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Author Topic: % Chance  (Read 2757 times)

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Offline XMan

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% Chance
« on: March 20, 2012, 09:05:52 PM »
Reading some of the recent threads, especially concerning "psychological damage," etc., has me wondering what the actual percentage chance is that one will be successful in the long-term. 

Clearly, some folks are successful (which can be defined in many ways, but I am thinking something significantly longer than 2 years and a day of marriage). 

Thinking about the long list of various potential pitfalls:
scammers
pro-daters
desperate women / men
"psychonologically damaged" women / men
misleading profiles / backgrounds
unrealistic expectations
general cultural issues
language barrier
issues with children in general
issues specifically with custody
etc.

That's probably a very short list, yet I think just the items listed there are fairly daunting.
 
There are times it seems just shy of miraculous that it works for anyone.  I wish I knew the actual number of men (and women for that matter) who seriously consider this, and in the end how many not only cross the finish line but actually enjoy it enough to celebrate anniversaries. 

Just for the heck it, let's say it's a round number, 100,000 men in a single year who start out.  That may be wildly inaccurate, but just for the sake of having a round number, 100,000.  (For all i know it could be a quarter of that or triple that number.)

Best guess is 5% or less ever get on a plane.  So now there are 5,000.  Given the myriad of reasons above (plus others I did not list), do even 10% of the 5% get to the point of being engaged?  Because now that number becomes 500.  How many men get engaged but it falls apart prior to "I do?"  Half?  So now it's 250?  How many of those gentlemen made the right choice, OR are not freaks of nature themselves who by their own abnormalities bring about the demise of their imagined wedded bliss?  40%? So now we have 100 who "succeed."

So if that is correct (and believe me, by NO means am I saying it is, I am making up everything except the 5% of men who actually get on a plane, which I believe is probably pretty close), if you are starting out writing your first letter you have a .1% chance of success. 

How wildly incorrect are those estimates?  Given the length of time it takes to get a fiance visa, I may be hugely off base and the percentage may be far higher.  Again, I not suggesting these numbers are correct.  I would be happy to see real statistics. 

In the end I am just curious what the odds are that one will be successful. 

If you knew your chances were as small as .1%, or even 1o times higher at 1%, would you still attempt it? 

Or do you think your own personality traits and skill set (and the fact that you look 10 years younger than you really are) make all estimates pointless? 


Offline ML

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Re: % Chance
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2012, 09:36:23 PM »
My bedtime now, so I can't give you the exact number, but I am pretty sure it is between 5.07 and 6.23 percent.   :)

But more seriously; it is a real crap shoot, just like many other things in life.
A beautiful woman is pleasant to look at, but it is easier to live with a pleasant acting one.

Offline LAman

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Re: % Chance
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2012, 09:47:04 PM »
 
 In the end I am just curious what the odds are that one will be successful. 

If you knew your chances were as small as .1%, or even 1o times higher at 1%, would you still attempt it? 

Or do you think your own personality traits and skill set (and the fact that you look 10 years younger than you really are) make all estimates pointless?
[/quote/]
Well, based on the men I have seen in this pursuit and read on several forums(including some recent threads here)......I think my chances are  roughly over 40%!!   ;D
Life isn't tied with a bow, but it's still a gift

Offline newjason

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Re: % Chance
« Reply #3 on: March 21, 2012, 01:15:30 AM »
from my experience, no I would not.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2012, 10:19:48 PM by newjason »

Offline Patagonie

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Re: % Chance
« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2012, 06:35:25 AM »
I'm with you about this very low rate.
No more than 5 % are coming. Half only can really support the endeavor because a lot understimate the cost of the whole process.
Among those who are coming a lot disappear between MOB business and free lance prodaters.
Some are not persistent for miscellaneous reasons (find a local one, lost their job, health problem, change their opinion).
So between the starting line and the marriage + five years with and FSU woman the rate is probably less than 0.001 %.
But on an other hand as you know that you are ready to travel and have enough to afford such adventure you multiply your chances by 40. If you avoid scammers, Big MOB agencies and prodaters, which is not so difficult you increase your chances in an outstanding manner.
After each guy must understand that dating in FSU is like to dating locally : you need time to understand your compatibility and psychological issues.
For example during my travels i met one who was having a big problem with alcoohol, one with a disabled child (thing i don't want, my personal choice, but no one told from the scratch), one who was showing a big tendency of  Histrionic Disorders Personality. To know this you need to spend time with people, at least one or two travels.
 So i think if you are not foolish and you are persistent, if you have enough time and money, you must success, just a question of time. And you need to be not in hurry and not too foolish in your choice.

"Je glissais through the paper wall, an angel in the hand, s taboy. I lay on the floor, surgi des chants de Maldoror, je mix l'intégrale de mes nuits de crystal, i belong to the festival.

Offline BC

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Re: % Chance
« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2012, 06:49:00 AM »
Statistics never apply to the individual so it breaks down like this:

Anyone getting on a plane has a 100% better chance than someone that stays on the couch.

Whether it works or not for an individual is 50/50, either it does or does not.

These are the only valid statistics one should be concerned with.

Online Faux Pas

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Re: % Chance
« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2012, 08:24:37 AM »
Statistics never apply to the individual so it breaks down like this:

Anyone getting on a plane has a 100% better chance than someone that stays on the couch.

Whether it works or not for an individual is 50/50, either it does or does not.

These are the only valid statistics one should be concerned with.

without a doubt, the most accurate statistics one will ever find in this pursuit

 

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