New Russian military buildup on Ukrainian border

[BdHvA]

It is not a grey area.

A foreign Naval vessel may not have more than 15,000 tons Dead Weight to pass thru the Bosporus. Aircraft carriers now a days weigh + +  20,000 DW. On a regular basis 'foreign' naval vessels visit the Black Sea. There is a system (convention) that has been in place for almost a 100 years. It works.

Also there are two conventions or understandings one for the Black Sea, the other for the Sea of Azov. The Sea of Azov is not part of the Black Sea, but rather a tributary with separate rules and conventions.

[DaveNY]

It is not a grey area.

A foreign Naval vessel may not have more than 15,000 tons Dead Weight to pass thru the Bosporus. Aircraft carriers now a days weigh + +  20,000 DW. On a regular basis 'foreign' naval vessels visit the Black Sea. There is a system (convention) that has been in place for almost a 100 years. It works.

Also there are two conventions or understandings one for the Black Sea, the other for the Sea of Azov. The Sea of Azov is not part of the Black Sea, but rather a tributary with separate rules and conventions.

I'm not arguing the point. If the limit for passage through the Bosphorus is 15,000 tons DW then the US Navy has a number of ships in its fleet that could go into the Black Sea. Destroyers and cruisers seem to max out at under 10,000 tons DW. Then of course there's all the subs.

Having a half dozen or so US Navy ships sailing around the Black Sea for a few weeks might give Putin pause. Probably not but maybe.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_United_States_Navy#Commissioned

[JayH]

A light of common sense in a sea of fog.

What?you did not see my summary a day ago?

The carrier based group would not enter the Black Sea let alone the Azov Sea.It would sit much further south -not far from where it is now . Much as I would love to see the carrier knocking Putins bridge down ( it would be way to large to pass underneath) there is no possibility of that happening.

Sending a single destroyer would be enough -- that would be making a statement -- and -- the carrier group is in effect - backing it up.

[JayH]

Paint it any way you like -- there are many observers who see it the same way.


Russia’s latest attack on the Ukrainians is a warning to the West

Finally, the timing may be linked to international politics. Britain, one of the countries that has been most adamant about sanctions on Russia, is right now turning inward for a monumental battle over its withdrawal from the European Union; there isn’t much political bandwidth in London to worry about Ukraine. President Trump’s administration is divided, distracted and preparing to contend with Democrats in the upcoming House majority who will, among other things, investigate his past ties to Russia. The E.U., Canada and even Poland came out with official statements condemning the Russian actions long before anything was heard from the United States. On Monday evening Kiev time, the State Department had still not reacted to the events in the Kerch Strait. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s denunciation of Russia’s “outlaw actions” came many hours after the other statements.

Whatever the other motives for this staged attack, this kind of passivity may well be what the Russians are counting on. This is the modus operandi they have followed in the past: Take a few steps forward; wait for a reaction. If there isn’t one, move farther. If there is one, wait for the emotions to die down — and then move farther. This incident may or may not end here, but consider it a warning: If we don’t have a broader strategy for ending this war, that will be the pattern for years to come.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/russias-latest-attack-on-the-ukrainians-is-a-warning-to-the-west/2018/11/26/5c1f3634-f1b6-11e8-aeea-b85fd44449f5_story.html?utm_term=.68739d34e703

[JayH]

The link below is a good summary .
The reasons why international action is required by placing US/NATO/western countries ships into this equation and forcing the situation that way is that it will stop Russian escalation plans --it can prove to easily take the heat out of the situation and thwart Putins intentions.
Of note -- some have repeatedly written of the Russian intentions over Ukraine and time is not working in Russia's favour  as Ukraine moves further away everyday .
Put a US destroyer right in the  hot spot in the Black Sea -- and take whatever action is required to support it!


Herbst says Russia wants to provoke Ukraine as excuse for more military action

 Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst believes that the attack by Russian forces against Ukrainian Navy vessels on Nov. 25 was intended to provoke Kyiv into a strong military response that would give Moscow a pretext for a larger attack on Ukraine.

He said that, by showing restraint and limiting its response to largely diplomatic activity, Kyiv “can turn a Russian tactical victory into a strategic defeat.”
http://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/herbst-says-russia-wants-to-provoke-ukraine-as-excuse-for-more-military-action.html

[krimster2]

"Number of Russian tanks near border with Ukraine has tripled"

http://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/2589229-number-of-russian-tanks-near-border-with-ukraine-has-tripled-poroshenko.html

Russia has recently deployed anti-ship missiles in Northern Crimea

[jone]

Trump was supposed to get together with Putin at the upcoming G20 summit.  However, there are signals from the White House that he may skip the meeting to protest the Ukrainian ship seizure.  Putin is getting very good at playing the odd man out due to his country's continued harassment of its neighbors and NATO countries.   I guess if a country has a weak economy and poor infrastructure, there really isn't another play, is there?

[Trenchcoat]

The Ukraine needs either Nato, the US or the UK to station a significant amount of tanks, troops, jets & other hardware on its soil. Russia won't invade if it becomes obvious that it will draw in another major power it will be too much bother for them. Otherwise Ukraine looks ripe for an easy invasion and Putin will take advantage of the current to date lack of visible commitment to assist Ukraine by western powers beyond sanctions. I don't think sanctions will save Ukraine, I think Putin is after all of its territory to bring Ukraine into an enlarged Russia as part of its territory again. The west need to send in forces to stop this easy land grab by Putin.

[Blighty]

The Ukraine needs either Nato, the US or the UK to station a significant amount of tanks, troops, jets & other hardware on its soil. Russia won't invade if it becomes obvious that it will draw in another major power it will be too much bother for them. Otherwise Ukraine looks ripe for an easy invasion and Putin will take advantage of the current to date lack of visible commitment to assist Ukraine by western powers beyond sanctions. I don't think sanctions will save Ukraine, I think Putin is after all of its territory to bring Ukraine into an enlarged Russia as part of its territory again. The west need to send in forces to stop this easy land grab by Putin.

The West has still not learned from meddling in regions outside their sphere of influence ... look at the resulting chaos in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Loyalties are split in eastern Ukraine, and so your proposed solution would be unwelcome to many Ukrainians.

Poroshenko is an unpopular and useless President who has done nothing to unite his country. You need to understand the Russian psyche about being attacked 3 times by western countries. I have met plenty of older Ukrainians who still prefer Moscow to Kiev. Poroshenko's decision to celebrate Bandera has upset both Poles and Ukrainians, and underlines his lack of credibility.

There are always two sides to every argument!

[JayH]

The Ukraine needs either Nato, the US or the UK to station a significant amount of tanks, troops, jets & other hardware on its soil. Russia won't invade if it becomes obvious that it will draw in another major power it will be too much bother for them. Otherwise Ukraine looks ripe for an easy invasion and Putin will take advantage of the current to date lack of visible commitment to assist Ukraine by western powers beyond sanctions. I don't think sanctions will save Ukraine, I think Putin is after all of its territory to bring Ukraine into an enlarged Russia as part of its territory again. The west need to send in forces to stop this easy land grab by Putin.

It will not happen like that --but --this is the most sensible post TC has ever made /

By way of contrast --  after seeing a bit of the BBC's incredibly  ignorant "experts" just plain wrong comments about Ukraine and "rebels" in the east and more in summary of what just happened in the Kerch Strait  and now this below -- I can only presume Blighty is a rua refugee but still watching the RT  Russian propaganda for his news--

The West has still not learned from meddling in regions outside their sphere of influence ... look at the resulting chaos in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Loyalties are split in eastern Ukraine, and so your proposed solution would be unwelcome to many Ukrainians.

Poroshenko is an unpopular and useless President who has done nothing to unite his country. You need to understand the Russian psyche about being attacked 3 times by western countries. I have met plenty of older Ukrainians who still prefer Moscow to Kiev. Poroshenko's decision to celebrate Bandera has upset both Poles and Ukrainians, and underlines his lack of credibility.

There are always two sides to every argument!

The only meddling being done in Ukraine is by Russia -- as it attempts to destabilise  the country
AND -the large majority -the VERY large majority want to be free of Russia
Help from the west is not and would not be unwelcome -- a completely nonsense comment
LOYALTIES ARE NOT SPLIT -- ARE VERY LARGE MAJORITY WANT A UNITED COMPLETE UKRAINE
Not accurate on Poroshenko-not even close
You have met older Ukrainians?  mmmm that would be your wife's family or whatever-correct? I am guessing you wrote much the same 4years ago on the forum( the other place) !!  It was wrong then and even more wrong now

2 sides?   pathetic piece of rationalisation for the misguided rubbish you just posted that reflects Russian propaganda-- not what Ukrainians think or believe

And worse when you consider TC got it mostly right and a guy who ought to know better is still being sucked under by Russian propaganda cannot get even close to reality-- after how many years?

[GQBlues]

The West has still not learned from meddling in regions outside their sphere of influence ... look at the resulting chaos in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Ukraine. Loyalties are split in eastern Ukraine, and so your proposed solution would be unwelcome to many Ukrainians.

Agree completely!

..Poroshenko is an unpopular and useless President who has done nothing to unite his country. You need to understand the Russian psyche about being attacked 3 times by western countries. I have met plenty of older Ukrainians who still prefer Moscow to Kiev. Poroshenko's decision to celebrate Bandera has upset both Poles and Ukrainians, and underlines his lack of credibility...

It was supposed to be 'grass root', so I reckon wherever this leads to for Ukraine, it's Ukraine's business alone.

..There are always two sides to every argument!

In that part of the world, at least 4-5 sides. Even then, one is still not sure.

[krimster2]

straight outa Krim,

first up,
word goes out to Belbeck shock battalion
whose recent operation of mass car theft and fake license tags
abandoned in a coordinated fashion at every Western Ukrainian highway border crossing was a huge success on both days!

congrats guys!  what did you use for the fake explosives?

second, calm down on the war hysteria!

100% Putin will NOT attack until the end of 2019 when Nord Stream 2 is finished!
At that point, Putin can literally cut off Ukraine 100% from the gas supply and still transport to Europe.

If Putin attacks now, he will almost certainly have to shut down the gas supply to Europe, costing him Billions $$$

After Putin has a monopoly on gas supply to Europe, a lot of which is used for electrical power generation, Putin can demand whatever he wants from European politicians, including a higher price and acceptance of redrawing the map of Ukraine and Russia and elimination of sanctions.

In Russia, Putin will be a big hero, the bringer of water to Crimea
and remember folks,

it’s NOT about invading Ukraine!
no, it’s about uniting slavic brothers! (begin playing patriotic marching song)

PS
it's possible that as a consequence of the recent naval encounter, that the Sea of Azov will be off limits to Ukrainian shipping
in essence, Putin has grabbed another little piece of Ukraine...

so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!
plan ahead accordingly
and I'm a guy who used to live in Crimea who saw this exact same thing coming 10 years ago
IT'S WHY I LEFT!!!!

[ML]

so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!
plan ahead accordingly
and I'm a guy who used to live in Crimea who saw this exact same thing coming 10 years ago
IT'S WHY I LEFT!!!!

So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian. 
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?

Should wife offer her Kyiv properties for sale now, or wait a while longer?

She has some properties west of Kyiv also.
How far west in Ukraine must one live to be safe?

Will we have to allow Putin to stay rent free in her properties while he is vacationing in the area?

Will he want fishing rights also?

[JayH]

The linked article is self explanatory.
An interesting aside to Trump admin --  regardless of what the Trump motives to cosy up to Russia were -- most of those who were in his ear and now proven as compromised and tried to remove sanctions/change policy etc in regard to Russia are now gone -- and replaced with hawks towards  Russia .Maybe they can push Trump in a more sensible direction.
If I was advising Trump-- I would make the point that standing over Putin will get his attention and respect-- being a wet blanket and Putin will continue laughing at you ! That ought to appeal too the Trump ego !


US, allies must check Putin’s latest move against Ukraine

Ukraine is on the front lines of defense against Russia’s pernicious espionage, military, cyber and economic attacks. The time is ripe for U.S. leadership, and Ukraine’s sovereignty is where we should draw and enforce a red line.

http://thehill.com/opinion/international/418633-us-allies-must-check-putins-latest-move-against-ukraine

[JayH]

So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian. 
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?

Did you see the Captain of one of the Ukrainian ships  when appearing in the Russian court said he needed an interpreter to understand the proceedings as he did not speak Russian !1and only speaks Ukrainian !

ML -the serious side of all this is that this is the start of the next stage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine -- and it will go as far as Putin can get away with it.

My view is that this is by far the most dangerous period Ukraine has faced -- and if the west does nothing --Putin will proceed

[Boethius]

Did you see the Captain of one of the Ukrainian ships  when appearing in the Russian court said he needed an interpreter to understand the proceedings as he did not speak Russian !1and only speaks Ukrainian !

That is extremely unlikely, unless he is (a) from Western Ukraine AND (b) under 30.  It's more about making a point.


This post was composed without the aid of google.

[JayH]

That is extremely unlikely, unless he is (a) from Western Ukraine AND (b) under 30.  It's more about making a point.

Exactly

[krimster2]

“So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian.
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?”


nope, if Russia takes over you won’t have to learn Russian, cuz unless you do all the new Russian legal documentation and it gets “approved" you won’t own property there any more, and will mean your wife better apply for Russian citizenship BTW...
this is what’s happened/happening to huge numbers in Crimea





“Should wife offer her Kyiv properties for sale now, or wait a while longer?”

you should start digging a trench to protect your property, put up a good fight!!!!!




“She has some properties west of Kyiv also.
How far west in Ukraine must one live to be safe?”

Is the oblast you own property in currently under martial law?
if yes, then it’ll be Russian
if no, then Ukrainian
this is about how it’ll work out in the end




“Will we have to allow Putin to stay rent free in her properties while he is vacationing in the area?

what do you mean, according to court records your property ownership was recently transferred under Russian District court order to someone with a Moscow address!



Will he want fishing rights also?

would you seriously even consider depriving him of this?

[DaveNY]

US, allies must check Putin’s latest move against Ukraine

Ukraine is on the front lines of defense against Russia’s pernicious espionage, military, cyber and economic attacks. The time is ripe for U.S. leadership, and Ukraine’s sovereignty is where we should draw and enforce a red line.

http://thehill.com/opinion/international/418633-us-allies-must-check-putins-latest-move-against-ukraine

Right now the country that has the most power to use against Russia is Germany, not the US. If Germany were to say that Nord Stream 2 is dead because of Putin's actions in Ukraine that would be far more devastating to Putin than anything the US could do economically.

Of course Europe being Europe, meaning they're incapable of action unless the US leads, are waiting for Trump to take the lead. Why doesn't Germany step up and take the lead?

[GQBlues]

...If I was advising Trump

Thank good ness for small favors you don't.

You should instead advise your own PM and country. The impotency of you and your government in world's affair is no one else's business. Just as Ukraine's affair are their own and no one else's.

[Trenchcoat]

I disagree that Ukraine's affairs are their own. The same attitude led Hitler to overun much of Europe unchallenged. Sooo much easier to stop an aggressor from taking territory on the first place than have to go through all of it fighting to free it bit by bit. Ukraine has made it clear that they do not wish to be in Russia's sphere of influence. Complacently terming Ukraine under the old rules of the Soviet Union just makes it easy pickings for Russia. I'm sure Ukraine would more than welcome the intervention of western forces and invite us onto their territory to help them out.

I wonder if there is much initiative within Ukrainian expats in western countries to form Lobby groups to press for their countries to take action in sending forces to station in Ukraine.

[JayH]

I disagree that Ukraine's affairs are their own. The same attitude led Hitler to overun much of Europe unchallenged. Sooo much easier to stop an aggressor from taking territory on the first place than have to go through all of it fighting to free it bit by bit. Ukraine has made it clear that they do not wish to be in Russia's sphere of influence. Complacently terming Ukraine under the old rules of the Soviet Union just makes it easy pickings for Russia. I'm sure Ukraine would more than welcome the intervention of western forces and invite us onto their territory to help them out.

I wonder if there is much initiative within Ukrainian expats in western countries to form Lobby groups to press for their countries to take action in sending forces to station in Ukraine.

There are quite a few nations assisting Ukraine in training troops. More recently the push has been to train special forces & specialised troops.
There has been quite an effort by those with an interest in Ukraine to "lobby" numerous western governments and try and get the real facts known and get assistance for Ukraine .The big problem is that the US needs to be at the centre -- and history shows others will assist if that is the case.
It does not help when organisations like the BBC keep using the terms separatists and rebels to describe the Russians who have invaded Ukraine and keep quoting Moscow based journalists on Ukraine affairs.

[Blighty]

It does not help when organisations like the BBC keep using the terms separatists and rebels to describe the Russians who have invaded Ukraine and keep quoting Moscow based journalists on Ukraine affairs.

Perhaps the label 'Neo-Nazi' does not help their image! Of course that is all due to the Russian-controlled Guardian newspaper with articles such as

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/23/ukrainian-far-right-groups-violence-kiev-pravy-sektor
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/12/ukraine-government-armed-standoff-right-sector-militia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/02/neo-nazi-groups-recruit-britons-to-fight-in-ukraine
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/mar/13/ukraine-far-right-national-militia-takes-law-into-own-hands-neo-nazi-links

[rwd123]

so I want to go on record now
and tell all the westerners living in or owning property in Ukraine
unless you are in the north western part of Ukraine, sometime within the next 4 years, you're going to be living in Russia!

I toyed with the idea of buying an apartment in Odessa - you can get a nice place for 50,000USD or less with ongoings of ~1,000USD/year, but am baulking at the idea for this exact reason.

[rwd123]

So far I have refused to learn Ukrainian. 
Will that mean I must then refuse to learn Russian?

Should wife offer her Kyiv properties for sale now, or wait a while longer?

She has some properties west of Kyiv also.
How far west in Ukraine must one live to be safe?

Which side of the Dnieper River are her properties? East bank may become Russian!

Western Ukraine should be ok, but that's not say their values with not decrease. If Russia shuts off gas transit there goes 5-6% of GDP. If it takes Sea of Azov and Odessa there goes shipping and a large percentage of exports. The economy will be decimated. The country continues to be looted by corruption too.

When I was in Lviv I wasn't sure if it was better to speak English (people may not understand) or Russian (people may not like it) - so I ended up trying to combine them!

Russia will (attempt to) take more of Ukraine as part of its territories as the Ukrainian military is depleted and there is no will from Europe or the USA to really get involved other than to make money. The only hope the Ukrainian people have is a leader that unites the country and is less corrupt than any the country has had over the last 30 years. Timoshenko is far from that and likely to be the next president.

Ukraine is Poland of the 21st century. It is screwed.