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Author Topic: Euromaidan in Russia  (Read 1151 times)

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lordtiberius

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Euromaidan in Russia
« on: December 20, 2014, 06:22:21 PM »
Facebook blocked the Navalny event on January 15 in Russia.

The leaders of Belarus and Kazakhstan will meet Poroshenko.  Kazakhstan may extend credit to Ukraine.  A ring of fire surrounds the President of Russia


Ben Judah mocks western journalists who quote opinion polls inside dictatorships.

Offline mendeleyev

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Re: Euromaidan in Russia
« Reply #1 on: December 20, 2014, 08:16:33 PM »
At least three things, perhaps more, going on.

- Both Nazarbayev and Lukashenko are plenty nervous about Russian statements of certain countries not really qualifying as countries. Odd, given that somehow Kazakhstan might not be a real country while Abkhazia and South Ossetia are.

- Luka is enjoying somewhat of a renaissance as a rising star of regional diplomacy in the eyes of some European leaders. Never mind that it is illegal for his people at home to clap their hands in public (he views that as a silent but forbidden form of protest). The "last dictator in Europe" is enjoying a moment in the sun, and don't forget that he has always lusted for the office now held by Vladimir Putin and hoped that somehow the "Union State" between Russia and Belarus would give him a shot.

- Then there is the obvious. The Customs Union/Eurasian trading bloc was not Putin's idea, it was the brainchild of Nazarbayev. Both these men understand that they need Ukraine to join the Union, and more importantly they understand that if Ukraine joins, then the three of them together (and soon add Uzbekistan) could stand up to any shenanigans coming from the Kremlin and the Armenians (who will always back the Kremlin).
The Mendeleyev Journal. http://mendeleyevjournal.com Member: Congress of Russian Journalists; ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.RU (Journalist-Russia); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.UA (Journalist-Ukraine); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.KZ (Journalist-Kazakhstan); ПОРТАЛ ЖУРНАЛИСТОВ (Portal of RU-UA Journalists); Просто Журналисты ("Just Journalists").

Offline jone

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Re: Euromaidan in Russia
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2014, 09:49:03 PM »
Wait!

Why then is the Customs Union widely espoused by Russia as a means to combat the European Union?  Did I miss something?  (Obviously, I miss quite a bit.  But here it seems that this is something major!)

Mendy, you're saying that the Satellite Countries need the Customs Union to combat the Kremlin's influence?  Or is it more of a case of the having enough dog tail fleas to wag the dog?  Or is it a way to have enough logs tied together in a raft to make the raft navigable?

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lordtiberius

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Re: Euromaidan in Russia
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2014, 10:00:27 PM »

Offline mendeleyev

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Re: Euromaidan in Russia
« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2014, 01:48:59 AM »
 
Quote
you're saying that the Satellite Countries need the Customs Union to combat the Kremlin's influence?  Or is it more of a case of the having enough dog tail fleas to wag the dog?  Or is it a way to have enough logs tied together in a raft to make the raft navigable?

Whether they actually need it, or just feel that they need it, is open for debate. Apparently they feel so.

Yes.

Very much so. They feel that the Customs Union will be limited without Ukraine's consumer market, and especiallyUkraine's farm production. When Putin whined like a spoiled baby at the Minsk summit regarding the EU's failure to ask his permission to court Ukraine on an association agreement, important reasons he gave included having to run the Eurasian Union without the Ukrainian market. Based on population alone, Ukraine (49 million) is a giant when compared to Belarus (8 million), Kazakhstan (17 million) and Armenia (3 million).

Polls conducted indicate that somewhere around 22% of Ukrainians want to join the Customs Union while a much larger majority hopes to someday join the EU. The Russian speaking minority in Ukraine's East (between 25-40% of the population, depending on specific region, is ethnic Russian) heavily favours joining the Customs Union with Russia.

Uzbekistan keeps dragging its feet, and will probably join, but then again maybe not. One of Putin's prime sales pitches to the Uzbeks is the attraction of having Moscow coordinate Eurasian security. Tashkent is increasingly worried about "ISIS-like" organizations at home, and having the Russian Army to help do the policing might be something that the Uzbek's find attractive. However the prospect of having Moscow lead security for the joined nations has contributed in Belarus and Kazakhstan becoming more cautious as of late.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2014, 11:46:30 AM by mendeleyev »
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Offline mendeleyev

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Re: Euromaidan in Russia
« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2014, 02:22:35 AM »
The government has come to look fairly stupid in their harassment of Navalny. During the last trial, prosecutors accused him of stealing timber from a lumber firm for which he had been hired to look into corporate corruption. The prosecution's star "witness" was the man whom Navalny had put behind bars as a result of the corruption investigation.

During that trial, Navalny's defense was limited in how they could respond to charges, and in come cases charges were filed but this defense was not allowed to respond at all. In a sign of sheer stupidity, the prosecution charged him with stealing more timber than the company in fact had produced. Oops.

As projected, his sentence was suspended and he was allowed to run in the mayoral contest in Moscow. It was a move to show the world coming to Sochi that Russia was a nice and just place to live. Another oops. Projected to win less than ten percent of the vote, he raked in 27%, a figure that both shocked and pissed off a government that had raided his campaign offices during the race and smeared his campaign with all sorts of potential fraud accusations.

Since then he has been under house arrest for supposedly defrauding a Russian unit of the French cosmetics firm Yves Rocher. The problem is that Yves Rocher is so far not cooperating with the prosecution because they cannot be sure that a crime was committed.

Although the former timber case resulted in a suspended sentence, prosecutors petitioned the court to include those charges in the current verdict.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2014, 11:43:48 AM by mendeleyev »
The Mendeleyev Journal. http://mendeleyevjournal.com Member: Congress of Russian Journalists; ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.RU (Journalist-Russia); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.UA (Journalist-Ukraine); ЖУРНАЛИСТЫ.KZ (Journalist-Kazakhstan); ПОРТАЛ ЖУРНАЛИСТОВ (Portal of RU-UA Journalists); Просто Журналисты ("Just Journalists").

lordtiberius

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Re: Euromaidan in Russia
« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2014, 07:09:21 AM »

 

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