More Bad News for Russia

[calmissile]

Seems that Belarus is preparing for Putin's 'little green men'!

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/russia-and-former-soviet-union/belarus-to-de-russify-schools-and-ready-to-defend-from-unmarked-troops-378504.html

[mendeleyev]

Doug,

The question is whether Lukashenko is preparing for little green men, or might there be another reason--such as clearing the way for martial law?

Yes, there are rising movements all over the FSU to reunite the "Russian world," but if you read the text of the Executive Order, it gives him broad powers to suspend the Constitution (as if he needed such), delay elections, etc. The wording gives him power to indefinitely do everything he needs to push elections aside, and continue at will. The excuse to enact those measures is if outside movements constitute a threat.

Ghee whiz, there are elections scheduled in Belarus for later this year. Shocking. 

[JayH]

Down Down Down.
For those advising others what a bargain it was at 55-- I hope you bought plenty back then--but--my guess is that you bought zero rubble !



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[calmissile]

Doug,

The question is whether Lukashenko is preparing for little green men, or might there be another reason--such as clearing the way for martial law?

Yes, there are rising movements all over the FSU to reunite the "Russian world," but if you read the text of the Executive Order, it gives him broad powers to suspend the Constitution (as if he needed such), delay elections, etc. The wording gives him power to indefinitely do everything he needs to push elections aside, and continue at will. The excuse to enact those measures is if outside movements constitute a threat.

Ghee whiz, there are elections scheduled in Belarus for later this year. Shocking. 

Point well taken.  I don't know enough about the Belarussian politics to evaluate the dangers.   When I read the full text of the Executive Order, it made sense to me.  Any country that risks an invasion by Russia would need to implement something similar.  After all, the lessons learned in Ukraine/Crimea, they cannot depend on NATO, the EU, the UN, or the USA to defend them prior to being overrun by Russia.  Hopefully, it is for honorable reasons that the order was generated.

[Brasscasing]

Russian spy ring shut down in New York...

3 Charged With Working as Agents for Russia in New York

..."In a case full of intrigue and clandestine communications, three Russians were charged on Monday with working secretly in New York as agents for Russian intelligence, the federal authorities said."...

Read more here...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/nyregion/3-charged-with-working-as-agents-for-russia-in-new-york.html?_r=0

Brass

[Taz]

This is for people like FatherTime who think the US should do nothing to/for Ukraine to help.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/01/unrest-in-ukraine-threatens-world-peace-114614.html?

[Taz]

A very interesting look at the cost of the war inside Russia.

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/russia/articles/20150126.aspx?

[fathertime]

This is for people like FatherTime who think the US should do nothing to/for Ukraine to help.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/01/unrest-in-ukraine-threatens-world-peace-114614.html?

Hey Taz, I read the link and thank you for it.  One point they made is the nuclear proliferation point. In my opinion that ship has already sailed, leaders of nations already realize that having nukes will make it far less less likely they will have forced regime change.  Hey for all we know Russia may decide to share nuclear weapons with various of their allied nations as one consequence if we get in his way too much (in Ukraine)...  Who knows what he has said/done?  He may decide that his allies globally are under siege and need protection like that.   I see what is happening in Ukraine as a pity...but there can be far greater tragedies...Don't take this wrong (like some of the site bloviators  have)...I want peace but it has to be a peace that considers Russia's global interests....we may not like it, but that is the way it HAS to be.  It goes without saying this is only opinion, and I welcome constructive counterpoints....although it is a certainty I'll get a little more than that!     


Fathertime!   
 

[JayH]

This is for people like FatherTime who think the US should do nothing to/for Ukraine to help.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/01/unrest-in-ukraine-threatens-world-peace-114614.html?

Taz--article is a good example of what I said recently--many in US politics on both sides to "get" the Ukrainian crisis and understand why it is so important-- and why something needs to be done--ie help Ukraine.
QUOTING-
"But this struggle is about more than Ukraine’s right to self-determination, and failing to support the Ukrainians will have real consequences for other U.S. national security priorities. When Ukraine emerged as an independent nation after the Cold War, it inherited the world’s third-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. As a newly independent state looking to ensure its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Ukraine could have relied on its nuclear arsenal to ward off would-be aggressors. Instead, Ukraine sought — and received — assurances from the international community that its borders would be respected if it gave up its nuclear weapons. In 1994, the U.S., United Kingdom and Russia signed the Budapest Memorandum, in which all sides pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, refrain from using military force or economic pressure to limit Ukrainian sovereignty and provide assistance to Ukraine if it became the victim of aggression from another nation. Obviously, Russia has broken its part of that agreement. Now the question is whether we will break ours. And if we do break our word, we should consider the devastating impact on American counterproliferation efforts around the world. How could any nation we seek to prevent from developing nuclear weapons ever trust U.S. security assurances if they see in the carnage and destruction in Ukraine the deadly folly of trading nuclear weapons for American guarantees?"
AND THIS__
QUOTING_
"Russian aggression against Ukraine today is as much about demonstrating the emptiness of U.S. and Western guarantees as it is about control of those individual countries. The conflict in Ukraine is the latest escalation of this trend, one that will continue until the U.S. and its allies stand firm."

[Taz]

FT- my concern is you can't concede everything that Putin wants and give it to him. If he wants to "buy" Crimea then he needs to compensate Ukraine for it. I feel that for every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict and land stolen from Ukraine, Ukraine needs to be compensated at a minimum.

The problem with  your strategy is that even if Russia were to carve off a section of Ukraine, they would still have Ukraine next door that is trying to get out of their shadow. So what is to stop him from taking another chunk, and another, and another, ad infinitum? Absolutely nothing!

While I don't think Putin his Hitler, you can draw some interesting parallels. Hitler blamed the Jews and now Putin is blaming the Ukrainians as a reason for his illegal actions. Putin could take ALL of Ukraine and then say that he needed it's neighbors as a hedge against NATO and Europe. The Ukrainians clearly don't want to be under Putin's thumb and even in the areas that Russians are fighting from to attack the rest of Ukraine, those people weren't in favor of being under Putin's control even though they might have identified themselves as Russian. Polls were conducted long before this conflict started when it was relatively calm and not even a plurality of ethnic Russians wanted to break away from Ukraine.

My ex lived in that area and her family was all Russian, her grandfather fought in WW2, and they still didn't want to be part of Russia. I spent so much time in the area over the last 10 years that I know the people and mentality very well. While Russian there was no strong desire to be part of Russia. A small group of people along with Russian infiltrators upset the apple cart and the average person there is suffering. If Russia will control it, they will do what they did in Crimea and give everything of value to the Russian carpet baggers that will show up.

[JayH]

TAZ-- the likes of FT were busy trying to tell us that Putler was entitled to take Crimea and we should do nothing --because that was as far as his aspirations went! That wasted 4000 miles of forum space while he rationalised that!

Putler and his Russian army not as bad as Hitler?  Would you like to explain the difference to the family  of a friend of mine whose  just saw their son being shot while being a prisoner in this last week?

Or--as you well know-- the people murdered & maimed in Mariupol in the last week at Putlers instigation?

Appeasement of Putin WILL NOT WORK !-- Only removing him from all of Ukraine will stop him-- and provide the catalyst for Russian reform./

[BillyB]

I don't know enough about the Belarussian politics to evaluate the dangers. 

Luka has regularly been ranked in the top 10 of Parade Magazine's worst dictators in the world. Putin has never made it in the top 10. Don't expect Luka to be one of Ukraine's heroes when this is all said and done.

[Anotherkiwi]

Russian spy ring shut down in New York...

3 Charged With Working as Agents for Russia in New York

..."In a case full of intrigue and clandestine communications, three Russians were charged on Monday with working secretly in New York as agents for Russian intelligence, the federal authorities said."...

Read more here...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/nyregion/3-charged-with-working-as-agents-for-russia-in-new-york.html?_r=0

Brass

Are you kidding?

Mr. Sporyshev and Mr. Podobnyy, who were protected by diplomatic immunity, are no longer in the United States, the government said. As employees of the Russian government, they were exempt from notifying the United States attorney general of their intelligence work, the authorities said.

CLASSIC!   

[AC]

Russian spy ring shut down in New York...

3 Charged With Working as Agents for Russia in New York

..."In a case full of intrigue and clandestine communications, three Russians were charged on Monday with working secretly in New York as agents for Russian intelligence, the federal authorities said."...

Read more here...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/nyregion/3-charged-with-working-as-agents-for-russia-in-new-york.html?_r=0

Brass

This spy situation shows how desperate the Russian economy is.  That's what they were send to spy about.

"Two of the Russians posed as official representatives of Russia. The third man worked in the Manhattan office of a Russian bank and was arrested in the Bronx. All three men worked for Directorate ER, an S.V.R. division that focuses on economic issues.

The three Russians — as well as unnamed others — had been directed to collect intelligence on potential United States sanctions against the Russian Federation and on efforts by the United States to develop alternative energy resources, the complaint said."

[lordtiberius]

No PayPal in Crimea?  How are all of those agency gals gonna get paid?  I also wonder how ADate, with company headquarters in Moscow, is keeping tabs on all the Pay-per-chat girls in Ukraine.  As a matter of interest, if you were a Ukrainian woman and knew that you could list with any online agency, would you currently choose a company based in Russia?  I wonder how many of the agencies are getting paid in Rubles and not dollars?

No Paypal in Ukraine either

[fathertime]

FT- my concern is you can't concede everything that Putin wants and give it to him. If he wants to "buy" Crimea then he needs to compensate Ukraine for it. I feel that for every Ukrainian life lost in this conflict and land stolen from Ukraine, Ukraine needs to be compensated at a minimum.

The problem with  your strategy is that even if Russia were to carve off a section of Ukraine, they would still have Ukraine next door that is trying to get out of their shadow. So what is to stop him from taking another chunk, and another, and another, ad infinitum? Absolutely nothing!
 

Prior to this crisis Russia had a great deal of control (Perhaps indirectly) over Ukraine....although there are a percentage of Russian sympathizers, when this crisis is over it seems a certainty they will have less control overall...since things weren't going TOO badly before the crisis...I'd call that a win (for western powers)...just not a blowout win....2 steps forward 1 1/2 steps back.  Ukraine will pay the price though. 


At this point I agree in regards to not giving anything away...It seems to me that Russia is paying for this...just not as much as some insist they should be...and having an unhappy population to maintain will have many costs....and I continue to believe Western intervention will turn a regional battle into something much larger...and it just isn't necessary despite what people's emotions are saying. 


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

TAZ-- the likes of FT were busy trying to tell us that Putler was entitled to take Crimea and we should do nothing --because that was as far as his aspirations went! That wasted 4000 miles of forum space while he rationalised that!

Putler and his Russian army not as bad as Hitler?  Would you like to explain the difference to the family  of a friend of mine whose  just saw their son being shot while being a prisoner in this last week?

Or--as you well know-- the people murdered & maimed in Mariupol in the last week at Putlers instigation?

Appeasement of Putin WILL NOT WORK !-- Only removing him from all of Ukraine will stop him-- and provide the catalyst for Russian reform./

I see you whining on a parallel thread about a statement being taken out of context...meanwhile you have taken certain characterizations of my statements out of the context of the discussion that was occurring at the time...so I don't think you should complain so much when the same is done to towards your statements. 


Typical! 


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

The aid was done so knowing there was a high probability to bring in the Soviets.  The amount of aid wasn't important.  Getting the Soviets into a war was.  Interfering in another country in order to bring down the Soviets.


It would be silly for any of us not to remember what has been done to bring down the Soviets and say it wouldn't happen to any threat America perceived and Russia is a perceived threat.

Wow.  We are a community that posts pro-soviet Shiite?  Wow.  MOB indeed

[AC]

Are you kidding?

Mr. Sporyshev and Mr. Podobnyy, who were protected by diplomatic immunity, are no longer in the United States, the government said. As employees of the Russian government, they were exempt from notifying the United States attorney general of their intelligence work, the authorities said.

CLASSIC!   

Perhaps you don't know how intelligence work actually works but what is said there is assumed, it's really no big deal.  An American economic analyst assigned to the American embassy in Moscow is assumed by Moscow to actually be a spy and he will likely be followed at all times while he is walking around or driving around Moscow.  The two agents described above were recorded in action with a "NOC" which is somebody who if captured the Russians would likely kill; we don't do that.

[Doll]

тазик, лови

On February 19, 1954 the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union issued a decree transferring the Crimean Oblast from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian SSR. According to the Soviet Constitution (article 18), the borders of a republic within the Soviet Union could not be re-drawn without the agreement of the republic in question. The transfer was approved by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union; however, according to article 33 of the constitution, the Presidium did not have the authority to do so. The constitutional change (articles 22 and 23) to accommodate the transfer was made several days after the decree issued by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet.[1][2]

The decree was first announced, on the front page of Pravda, on February 27, 1954.[3] The full text of the decree was:[4]


"Decree of the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet transferring the Crimea Province from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR.

Taking into account the integral character of the economy, the territorial proximity and the close economic and cultural ties between the Crimea Province and the Ukrainian SSR, the Presidium of the USSR Supreme Soviet decrees:
To approve the joint presentation of the Presidium of the Russian SFSR Supreme Soviet and the Presidium of the Ukrainian SSR Supreme Soviet on the transfer of the Crimea Province from the Russian SFSR to the Ukrainian SSR."
The transfer took place in three steps: the Supreme Soviet of the Russian SFSR proposed the transfer, the Supreme Soviet then approved, and the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR accepted the transfer on June 17, 1954.

There are claims[who?] that the move was illegal as there was a requirement for a referendum which was never carried out and that the Supreme Soviet was inquorate.[5]

[lordtiberius]

Prior to this crisis Russia had a great deal of control (Perhaps indirectly) over Ukraine....although there are a percentage of Russian sympathizers, when this crisis is over it seems a certainty they will have less control overall...since things weren't going TOO badly before the crisis...I'd call that a win (for western powers)...just not a blowout win....2 steps forward 1 1/2 steps back.  Ukraine will pay the price though. 


At this point I agree in regards to not giving anything away...It seems to me that Russia is paying for this...just not as much as some insist they should be...and having an unhappy population to maintain will have many costs....and I continue to believe Western intervention will turn a regional battle into something much larger...and it just isn't necessary despite what people's emotions are saying. 


Fathertime!

Please not the win-win again

[fathertime]

Russian spy ring shut down in New York...

3 Charged With Working as Agents for Russia in New York

..."In a case full of intrigue and clandestine communications, three Russians were charged on Monday with working secretly in New York as agents for Russian intelligence, the federal authorities said."...

Read more here...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/nyregion/3-charged-with-working-as-agents-for-russia-in-new-york.html?_r=0

Brass

I was browsing the internet and found this link which states that the USA ran Special Ops. in 130 nations last year....Even I find that number shocking.....Assuming the story is true, I don't know who exactly we are killing in many of these things in so many different countries....kinda makes the Russian spy thing seem like small potatoes.


http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/01/special-ops-almost-70-percent-world-countries


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

What did I tell you?  Moral equivalency!

[fathertime]

What did I tell you?  Moral equivalency!

The 'superior' moralist strikes again!   


Fathertime! 

[Taz]

тазик, лови

Who gives Putin the authority to take it back? Anyway i was in Crimea during the initial arrival of the little green men. I can tell you from spending quite a bit of time in Crimea, over the past 14 years, that while there were a lot of Russian speakers, there was almost nobody ready to run to be under the control of Russia.

Demographically the percentage of Russians as a total amount of the population was in continuous decline. So let's do the math regarding the voting regarding the referendum which was a joke anyway. As you should know Kukla, the was NO CHOICE to stay as part of Ukraine on the referendum. Supposedly Krim (Crimea) voted 99.7% in favor of joining Russia. This is obviously total BS as at best, the amount of Russian in Krim was about 55-60%. There is no way in hell the Tatars would have ever voted for being part of Russian they represent about 10-13% of the population.

So any way you look at it, it was total a sham vote and DONE after the invasion of the LGM (little green men) to try and cover up their illegal acts after the fact. I know how Russia works, I lived and worked there long enough to separate the fact from the fiction in most situations.

FT- as far as Russia paying a price that isn't just all of it. Sure they may pay a short term price but they stole all the natural resources that surrounded Crimea. Part of the HUGE price they should pay is to COMPENSATE Ukraine for their theft. It isn't just enough they suffer a bit, they need to compensate their victims (Ukraine and the Ukrainian people). How can Russia repay Ukraine for all the lives lost and families destroyed? Billions of real $$$, not worthless Rubles, would be a start. A ongoing royalty of 50% (monitored and audited by one of the big 4) for all natural resources accessed from around Crimea. I could go on. The point is to make it so punitive that Putin would never attempt anything like this again and exact a tremendous price going forward for his folly.

JayH- While I think Putin is despicable, at the moment he hasn't equaled either Hitler or Stalin but he could be on his way. I hope not but the longer it goes, the more he looks like a genocidal maniac.

The ultimate irony would be if China uses Putin's own tactics against him. I would probably die of laughter.