2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[IvanM07]

I am worried about this as I have gall bladder surgery scheduled for 10th of March.

But if the virus starts to be treated in my local hospital before that . . . .

Gall bladder pain has been fairly  constant for past several days, but only around 2-3.

Was thinking about going to emergency room right now and tell them the pain is 9-10.

Might be a good time to do it now. Or if you opt for later, a Rural ER.

[BillyB]

if your numbers are correctedly depicted then this is going to be very bsd.   it seems you are saying thta most people are still infected and it would seem many will be dead later...the way you characterize it is hardly anybody survives...if that is the cqse then in a few weeks 80k will be dead. we shall see

I used numbers from some nations who have some of the worst survival rates. As I type this John Hopkins reports 36,063 people in the world finished a battle with the virus. 33,253 made a full recovery. 2810 died. I suspect a lot more dead since China underreports and some countries like N Korea isn't reporting at all but for arguments sake, lets say the numbers are true. That means 7.8 % of the people are dying from this virus. Mortality rate is extremely high. If everybody in this world got this virus once, 600 million people will die. But that is not the scary thing we need to worry about.....

Our bodies already experiences coronaviruses that cause the common cold. There is no cure/vaccine for the common cold viruses. There probably won't be a cure/vaccine ever discovered for 2019 - nCoV. We may have to live with this virus forever and if it maintains a 7.8% rate of death for those infected and we catch this virus ten times in our lives, there's a good chance most of us will die from it eventually. This virus must be eradicated from the human body and if it did come from an animal, those animals must be liquidated. If humanity fails to control this virus and we have to live with it everyday like we do the common cold viruses, our life expectancy will be significantly reduced. this deadly virus will also modify our behavior on many levels.

Governments don't want to send the public into a panic but billions are being designated to find a cure. Every lab capable of inventing a cure is at work. If any nation fails to control the virus, they will spend even more quarantining people, closing schools, other places of public gatherings, and closing even their economy in an effort to beat the virus just as China is doing now.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#definition

[krimster2]

then you'll have the ER co-pay...

I think you'' be OK to wait out the next 10 days
OTOH, if you go the ER route you'll get pain killers, at least 2.5 mg of morphine at a minimum
you'll be in the warm embrace of Morpheus
feelin fine
not a bad journey to take
before you walk through the valley of the shadow of death
happy visions only for you Pilgrim

[tfcrew]

...the Chinese scientists writing in The Lancet medical journal later revealed that the first patient known to have contracted the novel coronavirus had no link to the Wuhan seafood market that the Chinese government pointed to as the source of the outbreak. This would suggest that the virus all along was spreading via human-to-human transmission – and that the government was lying to the public from the very beginning of this catastrophe.

http://thediplomat.com/2020/02/the-coronavirus-outbreak-how-democratic-taiwan-outperformed-authoritarian-china/

[BillyB]

Trump is probably going to force private companies that manufacture masks to focus on manufacturing 300 million masks to combat the virus. Goal is to get a mask for every American and change slogan for 2020 election campaign to Make America Virus Free Again.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/exclusive-us-mulls-using-sweeping-powers-to-ramp-up-production-of-coronavirus-protective-gear/ar-BB10u5ge?ocid=spartanntp

I like the mask below. $9 and it fits snuggly over the face. I see a lot of Chinese not wearing their fabric masks properly. That aluminum strip needs to be form fitted over the nose otherwise air can get around the mask. Also needed is eye protection since the virus can get in the eyes and infect.

http://fadtype.com/DANIU-6200-N95-Double-Gas-Mask-Protection-Filter-Chemical-Half-Face-Respirator-Mask-1175732

In my local news a school staffer takes an international vacation and one of the family members is getting tested for the virus and the high school the staffer works in is shut down so the entire campus can get disinfected. Taxpayers to staffer "We hope you enjoyed your f'ing vacation"

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/bothell-high-school-closed-thursday-in-an-abundance-of-caution-over-coronavirus-fears-after-staffer-traveled-internationally/

South Korea is currently experiencing a virus explosion with over 2000 infected now but Canadian researchers estimate Iran has over 18,000 infected and are underreporting since they claim only 245 of their citizens are infected. Iran's deputy Health Minister said quarantines were a “Stone Age” way to address the problem, and Iran doesn’t need them. Later that evening he tested positive for the virus and then used a Stone Age solution quarantining himself for a modern day problem.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-t-hide-coronavirus-explosion-102629171.html

Iran's Vice President has tested positive for the virus. Like China, Iran is probably underreporting and nations neighboring Iran are shutting down borders. Russia is restricting all flights from Iran. There is good news coming out of Iran since there's less commercial planes available for them to shoot down. Tourism to Iran is going to take a dive and the economy will take a hit. North Korea better keep quiet about it's virus problems otherwise they will lose tourists too.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/irans-vice-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB10u33i?ocid=spartanntp

[tfcrew]

Why Diet Coke may be in shorter supply due to the spread of coronavirus               Feb 27 2020 Alyssa Newcomb

This week, The Coca-Cola Co. announced that it is experiencing both production and export issues of Diet Coke and other low-calorie drinks from China, which been ground zero for the outbreak.
On Monday, Coca-Cola warned investors that its supply chain for an artificial sweetener and "certain other ingredients" sourced in China had been disrupted as a result of the outbreak, which has now killed more than 2,000 people around the world.

http://www.aol.com/article/finance/2020/02/27/why-diet-coke-may-be-in-shorter-supply-due-to-the-spread-of-coronavirus/23935688/

So it's back to regular Coke?

[krimster2]

R0 is pronounced “R naught.” It’s a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It’s also referred to as the reproduction number. As an infection spreads to new people, it reproduces itself.

R0 tells you the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person. It specifically applies to a population of people who were previously free of infection and haven’t been vaccinated. If a disease has an R0 of 3, a person who has the disease will transmit it to an average of 3 other people, as long as no one has been vaccinated against it or is already immune to it in their community.

The R0 for novel influenza A (H1N1) has been estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6.
for the current strains of covid-19 it’s estimated to be about 2.28!!!

the problem with this number is we don’t currently know the reinfection rate, since normally people who survived a virus infection would be immune from reinfection, but NOT with this virus...
but reinfection has been verified in as soon as a month after the first initial infection
this implies a HUGE mutation rate for this virus!
this makes it more likely to turn REALLY deadly sometime in the future!

overall, the virus as it currently is, will if it catches fire here
end up infecting more people than the flu, and will kill FAR MANY more
if this catches fire here, then within 10 years I’d expect to see 200,000 deaths each and every year in the USA from the current version of the virus
AND there is a strong possibility multiple versions of the virus will recombine in the host, creating a much more lethal virus

besides the death toll, which will primarily be on older people, but not exclusively
there will be HUGE social changes
air travel as we currently enjoy, will come to an end

there will be a huge global economic depression
followed by wars and famine

and if you look at what else virology related is happening in china,
the influenza rate has climbed 50% in the last 5 years
at the same time as SARS and covid-19

two different strains of other kinds of virus in this category have been known to recombine when they both infect a host at the same time creating a hyper-virulent strain
this is what the “Spanish Flu” was which killed 500,000 Americans in less than 6 months
in 1918-1919 by a poultry influenza strain that recombined with a human strain

sweet dreams everyone!

[IvanM07]

Trump is probably going to force private companies that manufacture masks to focus on manufacturing 300 million masks to combat the virus. Goal is to get a mask for every American and change slogan for 2020 election campaign to Make America Virus Free Again.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/exclusive-us-mulls-using-sweeping-powers-to-ramp-up-production-of-coronavirus-protective-gear/ar-BB10u5ge?ocid=spartanntp

I like the mask below. $9 and it fits snuggly over the face. I see a lot of Chinese not wearing their fabric masks properly. That aluminum strip needs to be form fitted over the nose otherwise air can get around the mask. Also needed is eye protection since the virus can get in the eyes and infect.

http://fadtype.com/DANIU-6200-N95-Double-Gas-Mask-Protection-Filter-Chemical-Half-Face-Respirator-Mask-1175732

I did a lot of airbrushing and painting metal especially when I had my '72 Nova so I still have a 3M 7500 half mask In the garage. I think Even a few unused filters. Wonder if they last for more than 5 years if I end up needing to use it

South Korea is currently experiencing a virus explosion with over 2000 infected now but Canadian researchers estimate Iran has over 18,000 infected and are underreporting since they claim only 245 of their citizens are infected. Iran's deputy Health Minister said quarantines were a “Stone Age” way to address the problem, and Iran doesn’t need them. Later that evening he tested positive for the virus and then used a Stone Age solution quarantining himself for a modern day problem.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-t-hide-coronavirus-explosion-102629171.html

Iran's Vice President has tested positive for the virus. Like China, Iran is probably underreporting and nations neighboring Iran are shutting down borders. Russia is restricting all flights from Iran. There is good news coming out of Iran since there's less commercial planes available for them to shoot down. Tourism to Iran is going to take a dive and the economy will take a hit. North Korea better keep quiet about it's virus problems otherwise they will lose tourists too.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/irans-vice-president-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/ar-BB10u33i?ocid=spartanntp

Did you watch the video with that Deputy Health Minister wiping his face constantly? Seemed like something you'd see from a Plague or Zombie movie, then later that day announces he has it too.

[tfcrew]

Pope Francis coughing a day after expressing 'closeness' to coronavirus victims  by Nicholas Rowan    | February 27, 2020 11:32 AM

Pope Francis was seen coughing a day after expressing his "closeness" to coronavirus victims in Italy.
"I wish, again, to express my closeness to those who are ill with coronavirus and to healthcare workers who are caring for them," Francis said during a general audience in St. Peter's Square before Ash Wednesday mass. The comment was prompted by the presence of several people in the audience wearing protective masks, according to Rome Reports.
The Vatican reported that Francis developed a "slight indisposition" on Thursday and that he canceled a planned mass at St. John Lateran Basilica. The nature of the pope's illness was not specified.
Although Italy has become center for coronavirus outbreaks in Europe, with more than 440 cases reported, Rome has been largely free of illness. Only three cases have been reported in Rome, and all have recovered, according to the New York Post. Globally, over 80,000 cases have been reported.
Francis forewent the precautions that many other Catholic churches took in celebrating Ash Wednesday. As he rode through the square, the pope kissed the forehead of a child and shook the hands of many people gathered in the audience, a departure from his usual wave.
Meanwhile, in Venice, Ash Wednesday mass at St. Mark's Basilica was canceled after several people in the city tested positive for the virus. 

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/pope-francis-coughing-a-day-after-expressing-closeness-to-coronavirus-victims

[BillyB]

Did you watch the video with that Deputy Health Minister wiping his face constantly? Seemed like something you'd see from a Plague or Zombie movie, then later that day announces he has it too.

Just watched it. Guy acting strange, sweating constantly, wiping his nose and sweat off the face while telling everybody there's nothing to fear, they have it under control and denied Tehran is hiding how bad the virus spread. Thing is he probably infected half the people in the room, especially the guy next to him who may be the Health Minister. Time to apply Stone Age solutions quarantining everybody in that room for 30 days. On the bright side, Iranians are used to having their movements restricted so no major inconvenience to them and the government has a valid reason to lock people up which will reduce protesting.

Japan is closing all schools till late March. If they don't get the virus under control, they may close everything for a longer period of time.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/japan-to-close-schools-nationwide-to-control-spread-of-virus/ar-BB10sOUw?ocid=spartanntp

I'm going to start buying some masks and foods with a long shelf life before the lines get long and the stores get empty. If America gets an outbreak like some of those countries, people going to panic. This virus is going to impact a lot of lives around the world. Even if many don't get the virus, they may be out of a job if business close and their whole city gets locked down. More information a person gets the better. This thread should be moved to odds and ends where lurkers can read it. Being in Anything goes, only the few member who signed in can read it.

[fathertime]

I am worried about this as I have gall bladder surgery scheduled for 10th of March.

But if the virus starts to be treated in my local hospital before that . . . .

Gall bladder pain has been fairly  constant for past several days, but only around 2-3.

Was thinking about going to emergency room right now and tell them the pain is 9-10.

tough spot you may be in.     i just got opened up and feel real bad and unabl to do much but hopeufully will get better stronger before and if this virus starts to go 'viral'.  personally if i were you i'd rathr get it behind me sooner rather than in 2 weeks.   my hope is billyb's analsysis is flawed but i'm open to it being possible and i think we are one outbreak away from empty shelves and major disruptions.  if you are infirm during a crisis it would be doubley disturbing...  yeah maybe fill up your kitchen and extra tanks of gasoline, doubt you would need it but why not?   gall bladder does help with immune system if i remmber right so that aint' good eitehr.   good luck

[msmob]

I used numbers from some nations who have some of the worst survival rates. As I type this John Hopkins reports 36,063 people in the world finished a battle with the virus. 33,253 made a full recovery. 2810 died. I suspect a lot more dead since China underreports and some countries like N Korea isn't reporting at all but for arguments sake, lets say the numbers are true. That means 7.8 % of the people are dying from this virus. Mortality rate is extremely high. If everybody in this world got this virus once, 600 million people will die. But that is not the scary thing we need to worry about.....

Our bodies already experiences coronaviruses that cause the common cold. There is no cure/vaccine for the common cold viruses. There probably won't be a cure/vaccine ever discovered for 2019 - nCoV. We may have to live with this virus forever and if it maintains a 7.8% rate of death for those infected and we catch this virus ten times in our lives, there's a good chance most of us will die from it eventually. This virus must be eradicated from the human body and if it did come from an animal, those animals must be liquidated. If humanity fails to control this virus and we have to live with it everyday like we do the common cold viruses, our life expectancy will be significantly reduced. this deadly virus will also modify our behavior on many levels.

Governments don't want to send the public into a panic but billions are being designated to find a cure. Every lab capable of inventing a cure is at work. If any nation fails to control the virus, they will spend even more quarantining people, closing schools, other places of public gatherings, and closing even their economy in an effort to beat the virus just as China is doing now.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/256521#definition

BillyB

Have you self-isolated yourself -locked yourself away from physical contact with humanity based on your Armageddon wacko theories ?

In the meantime ..

 1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus - if you knew you HAD the virus - they might prevent one spreading it .. if you changed the mask as soon as it was damp

2/ COVID-19 is a constantly mutating virus and those speaking of vaccines are talking out of their ..it's already been seen how one infected person, who infects another has a different strain


Your posts are akin to construction worker being put in charge of a micro-biology institute and making 'policy' ..


3/ How will any nation 'control' the virus ..? 

[BillyB]

 1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus -

Good thing you've been put in charge of nothing.

Masks can't stop a virus but masks stop airborne particles such as droplets from a sneeze the virus rides on. Maybe you believe people just sneeze out viruses all by themselves? A mask will stop most droplets if someone sneezes or coughs wearing one.

An N95 mask stops 95% of airborne particles if worn properly. Higher the number the better. Also, don't buy Chinese because they false advertise.

Moby, out of everybody on this forum, I predict you're the first one to get the coronavirus. While everybody is wearing masks, you'll be running around without a mask telling people masks are useless and the virus isn't anymore dangerous than the flu virus. People out there will look at you like this forum looks at you.

[IvanM07]

BillyB

Have you self-isolated yourself -locked yourself away from physical contact with humanity based on your Armageddon wacko theories ?

In the meantime ..

 1/ most masks are STILL useless in preventing catching the virus - if you knew you HAD the virus - they might prevent one spreading it .. if you changed the mask as soon as it was damp

2/ COVID-19 is a constantly mutating virus and those speaking of vaccines are talking out of their ..it's already been seen how one infected person, who infects another has a different strain


Your posts are akin to construction worker being put in charge of a micro-biology institute and making 'policy' ..


3/ How will any nation 'control' the virus ..?

This is glorious! The guy most proved wrong in his own domestic politics, Foreign politics, earlier in this very thread for  the virus being gone in a week, add in a failure of a plan going to Georgia without backup cash. I mean we could keep going but I dont think I have to  .

God bud, you are a riot. Even statistically by this point you should have landed on something right. The old saying a clock is right twice a day doesn't apply here.  XD

But please don't take this laugh at your expense to mean you shouldn't  stop posting. On the contrary post more, please.

[GQBlues]

CDC, hmmm..

In the case of the lone positive case of Covid-19 in California...

http://www.ucdavis.edu/news/coronavirus-patient-and-precautions-uc-davis-medical-center

...oh, and I'd like to add: "...low risk..." is still a *risk* just as 'almost dead is still alive'.

Sure enough, and just like that, it went from a lone positive case in California to 33 confirmed cases in just one day with active monitoring of 8,000 more. So the silly CDC hurried to change their silly criteria on testing protocol.

[fathertime]

Sure enough, and just like that, it went from a lone positive case in California to 33 confirmed cases in just one day with active monitoring of 8,000 more. So the silly CDC hurried to change their silly criteria on testing protocol.

seems like big news and that is somewhat buried...or what?

[krimster2]

the masks are to show the public that you're trying not to be a virus spreader...
back when we had the bird flu in Crimea
if you rode a marshrutka and someone had a bad cough or sneeze and DIDN'T have a mask on
EVERYONE else got pissed at them and would verbally harass and abuse them!!!
ohhh the Russian curses I heard, the mattest mat EVER!!!!
it was brilliant language, I could actually see the TRUE Russian soul!
which is kinda scary to me!

because at the bottom of the Russian soul is all about how each person deals with their PTSD!
eta moy pravda

[tfcrew]

Good thing you've been put in charge of nothing.

                                                             

Masks can't stop a virus but masks stop airborne particles such as droplets from a sneeze the virus rides on. Maybe you believe people just sneeze out viruses all by themselves? A mask will stop most droplets if someone sneezes or coughs wearing one.

Back in July 2018 I bought a pk of 50 surgical masks for 9.99 on ebay.
We used them for dust masks when we mowed the yard.
We used up only 3 or 4. Go price them now [if you can find them]

[GQBlues]

seems like big news and that is somewhat buried...or what?

I'm sure it's to tone down the public and not create undue over-reaction, or worst, panic. The sick lady had apparently turned for the worst today. They are still trying to determine exactly how she got the virus since she didn't meet CDC's test criteria as a likely patient with COVID-19, so they decided not to test her for it. She went on as though she had the common flu and was not immediately quarantined.

Even to this moment, they keep saying and using the term *low risk*. It went from one infected to 33 to 8,000+ under observation overnight - yet it's low risk to the community at large. The city of San Francisco declared a state of emergency yesterday....so....

Go figure.

[BillyB]

I understand the government's reasoning for not creating panic. They don't want people emptying shelves and running each other over to get the last few remaining items. Best to buy a few things now just in case the virus gets out of control in one's city. I don't trust China and a few nations reporting on infections and deaths. This virus is highly contagious and it's killing more people than they let on. The mortality rate on flu and the common cold viruses are acceptable. The mortality rate on this virus is not. It must be defeated and to do so will disrupt many people's lives. If a city is quarantined, businesses will close, people will be unemployed and group gatherings and education will come to a halt.

I will be prepared but I don't expect this to get out of control in my city although we have a large Chinese population here. As long as idiots to not take vacations overseas, especially to China, America should be fine as we wait for other nations to get their epidemics under control and defeat the virus. Could take years though.

[krimster2]

it's kinda interesting to see individual stories of how people are coping in Wuhan...
it seems the strategy I worked out is a pretty common one there
you have one person be responsible for access to the outside world
and this person minimizes contact by isolation from the rest of his family
but is able to provide supplies to them...

an extension of this would be if you got a group of individual families
who cooperated, and one member from each family had this position each month
then the odds of an individual getting the virus would be 1/12 (even better if your neighbors get the peak months and not you)
survival math

[msmob]

The Moby crowd start writing articles.

You mean people that actually travel abroad and have seen this ignorance with their own eyes, Beel ?

I 'fear' folks who've been in N.Italy more than China





 

[Gator]

.... so they decided not to test her for it. She went on as though she had the common flu and was not immediately quarantined.

From the info I have, it seems health agencies were rationing the specific COVID-19 tests to those known to have come in contact with China travelers or known infected patients.   

Explanations for rationing:

            -  Test kits were in limited supply because most kits that had been shipped earlier had expired reagents.
            -  CDC limited the number of laboratories authorized to conduct the tests.

These screw-ups should not happen.   More will be forthcoming on this issue.   

[GQBlues]

From the info I have, it seems health agencies were rationing the specific COVID-19 tests to those known to have come in contact with China travelers or known infected patients.   

Explanations for rationing:

            -  Test kits were in limited supply because most kits that had been shipped earlier had expired reagents.
            -  CDC limited the number of laboratories authorized to conduct the tests.

These screw-ups should not happen.   More will be forthcoming on this issue.

In this particular case, CDC decided NOT to test the woman because she didn't meet CDC's qualifying criteria for testing. Which were, she didn't have a history of travel or didn't have contact with anyone who was infected. Consequently, she was tested 4 days later and the result came out positive for Covid-19. She exposed folks for 4 additional days as a result.

  http://khn.org/news/new-california-coronavirus-case-reveals-problems-with-testing-protocols/

Other non-mainstream media reported that CDC broke away from global ranks in their attempt to establish a more comprehensive, complicated test that would identify a more varied range of similar viruses. The result turned out to be flawed, and consequently lost valuable time.*

http://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

*Whether or not this is true, I do not know. There's so much red tape with these things that it's almost impossible to find where the truth lies, sadly enough.

[IvanM07]

Currently there is some concern that the virus could be polyphasic. Meaning you get the virus, get well, virus lies dormant, layer you get it again. Similar to Anthrax. Japan just had it's second case.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/02/28/world/asia/28reuters-china-health-reinfection-explainer.html

There's also a troubling video showing an American who got the virus on the cruise ship, 2 weeks later was cleared, then on Fox is seen coughing quite a bit, somewhat sweaty sharing a water bottle with his daughter.



None of this has been confirmed of course but it is speculation for now.