montag
German Aid on hold
http://x.com/i/status/1881437685312786860

this will greatly undermine Ukraine's negotiating position
in the past year despite expending hundreds of thousands of soldiers and hundreds of billions of $$, very little new Ukrainian territory was seized by Russia
it's becuz Ukraine has turned the tables and created heavily mined deep defensive layers
at this rate it would take Russia decades to reach Kyiv, and Putin doesn't have that much time

Ukraine depends on the western supply lines
cutting these lines is Putin's objective
and he has a carrot to dangle in front of western oligarchs to get them to do his bidding

[Trenchcoat]

Well initial sign from Trump on Ukraine is not bad:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn0y51z7wedt

I was somewhat surprised to see that he is threatening Russia with more sanctions and tariffs if Russia does not end it's war in Ukraine.

I know to there may be cause for skepticism that this is just a ploy on Trumps part. However, with the Russian economy on the ropes and it's military being badly worn down it may be that Trump has seen this and sees that dealing Russia an easy final blow will put it out of action and the US in a better place as a result of it.

[krimster2]

what Trump says, he doesn't do
what Trump does, he doesn't say

ignore all the words
in boxing there's "fakes" and "jabs" and "punches"
only pay attention to jabs and punches

Trump is posturing for Putin
soon there will be a closed door secret  meeting between the two
pay attention to what they say after the meeting

this is the world's ultimate poker game
under no condition would Putin ever fold
he can lose over and over and over
and he'll keep playing
becuz he has an infinite stack of gopnick chips to play with

he'll only leave the table when he's ahead and can cash in
Trump's whole raison d'etre for Putin
is to use Trump as leverage to get rid of all the West's sanctions on Russia
he can't win without that

when they "ante up"
All sanctions will go away
All captured Ukrainian territory is now Russian
Ne Nato for next 20 years
drop war crimes charges

and then there's the "off-balance sheet" items we can't really talk about
(cough)Rosneft(cough)
and
(cough)City Center(cough)

anyone got a cough drop?

the banality of evil
leads to the bonfire of all vanity

and when all is burned down to the ground
extinguishing the light and leaving the world dark
and centuries are needed to rebuild it back
they'll just do the same thing again

and ya ask me, "why so glum chum"
well...let me tell ya why

I started out as a treasure hunting grave robber in Crimea
and instead ended up having a spiritual awakening
as I dug through layer after layer of war and death
when I dug through the ruins of a burned cathedral in Chersonese
and rubbed some of the dark soil mixed with charcoal between my fingers
I can smell the smoke from the fire lit by Ghengis Khan's Grandson's horde
 
if you take the right drugs
and deeply inhale the charcoal
you can not only smell it
you can start to hear it and see it as well

I was taught how to do this by an ole staruska rusalka
but I didn't use her potion, I used mine
salvia divinorum
when that starooshka saw me zoom out
she wanted some to
and it knocked her on her jhoppa LOL!!!!

good thing I have been charmed by maya bubba
so rusalka can't do nichy vo!!!!
ha ha!!

[Trenchcoat]

So far we have Trump threatening more sanctions on Russia if they don't do a deal and end its war in Ukraine. Russia has fired back that Ukraine was turning anti-Russian and so was a perceived threat on its border.

I could see something like you suggest being put forward by Putler, Russia keeps current territory and no NATO join up for Ukraine for at least 20 years or perhaps ever, same with EU membership, etc...

Then Trump threatening to lift sanctions on Russia if Ukraine doesn't agree while the war is still going on. To try and put pressure on Ukraine to agree. However, will that be enough? In theory Ukraine could continue the war even if the US lifts sanctions on Russia. The EU and the UK will still have sanctions in place and most of the trade in oil, gas, etc is done with the EU/Europe. Odds are even if Russia used the US to try and circumvent these sanctions the EU/UK would block a US circumvention route.

Russia probably doesn't donate lot of trade with the US as so far away. So even though the US is a big economy on are the US lifting sanctions on Russia may not be of that big a boost to Russia's economy. At the moment Russia's economy is hit by labour shortages - because of conscription & it's citizens fleeing abroad, it has high inflation and also high interest rates. Probably also big debts, tax revenue down, industry stagnant/declining, foreign money reserves issues, etc... So is Russia's economic situation already too far gone for US lifting sanctions to make much difference?

I personally don't think that Russia's economy would improve much as it's too late in the day. Only if the war in Ukraine ends and all sanctions are lifted might Russia's economy improve. Bearing in mind the US probably has ample supply of oil & gas in Texas, elsewhere in the US and offshore and other suppliers closer to home as well as a electric car market and alternatives I don't think that Trump lifting sanctions on Russia will help much.

Mostly I think it will be down to the EU, Von der Leyen, Germany & France, etc to decide if it will back up Ukraine. So far Von der Leyen seems whole heartedly behind Ukraine. It would be embarrassing for her for Ukraine to be off the menu for membership even though it's in no state for membership. I also get the impression she is not a fan of Trump and won't be willing to fold to him. So, so long as this doesn't change and the EU keeps backing Ukraine then I think Trump may lack the arm twisting power with Ukraine.

I can definitely see Trump not giving Ukraine any more funding as that in theory would go against his 'America First' approach. Whether he is that bothered trying to pursue Ukraine any further post sanctions dropping remains to be seen. I am not so sure he will if he indeed has anything else to twist their arm further with. I think Trump's attention may be more fixated on issues in and around the US.

Elon Musk I can see as running for President in 2028. He'll probably win the nomination against Vancy pants as I don't see Vance as being able to project himself as well. Assuming all sh*r doesn't hit the fan I think Musk stands a very high chance of being President in 2028. The Democrats are unfortunately at the moment still searching.

[olgac]

Musk isn't born in US though

[krimster2]

why is it love and grace almost never gets a chance
and hate always gets in for free?

why is one so much easier than the other?
 

[krimster2]

lifting russian sanctions will boost the US dollar...
before 2014, a plane load of US $100 Notes would land every day in Moscow
we're talkin an 18 wheelr truck load of $100
this all flowed into the banking system
this is some thing I saw myself

then there's the crypto....OMG....
they're gettin rid of all US crypto regs

instead of all that oil goin to asia
it wants to go europe
and Russia wants to add the siberian arctic fields to this trade
and ship across the arctic

none of that will happen if sanctions are still there

the most difficult part of the negotiation is actually about sanctiions

[ML]

I think Musk stands a very high chance of being President in 2028.

Ask Arnold about this.

[krimster2]

comrads....
please listen to me...

as a zhid who has lived in Russia
whose roots comes from those who spent over 1,000 years staying at least one step ahead of dull witted alchogoloki
thus in posession of a genetic pre-disposition as someone who can negotiate circles around even the best toughest Russian negotiators

allow me to impart some wisdom, or is it only knowledge, you decide...
A Russian "Tell" is always this...
when the Russian gives ya a list of demands
the last one on the list is ALWAYS the most important!
PONNELLE?

smatree...and vidisch well

"Any ceasefire would only be possible if it was more than just a freezing of the fighting but aimed at a final, binding resolution to the causes of the war.
  Russia would not negotiate over the four regions of Ukraine that are “now part” of Russia: Crimea, the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts (including those parts Moscow does not currently control) which Putin now says is in response to its citizens’ calls for “self-determination” in accordance with [Moscow’s interpretation] of “the UN Charter.”

 A simple delay to Ukraine joining NATO no matter how long was unacceptable – Kyiv should abandon all plans to join the alliance and declare itself a neutral country.
 Ukraine must enact legal guarantees to respect and protect the rights and interests including the language and culture of its Russian-speaking minorities.
 All sanctions against Russia must be lifted.
"

so here's how it's gonna "play out"

1. Donald Trump will apologize to Putin for Nato's expansion
2. All sanctions from Russia removed

in exchange, Trump will get a 20 year delay for NATO entry, instead of never
China will be pissed if Putin makes this deal
so will Iran
goodby BRICs
territory issues settled by fake referdum like in Crimea
Putin never losses an election...never...ever...

from 1918 to 1939 was only 21 years
that might be how long Ukraine has until Russo-Ukrainian War II

[Trenchcoat]

Musk isn't born in US though

You're right, surprised me he could easily pass for an American. Slight oversight there. Maybe can get his mate Donald to change that 🤔

[olgac]

agreed. This is what Putin wants. Then he will declare a victory in Russia and bobedobesie + kult lichnosti will consume Russia with a new force

[olgac]

You're right, surprised me he could easily pass for an American. Slight oversight there. Maybe can get his mate Donald to change that 🤔

Meanwhile people are already making fun of Musk's famous salute
http://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=639475995411586&rdid=hUDBu4j3Hlh8qvLV