More Bad News for Russia

[lordtiberius]

But these commanding generals have much larger resources than the UA Army does. Not to mention the real Generals behind the borders calling the real shots.

 How long are hours going to be in country LT? I'll be there Dec. and Jan.

Mike, I go back on Sunday.  But return last 2 weeks of January.  PM me if this works out for you.

[lordtiberius]

Come back tomorrow when you are sober.  Putin's accomplished much of what he wants to without (yet) resorting to a full scale invasion: 

a)  which is a frozen conflict whereby he can continue to meddle in Ukrainian affairs for years on end.
b)  extensive damage to Ukraine's economy which he hopes will result in
c)  Ukraine comes back to Russia's embrace.


Now answer the same question you posed but insert America's "war" and involvement in Iraq.  Aha.

Comparing Iraqis to Ukrainians says a lot about you and your knowledge of the region.

There are a lot of adverts for English schools and apartments on the Kiev metro.  John Deere is here.  The Soviet blight is cruel and pervasive.  Kievans accept the Stalinist architecture rebuilt by slaves from the last war alongside the golden domed onion domes and smart phones.  I got a bit of business done with the Ukrainian civil service.  He was helpful, polite and spoke English which is more than I get in Harris County or the VA.  If you are a VC, come to Ukraine.  In a year it will be too late and this city will be almost livable.

[AC]

Comparing Iraqis to Ukrainians says a lot about you and your knowledge of the region.

I was not comparing Iraqi's to Ukrainian's.  I was comparing Russia's lack of commitment to a war to America's lack of commitment to war in Iraq.  I believe that was obvious; however I would like to hear the opinion of someone like Calmissile on this.

[lordtiberius]

Nothing you have written changes anything. 

[AC]

Tell us how many battles and wars have been won where the comma di g general deploys his force piecemeal, doesn't coordinate his attacks, his commanders war amongst each other and the are not able to use full combat power?

This is your quotation.  Obviously you were talking about Russia's lack of commitment to a full scale war in Ukraine.

Is that what you really want?  Wake up and smell the coffee. 

[BillyB]

What you are underestimating is the sheer will of the people of Ukraine-- the huge shift to support a united Ukraine is real-people want it.

Most Ukrainians may want a united Ukraine but I see few citizens willing to pick up a weapon and die for it. When we see Ukraine go on an offensive to retake Crimea, I'll believe most Ukrainians truly want a united Ukraine.

Carping on about the negative "could be's" is doing the Ukrainian people a disservice and you are underestimating them  -especially in a time when the young men are being sacrificed  in this battle.

Underestimating? Just being a realist. Poroshenko underestimated his military when he first became president. Remember how he announced the rebels will be flushed out in a day right after he was inaugurated? Underestimating ones opponent is a disservice and going to get people killed. A good leader and generals need to understand the truth to respond accordingly and the truth is the Ukrainian military is not well trained, not well led, and not well equipped so they are at a stalemate with street thugs and a few Russian troops. Poroshenko now has to swallow his pride and negotiate a gas deal with Putin so his people don't freeze this winter. It's not easy to face the guy who stole land and is killing your people but what are the options? The West isn't giving enough help and the Ukrainian military doesn't have the ability to get the job done.

Billy's military analysis fails on several fronts.  First, none of his dire predictions have ever come true.

Just because Putin hasn't completed his goals doesn't mean my predictions won't come true. Even before Putin invaded Crimea, I said on this forum Putin wants Ukraine and Ukraine needs to prepare for an invasion. An invasion has already happened. Smaller than what people thought but its all the same.


Putin has sacrificed military hardware, a few of his troops and his economy in his pursuit of Ukraine. Do you think he's going to give up now or do you think he wants a return on his investment? Giving up what he started is political suicide. It would be a statement that tells his people he doesn't know what he's doing so I say he's all in for the long haul in his conquest of Ukraine. The only thing that will stop his is if he feels the west takes military action against him. Sanctions don't work. They don't work on North Korea, Cuba, or Iran so why would it work against Russia?

[Boethius]

On a completely different topic, oil prices slid to just above US$75 today.  That had an immediate impact on the Canadian dollar.  A drop in oil prices is not good news for Russia.


The Saudis are increasing output to retain their market share, and there is speculation the price will drop even further.

[Brasscasing]

A number of us predicted a Russian military incursion into Ukraine. Mendy and myself were discussing it during and after the Georgian invasion. With the same well known and equally vocal forum participants denying that invasion at the time as well.

The problems for Putin didn't arise as a result of what Ukraine did or didn't do. The problems for Putin started when a crew of his incompetent punk cronies accidently blew a civilian jetliner out of the sky.

Up to this point Putin's operation was going as planned and was on schedule for a quiet invasion of Ukraine which would have been over with minimum fuss and no more of a passing headline and some protests from the West similar to what transpired with Georgia.

MH17 focused world attention on Ukraine and like someone turning on a floodlight onto a dark stage, there was Mr. Putin eyes wide like a deer in the headlights with his hand in the cookie jar, the entire operation soon to be exposed.

Putin's choices were mutter something along the lines of "Uh, it's not what it looks like folks" and walk away or carry on with his occupation in full view of the world. He has chosen the latter because as others have mentioned if he loses face he loses Russia.

Has Putin attained his objectives/goals? Not a chance. Putin's dreams of absorbing Russia's satellites are over. It was over the second the criminally negligent fool operating that BUK threw the launch switch.

Having said that had those people on that plane not died that day Russia would own Ukraine by now and be quietly moving on to yet another country.

Will we see a united Ukraine in the near future? I think we will. Unlike most of the members here I do believe the next phase of this conflict will be a shooting war between NATO and Russia or at least a military intervention by NATO/allied countries.  This won't happen for two years yet but when the US reasserts itself back on to the world stage there will be more than a few countries ready to get in this fight, Canada being one of them.

Poroshenko/Ukraine's military? Ukraine is doing remarkably well on the battle field considering they've been abandoned by the rest of the world.

Up to the point where Russia realized that if they didn't openly start moving troops, armor and supplies into Ukraine (even while still denying it) they were going to lose what gains had been made, Ukraine was winning this war.

However, will bravo zulus, pats on the back and atta boys from Nato countries help Ukraine win the war? Nope. They will lose this thing if Poroshenko doesn't employ every diplomatic trick in the book to keep his country alive and that's what he's doing.

One day this guy's going to write his biography/memos and there will be a few red faces from former leaders of western/nato countries, I'm sure.

Brass

[AkMike]

EU Delays Decision on Russia's Access to Opal Gas Pipeline
Reuters
Nov. 03 2014 17:19
Last edited 19:41

The European Commission said Monday it had pushed back a deadline for deciding whether to give Russia more access to the Opal gas pipeline across Germany until the end of January from the end of October.

Russian gas exporter Gazprom is currently allowed only limited access to the pipeline under a European Union law which seeks to prevent energy suppliers from dominating infrastructure.

But no-one else has taken up the spare capacity on Opal, which provides a link between Russia's Nord Stream pipeline to Germany and the Czech Republic.

"The Commission has agreed with the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) to prolong the deadline for issuing a decision on Opal. The reason ... is that certain technical aspects require further attention," a Commission official said.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said it was difficult to say exactly when a decision would be made. The new deadline was the end of January 2015, although it could be extended further.

A decision on whether to grant Gazprom greater access has already been delayed several times.

The latest delay comes at a time of high tension between the EU and Russia over the Ukraine crisis. The conflict and Gazprom's decision in June to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine over unpaid bills has heightened the EU's determination to reduce its energy dependence on Russia.

Gazprom said last Wednesday it had failed to reach a deal at talks with the European Commission on the Opal gas pipeline and wanted new negotiations.

In Brussels last week, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak criticized the failure as a political decision.

Ukraine, Russia and the EU signed a deal last Thursday that will see Moscow resume vital supplies of gas to its former Soviet neighbor over the winter months in return for payments funded in part by Kiev's Western creditors.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/eu-delays-decision-on-russia-s-access-to-opal-gas-pipeline/510577.html

[AkMike]

Oil takes another dip. Not good news for the huilomeister's junta.

[AC]

Oil takes another dip. Not good news for the huilomeister's junta.

I think he's insane if he launches a full scale invasion to get his land bridge now, considering that it's going to bankrupt him.  Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. 

[AC]

Will we see a united Ukraine in the near future? I think we will. Unlike most of the members here I do believe the next phase of this conflict will be a shooting war between NATO and Russia or at least a military intervention by NATO/allied countries.  This won't happen for two years yet but when the US reasserts itself back on to the world stage there will be more than a few countries ready to get in this fight, Canada being one of them.

Poroshenko/Ukraine's military? Ukraine is doing remarkably well on the battle field considering they've been abandoned by the rest of the world.

+1     (I am cautiously optimistic that you are correct about the US reasserting itself back on the world stage)

[I/O]

The Saudis are increasing output to retain their market share, and there is speculation the price will drop even further.

Yes indeed. All the while, the bear is wasting it's hard earned on fruitless and ultimately very expensive military objectives. I cannot but wonder (cough) who's really pulling the strings? I seem to recall something like "We'll break these bastards and we'll let them do it themselves with what they love doing". History has a nasty habit of repeating itself, very quickly sometimes - the price of MIL's next trip here has increased by 30% in as many weeks.............

[Gator]

The Saudis are increasing output to retain their market share, and there is speculation the price will drop even further.

The Saudis are increasing output to reduce competition.   Increased production reduces the price of oil to a level below what is needed for new shale oil drilling projects to be economically feasible.     The fracking of shale oil and its transport to refiners is more expensive than Saudi's production.  Other OPEC members are not pleased with the Saudi initiative.   There is a limit to how far down the Saudis will drive the price,

[BillyB]

I think he's insane if he launches a full scale invasion to get his land bridge now, considering that it's going to bankrupt him. 

An invasion of Europe will bring those oil prices back up. War will hurt more developed countries than those that aren't as developed so Europe has more to worry about than Russia if Putin chooses war. I doubt this economic war the West is applying on Russia is going to put Putin on his knees, apologize and ask for a seat back in the circle of Western friends. We aren't going to stop Putin with sanctions but we are backing him in a corner. Putin is the cat.


If Putin goes to war, there's little risk he'll lose Russia if the West decides to get involved military. Hard to invade a country when they have nukes as an option for their defense.

[Chelseaboy]

Do you seriously think Putin would launch Nukes at invading troops in his own country..ever heard of radioactive fallout ?

Nukes are a deterrent to stop other countries firing Nukes at you,knowing they'll get the same back...not to dump them in your own country.

Russia could quite possibly be invaded by NATO ,the Russian Defense Minister has already expressed increasing alarm at the unprecedented build-up of NATO forces on the Russian borders...nothing is off the table.

NATO is getting increasingly miffed with the three times higher than usual invasion of their airspace by Russian bombers and fighter aircraft this year...but doesn't need to rush anything..let Russia strangle itself economically first by keep pushing into Ukraine while the sanctions continue to get ramped-up.

[I/O]

let Russia strangle itself economically first

It has an impressive record of exactly that - I fear history will repeat...

[BillyB]

Do you seriously think Putin would launch Nukes at invading troops in his own country..ever heard of radioactive fallout ?

Yes, if it preserves the Russian way of life as Putin sees it. What is radioactive fallout compared to losing ones country? Neutron bombs will most likely be used on invading troops. Kill living organisms while preserving infrastructure and minimizing radioactive fallout.

[I/O]

Billy - Please stop this nonsense, nobody but nobody is interesting in invading Russia.

[Belvis]

The Saudis are increasing output to reduce competition.   Increased production reduces the price of oil to a level below what is needed for new shale oil drilling projects to be economically feasible.     The fracking of shale oil and its transport to refiners is more expensive than Saudi's production.  Other OPEC members are not pleased with the Saudi initiative.   There is a limit to how far down the Saudis will drive the price,

I doubt the price of oil is controlled by Saudis. Political will affects the short-living price fluctuations but the basement is global money flows which where headed in dollar bonds because of crisis. Oil looks stronger than other commodities, and the pattern on a few years price scale shows high probability for sharp breakthrough upside.  Created dollar mass is too large to be calm for too long, economic laws can not be annuled by politicians.

[Belvis]

Billy - Please stop this nonsense, nobody but nobody is interesting in invading Russia.

Except Billy 

[AkMike]

Do you seriously think Putin would launch Nukes at invading troops in his own country.. ( Ukraine isn't his country) ever heard of radioactive fallout ?

Nukes are a deterrent to stop other countries firing Nukes at you,knowing they'll get the same back...not to dump them in your own country.

Russia could quite possibly be invaded by NATO
,( Yeah in Bizzaro World the Russian Defense Minister has already expressed increasing alarm at the unprecedented build-up of NATO forces on the Russian borders...nothing is off the table.

NATO is getting increasingly miffed with the three times higher than usual invasion of their airspace by Russian bombers and fighter aircraft this year...but doesn't need to rush anything..let Russia strangle itself economically first by keep pushing into Ukraine while the sanctions continue to get ramped-up.

[lordtiberius]

Agree it is political suicide for the Russian President to quit.  But his slow motion invasion is not working.  He doesn't want to escalate this because it would bring a united response from NATO. 

This isn't helping either:
http://time.com/3553962/us-dollar-greenback-currency-money-global-economy-treasury-securities/

[AC]

Billy - Please stop this nonsense, nobody but nobody is interesting in invading Russia.

+1 

[BillyB]

nobody but nobody is interesting in invading Russia.

That's what I've been saying based off nuclear deterrent. There will be interested parties going to war with Russia if they have ambitions past Ukraine. Follow the conversation.