New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border

[krimster2]

Russian 49th Army motor rifle infantry & tank units based in Stavropol are joining artillery units (Grad MLRS & Msta-B) from 150th Motor Rifle Division based in Novocherkassk as part of a new military build-up in Western military district about 50 km from Ukraine border

I love iphone tracking

[jone]

Here is a video of the confrontation in the Kerch Strait. 



The two Ukrainian naval vessels and the tug are being held by the Russians.  There is no word given on the status of the captured crew members.

[krimster2]

the naval confrontation was planned in advance
a week before the "incident" new Russian ships came in to Azov
there is talk of declaring "Martial Law" in Ukraine
elections coming up...

[DaveNY]

More and stronger sanctions by the international community against Russia? I don't know if there's any Russians or any Russian companies left in Russia to sanction?

[JayH]

the naval confrontation was planned in advance
a week before the "incident" new Russian ships came in to Azov
there is talk of declaring "Martial Law" in Ukraine
elections coming up...

Martial Law has been declared for a 30 day period at this stage

More and stronger sanctions by the international community against Russia? I don't know if there's any Russians or any Russian companies left in Russia to sanction?

Let me write the sanctions -- it can be done that would bring the Russians to their knees .It did not happen under the namby pamby pissweak Obama administration ( over Russia)   and is even more unlikely with the the corrupt idiot in chief who is hopelessly compromised over Russia. It is a pathetic disgrace of  of avoidance of international responsibilities.
The bottom line is the chaos sown by Russia ( Brexit ,Trump etc) has created a window of opportunity for Putin.

The concern -- that Russia is ready to go with a water based invasion via the Azov sea -- the fact is that it is ready to go ,It is highly likely that any invasion will be on multiple fronts.

This is by far the most dangerous situation Ukraine has faced -- and it looks like the west has deserted Ukraine again and will leave it to face Russia alone.

It is  a pathetic weak west .

FWIW -- it would be quite simple to fix this -- send the US destroyer that is in the region to sail into the Azov sea -- see how smart that f..wited Putin really is !!!

[DaveNY]

The concern -- that Russia is ready to go with a water based invasion via the Azov sea -- the fact is that it is ready to go ,It is highly likely that any invasion will be on multiple fronts.

This is by far the most dangerous situation Ukraine has faced -- and it looks like the west has deserted Ukraine again and will leave it to face Russia alone.

It is  a pathetic weak west .

FWIW -- it would be quite simple to fix this -- send the US destroyer that is in the region to sail into the Azov sea -- see how smart that f..wited Putin really is !!!

If Putin were to invade Mariupol from the sea that would end any possible doubts that Russia is behind the war in eastern Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia would intensify and the ruble would drop in value like a stone.

Sending a US destroyer and its escorts into the Azov Sea would certainly send a message to Putin that the world is watching.

[JayH]

If Putin were to invade Mariupol from the sea that would end any possible doubts that Russia is behind the war in eastern Ukraine. Sanctions against Russia would intensify and the ruble would drop in value like a stone.

Sending a US destroyer and its escorts into the Azov Sea would certainly send a message to Putin that the world is watching.

Dave really -I want to be polite --but --who on this earth with a vestige of a brain is in any doubt about Russia created a war by invading Ukraine--even Putin has admitted it !  Of course Trump will be at a "they" say maybe it was or mayb eit wasn't etc ! Like I said -anyone with a skerrick of a brain has worked it out!

[jone]

Anyone who has witnessed history will tell you that sending an un-protected destroyer through a pair of defended shores is not something that the US navy would ever consider.   If the US were to make a move, it is much more likely that the current naval complement in the Black Sea would be increased (substantially) and would probably be comprised of naval vessels from more NATO countries than just the United States.

[krimster2]

starting from 28 November

http://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1067156145339535373/photo/1

as the image shows, not all of Ukraine is under martial law
just the areas that are in the path of the impending Russian invasion

meanwhile, Uzbekistan is holding the largest military drill in the country's history, coincidence???

[GQBlues]

Anyone who has witnessed history will tell you that sending an un-protected destroyer through a pair of defended shores is not something that the US navy would ever consider.   If the US were to make a move, it is much more likely that the current naval complement in the Black Sea would be increased (substantially) and would probably be comprised of naval vessels from more NATO countries than just the United States.

Why would the US get involved? Ukraine is not a NATO member. Let either the UN or the Europeans handle this matter for a change...

Besides, the timing of this is suspect to say the least considering the March election.

[BillyB]

Sending a US destroyer and its escorts into the Azov Sea would certainly send a message to Putin that the world is watching.

Obama sent single destroyers into the Black Sea and Islands in the China Sea. It didn't stop Russia or China. Destroyers in other nations are their capital ships and have smaller escorts. American destroyers don't have escorts, they are escorts. A carrier fleet would send a message. One carrier and it's battlegroup has hundreds of missiles and an air force stronger than most nations have.

Some people talk of sanctions. Haven't worked. Never worked. To stop guns you have to use guns. You don't have to go to war but putting enough guns in the area my discourage war.

[krimster2]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7828639/ukraine-set-to-impose-martial-law-amid-fears-of-fresh-conflict-with-russia-after-kremlin-fires-on-ships-and-captures-sailors/

there shall be war, and rumors of war

[BillyB]

Russia is testing Ukraine with movement of troops and hostilities at sea to see their reaction. Russia is gathering intelligence to see how prepared Ukraine is and what they would do if there was an invasion. They want to see how the rest of the world reacts pertaining to this incident too. They'll be able to factor the risks vs rewards.

[LAman]

http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7828639/ukraine-set-to-impose-martial-law-amid-fears-of-fresh-conflict-with-russia-after-kremlin-fires-on-ships-and-captures-sailors/

there shall be war, and rumors of war

Yea, right. Talk is cheap. Going through the motions based on possibilities.


Impending Russian invasion??? Yea, been hearing that for 4 1/2 years now. A thorn in the side, yes.

[DaveNY]

Obama sent single destroyers into the Black Sea and Islands in the China Sea. It didn't stop Russia or China. Destroyers in other nations are their capital ships and have smaller escorts. American destroyers don't have escorts, they are escorts. A carrier fleet would send a message. One carrier and it's battlegroup has hundreds of missiles and an air force stronger than most nations have.

Some people talk of sanctions. Haven't worked. Never worked. To stop guns you have to use guns. You don't have to go to war but putting enough guns in the area my discourage war.

You're definitely correct that an aircraft carrier fleet and escorts sailing into the Azov Sea would send a more definite message to Putin than a single or multiple destroyers. However, I've been told by several retired US Navy officers that the movements of aircraft carriers and their escorts are planned several years in advance and unless there's a genuine emergency changing those orders is very difficult.

That being said according to the US Navy, CNV-75 Harry S. Truman is currently in the Med. It probably wouldn't be too difficult to reroute it to the Azov Sea. Have Trump tweet that he's ordered the Harry S. Truman to make a port call at Mariupol, Ukraine. Have a couple of dozen of Truman's fighter jets doing flight exercises while in the Azov Sea.

Could something the size of a US aircraft carrier pass under the bridge linking Russia and Crimea? Is there sufficient depth in the narrows around the bridge. With only one way in and out of the Azov Sea would sailing an American aircraft and its escorts into the area be a wise move? Trump might have to settle for making a port call in Odesa.

Putin would be apoplectic if it happened and it would be hard to say Putin had any control over Trump after something like that.

http://www.gonavy.jp/CVLocation.html

[JayH]

The carrier based group would not enter the Black Sea let alone the Azov Sea.It would sit much further south -not far from where it is now . Much as I would love to see the carrier knocking Putins bridge down ( it would be way to large to pass underneath) there is no possibility of that happening.

Sending a single destroyer would be enough -- that would be making a statement -- and -- the carrier group is in effect - backing it up.

Anyone who has witnessed history will tell you that sending an un-protected destroyer through a pair of defended shores is not something that the US navy would ever consider.   If the US were to make a move, it is much more likely that the current naval complement in the Black Sea would be increased (substantially) and would probably be comprised of naval vessels from more NATO countries than just the United States.

The importance of a gesture ( like I would like to see ) is that it can be implemented fast --  it is not about the technical aspects of a battle -- but a statement to Putin that he is not going to get his own way over this -- or any extended plan that is in the making.

A lot of you guys here have a very different view to me of Trump-- and -- his compromised personal situation over Russia will see an inadequate response   -- so let us see what he DOES here.Personally --my advice is  that if he wants to get respect from Russia --stand on the Russians throats now and show some  strength -- that will get him a lot further than his namby pamby  c... sucking attitude he has displayed so far.

[JayH]

Will the west ever wake up? This is a  much need opportunity to react in the strongest possible way--  and not with finger waving ! It needs a fast --very clear statement -- and I do not mean token words.
The west can help itself if it faces up to this.


In this dark hour, where are Ukraine’s allies?


Faced with overt and undeniable Russian military aggression, tantamount to a declaration of war by all reasonable interpretations of international law, Ukraine’s allies have so far failed to respond in an adequate way.

For all the talk of upholding Ukrainian sovereignty and defending its territorial integrity, supporting European integration and the importance of Ukraine as NATO’s eastern flank: what are Ukraine’s allies doing, when it really matters?

It takes 30 seconds and 90 characters to issue a strongly-worded condemnation on Twitter. It’s easy, quick and it has almost no value.

But for every single G7 country and NATO member state, it’s all they’ve been able to muster so far, after Russia attacked Ukrainian navy vessels in neutral waters, gunned down, wounded and captured their sailors and illegally seized their vessels on Nov. 25.

Warning about the prospect of further aggression from Russia, even a full-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as tanks, troops and aircraft reportedly mass near the Ukrainian border, lawmakers in Kyiv put in place martial law on Nov. 26 and the fear and uncertainty here in the Ukrainian capital is palpable.

And still, Western leaders seem incapable or unwilling to do little more than draft strongly-worded statements. As Europe’s largest country comes under attack, the silence from the leaders of Ukraine’s most important allied countries is absolutely deafening.

And Moscow is grinning from ear to ear as they pay close attention to such a weak response.

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/jack-laurenson-in-this-dark-hour-where-are-ukraines-allies.html

[DaveNY]

Will the west ever wake up? This is a  much need opportunity to react in the strongest possible way--  and not with finger waving ! It needs a fast --very clear statement -- and I do not mean token words.
The west can help itself if it faces up to this.


In this dark hour, where are Ukraine’s allies?


Faced with overt and undeniable Russian military aggression, tantamount to a declaration of war by all reasonable interpretations of international law, Ukraine’s allies have so far failed to respond in an adequate way.

For all the talk of upholding Ukrainian sovereignty and defending its territorial integrity, supporting European integration and the importance of Ukraine as NATO’s eastern flank: what are Ukraine’s allies doing, when it really matters?

It takes 30 seconds and 90 characters to issue a strongly-worded condemnation on Twitter. It’s easy, quick and it has almost no value.

But for every single G7 country and NATO member state, it’s all they’ve been able to muster so far, after Russia attacked Ukrainian navy vessels in neutral waters, gunned down, wounded and captured their sailors and illegally seized their vessels on Nov. 25.

Warning about the prospect of further aggression from Russia, even a full-scale invasion of eastern Ukraine as tanks, troops and aircraft reportedly mass near the Ukrainian border, lawmakers in Kyiv put in place martial law on Nov. 26 and the fear and uncertainty here in the Ukrainian capital is palpable.

And still, Western leaders seem incapable or unwilling to do little more than draft strongly-worded statements. As Europe’s largest country comes under attack, the silence from the leaders of Ukraine’s most important allied countries is absolutely deafening.

And Moscow is grinning from ear to ear as they pay close attention to such a weak response.

http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/jack-laurenson-in-this-dark-hour-where-are-ukraines-allies.html

I doubt any country in the G7 or Europe for that matter will do anything serious on their own unless the USA takes the first step. Germany does a lot of trade with Russia and has helped finance a northern pipeline route from Russia to Germany.

The UK has its own problems with Brexit and certainly has not taken up any leadership role Europe says the US had abandoned. France and Italy wouldn't know what to do if either country was being invaded by Russia so looking to them for significant leadership is a lost cause. 

Canada has condemned the Russian aggression and called on Russia to release the vessels and crew. Europeans are criticizing the US for getting involved in foreign wars and here Russia, a European country is literally seizing Ukrainian military vessels in international waters and invading Ukraine and all the European countries are doing is saying some moderately inoffensive condemnations.

Once again the world looks to the US for guidance.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-condemns-russia-experts-divided-1.4921772

[jone]

Geeze,

I guess one has to understand that if Russia controls both sides of the strait, which they do (although the Crimean side is not recognized by almost anyone but Russia) and the strait is only 15 km wide at its widest, how are these international waters?

[GQBlues]

In this dark hour, where are Ukraine’s allies?

Oh the drama! Ukraine’s allies? I thought it was a grassroot movement?

Anyway Jay, where’s Australia and YOUR leaders? Too busy chasing kangaroos? Heck why don’t YOU sign up with Ukraine’s military and show Putin how you really feel instead of throwing hissyfits on message boards. LMAO! You’re too fu#&ng funny, man!

‘Dark hour’ lol sheeesh. When Iran, under Obama, seized two US naval ships, there were no ‘dark hour’ hysterics, man. No ‘allies’ around either. No. Those allies were too busy cutting the fat off the Obama/Kerry hog of a deal.

The US is fine now and I hope we don’t get dragged into any of this mess grassroot movement. We understand how the benevolent and saintly international community, especially our trusted ‘allies’, feel about US hegemonic adventures. Right? I’d hate to see those ‘No Blood For Oil!’ placards again.

Try Macron. See what he’s up to these days.

[Belvis]

You're definitely correct that an aircraft carrier fleet and escorts sailing into the Azov Sea would send a more definite message to Putin than a single or multiple destroyers.

Some technical info to restrict the speculations.

1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits. Only if Turkey will get involved in the war against Russia. Though it can be settled at the expense of huge benefits for Turkey, I guess.

2. A standard american aircraft carrier has а height of about 60 m above water, and a draft under water 11-12 m. The ship has to sail in the Azov sea from Black Sea under Crimean bridge which has 35 m clearance  space below. Probably the carrier can sacrifice its superstructure and break into. After that the carrier will strike aground because the average depth in the Azov Sea is around 7 m.

[Trenchcoat]

Ok serious question now, sorry I was just f*cking with you guys earlier Didn't mean to upset anyone who might have family/relatives in Ukraine. Of course there is more to this situation than just the western guy angle. However, while Ukrainians face a potentially more dangerous situation than western men on the outside I think there are still lesser but for us still issues for us to understand, namely:

1). What does martial law mean for Ukrainians in the effected areas?

2). Is the period of martial law likely to be extended?

3). Does the areas under martial law make these areas no go areas for western men to visit their women?

Unfortunately while I wish the west would directly get involved to help out Ukraine, I don't think any country will do.

[BdHvA]

Some technical info to restrict the speculations.

1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits. Only if Turkey will get involved in the war against Russia. Though it can be settled at the expense of huge benefits for Turkey, I guess.

2. A standard american aircraft carrier has а height of about 60 m above water, and a draft under water 11-12 m. The ship has to sail in the Azov sea from Black Sea under Crimean bridge which has 35 m clearance  space below. Probably the carrier can sacrifice its superstructure and break into. After that the carrier will strike aground because the average depth in the Azov Sea is around 7 m.

A light of common sense in a sea of fog.

[DaveNY]

Some technical info to restrict the speculations.

1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits. Only if Turkey will get involved in the war against Russia. Though it can be settled at the expense of huge benefits for Turkey, I guess.

2. A standard american aircraft carrier has а height of about 60 m above water, and a draft under water 11-12 m. The ship has to sail in the Azov sea from Black Sea under Crimean bridge which has 35 m clearance  space below. Probably the carrier can sacrifice its superstructure and break into. After that the carrier will strike aground because the average depth in the Azov Sea is around 7 m.

Much smaller US Navy ships have been in the Black Sea this year. From the article.

On Saturday the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Carney joined the USS Ross in the Black Sea to "conduct maritime security operations," according to a statement from the US Navy's 6th Fleet, which oversees US naval operations in the region. It's the first time two US Navy warships have been in the Black Sea since July 2017.

Since the draft of an Arleight Burke class destroyer is close to 10 meters it couldn't travel through the Azov Sea. However, I'm sure a port call to Odesa by a few American Navy vessels capable of traveling in the Black Sea would send a message to Putin.

http://www.cnn.com/2018/02/19/politics/us-russia-black-sea-show-of-force/index.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arleigh_Burke-class_destroyer

[BillyB]

1. Aircraft carriers are not allowed the passage in Black Sea by Montreux Convention regarding the regime of the straits.

Montreux Convention doesn't name aircraft carriers as a class of ship that can pass through the straits but it also doesn't name aircraft carriers as ships that can't pass through. It's a grey area.

Reagan, a president with balls, puts an aircraft carrier in the in the Black Sea in 1988 to make a big statement. Below video shows a Soviet ship ramming the carrier.