2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[tfcrew]

How big was the Spanish Flu news story in 1918-1919?   Killed 40-50 million around the globe.  No TV then, little  mitigation.The largest of them all - God Forbid - the Bubonic Plague (14thC).  Estimated to have killed 30 - 50% of Europe's population.

From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just the month of October. And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”—high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.

http://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

[BillyB]

As for the media, it's the biggest story in a long time.

Long time since a big story happened for them? The Impeachment of Donald Trump was big for the media. Although the impeachment trial finished just last month, the Donald was focused on the virus back in January restricting travel from China. Democrats were more focused on restricting Trump from being President.

How big was the Spanish Flu news story in 1918-1919?   Killed 40-50 million around the globe.  No TV then, little  mitigation.

The largest of them all - God Forbid - the Bubonic Plague (14thC).  Estimated to have killed 30 - 50% of Europe's population.   

For plagues caused by bacteria, we have antibiotics. For flus, we have vaccines. We don't have anything for coronaviruses. No vaccines and no treatments. During WWI and the Spanish Flu, the world didn't face a big recession because the war kept industries working to max potential. This coronavirus pandemic will be like the Spanish Flu and Great Depression combined if we don't beat it. We can't work during outbreaks. We can try to work but if we didn't take action against the virus, hundreds of millions of people in the world can die.

Some experts say Dr. Fauci is ridiculously optimistic with his 12-18 month estimate for a vaccine. They said they were sure Dr. Fauci knew that too. But Dr. Fauci is on the Trump bandwagon of giving people hope. The Swine Flu vaccine was created in a very fast 6 months. What is the average time for a vaccine for a coronavirus to be created? Don't know. All previous attempts to create a vaccine for a coronavirus failed.

http://www.cnn.com/2020/03/31/us/coronavirus-vaccine-timetable-concerns-experts-invs/index.html

[msmob]

But Dr. Fauci is on the Trump bandwagon of giving people hope.

WHAT a load of tripe..

Giving 'hope' wasn't about telling folks there'd be nothing to worry about ...

[Gator]

Giving 'hope' wasn't about telling folks there'd be nothing to worry about ...

You are still dwelling on politics?!?!   

For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work.  Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit. 

[GQBlues]

Now I realize the moderator protects this particular poster, but can't we at least have a thread without 'him' pestering every thread with his stupid political stupidity? It is an absurdity with the fact this idiot is NOT even a citizen, or a resident of the US, including not even being IN the country.

Why is this crap allowed to happen for this idiot? Everyone, please DO NOT FEED THE TROLL! Let him wallow in his own misery...alone. *Happy* people just don't do this sh!t.

[GQBlues]

It would be obvious for me to be interested in what's going on in my state. So I surf a lot of information not only for our county, but statewide. As of right now, I've been fairly disappointed in how our state fares regarding giving up-to-date information to its residents. Statewide - it is rated a 'B'. but that would actually be worse if not for certain counties' effort to spend the time and virtually serve its respective resident with great information.

The one I liked so far is Sonoma County. Close to wine country, and is just north of California's richest county, Marin. It's still an upscale area with Santa Rosa being its main city. The area is generally fairly pristine / quaint, if not outright an awesome place to live in. My wife loved this area.

Here's their Coronavirus reporting website: Sonoma County

One thing that I noted that seem interesting is the number of *uninsured* folks. Interesting because noting the household median income, @ $81K +, then looking at the number of people on the poverty level. Anyway, at least their reporting is pretty comprehensive.

[Gator]

As of right now, I've been fairly disappointed in how our state fares regarding giving up-to-date information to its residents. ....The one I liked so far is Sonoma County. Here's their Coronavirus reporting website: Sonoma County

Excellent site.  On a population basis, about the same "test results" with an even smaller percentage as reported for my county.  Hospitalization rate same  as my county.

[GQBlues]

The county area is fairly 'large' relative its population, which is a huge plus during this crisis.

For LA county, there's 534 new cases, making a total of 3,000+. Our county's hospitalization rate had doubled in the last 3 days. Of the 'positive cases, 20% are hospitalized (600+). Of this number, 25% of them are in ICU(150). La County reported 19 deaths in one day. The highest day toll so far. Death toll = 54. Numbers are increasing, but still relatively miniscule against total population, 10.2 million.

Adding to the angst, our statewide prison system policy had started 'releasing' alleged non-violent criminals to the street ahead of their sentences. Many are 'sex offenders'. How that is classified as 'non-violent' is beyond me. Though this isn't isolated in California alone. The likes of Cosby, Avenatti, Madoff. R. Kelly et al are requesting early releases to keep them from 'harm'. I'm surprised Harvey Weinstein hadn't followed suit.

Strange days we're all living in these days.

[msmob]

You are still dwelling on politics?!?!   

While 'we' on this side of the pond ( esp any poster in N. Italy ) have endured posts 'praising' our respective leaders 'inaction', you mean ...?

For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work.  Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit. 

IF this was some sort of 'please pointing out the huge mistakes of our respective leaders' .. it is falling on deaf ears, Gator ..


I've been pretty vocal about the UK govt BSing folk about heath and care workers being tested ... they have been (and still are) spending time in self-isolation as they do not know if they've had the virus .. needlessly

That's not 'political' ... it's poor management - given the time the UK had to order test kits ...'We'v'e' had drive in, drive through' test centres opened and closed ....lots of upbeat bollox that turned out to be meaningless ... 


This is not about 'optimism' .. I'm eternally optimistic ... it's about monumentally poor management





 

[msmob]

Now I realize the moderator protects this particular poster

I have been warned for simply responding to your repeating lies ..  is that 'protection' ?

but can't we at least have a thread without 'him' pestering every thread with his stupid political stupidity? It is an absurdity with the fact this idiot is NOT even a citizen, or a resident of the US, including not even being IN the country.

Are you for REAL ? ... Since when has thread had a 'sign' on it saying US citizens only ? Did you check the title ?   

Why is this crap allowed to happen for this idiot? Everyone, please DO NOT FEED THE TROLL! Let him wallow in his own misery...alone. *Happy* people just don't do this sh!t.

 

[fathertime]

For miserable old men like you, the "half-full glass" approach will not work.  Miserable old men die alone, in their own piss and shit. 

Interesting how often a few of the more miserable old men of the board either wish death upon someone or hint at it in graphic terms.  Willing to say this all over a political disagreement.  interesting, and telling

Fathertime! 

[msmob]

Interesting how often a few of the more miserable old men of the board either wish death upon someone or hint at it in graphic terms.  Willing to say this all over a political disagreement.  interesting, and telling

Fathertime!

Good evening, FT

I don't believe Phil was wishing 'bad' on me .. merely suggesting "no one loves you", so I'll 'die alone' ..

[2tallbill]

A Major Medical Staffing Company Just Slashed
Benefits for Doctors and Nurses Fighting Coronavirus
http://www.propublica.org/article/coronavirus-er-doctors-nurses-benefits

[ML]

Heard just a brief snippet on national news last night that USA intelligence is saying that China actually had > 25,000 deaths in Wuhan.

And several days earlier, wife told of reading that people keeping track of burials there also noting how they were much higher than the 3,000 or so reported by officials.

I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.

[Gator]

I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.

This echoes reports from other observers  claiming indirect data suggest the actual number of deaths was higher.   These observers examined number of urns sold, cancellations of individual telephone accounts, etc.     

[Gator]

New York Infectious Physician - "I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic"

The antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine is being administered to an increasing number of infected patients.  No scientific study has been completed, yet the early unscientific data continue to show promise.

One New York physician is a recognized authority on infectious disease. He is administering the drug with azithromycin to 72  high risk cases involving  comorbidity   (e. g., obesity, over 70% were diabetic or prediabetic).  He started the trail use five days ago, and so far none of the patients had to be intubated.  He expressed much hope in widespread success, saying "I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic."

http://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-stephen-smith-on-effectiveness-of-hydroxychloroquine-with-coronavirus-symptoms-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-pandemic

Dr. Smith's "battlefied" use does not qualify as something the FDA would accept as a scientific trial, yet it gives hope.  Fingers crossed.   News media such as NY Times who had previously been dismissive are now reporting positive results:  "Malaria Drug Helps Virus Patients Improve, in Small Study."

 http://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/01/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-malaria.html

       

[GQBlues]

I had brought this matter up before. Some remarked the idiocy of 'using an antibiotic to treat a virus'. Yet, the use of Azithromycin in conjunction with hydroxychloroquine had been widely used in So. Korea, France and even in China as a treatment against this pandemic - and had been showing more than mere 'promising' results...

[BillyB]

Heard just a brief snippet on national news last night that USA intelligence is saying that China actually had > 25,000 deaths in Wuhan.

And several days earlier, wife told of reading that people keeping track of burials there also noting how they were much higher than the 3,000 or so reported by officials.

I stated my position on this several days ago also (without proof or statistics) that I did not believe at all the 3,000 number being reported by China.

When Chinese were arresting people for talking about the mysterious pneumonia going around in December and January, that was a clue China lies and covers things up. We don't need an intelligence report to tell us that.

[GQBlues]

Well, FWIW, all the numbers in all nations, whether it's progressive confirmed cases or # virus-related deaths are all erroneous anyway. They're mostly an attempt to measure what is otherwise unknown. Confirmed cases means nothing as it doesn't denote actual and absolute volume of infection.

For example, the US daily numbers is NOT increasing in the way it is being represented. +700, +1,200, +600, +50, etc...means nothing. The actual rate of infection is 'unknown'. Unless everyone gets tested, everyone, we have no idea what 'new cases of infection really is. Testing everyone is the only way we can determine the true number of the infected from the rest. Until then, 'new cases' means absolutely zero. Lockdowns/quarantine are designed as a result of the estimated average period of incubation. Even that is unknown.

As for the # of dead, that number is also meaningless. That's just one of the end the result of this epidemic. A consequence of what is really important for all of us to know - actual # of infection.

For example: How is it actually helping any of us to 'see' over 10,000 people had already died in Italy? How will it 'help' if China reported whatever death count they actually have in China?

[BillyB]

How will it 'help' if China reported whatever death count they actually have in China?

It would've helped a lot because people would've understood the seriousness of this virus back in January instead of dismissing it as no more dangerous than the flu.

January 22 China had a few hundred infections, 17 deaths and told WHO this virus was not transferable between humans and people who are infected ate infected meat at a meat market so WHO recommended travel to China was safe. If China reported 10,000 dead and a hundred thousand people infected, that would set off alarms and China wouldn't be able to convince the world over a hundred thousand people ate contaminated meat and the virus was not transferable between humans. WHO and other nations would've taken action faster and more lives would be saved. Can't save everybody but we could've taken action earlier.

Many nations are going to be humiliated by the lack of response. Many politicians and health experts will manipulate the numbers to show their citizens/voters they done a good job compared to other nations. The truth will never be known but what we are seeing reported today is bad enough.

[GQBlues]

You think Billy? Double the count to 6,000+. Triple it to 9,000+...I highly doubt it would've changed the attitude of anyone anywhere.

Italy had 5-6,000 dead, yet they were still partying on the beaches of Florida, Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans, filling the subways of New York. Hell, they ran the LA marathon here...

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/la-marathon-underway-despite-coronavirus-concerns-winners-announced/2325043/

Now, had China, or even Italy, reported this unknown virus had infected say, 50, 60, 70 or even 80% of the population of Wuhan/Lombardy region (had they known), then MAYBE would have definitely get everyone's attention.

[BillyB]

You think Billy? Double the count to 6,000+. Triple it to 9,000+...I highly doubt it would've changed the attitude of anyone anywhere.

It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.

[GQBlues]

It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.

Factor of 40, sure. That would definitely be alarming. There were reports the virus was already infecting people as early as November, even in Italy. GPs were reporting simultaneous severe cases of unexplained pneumonia but just didn't know then a novel virus was the cause.

All I'm saying however is, numbers reported today are mostly irrelevant/meaningless in the sense it doesn't give any of us any accurate accounting of ACTUAL infection count. US is already at 250K mark, but it's possible 1 million, or even 2, are already infected IN ADDITION.

Strange to me how fast Apple can manufacture billions of iPhone in less than a year's time, but we can't manufacture 400 million test kits in 4 months.

[ML]

It is estimated that China's numbers should be multiplied by 40. I was important for China to warn governments of the danger which in turn can save lives. China could've told the truth with a massive amount of infections and deaths and told governments this disease is highly infectious and to begin mass production of PPE, ventilators, and build hospitals. By warning other governments, those governments could begin preparing what they need to save lives. Now all governments are behind in making test kits and other supplies.

Excellent post.
I learned 30-40 years ago that Chinese could simply not be trusted and knew nothing about honor, keeping their word, etc.
They would negotiate for weeks, agree to terms, and then come in the next day and want to modify everything.

[Gator]

THE GRIM REAPER

Projected daily deaths reaches its peak in the 3rd week of April at about 2,700 deaths per day. 




By June-July the total deaths are projected to be around 91,000 within a range of 40,000 - 170,000.