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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 304706 times)

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Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #225 on: March 06, 2020, 08:14:13 AM »
I say again, anyone calculating  a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is pushing the existing data too far.  Not only are the data limited if not suspect, the data are not comparable (apples and oranges) from nation to nation.   For example, Iran's initially reported 2 cases and 2 deaths - that's a 100% CFR.   

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #226 on: March 06, 2020, 08:57:24 AM »
I say again, anyone calculating  a CFR (Case Fatality Rate) is pushing the existing data too far.  Not only are the data limited if not suspect, the data are not comparable (apples and oranges) from nation to nation.   For example, Iran's initially reported 2 cases and 2 deaths - that's a 100% CFR.   

It's why I talk about nations that have thousands of cases. I trust Italy's and South Korea's reporting and so far in their nations, for every 3 people who recover, one person has died. That's a 25% death rate and that is very alarming. WHO is careful not to create panic but they can see what is going on in developed countries such as South Korea and Italy now that their pool of people is bigger and understand mortality rates are a lot worse than China's, which was the go to nation to gauge since they had the first big pool of infected. WHO has now told all nations to put out ALL stops against this virus and said "This is not a drill". Governments need people to function normally to prosper so they tell us things so we don't panic but this virus is different. I've been on this forum for years and people can search for my past posts and see I didn't post anything on SARS, MERS, and the various swine and bird flus that the world had to experience over the last few decades. This virus is different and I agree with WHO that governments need to everything they can to stop it. The death rate is too high for humanity to live with and because it's related to the cold virus, a cure may never be found.

I read the WHO link below and they never said the death/mortality rate is 3.4%. They said "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died." WHO didn't say that was current mortality rate but the media wrongly translated it to be that. Reported cases can't be included in the mortality rate until we learn if the infected will live or die after their battle with the virus. The death rate is higher. Many cases of those who died from the virus got recorded as dying from pneumonia and influenza. More deaths will happen without those bodies being properly tested and thus properly recorded since the test kits are reserved for those who are alive.

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Edited to add South Korea is investing $25 billion dollars to fight the virus which is big money in a country of 51 million. They are investing almost $500 per person to fight the virus. The S Korean Prez Moon calls the situation "grave".

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3064709/coronavirus-south-koreas-cases-hit-4812-28-deaths-moon-jae
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 09:04:26 AM by BillyB »
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Online krimster2

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #227 on: March 06, 2020, 11:33:42 AM »
it appears there are two strains, the newer one much more virulent than the earlier one
so the lethality is increasing over time
virologists expected this to happen
because these types of virus can recombine in the host and create a novel virus
that out competes the other two and spreads more
and when more and more people are infected then the new more lethal strains will come even faster

if I could "short" the human species right now, in a couple of years, I'd have quite a bundle



Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #228 on: March 06, 2020, 11:35:37 AM »
At this very early stages of any pandemic, any report that tries to establish a kill rate ratio (averaging method) will always be flawed, BillyB. There were 3 infected people in California reported recently, and yesterday apparently one of them died. A 33% kill ratio? I think not on the basis that we have absolutely no basis of information exactly how many was actually infected when the 'first' lone case became known.

100 cases may already be established but were undiagnosed, which then would make that lone casualty credit COVID-19 with a mere 1% kill rate. The flu, according to CDC's estimates, have killed (HE) 52,000 people from 10/19 - 2/20 against an estimated people that were sick of the flu during the period at 49,000,000. This would credit the flu with a 1/10th kill rate ratio.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Bottom line is, establishing death rates right now is useless. It's nothing more than an invisible boogeyman in a darkened room.

The unfortunate known pattern we have so far is that COVID-19, while no one is immune to it at this time, has consistently shown to only be fatal to the elderly with medical condition. Obviously, people with very low immunity level.

So far.
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2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #229 on: March 06, 2020, 11:57:24 AM »
At this very early stages of any pandemic, any report that tries to establish a kill rate ratio (averaging method) will always be flawed, BillyB. There were 3 infected people in California reported recently, and yesterday apparently one of them died. A 33% kill ratio?


Because of the large sampling pool of people, it's why I talk about South Korea and Italy's numbers, not California's. Even Iran now has a large sample pool of people and a horrible death rate but it's not going to be as reliable as South Korea's and Italy's. Statistics are important. As more reliable nations report accurate information, the situation becomes clear and it's much more grim than what China has shown it to be. With more reliable reports coming in, facts can be formulated and there's enough information now to the point WHO is asking every nation to throw everything they have to fight the virus. This is not a drill.

Back in January I factored the under reporting of China and death rate from the small sample, learned the characteristics of this virus, and learned a vaccine/cure many never happen, I sounded the alarm back then. This virus is really bad shit and could kill billions if Italy's and South Korea's death to recovery ratio holds. Numbers may go down a little since the best doctors and respirators to assist breathing are helping currently infected people beat the virus but if it gets out of control and everybody got the virus, there's not enough best doctors and respiratory equipment to go around so the death rate will skyrocket if humanity can't control the virus. This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.

Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #230 on: March 06, 2020, 01:00:07 PM »
This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.

Only one of us is already posting daft and doesn't realise it ..

WAY more people committed suicide, died at the hand of another human, died of a snake bite or mosquito bite ..



Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #231 on: March 06, 2020, 02:03:34 PM »
I last flew internationally on Sunday - with a lay-over in Istanbul

I was first on the plane and made my way to my window seat - and put my small carry-on bag in the overhead locker .. the flight was full and I KNEW folks were being asked to put stuff in the hold ..

I observed a member of the crew handing out forms to the passengers - after a while ..  this was the form

http://www.iata.org/contentassets/07a397c1164d45e794c22949c75a95ac/public-health-passenger-locator-form.pdf

I asked for one and was promised one ..  I never got it


On leaving the plane - no one seemed to be collecting said forms ..

No one was collecting the forms ... at Transit , passport control, before boarding the next flight...? ((





« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 10:33:14 PM by msmob »

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #232 on: March 06, 2020, 02:38:20 PM »
...Back in January I factored the under reporting of China and death rate from the small sample, learned the characteristics of this virus, and learned a vaccine/cure many never happen, I sounded the alarm back then. This virus is really bad shit and could kill billions if Italy's and South Korea's death to recovery ratio holds. Numbers may go down a little since the best doctors and respirators to assist breathing are helping currently infected people beat the virus but if it gets out of control and everybody got the virus, there's not enough best doctors and respiratory equipment to go around so the death rate will skyrocket if humanity can't control the virus. This can become a worldwide plague that will make the history books unless we stop it soon.


China may have (intentionally? - for what though, I don't know) under reported the # of cases, but I need to ask, if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #233 on: March 06, 2020, 03:29:20 PM »

... if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?

BINGO!   China was obviously in the dark in the first days of this disease outbreak.  To illustrate the following is the first account the UN WHO reported about the disease. 

Quote
     
Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office
 

31 December 2019

At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China. According to the authorities, some patients were operating dealers or vendors in the Huanan Seafood market.

Staying in close contact with national authorities, WHO began monitoring the situation and requested further information on the laboratory tests performed and the different diagnoses considered.   


Everything moved quickly after that obscure report. 

China reported the genetic sequence of the COVID-19 strain in mid-January.  Only with such data could a reliable laboratory test be developed. 

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #234 on: March 06, 2020, 04:14:50 PM »
I need to ask, if this is a new viral strain, how could China determine how to test it, much less how to differentiate a person sick of the common flu from those on coronavirus?


It's actually easy to test. If doctors don't recognize it being a cold, flu or any type of virus they've ever seen, it's the new guy on the block. Did you read the translated Chinese article on the other thread I provided? Sept 18, 2019 article reported a man in Wuhan was discovered to have a corona virus that was never seen before. When a new bacteria, virus, animal, plant or whatever is discovered, it's supposed to be big news unless it's suppressed. Also other articles I provided said the virus showed up December 8 which is why doctors sounded the alarm before China notified WHO.

When a person gets sick, the doctor may take blood or swab their mouths to get samples what's in there. The sample gets sent to the lab to determine if a person's illness is viral or bacterial related. If it's a viral infection, it is determined what kind of virus so the doctor can prescribe the proper anti viral medicine. If the lab technicians don't recognize the virus, it's obviously the new guy on the block and common sense says to sound the alarm to the government and medical community which some whistleblower doctors did.

The Chinese government didn't allow the local government of Wuhan to report the virus. Zhou, mayor of Wuhan apologized for the delay which he blamed on government policy. Comment below is in link below. Also some at the potluck got the virus.

Zhou later took responsibility for the delay in reporting the scale of the epidemic, but said he was hampered by the national law on infectious diseases.
That law allows provincial governments to declare an epidemic only after receiving central government approval.
"After I receive information, I can only release it when I'm authorised," he said.


http://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/02/06/wuhan-neighbourhood-sees-infections-after-40000-families-gather-for-potluck

Everything moved quickly after that obscure report. 


The Chinese reporting the new virus on the block didn't get things moving quickly. Mayor of Wuhan said the announcement was delayed. China then and still today blocked international experts from coming to Wuhan to investigate and help stop the spread before it got outside China. China continued till near the end of January with business as usual encouraging people to congregate to celebrate the new year.

A couple of days ago WHO put out a statement saying this virus is deadlier than previously thought. I already knew that. In that statement they also said "This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics." and "at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19" and "we must do everything we can to contain it."

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020

Today WHO says it's false hope to think this virus will disappear in the summer like the flu. As infections disease experts learn more about this virus, be prepared for more bad news. Experts, not the Moby kind, have already talked about it and it's clear it's going to get real bad if we don't stop it. Governments don't want to scare people and cause panic. If everybody stops working and functioning, that's a bad scenario so it's best to get people to believe it's okay to keep working and living while sacrificing a few. So they put out articles this virus isn't so bad. Problem is to contain this virus, quarantining people will be a big part of it. If we do not stop the virus, periodic quarantine will be a part of our lives when an outbreak happens. There's an increasing chance somebody on this forum will experience life the way the citizens of Wuhan does.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says/ar-BB10QrLc?ocid=spartanntp
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Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #235 on: March 06, 2020, 04:38:26 PM »
It's actually easy to test. If doctors don't recognize it being a cold, flu or any type of virus they've ever seen, it's the new guy on the block. Did you read the translated Chinese article on the other thread I provided? Sept 18, 2019 article reported a man in Wuhan was discovered to have a corona virus that was never seen before. When a new bacteria, virus, animal, plant or whatever is discovered, it's supposed to be big news unless it's suppressed. Also other articles I provided said the virus showed up December 8 which is why doctors sounded the alarm before China notified WHO....

Admittedly, no, I didn't read the article you referred to. But again, what would be the point of concealing a 'new' virus from the scientific community? Pride? If politics, what would be the point?

Forget the Chinese, judge our own for a minute (CDC). Despite already being alarmed by what allegedly China had done, and the fact we are supposed to be a more clinically advanced than China, we still couldn't move fast enough, or properly enough, to put out test kits on time and/or what it is that needed to be done to determine every facets of what needed to be studied. Heck, look at the test criteria CDC gave before a test can be conducted? Again, this is way after the madness in China kicked in.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #236 on: March 06, 2020, 05:37:56 PM »
But again, what would be the point of concealing a 'new' virus from the scientific community? Pride? If politics, what would be the point?


My guess is China wanted to protect it's economy and pride. They've already had the lion's share of outbreaks around the world with SARS, and multiple swine and bird flu epidemics. Communist governments try to give the impression they're the best kind of government around and nothing bad happens under their watch. Iran doesn't have much economy so them not disclosing the truth is more about pride. Bad things aren't supposed to happen to them. I remember the Prez of Iran coming to America and gave a speech at a college saying they don't have the problem of homosexuals in Iran.

If China didn't drop the ball and allowed infectious disease experts from around the world to pinpoint the source, start working on vaccines and containment plans, learning about this virus, educate the public earlier, more people's lives would be saved and economies wouldn't take as big of a hit.

Cold and flu viruses are so widespread that they can't be stopped so we live with them side by side forever. Cold viruses are harmless but our immunity attacks them anyway so we try to sneeze and cough them out and there's to cure for the cold virus. All we have is medicine to relieve our symptoms as our immune system does all the work to get rid of cold viruses. Flus are more dangerous but we can create vaccines and other anti viral medicine to defeat the flu virus.  This new virus is related to the cold virus except is very dangerous. The more it spreads, the harder it is to get rid up and we may come to the point of defeat and begin to realize we'll have to live with it forever and like colds we can get them multiple times in our lives. Living with it forever will alter our lives and behavior. Getting quarantined to control periodic regional outbreaks may become a way of life.

CDC says adults get 2-3 colds a year average and children can get up to 12 colds a year. I don't remember having that much colds per year but some may have not been so noticeable although I acquired a cold virus. Some people's first infection from this new corona virus is not very noticeable. Next infection may be very noticeable and kill them.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/166606

Forget the Chinese, judge our own for a minute (CDC). Despite already being alarmed by what allegedly China had done, and the fact we are supposed to be a more clinically advanced than China, we still couldn't move fast enough, or properly enough, to put out test kits on time and/or what it is that needed to be done to determine every facets of what needed to be studied. Heck, look at the test criteria CDC gave before a test can be conducted? Again, this is way after the madness in China kicked in.

The CDC started to ship test kits over a month ago. Back then, there were no outbreaks in America but the CDC was getting prepared for one. The problem was a regent in the test kits that made them faulty so it was wasted time and money. Back to the drawing board. I don't blame government on that. Government hired pharmaceutical companies, doctors and scientists to create the products the American public needs. They are human and mistakes happen.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/united-states-badly-bungled-coronavirus-testing-things-may-soon-improve

As I typed this post, I got a call with a recorded message from the VA Hospital in Seattle to tell me what part of the hospital to go for the virus testing. I do have an appointment there next week for a checkup. I'll report back what the medical staff is wearing.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #237 on: March 06, 2020, 08:08:54 PM »
China was obviously in the dark in the first days of this disease outbreak.  To illustrate the following is the first account the UN WHO reported about the disease. 

Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office
 
31 December 2019

At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China.


Everything moved quickly after that obscure report. 


Gator here's another reason China wasn't in the dark. Taiwan has a low infection count at this moment and it's because they took action in December based off Chinese people talking about it informally before China announced it to the world. Taiwan didn't know much about the virus except it was killing lots of Chinese in December. Virus doesn't even have to have a name. Just need to know it's dangerous and action needs to happen so Taiwan quarantined people on flights from Wuhan in December to check if they're sick. My mom who reads Vietnamese news read about this bad boy virus last year but didn't tell me because she thought I would laugh it off as tabloid news.

http://www.voanews.com/science-health/coronavirus-outbreak/why-taiwan-has-just-42-coronavirus-cases-while-neighbors-report
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #238 on: March 07, 2020, 05:11:52 AM »
Florida cases:

Confirmed cases of infection: 12

           6 FL residents (2 of whom died)
           5 FL residents now in quarantine outside FL
           1 Non-FL resident

Cases Awaiting Test Results:  88

Being monitored:  278 (had contact with confirmed case)


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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #239 on: March 07, 2020, 10:34:06 AM »
I've searched, although not intensely, as to how those in the cruise ship in California got infected. Does anyone know? IINM, the one in Florida apparently involved folks coming back from their vacation in Italy.

3 tested positive in UCLA campus yesterday, but the news didn't state exactly how they got the infection either.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #240 on: March 07, 2020, 10:48:09 AM »
The CDC started to ship test kits over a month ago. Back then, there were no outbreaks in America but the CDC was getting prepared for one. The problem was a regent in the test kits that made them faulty so it was wasted time and money. Back to the drawing board. I don't blame government on that. Government hired pharmaceutical companies, doctors and scientists to create the products the American public needs. They are human and mistakes happen.

That's not exactly what was reported, BillyB. We (CDC) decided to extricate itself from the global partnership and conduct their own testing method. Instead of partnering and sharing results and information, IIRC, CDC wanted to not only create a test kits to isolate COVID-19, but create a kit to also identify a wider range of viral pathogens.

Quote
As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.

The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.

http://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

This seem to fly in the face of what you seem to be saying about China's slow reaction to the infection.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #241 on: March 07, 2020, 11:10:09 AM »
That's not exactly what was reported, BillyB. We (CDC) decided to extricate itself from the global partnership and conduct their own testing method. Instead of partnering and sharing results and information, IIRC, CDC wanted to not only create a test kits to isolate COVID-19, but create a kit to also identify a wider range of viral pathogens.

http://www.propublica.org/article/cdc-coronavirus-covid-19-test

This seem to fly in the face of what you seem to be saying about China's slow reaction to the infection.

Global partnership? How many countries decided to WHO's guidelines instead of their own? I put a link up earlier that showed the first CDC's test kits had a faulty regent. It's a manufacturing defect which was corrected. Problem didn't have nothing to do with not following guidelines. The CDC doesn't need to follow the WHO's guidelines to make a properly working kit which we already have now.

Didn't see anywhere in the article that compliments China for a fast reaction to the infection. Taiwan reacted to the virus before China announced the newly discovered virus to the world. That's fast.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #242 on: March 07, 2020, 11:18:34 AM »
Global partnership? How many countries decided to WHO's guidelines instead of their own? I put a link up earlier that showed the first CDC's test kits had a faulty regent. It's a manufacturing defect which was corrected. Problem didn't have nothing to do with not following guidelines. The CDC doesn't need to follow the WHO's guidelines to make a properly working kit which we already have now.

It's *reagent*. WHO is the scientific/medical global partnership. If you don't like this description, you can call it any other name you'd like. I, nor anyone in the article cited, mentioned anything about not following guidelines. What it reported was, CDC decided to conduct testing methodology on it's own instead of partnering with the WHO, global community, or whatever you want to name it.

As a consequence, it failed. The CDC applied methodology FAILED. Set them back weeks...whether you'd like to believe the report or not is entirely up to you.

Quote
Didn't see anywhere in the article that compliments China for a fast reaction to the infection. Taiwan reacted to the virus before China announced the newly discovered virus to the world. That's fast.

The article nor I didn't say it either, so not sure where you inferred someone was complimenting China.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 12:17:55 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #243 on: March 07, 2020, 12:38:16 PM »
It's *reagent*. WHO is the scientific/medical global partnership. If you don't like this description, you can call it any other name you'd like. I, nor anyone in the article cited, mentioned anything about not following guidelines. What it reported was, CDC decided to conduct testing methodology on it's own instead of partnering with the WHO, global community, or whatever you want to name it.

As a consequence, it failed. The CDC applied methodology FAILED. Set them back weeks...whether you'd like to believe the report or not is entirely up to you.


Your article said "The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples."

So basically the test flagged the presence of other viruses in  harmless samples. The manufacture of the American test kits corrected the problem and made test kits that work.  International organizations guidelines are usually designed easy enough for all countries to follow. Doesn't mean it's the best guideline possible. It's just a guideline that even under developed countries can follow. If I needed a test and they ask me if I wanted the CDC designed test or a Nigerian test kit that followed WHO's guidelines, I choose the CDC test every time because usually they are going to want to build a better more sophisticated test that may identify more viruses than just COVID=19
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #244 on: March 07, 2020, 04:13:42 PM »
I've searched, although not intensely, as to how those in the cruise ship in California got infected. Does anyone know?

No,  but seems weird that of the 21 infected, 19 were crew members.  The crews on these ships can be huge, numbering over 1,000. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #245 on: March 07, 2020, 04:22:37 PM »
No,  but seems weird that of the 21 infected, 19 were crew members.  The crews on these ships can be huge, numbering over 1,000.


Since the majority of infected are crew members, it could mean the infected passengers that infected them were on the previous cruise and those passengers are already back home all over America.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #246 on: March 07, 2020, 05:35:06 PM »
Since the majority of infected are crew members, it could mean the infected passengers that infected them were on the previous cruise and those passengers  are already back home all over America.

Possibly, yet for sure under surveillance by health organizations.

Billy, you are beginning to sound like Krimster. 

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #247 on: March 07, 2020, 06:02:21 PM »
what?
no way, I NEVER ever thought about having sex in a cemetery late at night like yon William has, are you kiddin me?
mannnnn....
you pull your willy out late at night in a cemetery, and FOR SURE, something VERY BAD will happen to it....
that's just "common sense"



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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #248 on: March 07, 2020, 06:20:31 PM »
It is somewhat amusing to watch the hysteria developing over the Corona Virus.  There seems to be a lack of critical thinking and common sense that that the public is participating in.  People are being whipped into a frenzy fueled by the media.

Lets apply some perspective to the situation....

This is not the Black Plague!  Most deaths are occurring in elderly folks with underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems.  Most of those infected outside 3rd world countries have symptoms of the common flu viruses and get over it naturally.

Although not reported by mainstream media, it would be helpful to see a chart with the number of infections and deaths from the common flu vs. the Corona Virus.  It would be even more helpful to see it broken down by age groups and those with and without underlying health problems.  That would allow us to put some perspective on the seriousness and risk factors for this strain of the flu.

Just like the common flu season we experience every year, there are some common sense actions we can all take to minimize the risks of catching this flu strain or any other communicable virus or infection.

Stay away from large gatherings of people.  Don't go to the movies, concerts or other gatherings of a lot of people outside your normal social circle.  While it does not guarantee that you won't come into contact with someone that is carrying a virus, it reduces the risk considerably.  I also would not use public transportation unless there is no other option.

If there is an outbreak in my area, I might go further to isolate our family to further reduce the risks but I sure as hell and not going to go out and start buying up face masks and toilet paper at the present time.  We often cannot avoid the risks of contacting someone at work or our children at school that might be infectious, but until there is a risk identified in those places, we should not panic and become irrational.
Doug (Calmissile)

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #249 on: March 07, 2020, 06:35:43 PM »
Billy, you are beginning to sound like Krimster.


Krimster predicting gloom and doom has a real chance on becoming reality this time. This virus is related to the cold virus. There is no vaccine for the cold virus so we live with the cold virus. This virus is much more deadlier than the flu. If we can't eradicate it from the human body and lose control, we will have to live with it and if there isn't a vaccine invented, containment is the only solution for control. That means quarantining regional populations during outbreaks is something we'll have to live with forever. Quarantined societies have a hard time to function and will need outside support. Our health care systems will be pushed to the limits. It will strain economies. Humanity will struggle. You mentioned in the other thread in the end, flus will kill more. That will be true only if we stop the new virus soon. If every person on earth got to experience this new virus once, we'd wish we had the flu instead.

History teaches a lesson. Trump's grandfather died in the first wave of three Spanish Flus to hit America. Out of 500 million worldwide to be infected, 50 million died. 10% mortality rate. Average lifespan for Americans dropped 12 years during this period. Based on early numbers coming in from trustworthy nations, this new corona virus is worse and there is no vaccine and may never be one. We have vaccines to prevent the Spanish flu from ever wrecking havoc on humanity again. Imagine there being no cure for the Spanish Flu and we had to deal with it still today on a yearly basis. Here's a 2018 article on Spanish Flu with old photos showing citizens wearing masks. That was life for those citizens during rough times. Masks may be a part of our lives too.

http://blogs.cdc.gov/publichealthmatters/2018/05/1918-flu/

Most deaths are occurring in elderly folks with underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems.  Most of those infected outside 3rd world countries have symptoms of the common flu viruses and get over it naturally.


It's easy for older people to die from any disease or injury over young people. The flu is more dangerous to older people than young people but overall .1% of people infected by the flu will die or in other words, 1 out of 1000 people will die and the majority will be older people or the very young with underdeveloped lungs. This new virus is much more dangerous than the flu across the board for all age groups. Of course older and very young will still be more likely to die than 20 yo people.

If this new virus wasn't so bad, you wouldn't see hundreds of millions of people under full or partial lockdown for the few months it's appeared on earth. With already more than 10% of the population on earth experiencing a quarantine, that should tell us something about how bad this virus really is even if the governments aren't telling us.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 06:37:40 PM by BillyB »
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

 

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