The Struggle For Ukraine

[Trenchcoat]

Apparently Iran might soon attack Israel, another possible war?

http://www.lbc.co.uk/news/joe-biden-iran-imminent-attack-israel-us-support-ironclad/

If so it could be a chance to take out Iran, doing so I would stop the supply of weapons from Iran to Russia. Israel alone mag be too small a country to do it but if the US come in then defeating Iran could be possible.

The attack warning turned out to be true:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053

This would be a good opportunity for Israel to declare war on Iran. It could serve Israel and the West well to take out Iran, a return to Persia perhaps? Doing so would solve a lot of problems and remove a menace from the world.

[Trenchcoat]

So the big question, who will win in Ukraine, Russia or Ukraine?

Here is a recent article suggesting a Russian victory:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68778338

I though am not so sure unless the Russians break through the lines with conventional forces or by use of unconventional methods.

For Ukraine they only have to hold on so long for Russia to run out of Armaments and/or Finance for the war effort.

That will likely be in about a year to likely at most 18 months time.

By the time Russia starts running low on Armaments and Finance it needs to decide whether to use Nuclear, Neutron or Chemical weapons to win the war or admit defeat and pull out of Ukraine. That is if some big event doesn't happen in Russia first like a big uprising, a coup or ousting of Putler.


The bottom line seems to be though that at most this war is likely to run for a maximum of a year to 18 months before we see who has won. That the war is highly unlikely to go for any longer than that.

[krimster2]

google "the Republican Russian Caucus" a motley crew of MAGA racists and homophobes (shhhh, don't call 'em that)

the Republican Russian caucus has handed Phutin 'a window of opportunity'
and they'll try to keep this window open for him 'as long as possible'
by delaying or denying the Ukraine Aid Bill between now and the election (the delay is 6 months so far)

imagine if in WWII, the Republican German Caucus vetoed Lend-Lease to the UK
after the Gestapo aided the election of the leader of the Republican Party
and as a result, the UK got the shite kicked out of it by Hitler

see how clever...

as Zelensky has said, "Ukraine can't beat Russia without the US's help"

any 'Peace Plan" put forth by Putin, was viewed simply as a way for Russia to buy time to regroup and rearm and to then relaunch their attack with renewed vigor
i'm wondering, if Zelensky should pursue a similar approach for the same reason
and await the outcome of the US election this Nov, and resume the war, if the outcome is in his favor

i'm sure his staff has done a 'cost/benefit' analysis
so he'll know when the war gets to the point that this is a good strategy for him
but currently, he's not at this point

[krimster2]

son of a gun!!!!

GOOD NEWS!
Ukraine bill may actually get voted on next week!!!!

BAD NEWS!
they're gonna throw out the old bill and start over with a new bills to separate Ukraine/Israel aid
so this is gonna take s'more time

meanwhile 'Moscow Marjorie"

Marjorie Taylor Greene has introduced an amendment to the foreign aid bill to require members of Congress who vote in favor of providing aid to Ukraine to join the Ukraine's military.

http://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-ukraine-aid-billl-join-army-mike-johnson-republicans-1891582

after this stunt, it'd be freakin hilarious if Ukraine gave 'honorary' commisions in the Ukrainian Army to the yes voters

if the bill passes, there ain't NEVER gonna be a Trump Tower in Moscva City Center!!!

our 'Comedy Club Congress"
in response to 'Moscow Marjorie's amendment, a counter-amendment has been filed naming Moscow Marjorie as Putin's Envoy

http://crooksandliars.com/2024/04/rep-jared-moscowitz-submits-amendment-make

[krimster2]

more progress on ukraine's aid bill!

1st step done

it's been streamlined, it's possible to have this 'a done deal' within a week, and signed by President Biden
unless...
"The Russian Caucus" intends to renew their obstruction in some new fashion

in another bill, Israel to receive 26 billion USD for NOT blowin the crap outta Iran or damaging it's oil production
but Moscow Marjorie wanted the 'Jewish Space Lasers' for the border to zap hang gliding border crossers (True Story)

Nero fiddled while Rome burned
today, we have a whole damned orchestra


 

[Grumpy]

But our military aid to Ukraine is also revitalizing our defense industrial base, creating hot production lines for the weapons we need to deter potential adversaries and creating manufacturing jobs in the United States. That’s because 90 percent of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has thus far approved is not going to Ukraine but is being spent in the United States, according to an analysis by Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

With a team of researchers at the American Enterprise Institute, I have catalogued the weapons systems being produced in the United States for Ukraine, identifying the congressional districts where they are being made and how House members voted on the funding. We analyzed contracts and news releases and spoke to defense industry experts, diplomats and Pentagon officials to determine where U.S. tax dollars end up. We found that our military aid is providing a major cash infusion to 122 defense production lines in 65 congressional districts across the country that directly benefits American workers — and that doesn’t count all the suppliers that provide these contractors with parts or all the shops, restaurants and other businesses that support the factories rolling out weapons in these districts.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/18/ukraine-map-districts-weapons/

[krimster2]

The Bill just passed in the House!!
goes to the senate, should quickly pass there....

there have been a LOT of Republicans quitting the house this year
a story is goin around, that several non-MAGA republicans were gonna QUIT immediately if Mike Johnson was replaced as House Speaker by the "Freedumb Caucus" to block the Ukraine vote
thus giving Democrats a temporary majority, but one thay could still vote with

and since such an odius event would be hung around the necks of the Freedumb Caucus, with just 6+ months left to the election
the Freedumb Caucus appears to have backed down to save their own asses
and now even 'Dear Leader' of the Freedumb Caucuus, AKA The Orange Shit Gibbon (said w/affection), has reversed his position in the last 48 hrs and is now pro-Ukraine aid

real politik is always about 'preserving your own power' as yur highest priority
and recognizing things that threaten it

the biggest threat to the Freedumb Caucus, turned out to be the Freedumb Caucus itself

whenever you see such chaos, it doesn't all 'just happen', no, there's always someone ya can't see in the driver's seat

one day we'll hear the delightful details of this road trip

meanwhile Medvedev, aka Trollstoy, had the following to say

"But considering the rusophobic decision that took place I can't help but wish the USA with all sincerity to dive into a new civil war themselves as quickly as possible. Which, I hope, will be very different from the war between North and South in the 19th century and will be waged using aircraft, tanks, artillery, MLRS, all types of missiles and other weapons. And which will finally lead to the inglorious collapse of the vile evil empire of the 21st century - the United States of America."

he gleaned his material from stuff I wrote on RWD, doncha know

Russians shoulda hired me after all...
I still wouldn't sleep with Putin's daughter cuz of her uncanny resemblence to Putin
this image would be 'inhibitory' instead of arousing, and I don't care if she's in charge of "Import Substitution' and is one of the biggest grifters in Russia

[krimster2]

Trump's switching to the 'winning side' has major implications for the upcoming "oktyabr surprize'
before it wuz always gonna be directed against biden

now...i'm thinkin' it might not be...
because the 'useful idiot' just demoted himself to only bein an idiot in Putin's eyes
and is now more useful as a 'casus belli' to get the Jan 6 crowd to act once more, if 'something were to happen'
I derive this, from Medvedev's comments

[krimster2]

Senate just passed the ukraine aid bill
President Biden will sign it tomorrow

Ukraine is NOW getting EVERYTHING they wanted, F-16s and long range Rockets, and Patriots
and will also get about an additional 8 billion in frozen Russian asset funding as well
Putin, has a a short window...

[Trenchcoat]

Senate just passed the ukraine aid bill
President Biden will sign it tomorrow

Ukraine is NOW getting EVERYTHING they wanted, F-16s and long range Rockets, and Patriots
and will also get about an additional 8 billion in frozen Russian asset funding as well
Putin, has a a short window...

That's the biggest fear that the Russians will attack before they manage to get the gear to the frontline:

http://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-preparing-major-russian-spring-offensive/

For sound reason there has been a lot of talk in Europe of getting Ukraine the weapons it needs, Germany giving so much, other countries doing the same, the Czech initiative to buy shells for Ukraine with many countries signing up to it. But it's either just all talk or incredibly painfully slow. It's apparent from reports such as this and elsewhere that nothing of note is getting to the front.That I find incredibly poor that European Nations just seem incapable of realising that they need to get some gear to Ukrainian front and very fast now or Ukraine could succumb to a Russian Offensive should they launch one in the next few weeks.

I just find it incredible since western nations have much weapons in their arsenal many coming towards being replaced by newer upgrades anyway or are just sat there. The UK has about 200 Challenger 2 tanks due to be replaced by Challenger 3 tanks in the coming months/years but gives Ukraine only 14. The UK has much Artillery and assault rifles and munitions but gives very little of that. Much again would never really be used and would just be sat there until it is scrapped at some point anyway. Yesterday Sunak said that he would be giving Ukraine £500 million worth in Ukrainian aid right away but I am not so sure if it will get there. Lots of assurances from European nations but very little action it seems. My guess is that they are all being Royal Standbacks waiting for the US to dig into its pocket first and probably won't supply much if anything at all.

Meanwhile every day the Russians don't launch a major offensive on the Ukrainian lines buys them time to prepare better and hope that weapons will arrive soon, but if their arsenal runs too low they are going to be too badly exposed whatever the defenses.

Getting new recruits to the front quickly is also needed. I am not so sure that losing the Conscription age from 27 to 25 will gain that many more recruits, at least not for long. That might soon have to be lowered to 23 or even 21 in order to get enough men there. That I think they would be better off doing sooner rather than later. Ukrainians on the front line are heavily outnumbered by the Russians and although often better trained too many Russian soldiers threaten to overwhelm the Ukrainian lines. So I think to stand much chance against a major Russian offensive Ukraine needs to quickly rush as many men to the front as possible.

I fear that not enough is being done and it is all potentially coming too late. The US seems to be serious at least now that the aid package has finally passed but time is ticking. I just hope that the Russians don't launch their offensive soon and the military aid gets to the front in time. At the moment though I still read either way that Ukrainian troop numbers are too few and need bolstering significantly.

[Stirlitz]

Ukraine is NOW getting EVERYTHING they wanted, F-16s and long range Rockets, and Patriots

Good news, yet I don’t believe we are getting as many of those as we really need to win the war. Most likely, we’ll get a score of F-16, a couple of Patriots and perpaps a hundred ATACAMS. And I really hope they will not be castrated before handed over to us. Like having the state-of-art equipment removed and replaced with something obsolete, range cut, etc. Remember how we got as many as 31 Abrams last year? While we needed at least 500 to make a difference. And without air cover they turned almost useless anyway.


So I am sure we are NOT getting everything we wanted. Just a fraction thereof. I have learned to never underestimate the hypocricy of the American politicum since 2014.


And it is easy to prove. If we indeed get everything we want, the war will be over by the fall.


Where I really pin my hopes is China. That is, if the USA really 'persuade' them to stop supporting Muscovy. Then there is a very big probability that the Nazis withdraw by the New Year.

[krimster2]

'moy brat'
Ukraine has Yanukovych, and Medvedchuk and plenty more...
The USA has 'Moscow Marjorie' and the rest of the Pro-Russian Republican Caucus...
not much different in terms of the their purpose or results...
they are worse than hypocrites, they are phuquing filthy TRAITORS who serve Putin

Yes, longer range racketa (long range ATACMS were ALREADY delivered to Ukraine and used recently in Zhankoi, you just didn't hear about it until now...)

congress will very likely have a democratic majority after the next election
and this political sabotage will not happen after that...

half the money Ukraine gets from the IMF also comes from the USA
and America will soon be forwarding sanctioned Russian money to Ukraine as well

yes, I watch Ukrainian TV on YouTube to...
The only thing Russians and Ukrainians BOTH agree on, is both sides blame America for everything that's going wrong in the war. and NOT somebody in Russia or Ukraine...
since Russia blames the US more than Ukraine does, then I guess we're doin' OK!!

however, everyone always has to learn to fight with the Army they have, and not with the army they wish you had

not sure when this new aid will run out...
but before the end of the year, Ukraine will need another 'fix....

Putin's ever dwindling supply of weapons made during the CCCP period,
won't lead him to end the war
if he did did, he'd get Prigozhined by some bizznessman/mafia malchick

instead, when Phutin gets down to his last pooshka
he will decide, which WMD to use in Ukraine and where
because he has no other path
and Putin always makes the dumbest moves, cuz his advisors are afraid to tell him 'things' he doesn't want to hear


 

[Trenchcoat]

not sure when this new aid will run out...
but before the end of the year, Ukraine will need another 'fix....

Putin's ever dwindling supply of weapons made during the CCCP period,
won't lead him to end the war
if he did did, he'd get Prigozhined by some bizznessman/mafia malchick

instead, when Phutin gets down to his last pooshka
he will decide, which WMD to use in Ukraine and where
because he has no other path
and Putin always makes the dumbest moves, cuz his advisors are afraid to tell him 'things' he doesn't want to hear

So unless fate intervenes to decide otherwise then Ukraine looks likely to lose the war due to Russia resorting to WMD. The West gets the bonus of knowing that Putler won't have much if an Army left to go on the rampage with elsewhere as he's Artillery will be non existent with which is normally used to pummel enemies into submission with his bully boy tactics. Plus Russia will be too skint and suffering economic woes to start up much elsewhere, possibly just Moldova but that may get about it at a stretch.

So Russia will have Ukraine and have to sort out the situation there. Many Ukrainians own property there, foreigners also, will they still do so after a Russian victory? Many Ukrainians have fled abroad and many maybe most won't return home under a country ruled by a foreign dictator so I would assume they will end up living and becoming residents/citizens in the country that they sought refuge in. Their refugee country becoming their permanent country of abode for possibly the rest of their lives, for generations even. So possibly generations of Ukrainians in exiled communities abroad, throughout Europe, the US, etc. Communities of self exiled Russians too in slightly fewer numbers too I would guess who have fled from Russia since the start of the war.

Events though often repeat themselves and I wonder if there is a chance that in the future once Putler has passed on/no longer leader that Russia & Ukraine will open up again to these once exiled communities and they'll have access again to their former homeland. Even possibly Ukraine breaking away once again from Russia if the economic woes get too bad for Russia to hold onto Ukraine.

[ML]

Ukraine is not going to lose the war.
Not in the sense that most all of Ukraine will be occupied by Russian military.
Occupation of enemy territory is a very costly undertaking, and Ukrainians will never stop fighting a guerilla war if necessary.

But to the other points . . . Russia is not going to run out of any military equipment.
They have already geared up to a full war time economy to mass produce all they need and will continue to get from China, N. Korea, Iran and others.

The real problem for Putin and his like minded successors will be (if the Russian people ever wake up) when people get tired of not having the upscale and even basic consumer goods they have become used to because such are not being produced and no money to import or restrictions on importing.

Russians by nature and history like to suffer.
But how hard and long they will be willing to suffer is another question.

Some real progress in this direction would be if western countries expell ALL Russians . . . students, business persons, retirees, etc.

Most all Russians support Putin . . . but still they want their children to be educated abroad . . . and probably stay abroad.

They are willing and eager to suffer . . . but don't neccessarily want their children to.

Remember how there used to be a wholesale event of pregnant Russian women flying to Florida and elsewhere to give birth to attain US citizenship for their children ?

- - - - - -

Over breakfast this morning wife was telling me another interesting tidbit.

Russia's Black Sea fleet was built up as a Turkish deterrent.

With Ukraine having fairly good success at destroying parts of the Russian fleet . . . .

[krimster2]

The West and Ukraine, better have a plan ready for when Putin switches to WMDs
in case, saying "DON'T" turns out to be an inadequate response...

Putina has millions of Ukrainian hostages to 'bargain' with against any direct Western military response to the Russian military using WMDs on Ukraine

what then???

The Mighty Russian Industrial Machine is a freakin joke, it's a Potempkin Zavod
there's no way it can outproduce it's losses even with buying Crap from Iran and North Korea...and secretly shipping components from the USA w/ Putin's daughter

Putina was trying to buy time, until Trump 'won' the election....
but now even HE sees 'the handwriting' on the wall

[Trenchcoat]

Ukraine is not going to lose the war.
Not in the sense that most all of Ukraine will be occupied by Russian military.
Occupation of enemy territory is a very costly undertaking, and Ukrainians will never stop fighting a guerilla war if necessary.

But isn't Russia's tactic just to move the population elsewhere, to Siberia, that's what Stalin did and Putler has so far seemingly done the same with the areas he has taken, Mariupol, etc. Russians buy in to good areas over looking the sea or are given it if they are soldiers or officers based in the area. Many Ukrainians taken and shipped off to other parts of Russia particularly if they are seen are trouble making or not in support enough of the Russian regime.

I'm not saying that Russia will move all Ukrainians out of Ukraine but perhaps many, especially those not so accepting of Russification, of using the Russian language, etc. Presumably teaching of and use of the Ukrainian language will become banned possibly English also I would assume.

[ML]

I still strongly believe that the west, and particularly USA no matter who is president, will not let Russia win.

The longer run consequences of such will just be unthinkable.

[Grumpy]

Mihai Popsoi, Moldova’s 37-year-old newly minted top diplomat, was in Washington to remind Biden administration officials and lawmakers that the war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor two years ago, the 3 million residents of Moldova have faced unprecedented instability and anxiety. Putin is threatening Moldova’s security, squeezing its economy and undermining its democracy, efforts that are all aimed at replacing its pro-Western leadership with a new government bought and paid for by the Kremlin.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/25/moldova-russian-politics-ukraine-invasion-europe/

[krimster2]

if Putina wins in Ukraine....
Ukrainians will still end up fighting...

but FOR Putin, instead of against him!
in Moldavanka and Georgia and the 'stans...

and AFTER uKRAINE, THE WARS OF RE-CONQUEST WILL BE FOUGHT primarily with Ukrainian Janissaries,
and the enemy will be Drone-Bombing Ukraine, isteada Russia....

so the cost that RUSSIANS pay for continuing the wars of re-conquest will be less
but the cost that Ukrainians pay will be much more than what they're paying even now
the costs get transferred to Ukraine, but the profits ALL go to Russians!!!

and this is the primary purpose of this expansion policy

[Trenchcoat]

Mihai Popsoi, Moldova’s 37-year-old newly minted top diplomat, was in Washington to remind Biden administration officials and lawmakers that the war in Ukraine is not just about Ukraine. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of its neighbor two years ago, the 3 million residents of Moldova have faced unprecedented instability and anxiety. Putin is threatening Moldova’s security, squeezing its economy and undermining its democracy, efforts that are all aimed at replacing its pro-Western leadership with a new government bought and paid for by the Kremlin.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/04/25/moldova-russian-politics-ukraine-invasion-europe/

I think for sure that Moldova as a small country bordering Ukraine could be a viable follow up target for Russia. The Transnistria region and Russian population gives it the excuse. Beefarmer believes that there is geographical strategic importance for Ukraine to gain Moldova that it would make it's borders easier to defend. I think it is potentially weak enough for Russia to follow up and take and it is still not a part of NATO or the EU.

Finland & Sweden I am sure are too strong for Russia to want to try and are a part of NATO/EU. Finland hasn't been a part of Ruddy for a very long time so I don't think Russia is that concerned with Finland. Georgia is a possibility but well away from Europe behind Russian lines so I don't think Russia is too concerned, it has a roughly pro Kremlin party in control there so I don't think Russia will get rushing there in haste, it's more the European borders it seems concerned about. The Stand too I think it is not too bothered about as it can influence matters there from afar.

So you have a relationship interest in Moldova Grumpy? It would be interesting to hear as so many threads here about Ukrainian & Russian relationships. How about starting a thread on it?

[krimster2]

if Putina wins in Ukraine....
Ukrainians will still end up fighting...

but FOR Putin, instead of against him!
in Moldavanka and Georgia and the 'stans...

and whatever former FSU member Putin's fighting with his Ukrainian Janissaries, will THEN be Drone-Bombing Ukraine, isteada Russia....

so the cost that RUSSIANS pay for continuing the war, will be less
but the cost that Ukrainians pay will be even more
the costs get transferred to Ukraine, but the profits ALL go to Russians!!!

I'm now considering that Putin will use Novichok next year...
Why?

Ukraine's forces are 'static' and partially blocked by mines, limiting movement
perfect Novichok targets

the West or Ukraine has no chemical stockpile to counter with
whatever military response West/Ukraine gives will be easily countered by 'Novichoking' a Ukrainian city in response
and saying, "next time, we'll do TWO CITIES"

so there won't be a 'next time'

and that's it, that's how Ukraine loses the war....
cuz of a florinated organo-phosphate compound invented in Moscva

lesson learned: If yur a dumb Phuque, it's best to be a dumb Phuque with the ability to produce a lotta methyl-iso-cyanate to turn into Novichok-A236, then just a 'simple' dumb Phuque with a buncha starry grozny pooshki which is TOTALLY ne kruto!!!
SLOVO!!

Russian Cruise Missile Cruisers are movin into the Eastern Med, to Launch at Odesa
will the US Navy try to shoot them down like they did with the ones pointed at Israel
we'll see...

[Trenchcoat]

if Putina wins in Ukraine....
Ukrainians will still end up fighting...

but FOR Putin, instead of against him!
in Moldavanka and Georgia and the 'stans...

and whatever former FSU member Putin's fighting with his Ukrainian Janissaries, will THEN be Drone-Bombing Ukraine, isteada Russia....

so the cost that RUSSIANS pay for continuing the war, will be less
but the cost that Ukrainians pay will be even more
the costs get transferred to Ukraine, but the profits ALL go to Russians!!!

I'm now considering that Putin will use Novichok next year...
Why?

Ukraine's forces are 'static' and partially blocked by mines, limiting movement
perfect Novichok targets

the West or Ukraine has no chemical stockpile to counter with
whatever military response West/Ukraine gives will be easily countered by 'Novichoking' a Ukrainian city in response
and saying, "next time, we'll do TWO CITIES"

so there won't be a 'next time'

and that's it, that's how Ukraine loses the war....
cuz of a florinated organo-phosphate compound invented in Moscva

lesson learned: If yur a dumb Phuque, it's best to be a dumb Phuque with the ability to produce a lotta methyl-iso-cyanate to turn into Novichok-A236, then just a 'simple' dumb Phuque with a buncha starry grozny pooshki which is TOTALLY ne kruto!!!
SLOVO!!

Russian Cruise Missile Cruisers are movin into the Eastern Med, to Launch at Odesa
will the US Navy try to shoot them down like they did with the ones pointed at Israel
we'll see...

Good reasoning Krim, what do you reckon will happen to the civilian population in Ukraine, the Women & children, a lot of people to all move to Siberia. Do you think the Russians will leave a lot of them in place so long as they don't cause trouble and let them keep their homes?

What do you think will become of Rancho el Krim?

[krimster2]

ahhh, the joyous tools of Russian oppression
Tried-and-True methods of ethnic cleansing, to get out those stubborn Ukrainian stains try Novo Pootin Pooska Poley for sale at Trump Mucovy Mall

1. transport whole villages on the Gulag-Bahn Rail Lines to Siber - Choot! Choot!
2. Prison Factories
3. Compulsory membership in a  Holodomor Re-enactment Society
4. Target practice!!!
5. Mine clearing!!

but NO GAYZ!!!!
GAYZ ain't allowed in Russia!!!!
ya wanna be GAY go live in decadent France or Amerika!!!

Rancho Del Krim has fallen on hard times, no men left in the village, they all Mobiks, just wimmin left....
explosions heard all 'round at least once per week
drone parts landed in village
Atesh Partisans derailed a train nearby

if Russians ever found all the equipment I buried, and figured out what I had used it for, they'd have a BOLSHOI FREAK-OUT!!!!
and the hunter would be hunted
but now I is in the USA...  and they can kiss my bela jhoppa!

haha, I joke...I joke...I kid...I kid...
I am just harmless 'ole Geezer, haha
can I haz cheeseburger?

[Bee Farmer]

Over breakfast this morning wife was telling me another interesting tidbit.

Russia's Black Sea fleet was built up as a Turkish deterrent.

With Ukraine having fairly good success at destroying parts of the Russian fleet . . . .

Over the centuries, Russia has been invaded a number of times through the Bessarabian Gap in Moldova and Romania, and via the Crimean peninsula.

Russia has no way to protect against an invasion by Turkey if they are unable to take control of the Bessarabian Gap.  And to do that, Russia needs to conquer Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. (a NATO country)  If they are able to secure the Bessarabian Gap to protect against Turkey...it involves a war against NATO in Romania.  But if they don't, they can't defend themself without using nukes.

But Russia also needs to secure the Polish Gap, because they have been invaded through there too.  Once again, that means going to war with NATO.

And Russia needs to secure the Baltic countries, to protect against invasion there.  That's how Sweden has invaded Russia before.  Once again, that involves going to war with NATO.

If Ukraine falls, nukes are going to fly.  It's the only way Russia stands a chance in a war against NATO.
But if Ukraine doesn't fall, Russia will keep attacking Ukraine until it can't, because securing the Bessarabian Gap is an existential threat for Russia.
If Ukraine beats Russia, the only way Ukraine can prevent Russia from attacking again and again is for Ukraine to invade Russia and take control of Belgorod and Rostov on Don, since those are the logistical hubs Russia uses.  But if Ukraine takes Belgorod and Rostov, that's an invasion of Mother Russia, and Russia has said that if that happens, nukes will fly.

The best scenario for NATO is to Russia to never get out of Ukraine...just a quagmire where neither side can win.  Good for NATO...but extremely bad for Ukraine.  But so far, it appears that Ukraine is willing to fight to the last man to make sure Russia doesn't go head to head with NATO and have nukes start flying.

[krimster2]

please stop quoting Peter Zeihan here...
his map is absolutely NOT the territory and is rubbish...his map will just get ya lost

the person to have listened to...was Prighozhin
right before Putin murdered him, he said, that the primary reson for the war, was to benefit about 200 oligarchs, google is yur droog