Newt or Mitt VS Obama. Can either of 'em beat him?

[ML]

Living in California, I can't help but be repulse by all the talk about Ohio determining this election like it always had (electoral). I even heard on the radio early this morning how Obama can win narrowly, even if Romney won the nationwide popular vote, if he gets Ohio.

I posted this earlier in this thread.  It is not just Ohio; it is Ohio or Florida, plus some others.

- - - - - - - - - -

After recording the states that were solid and leaning Democrat, and solid and leaning Republican, there were 95 electoral college votes left in 7 swing (could not be put in solid or leaning status) states.
The swing states were Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Romney MUST carry one of either Florida (29 votes) or Ohio (18 votes).  If not, NO way he can win.

And, if he loses Florida, then he must win every other state listed.

If he wins Florida and loses Ohio, then there are 11 different combinations of the 7 remaining states that can provide him a win.

[LAman]

Although I very much dislike politics....I am intrigued with close races and behavior of people.
So for once every 4 years....MHO..Here it goes...
I think most important state races to look at Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia.
With close such close race......possible split between popular vote and electoral vote.
And possibly up to 2 week wait for election to be decided ( recounts and provisional votes).
Who's going to win??? Well, whoever takes Ohio will take the election......yea thats really sticking my neck out, huh!!!
 
 

[jone]

I have been in many parts of the country in the months leading up to election day.  Here are some observations:

1.  The enthusiasm for Romney is only recent.  Previously there was only disdain for Obama.

2.  The number of Romney signs posted in front of homes is overwhelmingly greater than those for Obama.  In 2008 it was just the opposite between McCain and Obama.

3.  The state poll prognosticators still have not figured in the enthusiasm factor.  I believe that many of the people who voted for Obama, especially the minorities, are just going to stay home.

4.  There is a real wind that is blowing ill will for the Obama campaign.  I can't place my finger on it, but it seems to be that their internal polls are telling them something that the rest of the country does not yet know.  I would guess that the number of independents that are breaking for Obama and the R+1 point of view of Gallup has shaken them up pretty badly.

5.  I would still like to see what Paul Ryan does in the First Congressional District in Wisconsin.  If he carries his normal vote total there (and there is no reason to believe he won't) then that district swings Wisconsin to a red state (it carries the Blue Collar towns of Kenosha and Racine which normally vote Democratic).

6.  Ultimately, there was some true good will that went towards the President in recent days with his handling of the Sandy storm.  But that good will does not translate into getting out to vote for Obama.

I predict that the race will be over by 1AM East Coast time.  Either Obama gets his minions to vote or Rommey wins big.  So far, in early voting, I haven't seen that Obama is getting his people to the polls.

[Gator]

It is good that voting results (and exit polls) are not reported until the close of voting.  Otherwise, the midday votes would show a huge lead for Obama, with Romney gaining only after people got off from work to vote.   

[Gator]

Let us do a "What If."
 
Everything is the same today except for one change.  Obama is still the incumbent with the same 4-year record.  However, what if Obama is the Republican incumbent and Romney the Democratic candidate.   
 
What would be the vote?   I assert it would be at least 60-40, maybe 67-33.   The   character and qualifications of Romney would be appreciated by most independents and many Republicans.
 
The character of Obama is what disgusts me the most.   That is why I voted for McGovern over Nixon in 1972 even though Nixon was the pro and got 61% of the vote.  And Obama is no Nixon with regard to leadership.

[Gator]

After recording the states that were solid and leaning Democrat, and solid and leaning Republican, there were 95 electoral college votes left in 7 swing (could not be put in solid or leaning status) states.
The swing states were Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

Romney MUST carry one of either Florida (29 votes) or Ohio (18 votes). 

Polls suggest that Obama will take Iowa and Neveda and even Wisconsin.  Thus, it's over according to the polls even if Romney takes Florida (almost a certainty) and Ohio (remotely possible but difficult given the auto bailout gift to the unions rather than the senior creditors). 
 
However, the best poll is now underway.   The surprise can happen.

[BC]

Oh that quest for instant satisfaction... knowing the outcome before it is known... (sound familiar?)

I really don't know if I am going to stay up all night watching the exit polls, predictions and media cheers of early victory.

What's it going to take to make me sleep through it all??

The ABC stores are probably having record sales today..  work productivity is at a record low....

LOL

Depressing is to hear that there are hundreds of lawyers already filing for court orders in key states.. that's really sad.  I really hope the results are definitive and not drawn out for weeks on end..

[GQBlues]

I got to my polling place this morning @ 6:20 AM anticipating a huge crowd. I was 4th in line and waited for the 7 AM opening. 2 women (both pretty, slim and young non-Russian - too early), and an older man.The poll opened and by this time the line was 2 blocks long. There's a lot of buzz going on around right now in these polling places. It's good to see *more* Americans are taking this election very seriously.

[Faux Pas]

Well, I don't know. The hay is in the barn and we'll just have to see how it turns out. I suspect I'll open my new bottle of Woodford Reserve and just sip as the returns roll in. Hoping for the best and expecting the worse.

[calmissile]

Well, I don't know. The hay is in the barn and we'll just have to see how it turns out. I suspect I'll open my new bottle of Woodford Reserve and just sip as the returns roll in. Hoping for the best and expecting the worse.

Actually, I might open my remaining bottle of UA  Neimiroff vodka and watch the returns.  LOL

[Gator]

I voted.  No line.  We make it easy for conservative neighborhoods to vote.
 
It took 15 minutes to read the proposed state constitutional amendments.  The St. Pete Times newspaper said to vote "no" so I voted "yes" for all.
 
Anyway, Mitt was seen celebrating early:

http://www.jibjab.com/view/heGUgWfDBgE2KvMp3JR8
 

[TheTraveler]

... The St. Pete Times newspaper said to vote "no" so I voted "yes"...

hahaha!!!  that formula works where i live, too!!!

[LAman]

yep......florida stuck a fork into romney.......

[GQBlues]

That figures...Gator's state has to #!@#! it all up!

[ML]

What????

I took this to the bank!!!!

. . .  if Romney takes Florida (almost a certainty) . . .

[pitbull]

Yes!!!!! Obama won!!!! Party!!!! 
 
And - the Senate majority!!!???!!!
 
Note to republicans: don't mess woth women! 

[ML]

How to explain difference between Arizona and New Mexico??

[GQBlues]

How to explain difference between Arizona and New Mexico??

New Mexico is a welfare state. Washington DC had Obama winning at 91%, LOL. Been to DC lately?

As of the time of this typing, the popular vote count has Romney ahead by 213,000 votes (total 98 million / 61% counted) ~ yet Obama is at 283 v 200 electoral.

[calmissile]

Even though I voted for Romney, the Republicans deserved to loose.  When you try to force religion down the throats of the electorate, you are likely to be doomed!  The women made the difference because they wanted choice over their decisions, rather than having government dictating those decisions in their behalf (abortion, birth control, etc.). 

Unfortunately, the economic future may well be very grim as well as our shift to more socialism.  We deserve what we select at election time!

Only a viable third party can turn the country around from where we are now.  The right wing owns the Republicans.  The welfare state and Socialists owns the Democrate party.  Middle America can only survive and thrive with a new party.  We need a new Ross Perot that is electable.  Neither present party is going to change their current agenda.

[Vasilisa]

Even though I voted for Romney, the Republicans deserved to loose.  When you try to force religion down the throats of the electorate, you are likely to be doomed!  The women made the difference because they wanted choice over their decisions, rather than having government dictating those decisions in their behalf (abortion, birth control, etc.). 

Unfortunately, the economic future may well be very grim as well as our shift to more socialism.  We deserve what we select at election time!

I agree (which is strange, I agree with calmissile) , I think if reps wanted to win they shouldn't have picked up Romney, I think if they had picked up someone a little bit  closer to the left side they would have had a really good chance to win. 
Romney sounded very close to what you can call insane in his speeches and it scared many intelligent  people away.

[LAman]

I agree (which is strange, I agree with calmissile) , I think if reps wanted to win they shouldn't have picked up Romney, I think if they had picked up someone a little bit  closer to the left side they would have had a really good chance to win. 
Romney sounded very close to what you can call insane in his speeches and it scared many intelligent  people away.

Actually Romney is to the left of most conservatives.
What I learned today......
Whites make up 72% of voters ( goes down 2% each election)...not good sign for 'the right'.
Women voted 55% for obama.
Latinos voted 70% for obama.
Medicinal mary jane as well as same sex marrige was approved in several states.....
Where is this country headed????  Surely not toward the 'good ole days' !!!!!!!!!
 As Aladin said...........it's a whole new world!!!!!!!!!
 

[ECOCKS]

America has spoken.
My sadness is deep but it's the path of choice they have taken. I doubt many of them see themselves as being/becoming Muslim, personally deprecate the conspiracy theories, am ambivalent about both birth certificates AND tax returns and see only those who wanted an easier life with fewer risks and a group of pseudo-intellectuals who were so insecure in their own minds yet smug in their opinions that they felt it wasn't "right" to be different. The most elitist group I have ever witnessed is the leftist liberals who hide behind their walls (real or imaginary) and wring their hands at the plight of the "less fortunate" or "those people of color".
I feel thankful that I grew up in an America that was at it's peak and regret that it has chosen to pursue the same path as the Romans, UK, Byzantines and all those others throughout history.  I cannot imagine what it must be like to be in our nation's military right now.

   IN Egypt's sandy silence, all alone,
       Stands a gigantic Leg, which far off throws
       The only shadow that the Desert knows:—
     "I am great OZYMANDIAS," saith the stone,
       "The King of Kings; this mighty City shows
     "The wonders of my hand."— The City's gone,—
       Nought but the Leg remaining to disclose
     The site of this forgotten Babylon.

     We wonder,—and some Hunter may express
     Wonder like ours, when thro' the wilderness
       Where London stood, holding the Wolf in chace,
     He meets some fragment huge, and stops to guess
       What powerful but unrecorded race
       Once dwelt in that annihilated place.
 

   – Horace Smith.
So, my grandchildren will grow up in a country that has only memories of greatness and declining expectations. Hopefully, we won't go through that boring, post-colonial phase the Brits went through and just settle back into being members of the pack. In a few more years we will be happy knowing we're still in the "top 30 countries" and sit, chugging on our pipes and reminiscing (quietly, I hope) about the glory days of our country. Historical inevitability. Good luck to our successor(s), the world goes on.
I'll keep my passport (for now anyway) but America is just the country I was born in.....forget nationalism, it's all about taking what you can, grabbing opportunities, building networks and holding on to power from this point forward. There is still a bit of frontier out there. Places where opportunities exist and freedom can be found as long as you stay below the radar.

[Cameraguy]

Even though I voted for Romney, the Republicans deserved to loose.  When you try to force religion down the throats of the electorate, you are likely to be doomed!

 
Agreed, but it's never stopped the GOP from embracing the Fundies or conservatives from voting for a president (TWICE!) who says he was told by God to invade Iraq.

OTOH, Obama didn't deserve a second term. Not even close.

Only a viable third party can turn the country around from where we are now.

Which is exactly why I voted Libertarian and didn't throw my vote away to the the lesser of two evils. You can't bemoan the lack of third parties if you don't vote for them!

Medicinal mary jane as well as same sex marrige was approved in several states.....
Where is this country headed????  Surely not toward the 'good ole days' !!!!!!!!!

Well, if the 'good ole days' includes the government interfering in the private lives and personal choices of citizens that don't harm others, then I say good riddance!

[BC]

The stagnant republican party will simply have to adapt to today's demographics to stay in the game.. but in doing so would that not make themselves obsolete by having to accept a wider set of principles?

Watch the second and last debate... how much more towards the middle/left will a future candidate have to move to be successful and still maintain a distinct party identity?

What I see happening over time is that the conservative party will wilt to an extremist minority with possible splits of the remaining, forming a new party..  then again maybe there will be a time where the party concept simply fades.

In any case, I am happy to see that the democratic process indeed worked without dispute and endless recounts.

Nothing to moan about.

[BC]

 
Quote from: LAman on Today at 07:45:20

Medicinal mary jane as well as same sex marrige was approved in several states.....
Where is this country headed????  Surely not toward the 'good ole days' !!!!!!!!!

Well, if the 'good ole days' includes the government interfering in the private lives and personal choices of citizens that don't harm others, then I say good riddance!

Putting legal pot and free sex on the ballot is a pretty good way to win a state.