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Author Topic: More Bad News for Russia  (Read 1075760 times)

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Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5325 on: June 22, 2017, 11:02:37 AM »

Whilst I'm sure Crimea is a back-water - just as intended by Ukraine -

But the 'before' images show what it was like before the invasion. Lively and  flourishing, unlike the situation today.  Right off the top of my head I'd say Russia has tossed it into the "backwater' position not Ukraine.  :rolleyes:

Offline jone

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« Reply #5326 on: June 22, 2017, 11:30:20 AM »
But the 'before' images show what it was like before the invasion. Lively and  flourishing, unlike the situation today.  Right off the top of my head I'd say Russia has tossed it into the "backwater' position not Ukraine.  :rolleyes:

Mike,

In reading these notes of yours, I'm reminded of something FDR said about Stalin and Churchill. He said, Churchill runs around worrying about the little things - like a piece of land that would increase his empire.  Stalin worries about the big things - like winning the war. 

In my mind, Putin is trying to win the little things.  But he does not invest in his infrastructure to support those acquisitions.  The bridge from Kerch, while desirable, will only provide traffic from Russia.  As long as the sanctions are in place there won't be any flights to Crimea from European countries, there will not be a vital economy, and there will not be the tourist base in the summer to provide holdover income for the rest of the year and make the Crimean economy work.

Putin is playing with a busted flush.   He has alienated those who would do the most trade with him.  His only true satellite state, at this time, appears to be Armenia.  His attempt at creating a trading group has failed.  His activity in Ukraine was a direct intervention, intended to overthrow the current Ukrainian government.  Instead, too many Ukrainians have returned from the fronts in caskets.  And a generation of Ukrainians will NEVER trust the Russian government.
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

Offline Boethius

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« Reply #5327 on: June 22, 2017, 10:26:02 PM »
But the 'before' images show what it was like before the invasion. Lively and  flourishing, unlike the situation today.  Right off the top of my head I'd say Russia has tossed it into the "backwater' position not Ukraine.  :rolleyes:

It was a backwater in Soviet times and after independence as well. The sanctions hurt Crimea because a lot of cruise ships stopped there.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5328 on: June 22, 2017, 10:45:36 PM »
It's a much poorer backwater now that it's been in the past!

Offline Boethius

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« Reply #5329 on: June 22, 2017, 10:58:58 PM »
Before the invasion, Crimea's GDP was 30% below Ukraine's national average, and Ukraine's GDP was then 23% lower than Russia's.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5330 on: June 23, 2017, 12:07:32 AM »
But the 'before' images show what it was like before the invasion. Lively and  flourishing, unlike the situation today.  Right off the top of my head I'd say Russia has tossed it into the "backwater' position not Ukraine.  :rolleyes:

Lively, for sure ... more tourists ..but I visited Crimea BEFORE 2014 and I can't say it was a place that hadn't serious investment issues.... it was quite run down, before.

Ukraine - reacted to the Russian takeover by cutting off infrastructure.

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5331 on: June 23, 2017, 12:30:30 AM »
Before the invasion, Crimea's GDP was 30% below Ukraine's national average, and Ukraine's GDP was then 23% lower than Russia's.

 And what is it now?  70% below Ukraine and 50% lower than Russia?

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5332 on: June 23, 2017, 12:32:42 AM »

Ukraine - reacted to the Russian takeover by cutting off infrastructure.

After there wasn't any payment for the services..   Ukraine continued to supply electricity and water for quite some time after the invasion.


 A partial truth is the same as a lie.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2017, 12:42:16 AM by AkMike »

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5333 on: June 23, 2017, 06:08:42 AM »
And what is it now?  70% below Ukraine and 50% lower than Russia?

Whatever it is now, one can expect a vast improvement when ( or in your case - if ) the bridges even get built...   Let us know when there are protests to be re-joined with Ukraine ...

After there wasn't any payment for the services..   Ukraine continued to supply electricity and water for quite some time after the invasion.


 A partial truth is the same as a lie.


Quite...  So, you are now saying the lines that were blown up was the method by which Ukraine ' turned off' the electricity ? ...

I seem to remember Ukraine didn't pay it's gas bills..


As it is truth you seek..  By May 2014 Ukraine had reduuced the flow from the Dnieper to Crimea from 88 plus cu metres / sec to FOUR.

I've seen these games played in Cyprus...with the 'Greek side' supplying the Turkish side electricity without payment for years..They there was a big explosion in the 'south' and the 'north' helped out ...

The South side had the reservoirs for water and the north side ran the sewage treatment plant.....  If the south cut off the electric - the city started to have hygiene issues..  they had to work these things through

Now the 'north' has a pipeline of water from  Turkey and there may be oil / gas in large quantities....  once again, they will have to work it out

Ukraine cutting off the water / electric was a hardship which only proved to Crimeans they were correct to 'leave' Ukraine .... not the smartest move....  Soon Russia will be supplying all the things Ukraine supplied and Crimeans won't forget Kyiv's attitude.

Cutting them off was not how to win over hearts and minds if the becoming part of the RF turns out not to have been such a smart move....


Offline Boethius

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« Reply #5334 on: June 23, 2017, 07:09:32 AM »
I have zero issue with Ukraine cutting water to Crimea.


The Soviets diverted water from the Dnieper.   Crimea was always arid.


Given Russian backed terrorists in Donbas have stopped the flow of coal, a primary source of electricity and in some cases, heating in Ukraine, and the Russians have disrupted the flow of gas, why should Ukraine supply a resource that is needed - water - to a region the Russians have invaded and taken by force?   Same with electricity - it is now in short supply within Ukraine at times, so there is no reason for Ukraine to subsidize Crimeans with electricity, particularly not when whole villages in Western Ukraine are almost dark, and night lighting is turned off in Kyiv to save electricity.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5335 on: June 23, 2017, 08:51:22 AM »
I have zero issue with Ukraine cutting water to Crimea.


The Soviets diverted water from the Dnieper.   Crimea was always arid.


Given Russian backed terrorists in Donbas have stopped the flow of coal, a primary source of electricity and in some cases, heating in Ukraine, and the Russians have disrupted the flow of gas, why should Ukraine supply a resource that is needed - water - to a region the Russians have invaded and taken by force?   Same with electricity - it is now in short supply within Ukraine at times, so there is no reason for Ukraine to subsidize Crimeans with electricity, particularly not when whole villages in Western Ukraine are almost dark, and night lighting is turned off in Kyiv to save electricity.

Your points are well made and noted, Experience has taught me in Cyprus that sometimes having the upper hand or using natural resource access - or lack of it - as a lever  - can end up biting you in the future

It is 43 years since the Turkish Army landed in the 'north' of the island - The Turkish speaking Cypriots call it a peace movement and the Greek Cypriots call it an invasion - they only reached an agreement allowing GCs to visit the north in 2003..

I don't see anything being different with Crimea or Donbas ((




Offline Boethius

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« Reply #5336 on: June 23, 2017, 09:31:31 AM »
Crimea is not coming back, and Ukraine would be best to negotiate for reparations.


Donbas can decide what it wants - if it is to be independent or part of Russia, fine, but no trade, no representation in Kyiv, restricted travel.  Let them rot or be supported economically by Russia.  Its primary industry (coal) is a dying one.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5337 on: June 23, 2017, 11:04:24 AM »
Crimea is not coming back, and Ukraine would be best to negotiate for reparations.

That's my viewpoint - but it doesn't mean we should drop sanctions -  I was at a Master's Degree Award ceremony today at a Russian Uni and one of the students was introduced as being from the new Russian Region of Crimea ... I was sat with Finnish people - who still smart about Karelia and our eyes glazed over ...

Donbas can decide what it wants - if it is to be independent or part of Russia, fine, but no trade, no representation in Kyiv, restricted travel.  Let them rot or be supported economically by Russia.  Its primary industry (coal) is a dying one.

Again, probably the best attitude - if a pragmatist - but the way VVP speaks about the 'territory known as Ukraine - he may not be finished with de-stabilising

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5338 on: June 23, 2017, 11:15:23 AM »


Quite...  So, you are now saying the lines that were blown up was the method by which Ukraine ' turned off' the electricity ? ...

I seem to remember Ukraine didn't pay it's gas bills..

You must have missed  the court case that recently overturned the gas contract.  Sweden IIRC showing that the 'take or pay anyway' wasn't kosher.

Why should Ukraine or anyone supply needed services to help the enemy conduct business? Since Russia did the invading, they should have planned for this ahead of time knowing that 'aiding and abetting' the enemy is frowned on.

Krym may indeed never return to Ukraine as stated above. Time will tell. But Russia has already paid  a huge cost for their aggression and will continue to pay. The demise of word opinion will continue to hit the pocketbook of most Russians for many years.  Rouge nations that sponsor and participate terrorism generally don't prosper.

Offline jone

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« Reply #5339 on: June 23, 2017, 12:29:08 PM »
No problem, Mike. 

Russia cash flows very well with oil at USD $100 / Barrel.  Oh, whatdaya mean its only $44.24 per barrel?
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5340 on: June 23, 2017, 03:18:45 PM »
 :clapping: :clapping:   Yeah that put's a hitch in their getalong!   :clapping: :clapping:

Offline Boethius

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« Reply #5341 on: June 23, 2017, 05:28:10 PM »
Again, probably the best attitude - if a pragmatist - but the way VVP speaks about the 'territory known as Ukraine - he may not be finished with de-stabilising


Is that interview with Putin (where he referred to Ukraine) online anywhere?  I'd like to hear what he said, directly.


A lot of Russia's hold over Ukraine was because of gas.  Last year, Naftogaz didn't buy any gas from Russia directly, though they did buy gas from the EU that had been supplied to the EU by Russia.
After the fall of communism, the biggest mistake Boris Yeltsin's regime made was not to disband the KGB altogether. Instead it changed its name to the FSB and, to many observers, morphed into a gangster organisation, eventually headed by master criminal Vladimir Putin. - Gerard Batten

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5342 on: June 23, 2017, 08:56:18 PM »
Funny that you mention that Boe!

"First U.S. Natural Gas Shipped to Poland     On Thursday, the first ever liquefied natural gas shipment from the United States arrived in Poland, a landmark of sorts in Europe’s continuing drive to diversify the sources of its energy import"

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/06/08/first-u-s-natural-gas-shipped-to-poland/

(From Poland it's just a short pipeline away from Ukraine)

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5343 on: June 23, 2017, 09:16:22 PM »
You must have missed  the court case that recently overturned the gas contract.  Sweden IIRC showing that the 'take or pay anyway' wasn't kosher.

That's what you claimed Ukraine did re non payment of the electricity bill by Crimea - being why the electricity supply was cut off ..

Why should Ukraine or anyone supply needed services to help the enemy conduct business? Since Russia did the invading, they should have planned for this ahead of time knowing that 'aiding and abetting' the enemy is frowned on.

What the Kremlin did was extremely sneaky and UN votes demonstrated non approval  - but you didn't and won't hear most locals feeling that they were 'invaded' - quite the contrary.


Krym may indeed never return to Ukraine as stated above. Time will tell. But Russia has already paid  a huge cost for their aggression and will continue to pay. The demise of word opinion will continue to hit the pocketbook of most Russians for many years.  Rouge nations that sponsor and participate terrorism generally don't prosper.

I can see that you simply haven't been to Russia for a while... Life isn't easy for most Russians, but 'handing Crimea back to Ukraine' isn't seen as a magic solution to making life better.  The sanctions mainly target individuals, corporations and banks - not man in the street.


Offline ML

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« Reply #5344 on: June 23, 2017, 09:41:06 PM »

I can see that you simply haven't been to Russia for a while... Life isn't easy for most Russians, but 'handing Crimea back to Ukraine' isn't seen as a magic solution to making life better.  The sanctions mainly target individuals, corporations and banks - not man in the street.

I understand the first line targets of the sanctions, but are you saying that the effect does not filter down to affect all other Russians (man on the street)?

Isn't the spending on military actions causing a drain on the Russian budget that would otherwise be spent on the public (man on the street)?

Aren't some of the sanctions making prices higher in Russia for some (many) goods and making some goods scarce or not available at all to man on the street?

Hasn't the devaluing of Ruble eliminated the ability of many Russians (man on the street) to travel like they want and buy imported items that they want?
A beautiful woman is pleasant to look at, but it is easier to live with a pleasant acting one.

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5345 on: June 23, 2017, 10:13:23 PM »
I understand the first line targets of the sanctions, but are you saying that the effect does not filter down to affect all other Russians (man on the street)?

ML - it is hard to tell, but as you walk the streets - of Sochi - you don't feel Russians want sanctions gone to improve their life-style..  Nor do I get the impression they wish to 'return Crimea' to improve their life.

Isn't the spending on military actions causing a drain on the Russian budget that would otherwise be spent on the public (man on the street)?

almost certainly

Aren't some of the sanctions making prices higher in Russia for some (many) goods and making some goods scarce or not available at all to man on the street?

If the actions of the govt - economic policy and foreign policy - ARE making goods more expensive - weaker rouble (?) the got is not being blamed, yet.

Hasn't the devaluing of Ruble eliminated the ability of many Russians (man on the street) to travel like they want and buy imported items that they want?

Judging by the Mercs and Range Rovers I see on the streets - NO ...

Seriously, there is more a disconnect - with man in the street possibly thinking there is a ruling class that has no interest in what they think and nothing anything one might try will change it ...

Offline calmissile

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« Reply #5346 on: June 23, 2017, 10:32:04 PM »
Seriously, there is more a disconnect - with man in the street possibly thinking there is a ruling class that has no interest in what they think and nothing anything one might try will change it ...


Funny, that is the exact impression I got from locals in Ukraine prior to Maiden (as well as some that have not seen change fast enough to suit them since).
Doug (Calmissile)

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5347 on: June 23, 2017, 11:57:16 PM »

Funny, that is the exact impression I got from locals in Ukraine prior to Maiden (as well as some that have not seen change fast enough to suit them since).

Are you predicting a popular uprising ?

Offline AkMike

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« Reply #5348 on: June 24, 2017, 12:07:52 AM »
Probably not predicting but many have their fingers crossed for the gnomes lingering painful demise, myself included!

Offline msmob

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« Reply #5349 on: June 24, 2017, 02:33:19 AM »
Probably not predicting but many have their fingers crossed for the gnomes lingering painful demise, myself included!

Define 'many' .. ?   They must be hiding

 

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