More Bad News for Russia

[JayH]

First, let me state that I know nothing about military capability, even as I served 4 years in US Navy way back when.

However, I cannot buy into the idea that Russia is weak militarily.

Again, I am not the expert that some here might be, but . . .

* Despite being backward at the time, Russia (with help of millions of sacrificed Ukrainians) did rise to the challenge and defeat invincible (up to then) German military in the East areas.

* Despite what is being said about Russia's aircraft problems, their planes did cause USA a lot of trouble in Korea.

* Despite many general problems ascribed to Russia, they did help the North Viet kick USA out of Vietnam.

* Despite all the weaknesses, Russia did negotiate us to a stalemate regarding Cuba.

In short, I see no reason to believe that Russia cannot rise to the challenge today, overcome all odds, survive, and continue to give us trouble for the indefinite future; with Putin or without him.

Note: I say here Russia but fully realize it was USSR back then.

Weak is a relative term. It is better to say weaker that the US and allies.
There is no doubt that a lot of damage would be done in a total war situation-- in that scenario it would be Russia that was wiped out to not see the other side of their handiwork.
The years of neglect and technical inferiority  would guarantee  that-- and the example above of the Russian Navy  is typical. Putin started an urgent  upgrade across the board of military capacity  back in 2010 ( or earlier?) but this is still very much a work in progress--  and their own targets were only 2016-2018 for any real obvious affect to come to fruition.
In a limited war--eg as in eastern Ukraine( maybe Crimea) --  a fully committed west would do an awful lot of damage very fast to the Russian military.
It leads to the question of how Putin would react- I have commented many times previously--he will push the west past the point where he thinks he has their "bluff" covered-- and it is that simple reason why the west needs to respond unequivocally to make it clear to Putin that he is going to be the loser-- just how big a loss is in his own decision making.
Right now--the Russians are massing again in Ukraine to attack.These attacks will be much larger and more coordinated than previously.I am not convinced that the Ukrainians alone will be able resist effectively.
Even a little help from the west  would stop Russia-but-- we are still sitting with our fingers in our ears.Putin can be stopped now--or these problems will be ongoing .

[sleepycat]

Oh dear!
Huilo's plan to become junior partner to China not working out so well...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kremlin-pivot-china-slowed-projects-102052260.html

[Boethius]

Interesting article on the economy-


http://news.vice.com/article/russias-economy-is-a-mess-and-its-problems-arent-going-away

[alex330]

Ad another recent article on the WSJ on the Russian economy.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/for-russia-oil-collapse-has-soviet-echoes-1441215966

The World is embracing alternative energy, solar tech is fast emerging, and a supergiant gas field was just discovered off the coast of Egypt. The future is not looking very bright for Russia if they do not quickly diversify.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/09/03/egypt-gas-discovery-more-bad-news-for-russia.aspx

[Brasscasing]

Canadian soldiers land in Ukraine for training mission

..."Less than a year after Prime Minister Stephen Harper told Russian President Vladimir Putin to “get out of Ukraine,” Canadian soldiers have landed in the troubled country.

There are 150 of them to be precise — military personnel with expertise in explosives detonation and other battlefields skills."...

..."These troops are there to train and prepare the Ukrainian army for battle."...

...“We’re here to pass on our knowledge to our Ukrainian partners to ensure they have the skills to survive and thrive on the battlefield,” Lt.-Col. Jason Guiney — commander of Canada’s Joint Task Force Ukraine — said in a statement sent to me by the Canadian Armed Forces. “Our soldiers are ready for this mission and we’re looking forward to being in the field and working on the fundamentals of soldiering.”...

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/09/01/canadian-soldiers-land-in-ukraine-for-training-mission

Solid wording (my bolded). Guiney's statement says more than meets the eye.

Brass

[alex330]

[AkMike]

 We will initiate stripping Russia of veto right at UN General Assembly session, Poroshenko says


President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has called for discussing the deprivation of Russia's veto right at the UN Security Council at the session of the UN General Assembly in September.





Poroshenko said at the annual meeting of the Yalta European Strategy (YES) in Kyiv Sept. 11, Censor.NET reports citing Interfax-Ukraine.


"It is time to pool efforts in order to reform and improve the institutions and instruments which are bound to serve the principles and norms of international law, i.e. the veto right of Russia at the UN Security Council. Russia's aggression against Ukraine has vividly demonstrated the shortcomings of this mechanism. Hopefully, we will launch a related debate at the forthcoming 70th session of the UN General Assembly," he said.

Petro Poroshenko believes that the anti-Ukrainian policy of Russia in Donbas and Crimea "has completely ruined" the post-WWII international security systemSource: http://en.censor.net.ua/n351514Source: http://en.censor.net.ua/n351514

[Brasscasing]

The Russians only now begin to comprehend the depth of their folly in making those sweetheart deals with the Chinese last year...

Is Russia shifting focus from China to India for its oil barrels?

..."With China's economy on the backburner, and its oil fields on the US sanctions list, Russia is all set to sell its oil to India, a report in OilPrice.com has said."...

..."According to the OilPrice report, China's deals with Russia have often met with dead-ends, and with the world's second largest economy's growth slowing, trade between the two countries has fallen."...

..."According to the report, China and Russia had made a gas deal in May 2014, which included the construction of two pipelines to transport Russia’s gas to China. The deal was suspended in July, leaving Russia in the lurch."...

..."The report states that Russia's exports to China were down 20% compared to last year, while China only invested under $1.6 billion into Russia in 2014, when Russia invested a whopping $151.5 billion during the same year into the Chinese economy."...

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-is-russia-shifting-focus-from-china-to-india-for-its-oil-barrels-2125053

The Chinese must be laughing all the way to the bank.

All this talk here and elsewhere about the Russia/Asia 'alternate' economy displacing the US economically, not to mention "de-dollarization"... So much for the mighty Russian economic empire. Pffft. What a hoot.

And now what really happened; As several members here predicted, the Chinese in their quiet way took the Russians to the cleaners - fleeced them.

We haven't seen any champagne drinking photo ops with Putin and the Chinese Premier lately. Gee, you think Putin's finally figured out he's been played for a sucker? 

The Indians are probably wringing their hands in anticipation of their own payday.

Brass

[AkMike]

  The Russian Empire is taken to the cleaners by Chinese coolies.. 

[AkMike]

Russian Priest Arrested for Selling Drugs to Convicts
The Moscow Times
Sep. 16 2015 20:17

A deacon at a monastery in Russia's Samara region was arrested while attempting to deliver 50 grams of heroin to a local prison colony, Vesti.ru news website reported Wednesday.

The priest, whose name was not disclosed, was under the influence of drugs himself at the time of his arrest, the report said.

He confessed to smuggling 150-200 grams of heroin to the penitentiary every week for the last month, arriving by taxi at a certain spot and throwing packages containing the drugs over the fence.

The priest joined the monastery in 2009. In 2014 he quit his job and started using drugs, Vesti.ru reported.

In 2015 he returned to the monastery and shortly after received an offer from an unidentified individual — who reportedly also introduced himself as a priest — to start delivering drugs to the prison colony in exchange for money and heroin fixes.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-priest-arrested-for-selling-drugs-to-convicts/531137.html

[mendeleyev]

Depending on whose estimates one trusts, yesterday's opposition rally in Moscow drew between 4-8 thousand marchers. They were restricted to an area in southern Moscow, and many claim that they were forbidden entrance to the rally. However, it was the first public opposition event since the rally following Nemtsov's murder, so perhaps the opposition is starting to emerge from underground.




They very wisely kept it "patriotic" with Russian flags and symbols, but the themes of "Putin must go" to "No war in Ukraine" to "Remember Boris (Nemtsov)" was also in the forefront.

[AkMike]

Turchinov: Fundamental documents signed between Ukraine and NATO.

Kyiv, Tuesday September 22

After an extended meeting, Secretary of the National Defense and Security Council of Ukraine (NSDC) Oleksandr Turchynov and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg have signed the roadmap of the partnership program on strategic communications between the NSDC and the NATO International Secretariat.

The partnership program is aimed at implementing comprehensive support for Ukraine in the strategic communications sector, particularly to counteract Russian propaganda and inform the public of the ongoing events in Ukraine.

In addition, Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense of Ukraine, Chairman of the Interdepartmental Commission on Military and Technical Cooperation and Export Control of Ukraine Oleg Hladkovskyy together with a representative of NATO Defence Investment E.Heroldom signed a Joint Declaration on strengthening military-technical cooperation between Ukraine and NATO .

The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg signed the Agreement between Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty on the status of NATO representation in Ukraine.
http://uawire.org/news/ukraine-and-nato-roadmap-signed

[AkMike]

NATO signs agreements with Ukrainian government

22/09 18:31 CET




NATO’s secretary general has taken part in a meeting of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, during which a number of agreements were signed.

They included partnership in communications and agreement on the status of NATO’s Mission in Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko said he might bring up the issue of peacekeepers in the Donbass at the upcoming UN General Assembly.

“Russian troops are present in Ukraine. And they continue to support separatists with training, with equipment, with command and control. And therefore I call on Russia to withdraw all its forces from Eastern Ukraine and to fully implement the Minsk agreements,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Russia continues to deny involvement in the conflict in eastern Ukraine, but from being more than 60% against NATO membership before fighting began, Ukrainian public opinion has changed dramatically.

“About 64% of Ukrainian voters said they would vote for joining NATO. They indicated: the main reason for joining was that it would guarantee the safety of the country in future. The second reason was that NATO membership would be the first step on the road to join the EU,” said Sociologist Maria Zolkina from the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation.

Earlier Poroshenko and Stoltenberg reviewed troops at the Peacekeeping and Security Centre of the Ukrainian army in Lviv in western Ukraine. however NATO once again declined to supply Ukraine with weapons.

“Petro Poroshenko has announced that Ukraine will hold a referendum on joining the military alliance. However, the poll will not take place in the near future. Before the referendum is held, the state needs to implement a number of serious reforms. First of all, Ukraine should reestablish peace and stability in its eastern regions and bring Ukrainian Armed Forces in line with NATO standards,” reports euronews’ Maria Korenyuk.
http://www.euronews.com/2015/09/22/nato-signs-agreements-with-ukrainian-government/

[AkMike]

Pro-Russian militants pledge war if Ukraine moves toward NATO

23.09.2015 | 18:07

 

The so-called leader of the self-styled breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) Alexander Zakharchenko threatened to withdraw from the Minsk Agreement, if Kyiv starts the procedure of Ukraine's accession to NATO.

"Statements by [Ukrainian President Petro] Poroshenko and his representative in the Minsk talks [Leonid] Kuchma about Ukraine’s need to  join NATO are aimed at the destruction of the Minsk Agreement. If Ukraine starts organizing a referendum on accession to NATO, or other procedures, the "DPR" will exit from the Minsk Agreement immediately and proceed with the cleansing of the whole territory of Donbas from Kyiv’s occupation," Zakharchenko said, according to one of pro-terrorist websites.

As UNIAN reported earlier, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko plans to hold a NATO membership referendum. According to him, more than 60% of Ukrainians already support the accession, and the number of supporters is growing.

It was earlier reported that Zakharchenko urged to prepare for a new war with Ukraine.
Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1132300-pro-russian-militants-pledge-war-if-ukraine-moves-toward-nato.html

[mendeleyev]

Retired general David Petraeus, warned today that Vladimir Putin could “lash out” and attack the West within the next two years because he is running out of money.  Gen. Petraeus said that Putin will become more desperate and would perform a “suicidal act of violence” as western sanctions wipe out his country’s cash fund.

http://yournewswire.com/retired-general-warns-putin-could-lash-out-attack-west-within-2-years/

[mendeleyev]

In uploading this link, many forum members perhaps know that I do not support the American strategy on Syria. However, the article deserves a chance to add to the debate. I do agree with the assessment that Syria and Ukraine are part of a broader framework for CCCP.2

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/09/putin-syria-ukraine-213173

[jone]

Mendy,

In the beginning of that article it asks the question if Russia is strategic or tactical.  Anyone who has followed Russian politics for years (like you have, Mendy) can only answer 'tactical'.  Strategic does not work for V.V. Putin.   

It bears witness that when Russia went into Krim, Putin had no idea what the outcome would be.  Now Ukraine has demonstrated that it is far more capable of defending itself than Russia had ever anticipated.  And it is becoming more capable each month.   

The idea that the US has no coherent strategy in the Middle East is pretty apparent to anyone who looks.  But to try and tie the whole policy thing between Syria and Ukraine together in a nice little bow is ludicrous. 

While there is a feeble attempt to re-institute the former Soviet Union type dependencies of some countries to Russia, the current strategy only strengthens those countries outside of Russia's current orbit, which include the Baltics, and most of the Warsaw Pact nations.  (Can you imagine Germany wanting to go back to Russia's orbit?)

I have been in Russia for a month, now, and believe that the general populace is not engaged in national politics.  They simply see Putin as the 'Home Team'.  The sanctions have not demonstrated any impact that I have seen since I have been here.  The only thing they have done is make my dollar worth quite a bit more.

On a more personal note, I did beat my woman at Billiards last night.  We enjoyed some cheese balls and great dipping breads not to mention foreign imports involving malt beverages not on the sanctioned list.  My victory earned me a back massage.

[fathertime]

It bears witness that when Russia went into Krim, Putin had no idea what the outcome would be.  Now Ukraine has demonstrated that it is far more capable of defending itself than Russia had ever anticipated.  And it is becoming more capable each month.   

You are asserting what Russia anticipated, which in itself isn't factual....

     

The idea that the US has no coherent strategy in the Middle East is pretty apparent to anyone who looks.  But to try and tie the whole policy thing between Syria and Ukraine together in a nice little bow is ludicrous. 

 

We (the US) may not have a coherent strategy, but it is quite possible that there is NOW a tie between Syria and Ukraine, from the Russian POV....although the article may not have nailed what the link is.  Another poster believes that Russia is going to try to milk the US in Syria, which is also possible.   


Fathertime! 

[jone]

And you give Russia much more credit than it deserves.  The entire Ukrainian strategy was knee jerk from beginning. But I am sure, through your intimate knowledge and deep conversations with Sergei Lavrov that you will now try and sell the idea that Russia's strategy in Ukraine was thought out.

Russia had long coveted Krim as a lost piece of empire.  The use of an armed takeover of a parliament and subsequent bogus referendum to acquire a piece of land has consequences that could not have been anticipated.  That was my assertion.  In case you don't personally remember your win/win strategy, you were refuting that Russia's takeover was bad for Ukraine. 

In the long term, you may have been right, but not for the reasons that you were supposing.  The political shift away from Russia was guaranteed by taking away most of the Russian nationals in both Krim and Eastern Ukraine.  Controlling Ukraine is becoming more and more elusive by the day.  Especially since Kyiv has now declared Russia a belligerent and has been pushed to seek NATO recognition.  Such could be construed as positive events.

You were part of a small opposition chorus that chortled at the idea of Russia carving off part of Ukraine and everyone going their happy way.  Tell us again that it worked out well for Russia. 

[Boethius]

Part of Russia's strategy, I believe, as noted, is to move their jihadis from Russian soil to the Middle East.

I disagree that the US lacks a coherent strategy.  I believe its strategy is just to back away.  Obama stated so much in campaigns, and it was something the world stated it wanted.  So, time for others to step up.  Obama stated America needed to be self reliant in the energy field, and it is.  Before the drop in oil prices, America was exporting oil.  I think Obama views the Middle East as a, to paraphrase, "lose lose" proposition for the U.S.

I also disagree with the article's assertion that Russia is reasserting itself in the Sunni Arab world.  It has tried to do so, but largely failed.

I'd say, if Russia is intent on dominating the Middle East, let it do so.  It will have as much success as half a century of Western interference in the region has enjoyed.


From the article -

but Russia's risk/reward calculus is far different from ours.

That is true, and Russia, being ruled by the former KGB, mostly ruthless killers and morally barren individuals, employs tactics which, at least optically, rather than actually, Western powers do not, and there is no public moral outrage/opinion which has to be considered or mollified.

[jone]

Boe,

There is a great divide in the United States regarding foreign policy right now.  While the State Department may be giving instructions to the US diplomatic teams, the opposition, in the form of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Chair, Corker, have strategic differing viewpoints.  Obama cannot sell his foreign policy and has had to use dodges to implement his strategy.  That was what I mean by the US not having a coherent strategy.

I know I am not unique on this forum in thinking that the US has abandoned its position as the leader of the free world in the isolationist and fend for yourself mentalities promulgated by the Obama administration.

[Boethius]

There is a great divide in the United States regarding foreign policy right now.  While the State Department may be giving instructions to the US diplomatic teams, the opposition, in the form of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the Chair, Corker, have strategic differing viewpoints.  Obama cannot sell his foreign policy and has had to use dodges to implement his strategy.  That was what I mean by the US not having a coherent strategy.

OK, got it.

I know I am not unique on this forum in thinking that the US has abandoned its position as the leader of the free world in the isolationist and fend for yourself mentalities promulgated by the Obama administration.

I agree with this, however, were I American, I would be asking myself why we are doing most of the heavy lifting (as has the UK).  Why should our soldiers die, or come home without limbs, in order to keep hordes of refugees from overtaking Europe, or to install regimes somewhat hostile to us? 

[mendeleyev]

Jone, one small correction:

The taking of Crimea was actually well thought out and demonstrated the prowess of Russian military planning.

Months prior to the event, the Kremlin paid for several public opinion polls in Crimea to judge how much support or opposition they would encounter with such a move. Those began around the time of the events in Maidan.

In Security Council meetings dealing with the crisis in Kyiv, often the opening of those are open to press, ministers were briefed on how much money Russia would save if there was no longer any need to rent base and port facilities, and if Russia no longer needed to honour negotiated deals with Ukraine on gas. What they failed to calculate was the West's reaction and the sanctions. They made a bet that a weak USA leader would wring his hands, but do nothing.

The initial invasion was a thing of terrifying "beauty" as waves of well-coordinated helicopters (stationed near Sochi), flew in elite, but unmarked, paratroopers and special ops troops.

The article speculates that the military presence in Sochi was a prelude to invading Crimea, but I do not think so. I believe that those were meant for another incursion into Georgia. Putin had previously taken responsibility for the 2008 war in Georgia, saying that he and Medvedev had ordered the invasion based on the discovery of "terror camps" in neighboring Russian controlled Abkhazia, which he claimed were being planted by Georgia in order to disrupt the forthcoming Olympics in Sochi.

All he needed was some sort of terror attack from the Caucasus, and he would have finished what had been left uncompleted in Georgia. This time he would not have to face the same American president who had flown Georgian troops from Afghanistan back to Georgia, who had left those American military transport planes on the tarmac at Tbilisi, and then informed Putin that any move on the Georgian capital would be treated as a declaration of war on the United States.

The events on Maidan put those military assets in the right place at the right time.

There were so many things that were already in place for the invasion to be successful: an advance team of "local" militia who seemed very well equipped, a Russian citizen who just happened on the scene in time for the expulsion of the Crimean (pro-Russian) parliament, and who amazingly just happened to be selected (without a vote) as the new Prime Minister of Crimea.

The professionally printed notices for a referendum just seemed to spring up from under a rock somewhere. And the ballot itself, while someone "forgot" to include an option to stay with Ukraine, did offer Crimean citizens two options: (one) was to exit Ukraine and join the Russian Federation, and (two) was to exit Ukraine and become a "protectorate" of the RF.

Finally, one must remember that Putin only nominally tolerated Yunakonvict, most of the time letting him deal with Medvedev. He would likely have thrown Viktor under the bus no matter what ultimately happened in Kyiv. Events in Kyiv just happened to play nicely to Putin's liking in regards to Crimea.

[fathertime]

And you give Russia much more credit than it deserves.  The entire Ukrainian strategy was knee jerk from beginning. But I am sure, through your intimate knowledge and deep conversations with Sergei Lavrov that you will now try and sell the idea that Russia's strategy in Ukraine was thought out.

What is wrong, can't handle a different perspective? It does not require a visit from Lavrov to dispute your statement.  Did you meet with Lavrov when you drew your conclusion that I questioned nicely. 

Russia had long coveted Krim as a lost piece of empire.  The use of an armed takeover of a parliament and subsequent bogus referendum to acquire a piece of land has consequences that could not have been anticipated.  That was my assertion.  In case you don't personally remember your win/win strategy, you were refuting that Russia's takeover was bad for Ukraine. 

In the long term, you may have been right, but not for the reasons that you were supposing.  The political shift away from Russia was guaranteed by taking away most of the Russian nationals in both Krim and Eastern Ukraine.  Controlling Ukraine is becoming more and more elusive by the day.  Especially since Kyiv has now declared Russia a belligerent and has been pushed to seek NATO recognition.  Such could be construed as positive events.

You were part of a small opposition chorus that chortled at the idea of Russia carving off part of Ukraine and everyone going their happy way.  Tell us again that it worked out well for Russia. 

You are going off on a strange tangent, my recent comments had nothing to do with any of this.  Would you like to rehash old discussions or something?  If so, I recall you guaranteeing a full Russian invasion of Ukraine, which never happened. 


To your point, I would suspect that Russia knew that it was possible they were opening up a can of worms with Ukraine, and weren't as surprised as you seem to want to act like they were....The possibility of losing the control they had of a large chunk of space without a fight wasn't going to happen on Putin's watch.  That is my opinion.


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

I would suspect that Russia knew that it was possible they were opening up a can of worms with Ukraine, and weren't as surprised as you seem to want to act like they were.

I disagree.  I believe the Kremlin assumed Ukraine would capitulate.  They never anticipated a fight.  They also assumed all of Ukraine from Kharkiv, east and south, would welcome Russian annexation.