More Bad News for Russia

[JayH]

80 something.  Putin is going to get out of Ukraine before it gets worse than that.  He is a slimeball but he's no dummy.

Putin is a shortarsed moron-dumb he is-- dumb as dog shit!
A stunted dwarf mentally-- he has made a massive misclaculation and Russia and Russians will pay for his mistakes. It needs to be noted--all his Kremlin cronies are of the same ilk.
His Russian military are pouring aid in to their thugs in Ukraine to try and save the situation--but are potentially looking at a defeat in eastern Ukraine-- and you can bet money that if Ukainians achieve that then the Crimea will be on the agenda-so no easy way for the puny one !!

to date though when he should be taking heed and changing course he just diggs down even deeper , tightens the crash helmut and pushes onwards

he is either totally reckless and consumed by his own belief or he still has some planed tactic he hasnt used yet  to walk away without a huge loss

personally i think he is hoping the EU/US/NATO will blink first , and let him consolidate his gains if he can , & that is his only strategy

SX

I think you are correct here SX-- but I also think that crediting him with to  much thinking power is wrong too. He has made a massive miscalculation  and will attempt to hang on to what he has.
Back in September  quite often it was discussed letting the east go in the hope of peace and appeasing Putin.By November--many had moved from that position( another  illustration of how quickly things can change) . It also reflects that Ukrainians had become more confident they could hold the Russian troops to the east .
In the last few days Right Sector have said they have had enough of the Russian duplicity  and lies( constantly not complying with truce terms) and will start upping the ante in a few areas. Watch this closely-- this could be the cornerstone of the outcome -either way.

[AC]

Jay your comments about Putin are from the outside looking in.  Just after the annexation of Crimea Putin looked like a genius to the average Russian and they were ecstatic.  Yes he made some miscalculations about E. Ukraine but his goal was not just military conquest but to also weaken and possibly collapse Ukraine's economy.

To the average zombie Russian he still seems okay and it's the USA who is evil and causing all the harm to his economy, not him.  Plus he can claim to have made historic deals with China and now India.

Hopefully the real damage to his economy and the likelyhood that now the USA and other countries are going to give Ukraine weapons is sinking in and he will change course for the betterment of Ukraine.  This is what I believe is going to happen and there seems to be a softening of the Russian position so it is certainly likely.  It would actually probably be better if he continues to threaten and provoke the West because the sooner this fight is on the sooner it will be over and he will be gone.  Time will tell if he continues to be contolled by his ego.

[Doll]

Central Bank of Russia jacked interest rates up from 10.5% to 17%.

If this is not a sign of panic by the regime then I don't know what is...

At this new interest rate, it'll probably be cheaper to borrow from a loan shark than from a legitimate Russian bank!

 

Now we wait for the Putin apologists to try to spin this massive rates hike as a positive for the Russian economy...

Do you know who owns this bank?

[JayH]

deo has visited many web users. YouTube Russian President talks about the ruble The network is a popular video presentation Vladimir Putin, where the Russian president explains how the fall of the ruble had a positive impact on the Russian budget. Earlier, Putin said that Ukraine Donbass and need each other economically and politically .  Remarks policy accompanied nischivnym Laugh track.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/tsikavinki/internet-pidrvalo-video-iz-putinim-ta-znuschalnim-zakadrovim-smihom-397015.html

Інтернет підірвало відео із Путіним та знущальним закадровим сміхом Інтернет, 12 грудня, 07:01 відеоДрукувати Відео уже переглянуло чимало користувачів Мережі. YouTube Російський президент розповідає про рубль У Мережі популярним стає відео виступу Володимира Путіна, де російський президент пояснює, як падіння рубля позитивно вплинуло на російський бюджет. Нагадаємо, що раніше Путін заявив, що Донбас і Україна потрібні один одному економічно та політично.  Виступ політика супроводжується ніщівним закадровим сміхом. За тиждень кількість переглядів досягла понад 166 тисяч. Читайте також: Падіння цін на нафту та тиск на економіку Росії можуть повалити Путіна - WSJ Нагадаємо, що трек "Путін х*йло" став хітом інтернету: найкрутіші відео та коуби.  Читайте також:
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/tsikavinki/internet-pidrvalo-video-iz-putinim-ta-znuschalnim-zakadrovim-smihom-397015.html

[JayH]

AC--I agree with the tenor of your comments.What I do not want to see Ukraine do is settle for less than can be achieved--ie- make no compromises and push to get all possible.
The pressure from Ukraines friends will be to make compromises-my view is the west should support Ukraine to the hilt-- it is in all the worlds interests to force Russia to a subdued position for the future.
It should not be forgotten the deaths and injuries,the hardships created by Putin and Russia  on Ukrainians -- and the lesson of GeoBush Sen not finishing the job he started ought never be repeated-- when you have the recalcerint on the run--finish the job while the opportunity is there.
Lets face it--a Ukrainian redirection will prove relatively easy compared to Russia-- so a lot of incentive will need to be there.

[JayH]

Somethings up and I expect that the USA is finally giving Ukraine some weapons.  Two sources I found seem to confirm this:

December 13 at 9:33am ·

Came across this comment, I do not know whether it was true.

Message from Kharkov. My sources say that the airport is prepared to receive cargo planes from the United States who bring gifts for the new year for the aggressor and terrorists in the Donbass region. Do you know what kind of gifts? Correctly, is a lethal weapon ... Teaser GlobalTeaser network say they are preparing to receive airport 3: Kiev, Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk. That is why they have closed. Russia will try to prevent to deliver the goods. Including may apply and their "Beeches". In order to not hurt the peace and in order to bring down the aggressor be confusing, it was decided to close the airport 3 right away. Let Putin por. s. Karolak and wondering where it will load. And if you want, let them is anything that flies in the air over Donbass). Then lethal weapons do not.. The Russians are paranoid to be removed. Reasons for the joy of the terrorists and the aggressor should be very much. The first 10 days, Putin gave Poroshenko on meditation, or martial law. The second United States Congress approved the Act of Ukrainian military support. And finally the third Airports Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia was closed to civilian aircraft. The NATIONAL SECURITY and DEFENSE COUNCIL does not comment on the situation. Ukraine's enemies rejoice! Gifts for the new year from allies of Ukraine are on the way. We destroyed you rusty tanks, destroyed quite successfully. Do not hesitate! With podaročkami our allies you will die faster, perhaps not suffering the agony of death ...

AC --it is Kremlin BS -- just more of the crap fed to a captive audience that the villains in Ukraine is the US of A !!

[Chelseaboy]

Despite the interest rate hike the Russian Rouble continued to plummet to 77.05 to the USD this morning...source Sky News...who claim people are now panicking in Russia.

Meanwhile an exiled Brit in Estonia is still desperately trying to put a positive spin on all this for the Russian economy on another forum...he also recently claimed it's the USA economy that's in trouble..not Russia's.

Mind you the same person claims Anastasia and HRB/RLM have upstanding business ethics and are good places to find a wife in his fantasy world.

[AkMike]

Despite the interest rate hike the Russian Rouble continued to plummet to 77.05 to the USD this morning...source Sky News...who claim people are now panicking in Russia.

Dammit! I was wrong! I thought that they could wait for Christmas but they beat all records of a free fall!

 77 now and there's still 9 days to go.

 Shall we go for 100 by New Years?

[sleepycat]

When the floodgate opens...

Seriously I have never seen any currency tank so much within the span of a single day, it's almost not funny anymore.
Maybe Doll will report back and reassure us there is nothing to worry about!

[AkMike]

I suspect that she won't say much about this. She said it'd never hit 70 IIRC.

[Chelseaboy]

Russia has so far lost 80 billion of it's 418 billion reserves in a failed attempt to stop the Rouble falling...source Sky News...and the thought of the IMF giving a  bailout was considered VERY unlikely because of Russia's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

You reap what you sow Putler.

Time for another Putin speech to the Russian zombie masses methinks.

[sleepycat]

How will the state media spin this currency fiasco this time...

Cancel the business segment of the evening news broadcast?

[AkMike]

Ruble Sinks to 80 a Dollar Defying Surprise Russia Rate Increase


The ruble sank as much as 19 percent to 80.10, before trading at 78 at 3:14 p.m. in Moscow. That was the biggest drop since 1998,

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-16/ruble-snaps-six-day-loss-on-surprise-rate-increase-to-17-percent.html

[Muzh]

Here's an interesting perspective of an American political analyst visit to Moscow. Basically, he met with the likes of Doll and Beavis.

I thought the economic problems of Russia would be foremost on people's minds. The plunge of the ruble, the decline in oil prices, a general slowdown in the economy and the effect of Western sanctions all appear in the West to be hammering the Russian economy. Yet this was not the conversation I was having. The decline in the ruble has affected foreign travel plans, but the public has only recently begun feeling the real impact of these factors, particularly through inflation.


But there was another reason given for the relative calm over the financial situation, and it came not only from government officials but also from private individuals and should be considered very seriously. The Russians pointed out that economic shambles was the norm for Russia, and prosperity the exception. There is always the expectation that prosperity will end and the normal constrictions of Russian poverty return.


The Russians suffered terribly during the 1990s under Boris Yeltsin but also under previous governments stretching back to the czars. In spite of this, several pointed out, they had won the wars they needed to win and had managed to live lives worth living. The golden age of the previous 10 years was coming to an end. That was to be expected, and it would be endured. The government officials meant this as a warning, and I do not think it was a bluff. The pivot of the conversation was about sanctions, and the intent was to show that they would not cause Russia to change its policy toward Ukraine.


Russians' strength is that they can endure things that would break other nations. It was also pointed out that they tend to support the government regardless of competence when Russia feels threatened. Therefore, the Russians argued, no one should expect that sanctions, no matter how harsh, would cause Moscow to capitulate. Instead the Russians would respond with their own sanctions, which were not specified but which I assume would mean seizing the assets of Western companies in Russia and curtailing agricultural imports from Europe. There was no talk of cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe.


If this is so, then the Americans and Europeans are deluding themselves on the effects of sanctions. In general, I personally have little confidence in the use of sanctions. That being said, the Russians gave me another prism to look through. Sanctions reflect European and American thresholds of pain. They are designed to cause pain that the West could not withstand. Applied to others, the effects may vary.

It is interesting that our discussions parallels what he found in Moscow, namely that the Russians have a hard time understanding what we are saying.

The United States has been conditioned to be cautious of any rising hegemon. In this case the fear of a resurgent Russia is a recollection of the Cold War, but not an unreasonable one. As some pointed out to me, economic weakness has rarely meant military weakness or political disunity. I agreed with them on this and pointed out that this is precisely why the United States has a legitimate fear of Russia in Ukraine. If Russia manages to reassert its power in Ukraine, then what will come next? Russia has military and political power that could begin to impinge on Europe. Therefore, it is not irrational for the United States, and at least some European countries, to want to assert their power in Ukraine.
 
When I laid out this argument to a very senior official from the Russian Foreign Ministry, he basically said he had no idea what I was trying to say. While I think he fully understood the geopolitical imperatives guiding Russia in Ukraine, to him the centurylong imperatives guiding the United States are far too vast to apply to the Ukrainian issue. It is not a question of him only seeing his side of the issue. Rather, it is that for Russia, Ukraine is an immediate issue, and the picture I draw of American strategy is so abstract that it doesn't seem to connect with the immediate reality. There is an automatic American response to what it sees as Russian assertiveness; however, the Russians feel they have been far from offensive and have been on the defense. For the official, American fears of Russian hegemony were simply too far-fetched to contemplate.

Interesting read.


http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/viewing-russia-inside#axzz3M4abEfIb

[jone]

The prospects of martyrdom have always been a part of the Russian psyche.    The problem, of course, is when the rest of the world experiences prosperity and it is readily seen by the suffering Russian people.  It would seem to me that the communication restrictions put on the Russian people by their own government and elimination of all outside influences through totalitarian government are meant to combat just that.

In essence, the standard of living will be reduced (is reduced) for the Russians while the rest of the world flourishes.  Unfortunately, we have already seen the effects of that:  Russia will lag behind the rest of the world in technology and infrastructure.  I know, we can call these formative years a 'five year plan'.

[Faux Pas]

to date though when he should be taking heed and changing course he just diggs down even deeper , tightens the crash helmut and pushes onwards

he is either totally reckless and consumed by his own belief or he still has some planed tactic he hasnt used yet  to walk away without a huge loss

personally i think he is hoping the EU/US/NATO will blink first , and let him consolidate his gains if he can , & that is his only strategy

SX

There is also another thought that not many on these boards seem to recognize, know or give any credence and that is, possibly Putin can't control the events and actions of the Russian military in Ukraine. Perhaps all is not as it seems?

[AkMike]

Securities of Sberbank, VTB, oil and gas companies in Russia were affected by downward market trend.

The MICEX index fell by 7.9%, to 1324.92 points, while the RTS declined by 11.2% to 650.03 points.

Sberbank shares were down, with depositary receipts declining by 17.58%, and ordinary shares falling in value by 13.39%. VTB’s GDRs dropped in price by 5.82%, and its ordinary shares by 2.22%.

Shares of Russian oil and gas companies are also dropping. Gazprom’s GDRs fell by 18.51%, and its shares by 10.02%; Rosneft’s GDRs lost 11.87% of their value, and ordinary shares fell by 8.19%.

RusHydro’s depositary receipts lost 9.80% of their value, while the company's shares were 8.01% down.
Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/economic...ter-rubles-fall.html

[AkMike]

Sorry, Putin. Russia’s economy is doomed

A funny thing happened on the way to Vladimir Putin running strategic laps around the West. Russia's economy imploded.

The latest news is that Russia's central bank raised interest rates from 10.5 to 17 percent at an emergency 1 a.m. meeting in an attempt to stop the ruble, which is down 50 percent on the year against the dollar, from falling any further. It's a desperate move to save Russia's currency that comes at the cost of sacrificing Russia's economy.

But even that wasn't enough. After a brief rally, the ruble resumed its cliff-diving ways on Tuesday, falling another 14 percent to a low of 80 rubles per dollar. It was 60 rubles per dollar just the day before. The problem is simple. Oil is still falling, and ordinary Russians don't want to hold their money in rubles even if they get paid 17 percent interest to do so. In other words, there's a well-justified panic. So now Russia is left with the double whammy of a collapsing currency and exorbitant interest rates. Checkmate.

It's a classic kind of emerging markets crisis. It's only a small simplification, you see, to say that Russia doesn't so much have an economy as it has an oil exporting business that subsidizes everything else. That's why the combination of more supply from the United States, and less demand from Europe, China, and Japan has hit them particularly hard. Cheaper oil means Russian companies have fewer dollars to turn into rubles, which is just another way of saying that there's less demand for rubles—so its price is falling. It hasn't helped, of course, that sanctions over Russia's incursion into Ukraine have already left Russia short on dollars.

Add it all up, and the ruble has fallen something like 22 percent against the dollar the past month, with 11 percent of that coming on Monday alone. As you can see below, the Russian ruble has fallen even further than the Ukrainian hryvnia or Brent oil has this year. The only asset, and I use that word lightly, that's done worse than the ruble's 50 percent fall is Bitcoin, which is a fake currency that techno-utopians insist is the future we don't know we want.

And this is only going to get worse. Russia, you see, is stuck in an economic catch-22. Its economy needs lower interest rates to push up growth, but its companies need higher interest rates to push up the ruble and make all the dollars they borrowed not worth so much. So, to use a technical term, they're screwed no matter what they do. If they had kept interest rates low, then the ruble would have continued to disintegrate, inflation would have spiked, and big corporations would have defaulted—but at least growth wouldn't have fallen quite so much.

Instead, Russia has opted for the financial shock-and-awe of raising rates from 10.5 to 17 percent in one fell swoop. Rates that high will send Russia's moribund economy into a deep recession—its central bank already estimates its economy will contract 4.5 to 4.7 percent if oil stays at $60-a-barrel—but they haven't been enough to stop the ruble's free fall. Russia might have to resort to capital controls to prop up the value of the ruble now, and might even have to ask the IMF for a bailout, too.

Putin's Russia, like the USSR before it, is only as strong as the price of oil. In the 1970s, we made the mistake of thinking that the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan meant we were losing the Cold War, when the reality was that they had stumbled into their own Vietnam and could only afford to feed their people as long as oil stayed sky-high. The USSR's economic mirage, though, became apparent to everybody—none less than their own people, who had to scrounge in empty supermarkets—after oil prices bottomed out in the 1980s. That history is repeating itself now, just without the Marxism-Leninism. Putin could afford to invade Georgia and Ukraine when oil prices were comfortably in the triple digits, but not when they're half that. Russia can't afford anything then.

Putin might be playing chess while we play checkers, but only if we lend him the money for the set.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

[AkMike]

Conditional Currency Makes Comeback as Retailers Lose Trust in Russian Ruble
By Anna Dolgov
Dec. 15 2014 15:00

Along with the flashy cars of the new rich and the garbage bin food scavenging of the new poor, a distinctive sign of Russia in the 1990s were store price tags in a non-official currency — “u.e.”

Amid the decade's economic upheavals, when the ruble could bleed chunks of value overnight, the u.e. — which stands for the Russian words “uslovnaya yedinitsa,” or “conditional unit” and is pronounced “oo-yeh” — was a response by storekeepers to soaring inflation and a way to avoid having to replace price tags on a daily basis. The u.e.-to-ruble exchange rate was pegged to the U.S. dollar.

As the economy stabilized, the conditional currency mostly disappeared, replaced by the familiar ruble, and the u.e. was relegated to a memory of a bygone turbulent era. Aside from a brief comeback in the 2008-09 economic crisis, the conditional unit disappeared from view.

Until now.

With the ruble down almost 50 percent against the dollar so far this year — and over 14 percent just in the past three trading days — the u.e was back in circulation this week, certainly as a rumor and possibly as tender.

Moscow radio station Govorit Moskva on Sunday reported spotting prices at a hardware store in the capital's suburb of Khimki listed in the infamous conditional units. The radio station also posted photographs of the price tags on its website.

The report prompted a flurry of speculation and reprints on Russian social media and news websites.

The government's official newspaper Rossiiskaya Gazeta published an online report late Sunday night suggesting that the rumors were false — but stopping just short of saying so outright.

“Rumors about a switch to conditional units have indeed appeared,” the head of the online trade department at Russia's Association of Electronic Commerce, Ivan Kurguzov, was quoted as saying. “A range of Internet stores are thinking about switching to u.e. or intend to change their price tags several times a day.”

Rossiiskaya Gazeta said it had checked the websites of “popular Internet shops,” and found no trace of u.e.-denominated prices.

The problem was that in some cases there were no prices in rubles, either.

The website of a hardware store in Khimki, ArtReality.ru, when checked by The Moscow Times early Monday, offered dashes instead of prices for items added to an online shopping cart, and a note asking customers to leave their phone number so that a “manager” could contact them to “agree on the price.”

In a twist for the Russian government, the 1990s-reminiscent reports of the u.e.'s reemergence appeared as Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev published an op-ed article in the Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper on Monday predicting a replay of the turbulent 1990s — for Ukraine.

The economic troubles afflicting Ukraine as government forces and pro-Moscow separatists fight in the country's east mean that “apparently, our neighbors will have to live through a second '90s,” Medvedev said in the article.

Cheerless as Ukraine's economic situation might be, prospects are also dim for Russia. A combination of Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis, capital flight and a steep drop in the price of oil, Russia's key export, have not only almost halved the value of the ruble currency, but have flattened already faltering economic growth and sharply raised inflation.

But store owners considering listing prices in u.e. are not allowed to ditch the ruble entirely.

“Under the law, the customer must be informed about prices in rubles,” Rossiiskaya Gazeta quoted Dmitry Yanin, the head of an association of consumers' groups, as saying. “That is, the stamped price tag must be in rubles. But nobody prohibits listing next to it the price in dollars or euros. Or even in [Chinese] yuan! This would not be considered a violation of the law.”

But Moscow's government upped the ante on Monday, with City Hall's trade and services chief Alexei Nemeryuk saying that prices must be displayed “exclusively only in rubles,” and that price tags in u.e. would be removed, news agency RIA Novosti reported.

By the early 2000s, when the u.e. survived only in some business contracts and posh car dealerships, the exchange rate for the units stopped matching that of the dollar, and began to correspond to that of the euro. That meant higher prices, as the euro was gaining in value.

Radio station Govorit Moskva did not specify whether the u.e. at the Khimki store was pegged to the dollar or the euro.

But the explanation for the switch to oo-yehs was familiar from the 1990s: Listing prices in rubles would mean changing price tags several times per week to minimize losses from the depreciating ruble, store employees said, according to the report.http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/conditional-currency-makes-comeback-as-retailers-lose-trust-in-russia-s-ruble/513307.html

[AC]

There is also another thought that not many on these boards seem to recognize, know or give any credence and that is, possibly Putin can't control the events and actions of the Russian military in Ukraine. Perhaps all is not as it seems?

I thought that he already claimed that he could not control the actions of the separatists.  As far as the actions of the Russian military itself I don't believe it.  As far as the action of some of the separatists it may be possible in the short term that they get out of control but in the long term he has his GRU over there reeling them in or eliminating them.

[Faux Pas]

I thought that he already claimed that he could not control the actions of the separatists.  As far as the actions of the Russian military itself I don't believe it.  As far as the action of some of the separatists it may be possible in the short term that they get out of control but in the long term he has his GRU over there reeling them in or eliminating them.

He's made those claims repeatedly. Suppose he was only lying about how or why he can't control them. It's quite possible Putin can't control the monster he unleashed. He wants the West to think he's in control. Russian forces are in Ukraine but, it may not be Putin keeping them there. Putin likely isn't in control of his own Army. There are a number of factions in the Kremlin, all tied to money and power with many assorted interests. The idea that Putin is in control or total control may just be a fallacy.

[jone]

Sorry, Putin. Russia’s economy is doomed

A funny thing happened on the way to Vladimir Putin running strategic laps around the West. Russia's economy imploded.

The latest news is that Russia's central bank raised interest rates from 10.5 to 17 percent at an emergency 1 a.m. meeting in an attempt to stop the ruble, which is down 50 percent on the year against the dollar, from falling any further. It's a desperate move to save Russia's currency that comes at the cost of sacrificing Russia's economy.

But even that wasn't enough. After a brief rally, the ruble resumed its cliff-diving ways on Tuesday, falling another 14 percent to a low of 80 rubles per dollar. It was 60 rubles per dollar just the day before. The problem is simple. Oil is still falling, and ordinary Russians don't want to hold their money in rubles even if they get paid 17 percent interest to do so. In other words, there's a well-justified panic. So now Russia is left with the double whammy of a collapsing currency and exorbitant interest rates. Checkmate.

It's a classic kind of emerging markets crisis. It's only a small simplification, you see, to say that Russia doesn't so much have an economy as it has an oil exporting business that subsidizes everything else. That's why the combination of more supply from the United States, and less demand from Europe, China, and Japan has hit them particularly hard. Cheaper oil means Russian companies have fewer dollars to turn into rubles, which is just another way of saying that there's less demand for rubles—so its price is falling. It hasn't helped, of course, that sanctions over Russia's incursion into Ukraine have already left Russia short on dollars.

Add it all up, and the ruble has fallen something like 22 percent against the dollar the past month, with 11 percent of that coming on Monday alone. As you can see below, the Russian ruble has fallen even further than the Ukrainian hryvnia or Brent oil has this year. The only asset, and I use that word lightly, that's done worse than the ruble's 50 percent fall is Bitcoin, which is a fake currency that techno-utopians insist is the future we don't know we want.

And this is only going to get worse. Russia, you see, is stuck in an economic catch-22. Its economy needs lower interest rates to push up growth, but its companies need higher interest rates to push up the ruble and make all the dollars they borrowed not worth so much. So, to use a technical term, they're screwed no matter what they do. If they had kept interest rates low, then the ruble would have continued to disintegrate, inflation would have spiked, and big corporations would have defaulted—but at least growth wouldn't have fallen quite so much.

Instead, Russia has opted for the financial shock-and-awe of raising rates from 10.5 to 17 percent in one fell swoop. Rates that high will send Russia's moribund economy into a deep recession—its central bank already estimates its economy will contract 4.5 to 4.7 percent if oil stays at $60-a-barrel—but they haven't been enough to stop the ruble's free fall. Russia might have to resort to capital controls to prop up the value of the ruble now, and might even have to ask the IMF for a bailout, too.

Putin's Russia, like the USSR before it, is only as strong as the price of oil. In the 1970s, we made the mistake of thinking that the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan meant we were losing the Cold War, when the reality was that they had stumbled into their own Vietnam and could only afford to feed their people as long as oil stayed sky-high. The USSR's economic mirage, though, became apparent to everybody—none less than their own people, who had to scrounge in empty supermarkets—after oil prices bottomed out in the 1980s. That history is repeating itself now, just without the Marxism-Leninism. Putin could afford to invade Georgia and Ukraine when oil prices were comfortably in the triple digits, but not when they're half that. Russia can't afford anything then.

Putin might be playing chess while we play checkers, but only if we lend him the money for the set.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/12/15/russias-economy-is-doomed-its-that-simple/

I think it is time to call it what it is:  Russia is falling into a depression, not a recession. 

[AC]

He's made those claims repeatedly. Suppose he was only lying about how or why he can't control them. It's quite possible Putin can't control the monster he unleashed. He wants the West to think he's in control. Russian forces are in Ukraine but, it may not be Putin keeping them there. Putin likely isn't in control of his own Army. There are a number of factions in the Kremlin, all tied to money and power with many assorted interests. The idea that Putin is in control or total control may just be a fallacy.

Interesting.  I've read that there are some who are more hawkish than Putin is.  How long will Russian soldiers obey the orders to go there, regardless where those orders come from?

[jone]

I think we are days, maybe hours away from Capital Controls.  The Krauts are gonna get skewered.  Bye-bye Deutsche Bank.  Call it what it is "DEFAULT"!

Yummy for guys like me.  Who cares about selling the Ruble short.  Just look for banks that have invested heavily in Russia.  Sell them short instead.

[jone]

I do believe that the Germans are gonna be mad as hell, at Putin, by the new year.  (As if they aren't already!)

And who wins from this whole charade?  The Chinese, of course.  May as well just sell the Northern Resource Area to China now, V.V.  After all, they'll own it in ten years.