More Bad News for Russia

[sleepycat]

More of Russia's brightest entrepreneurs leaving the country for greener pastures.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-26/russia-brain-drain-saps-talent-as-sanctions-hit-financing#p1

In a way Russia is facing the perfect storm; growing brain drain, WM taking away attractive RW for wives, and the civil opposition fleeing into exile.

Soon there may only be the dumb, the ugly and the loyal left in the country...

[AkMike]

More of Russia's brightest entrepreneurs leaving the country for greener pastures.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-10-26/russia-brain-drain-saps-talent-as-sanctions-hit-financing#p1

In a way Russia is facing the perfect storm; growing brain drain, WM taking away attractive RW for wives, and the civil opposition fleeing into exile.

Soon there may only be the dumb, the ugly and the loyal left in the country...

And with the declining population due to early deaths and low birth rates, Huilotin  will be getting lonely.

[AC]

And with the declining population due to early deaths and low birth rates, Huilotin  will be getting lonely.

Nah.  He's going to have plenty of company from his new "allies" the Chinese. 


 

[lordtiberius]

China has the largest slave labor population in the world based on Stalin's camps.

[sleepycat]

The regime wants to have sanctions lifted but don't want to loose face asking for it.
Now Doll's analogy about how Russians would 'rather eat dirt and be proud' totally makes sense now...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/russia-is-trying-to-end-sanctions-and-save-face/510066.html

 

[Gator]

The regime wants to have sanctions lifted but don't want to loose face asking for it.
Now Doll's analogy about how Russians would 'rather eat dirt and be proud' totally makes sense now...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/russia-is-trying-to-end-sanctions-and-save-face/510066.html

The sanctions in combination with $85/bbl Brent oil evidently are hurting Russia's economy.


I assert the decline in oil prices is the major factor, and oil prices will not rise in the near future.   The sanctions exacerbate an already worsening economy.   

At the beginning of the year, Putin may have been singing the Rolling Stones' song:

               Time is on my side, yes it is
               Now you always say
               That you want to be free
               But you'll come running back (said you would baby)
               You'll come running back (I said so many times before)
               You'll come running back to me

Yet the clock is also working against Putin. 


Tick...tock...tick...tick...tock...tick...tock

Russians will not suffer as much as Ukrainians; however, life will not be a walk in the park.   There is so much on the table for discussion and trading if the parties would turn to diplomacy.  Ukraine needs gas....Russia needs gas revenue in a buyer's market....Crimea needs logistics from Ukraine....the ceasefire needs to continue....

For sure there was never a need to escalate the military conflict.


Tick...tock...tick...tick...tock...tick...tock

 
 

[AkMike]

Oil Just Slipped below $80 USD per Barrel

 Oil prices were plummeting again on Monday, slipping below US$80 dollars per barrel as worries mount about too much oil finding too few buyers over the next several months or longer.

Monday’s sell-off was triggered by fresh estimates from a big Wall Street bank suggesting oil prices will continue their free fall into winter, landing eventually in the mid-$70 range through the first half of next year.

Wall Street heavyweight Goldman Sachs cut its price estimate on WTI, or Western Texas Intermediate oil, to $75/barrel from $90 through mid-2015 on Monday while making a similarly downbeat revision to its expectations for Brent crude.
http://globalnews.ca/news/1637465/oil-just-slipped-below-80-and-its-expected-to-fall-further/

 tick tock tick tock 

[sleepycat]

 Oil prices were plummeting again on Monday, slipping below US$80 dollars per barrel as worries mount about too much oil finding too few buyers over the next several months or longer.

Oh dear! That doesn't look promising for the Russian state budget.
Looks like Putin's military will have to put up with using Soviet-era equipment for just a wee bit longer! 

Fireworks and national holiday in Ukraine, the Baltics and Poland when this day finally comes?
http://www.inquisitr.com/1562615/does-vladimir-putin-have-cancer/

[lordtiberius]

Oil Just Slipped below $80 USD per Barrel

 Oil prices were plummeting again on Monday, slipping below US$80 dollars per barrel as worries mount about too much oil finding too few buyers over the next several months or longer.

Monday’s sell-off was triggered by fresh estimates from a big Wall Street bank suggesting oil prices will continue their free fall into winter, landing eventually in the mid-$70 range through the first half of next year.

Wall Street heavyweight Goldman Sachs cut its price estimate on WTI, or Western Texas Intermediate oil, to $75/barrel from $90 through mid-2015 on Monday while making a similarly downbeat revision to its expectations for Brent crude.
http://globalnews.ca/news/1637465/oil-just-slipped-below-80-and-its-expected-to-fall-further/

 tick tock tick tock 

This is the most effective thing we have done.

[AkMike]

Once again... Who is this "we" that you keep referring to? 

[lordtiberius]

Once again... Who is this "we" that you keep referring to? 

Not you

[AkMike]

More bad news for Russia

Ruble Rally Short-Lived as Historic Falls Resume

Modest gains for Russia's beleaguered currency were rapidly reversed Monday as the ruble dropped to new record lows amid speculation that the Central Bank might abandon its policy of spending foreign reserves to slow the currency's decline.

The ruble dropped 34 kopeks against the U.S. dollar Monday, touching a bottom of 42.28 in the early evening in Moscow. The currency has lost more than 25 percent of its value against the greenback this year, and over 16 percent in the last three months alone.

A small bounce for the ruble following Standard & Poor's decision last week not to downgrade Russia's sovereign debt rating to junk status were quickly erased despite the monthly tax period when Russian companies are obliged to convert foreign currency into rubles.

"If ever the omens were right for a ruble recovery today was the day," said Tom Levinson, chief currency strategist at Sberbank CIB. "The fact that it has fallen very sharply is telling."

Expectations have been growing that the Russian Central Bank may scale back its support for the ruble, on which it has spent over $20 billion defending this month alone.

"The Central Bank is currently falling foul of a circular argument: It is intervening to smooth ruble losses but at the same time burning through reserves gives the market a reason to sell," Levinson said in written comments.

The regulator currently uses a 9-ruble-wide trading corridor as a guide for slowing the ruble's decline, but has said repeatedly it will implement a free floating currency in 2015. Foreign reserves are committed by the Central Bank when the ruble exceeds the corridor's limits, and for every $350 million spent the corridor is shifted by 5 kopeks.

"Despite its current weakness the ruble is still expensive and does not reflect the recent fall in oil prices and obligation to repay roughly $100bn of external debt by the private sector in 2015," said Alexei Pogorelov, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Moscow.

Squeezed out of U.S. and European Union capital markets after Western sanctions on Moscow, experts predict that Russian companies will struggle to refinance debts over the next eighteen months in a slow-motion credit crunch.

The Central Bank could hike interest rates and abandon its intervention mechanism, which would be a "big surprise" for the market, Credit Suisse said in a research note Monday.

The Central Bank is due to meet for its monthly policy meeting Friday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that Russia would not "unthinkingly burn through its [foreign currency] reserves."

Other pressures on the ruble Monday included Ukrainian parliamentary elections results in which pro-Western parties recorded a strong showing, prompting fears of a further deterioration in relations between Kiev and Moscow.

Oil prices, which have been volatile in recent weeks, dropped sharply Monday. United States crude oil prices fell below $80 a barrel for the first time in 28 months, while the Brent oil global benchmark sank to under $85 a barrel, approaching four year lows recorded earlier in October.

The Russian Central Bank confirmed Monday that it will offer $3.5 billion in foreign currency auctions on Oct. 29 and Oct. 30 in a bid to ease the demand for dollars.

The ruble's steady slide this year amid a falling oil price and tensions over Ukraine has so far failed to produce any sign of panic among Russian households, but a survey published Monday indicated there was rising concern over the issue.

The currency's dynamic is now worrying 45 percent of Russians, compared with 26 percent of the population 16 months earlier, according the independent pollster Levada Center. The survey had a 3.4 percent margin of error.

And there are few indications that an end to the ruble's weakness is in sight.

Without any serious oil price fluctuations, the Russian currency should find equilibrium between 43 and 45 rubles to the dollar, according to Credit Suisse estimates.

"Forty-two rubles against the dollar has already been achieved, and the 45 against the dollar level is now in the market's sights," Igor Zelentsov, a senior trader at Globex Bank, said in a note Monday.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/510147.html

[AC]

The regime wants to have sanctions lifted but don't want to loose face asking for it.
Now Doll's analogy about how Russians would 'rather eat dirt and be proud' totally makes sense now...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/russia-is-trying-to-end-sanctions-and-save-face/510066.html

excerpt
"Both strategies create a "discourse trap" for Moscow. Success depends on the West buying into Russia's "victimhood narrative." A big if."


Poor Russia the "victim" of the West yet again.  Would you like some salt and pepper with that dirt, Doll?   

[AC]

This one is bad news for freedom of the press in Russia, which of course means good news for Putin.

Putin loyalists poised to grab newspaper as Foreign Owners Ousted

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/kremlin-closes-in-on-russia-s-last-foreign-owned-newspaper/509584.html

[AC]

Ukraine uncovers plot to create peoples republic of Odessa:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/ukraine-says-it-uncovered-plot-to-create-people-s-republic-in-odessa/510177.html

[sleepycat]

Sometimes when reality becomes too dire, sticking one's head in the sand remains the only option!

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-passes-draft-budget-based-on-an-alternative-economic-reality-2014-10

[Doll]

The regime wants to have sanctions lifted but don't want to loose face asking for it.
Now Doll's analogy about how Russians would 'rather eat dirt and be proud' totally makes sense now...

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/russia-is-trying-to-end-sanctions-and-save-face/510066.html

Correct. Russians never yield.
Here the quote of your link

One is to evade engagement on Western roadmaps for sanction relief in exchange for Russia's full implementation of the Minsk Protocol in eastern Ukraine. Western terms, made public by U.S. and European Union officials, include complete withdrawal of Russian forces from eastern Ukraine, restoration of Ukraine's sovereignty and control over its border.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made clear that Russia would not get into such horse-trading and would not ask for sanction relief, fearing this could be interpreted as a sign of Putin's vulnerability.

Nor will Moscow re-engage the West on important issues without a clear commitment to lift sanctions. In Paris last week, Lavrov brushed off U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's overtures for new talks on nuclear arms control and even later disavowed his private promise to Kerry to resume intelligence-sharing on the Islamic State. Lavrov called Kerry's cherry-picking approach "consumerist," implying that without sanction relief, re-engagement would be Russia's unilateral concession to Washington.

The second strategy is to bamboozle the West with talk about "the new world order" and the need for a new "consensus of responsible powers." By elevating the discussion to a geopolitical level, Moscow seeks to create a framework that would allow it to claim a "strategic win" that justified "small concessions" on Ukraine to get sanctions lifted. This was Putin's offer at the Valdai conference, his bluster masking a desperation to save face.

[AkMike]

Sometimes when reality becomes too dire, sticking one's head in the sand remains the only option!

http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-passes-draft-budget-based-on-an-alternative-economic-reality-2014-10

 Good Catch SleepyCat! 

[Doll]

Sleepy, the quoted BS is written by Krylov

 

ЗЛОЙ ГЕНИЙ ЛЕВОГО КРЫЛА КПРФ

Posted on Декабрь 21, 2013   by Межпартийная Группа Октябрь-большевики    
 

Сегодня мы поведём речь о достаточно известном, во всяком случае в определённых кругах, и уважаемом деятеле. Причём, влияние его, особенно среди левых, когда-либо имевших отношение к КПРФ, — а ныне выходцев из КПРФ немало в «Левом фронте», «Коммунисты России» вообще состоят из них почти целиком, некоторая часть бывших членов КПРФ в Москве и других регионах присоединилась к «РОТ Фронту», и это не говоря о Межрегиональном объединении коммунистов, — столь велико, что его не только числят одним из вождей левого (марксистского) крыла КПРФ (и, пожалуй, виднейшим теоретиком этого крыла), но и записывают во «враги народа» тех, кто осмеливается этого деятеля критиковать.

 

Речь — об Александре Фролове. Фролов Александр Константинович — советский и российский журналист, партийный деятель, один из основателей КПРФ, член редколлегии газеты «Советская Россия«; в советские годы трудился в журнале «Коммунист» под руководством Р.И.Косолапова, в дальнейшем — депутат «Государственной думы РФ» первого созыва (1993 — 1995 годы), член Президиума ЦК КПРФ до 2008 года, член ЦК КПРФ до 2013 года (не избран в ЦК на XV партийном съезде); по собственным словам — автор по меньшей мере одной из книг, якобы принадлежащих перу Зюганова. Выпускник Философского факультета МГУ им. М.В.Ломоносова, во время учёбы специализировался по вопросам языкознания: «Курсовую я написал про Хомского. Получил пять. Дипломную- тоже про него Еще раз пять и рекомендацию в аспирантуру. Кадндидтскую написал тоже про генеративную грамматику того же Хомского«.

Статьи Фролова регулярно размещаются на ресурсах коммунистов, в последние годы подошедших к решению порвать с КПРФ (один из примеров: http://com-stol.ru/?p=12112, — с сайта московского отделения «Межрегионального объединения коммунистов«; другой пример: http://www.com-piter.ru/7983.html, — с сайта ленинградского отделения той же организации). Нашим читателям Александр Константинович тоже уже знаком, — его творчества мы касались, разбирая вопрос о манипуляции сознанием коммунистов.

 

http://octbol.wordpress.com/2013/12/21/p94/

[sleepycat]

I think to appear fair and balanced, a new thread titled 'More Good News for Russia should be started for which Doll can link articles which are optimistic about the direction of the Russian economy. Then we can all discuss whether these articles have any merits or are complete BS.

[AC]

Complete BS.  Russia is headed for a repeat of 1998.

[AkMike]

Complete BS.  Russia is headed for a repeat of 1998.

 Or possibly worse..

 It's time to change horses in the middle of the stream. This one is dying. 

[JayH]

Losses of Russian banks in Ukraine reach $12.5 bln

KYIV, October 29 /Ukrinform/. Estimates of losses from the realization of direct and indirect risks of Russian banks in Ukraine are growing, ITAR-TASS has reported, citing Kommersant.
According to the newspaper, major banks reported a new scale of problems at the government level, a conservative estimate - $25 billion, and a realistic estimate - $12.5 billion.
"Realistic" losses could be compensated for through the conversion of state support received by the banks in the last crisis, but in this case Russian banks will have no capital reserves to increase lending, reads the report.
Estimates of the total size of losses of Russian banks in Ukraine were given at a closed meeting held last Monday in the office of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev with the participation of major banks, the newspaper reported, citing several sources in the banking market.
ap

[JayH]

Good News For The Rest Of The World?

Putin Has Cancer. He Has Three Years Left - US Media

28.10.2014 16:58
News outlets from Belarus to Poland have reported for months that the Russian strongman has cancer of the spinal cord. But the author of the article, Richard Johnson, says it's pancreatic cancer, one of the most lethal forms of the disease, Censor.NET reports.

As put by the author, Putin has three years to live and wants to leave a legacy of expanding the Russian borders just like Peter the Great or Stalin. This is why he is so in hurry with invading Ukraine, Richard Johnson wrote.


According to PageSix, Putin is allegedly being treated by an elderly doctor from the old East Germany whom Putin met decades ago while serving in Dresden for the KGB. "The doctor has been trying various treatments including steroid shots, which would explain Putin's puffy appearance.

"The physician, who is 84 years old, quit recently, confiding that he hated coming to Russia and was always mistreated by Putin's security detail."



Johnson cites Сrispin Black, the British army veteran who reports on terrorism and intelligence, that Putin's pardon and release of his former crony Mikhail Khodorkovsky, after 10 years in prison, was an ominous sign.

"Some have suggested [Putin] is clearing his conscience," Black wrote.

Source — en.censor.net.ua

[sleepycat]

Good News For The Rest Of The World?

Putin Has Cancer. He Has Three Years Left - US Media

If there is a grain of truth to this, then...

Will his corpse be embalmed and put on display like that of his idols Lenin and Stalin?