2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[LAman]

??


The Russian Federation banned all flights inbound from midnight on the 27th March .. irrespective of firm / nationality of the carrier - charter and scheduled  ...

You do mean international flights. Domestic flights still running.
I agree with mhr7, international flights stopped on 18th. For Russian nationals not sure if/when it stopped. Surely after March 27 date!! You need update your info Moby!!!

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2F20200326%2F1569163936.html

[msmob]

You do mean international flights. Domestic flights still running.
I agree with mhr7, international flights stopped on 18th. For Russian nationals not sure if/when it stopped. Surely after March 27 date!! You need update your info Moby!!!

http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fria.ru%2F20200326%2F1569163936.html

OMG

Save me from 'experts' ..

You know I think I'd know, as wifey was trying to get back TO Russia ;

1/ She'd had an earlier Etihad flt via Abu Dhabi cancelled

2/ OF COURSE international flights

3/ Wifey flew in to SVO Moscow at 04:30 MSK (26th March 2020) on a 100 percent full Rossiya Airlines 777 ( was an Aeroflot flt) 

4/ Only 20 percent of the passengers were RU citizens the rest were (attempting to) transit - I hope they got out.

5/ The shutters came down at 00:00 27th March - irrelevant of carrier nationality / charter or scheduled ..  We have friends on later dates who are still in Thailand and await repatriation flights . The Thais, initially insisted on visa expired folks to report to an immigration centre - 'social distancing' not observed.. That may still be the case.. madness


This has all been previously documented on here.

Anyway, the 'info' LAman sought


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/03/26/russia-to-ground-all-international-flights-over-coronavirus-a69754

"Russia will halt all international flights from midnight on Friday [ 27/3/2020]  under a government decree listing new measures against the coronavirus outbreak.

The decree published on Thursday [26/3/2020]  orders aviation authorities to halt all regular and charter flights, with the exception of special flights evacuating Russian citizens from abroad."


I know as SC's flight was in the air when it was announced and I thanked God

[msmob]

Is Russia denying entry to their own citizens that show up at a border checkpoint?

I cannot say, for sure ... Another friend in Georgia ( Rep, of) drove his RU registered car back across the border ( into Russia ) at 06:00 - seven hours AFTER the inward flts ban on 27th March 2020

I have just written to him and asked for an update as he has biz interests in Sochi AND Tbilisi


This was our WhatsApp conversation,as he was crossing :

"coming back to Russia, as the factory is switched to #homeoffice"

Moby:  Can you cross?
 I know the border was closed days ago and all international flights stopped yesterday! ....Unless you are Russian?

" Yep, I’m Russian and currently driving through the boarder
At this exact moment 🤣🤣🤣"


I corrected him on the spelling of border ( in Russian) and he sent me some photos

To be clear.. the border had been closed other than for RU / GE citizens ( and those with residency )  to 'repatriate' themselves ...  I THINK Armenia has an arrangement that RU drivers can takeover from  GE ones ( who swapped at the AZ/GE border ) and drive AM trucks ( as AM cannot access RU via AZ and trade staying open is vital to AM)

Leaving GE




Queuing to enter RU nr Vladikavkas





I'm not sure if RU trains run into 'Abkhazia', ( a breakaway republic of GE that RU 'recognises' as a separate entity ) anymore

[msmob]

Update re land borders:

BC,

 my friend in Sochi, who re-entered RU from GE on 27th March, responded:

"5 days after I crossed the border it was officially closed and till now it is closed even for Russian citizens. Currently the only option to come back to Russia is using charter flight organised by Ministry of Foreign affairs of Russia.

The ministry is managing the lists of people willing to come back to Russia and organises a flight. Yet the passengers have to pay 200-350$ for the tickets"

Best, Moby

[GQBlues]

More on HCQ...from France

Most of yesterday’s reports appears to suggest the US had flattened the curve so much so most of the additional provisions supplied by FEMA and the Army Corps of Engineers, hospital beds, ventilators, PPEs, etc. we’re for naught and are either going back to the national stockpile or being switched around to hot spots. Even the two medical ships were barely used, especially the one sent to NY, Comfort.

Ventilators became such a huge issue but never even came to justify the panic that surrounded it. California readied 11,000 units only to have used barely half of it. Trump yesterday even suggested maybe shipping some of them overseas. Not bad considering we’re supposed to have an inferior healthcare system.

None of any of the models that were presented even remotely came close to fruition. Even the most conservative of model was still grossly over-estimated.

Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year.

What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.

[BC]

GQ,

What you have to calculate in is also that intensive care folks usually stay on respirators for a long time, 2,3 4 weeks.  The daily rate of infection has not gone down except for typical weekend lulls as it seems labs may be taking weekends.

See the attached graphic.  The US still has a long way to go.  We also have another 3 weeks or so till the new infection numbers fall to a manageable figure.  Fall in deaths and intensive care numbers is slow and will take even longer.  As you can see, the virus is tenacious.

Was the acquisition of ventilators and such overkill? Never.  They can be sent to other countries that may still need them or put back into storage for the inevitable next time.

Note scale is approx. x5 for the US numbers, steady at 30,000 infections daily.  The red X is probably where we're at in the US in comparison, but the plateau may well be longer than ours here in Italy due to many factors.

The flat-top indicates that containment efforts are having an effect.  The peak could have been much much higher. 

[BillyB]

Trump yesterday even suggested maybe shipping some of them overseas.

Suggested? Trump WILL help Italy and other countries with supplies. America has managed the virus enough to slow infections and now we have more supplies than we need so Trump made the pledge to send PPE and ventilators elsewhere

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/trump-says-us-will-help-italy-with-medical-supplies-hospitals/ar-BB12sLAR?ocid=spartanntp

Of course fake news continues to write articles saying governors have to fight over PPE and they're on their own since the federal government doesn't want to help. Did you hear that reporter in yesterday's briefing ask about the States governors don't have enough PPE and Trump said "what governors?" and the guy didn't answer. You can be sure he'll write a fake news story like the one below written yesterday.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/states-do-battle-for-coronavirus-protective-gear-in-a-market-driven-by-chaos-and-fear/ar-BB12rD0L?ocid=spartanntp

None of any of the models that were presented even remotely came close to fruition. Even the most conservative of model was still grossly over-estimated.

Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year.

What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.

The projections of deaths are lower because we took adequate action against the virus. A draconian style lockdown and getting surrounded by the army wasn't necessary but there's still going to be a lot of deaths. Most of the people infected are still battling the virus and a portion of them will be placed in the dead pile. This virus is much more harmful to our way of life compared to past coronavirus SARS and MERS. It's not easily controlled and defeated like those viruses and plagues are. This is the virus of the century and worse than the Spanish Flu. I wish we were combating the Spanish flu virus instead of a coronavirus. With the level of medical science and technology we have these days, finding a vaccine and treatments for flu viruses are easy.

[msmob]

America has managed the virus enough to slow infections

There was fake news for all to see 

[BillyB]

It's official. Today President Trump ordered a “robust assistance package” to be sent to Italy.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492339-trump-orders-robust-assistance-package-for-italy

There was fake news for all to see 

If you think things are wildly out of control in America and Trump sends our medical supplies elsewhere, he will pay at the polls. Worry about your problems in the UK. You'll be getting an aid package from America soon. You can thank Trump later.

[msmob]

It's official. Today President Trump ordered a “robust assistance package” to be sent to Italy.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492339-trump-orders-robust-assistance-package-for-italy

If you think things are wildly out of control in America and Trump sends our medical supplies elsewhere, he will pay at the polls. Worry about your problems in the UK. You'll be getting an aid package from America soon. You can thank Trump later.

'Thank you', Silly BillyB ..  I hardly think what will happen at the polls is relevant, NOW ..  ' Trampu's' the man in the driving seat and has lurched all over the road re policy ..and daft pronouncements and politicking. 

'My' govt is the same re the daft pronouncements ..

What  our nations need is for people to stay at home, and be testing health and care workers ...


If one nation is helping another and it's needed..great ...

I have no problems whether it comes from Russia, America, China.

[GQBlues]

GQ,

What you have to calculate in is also that intensive care folks usually stay on respirators for a long time, 2,3 4 weeks.  The daily rate of infection has not gone down except for typical weekend lulls as it seems labs may be taking weekends.

See the attached graphic.  The US still has a long way to go.  We also have another 3 weeks or so till the new infection numbers fall to a manageable figure.  Fall in deaths and intensive care numbers is slow and will take even longer.  As you can see, the virus is tenacious.

Was the acquisition of ventilators and such overkill? Never.  They can be sent to other countries that may still need them or put back into storage for the inevitable next time.

Note scale is approx. x5 for the US numbers, steady at 30,000 infections daily.  The red X is probably where we're at in the US in comparison, but the plateau may well be longer than ours here in Italy due to many factors.

The flat-top indicates that containment efforts are having an effect.  The peak could have been much much higher.

Hi BC-

I had just finished watching NY's Andrew Cuomo's press briefing. Rather interesting that he pretty much echoed all of what I posted upthread. I've always been far more interested in NY's situation than that of my state for no other reason than NY is the epicenter of the infection. In the short 45 minutes, he covered many of the current main topics surrounding this virus and its impact. NY, for me, is easily the 'measuring stick', of all things COVID in the US.

Heck, he even shut down the buzz about a possible presidential run once and for all.

Scientifically, I can't argue the point in your graph. My only apprehension in these studies is it is lacking certain valid intangibles the actually impacts the field condition at any given time, thus in many ways - presently unpredictable. These graphs, like the modeling, are really nothing more than 'educated predictions', or FWIW, a guesstimates. A good example of this is the 50-year unemployment graph recently used to show the sudden spike this year.

It's never about the 'infection rate for me. it was always about the % of hospitalization. NY have almost 173K, at one time it was getting roughly 40% hospitalization rate, which was mind-blowing, yet to date, it only caused 8,600 deaths. A little less than 5% rate. That's not based on actual tested number and not even considering comorbidity argument. NY's situation looks really bad but not if you really take a closer look at the pertinent numbers.

I saw an interview from a doctor from the university of Washington yesterday declaring the pandemic in the US is all but over. Whether that's the case or not, of course remains to be seen.
 

[BC]

Yes GQ, it ain't over till it's over.

I'm gonna sign off here and spend the Easter weekend with family. 

Enjoy yours as well.  Many are not so lucky these days.

[GQBlues]

Happy Easter!

[2tallbill]

Happy Easter!

Happy Easter,

At my house we will celebrate it twice 

[GQBlues]

It’s a beautiful spring day in LA. All the birds are out singing and masked people are slowly walking about however scarce.

Enjoy your Easter, Bill!

[ML]

Happy Easter,

At my house we will celebrate it twice

Same here.

Wife insisted on cleaning house and making me clean all my stuff (mostly mail items) off the dining room table.

I told her this wasn't even her Easter, but she still insisted.

[BillyB]

Same here.

Wife insisted on cleaning house and making me clean all my stuff (mostly mail items) off the dining room table.

I told her this wasn't even her Easter, but she still insisted.

My wife cleaned house thoroughly today. She made me clean up my man cave.


Indigenous people everywhere may not fair well if the coronavirus comes their way. If I remember correctly, around 90% of Indians died from White man's diseases.

http://www.time24.news/i/2020/04/15-year-old-yanomami-indian-dies-in-roraima-after-6-days-in-the-icu-roraima-2.html

I don't watch right wing media and although I've been bashing left wing media for their handling and deception about the coronavirus crisis, I watch the video below and seen a lot of right wing media been very wrong about the virus too. They should get better experts to get their info from next time. Liberals will love the video below.

[fathertime]

What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

This may turn out to be the classic mother-of-all over-reaction.

I haven't missed a day of work, haven't shut down my shop for 30 seconds.  I'm from Missouri the "Show me State".  In addition, I guess I'm prepared to die if that is what it comes down to....although I'm practicing social distancing as best as I can.    On the downside, my household is running low on TP so there is a chance I may have to raid Trenchcoat or Billyb's stockpiles. 

Fathertime! 

[Gator]

Despite the 500,000 confirmed infection, with < 20,000 deaths, hard to believed it paralyzed our nation to a halt if you consider seasonal flu kills more of us on literally any given year.

So far.  One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000. 

It's not over.  Its over when we have a vaccine or an effective treatment method.  Until then, we will have an endemic level of COVID-19 just as we have an endemic level of flu.  IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu.   Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.   

If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.   

What this looks like is, we don’t care about dying as long as we know what’s killing us. But something begins killing that our science haven’t identified, we do stupid things like hoard toilet papers, stay home and cower, and stop the world from spinning.

You are correct.  But there is more.   

Its all about perceived risk rather than actual scientific risk.  Perception of risk is dependent upon 1) history/experience (as you mentioned), 2) whether the encounter is voluntary or involuntary, 3) consequences, 4) the length of time from the encounter to consequences, and 5) public attention.     

For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.       

Seasonal flu has been with us for eons.  COVID-19 is brand new.  With regard to flu we voluntarily go about our lives  doing little more than taking a flu vaccine and avoiding obviously sick people.    Is COVID-19  scientifically more virulent than flu in terms of transmissibility and fatality ratio?  Somewhat, but I contend not to the degree perceived by the public, a perception exacerbated by  the national attention given to it.  And that is driving public policy. 

[fathertime]

Indigenous people everywhere may not fair well if the coronavirus comes their way. If I remember correctly, around 90% of Indians died from White man's diseases.

 

The "White man" paid an enormous price in blood from past pandemics that circulated throughout Europe.  The ones that survived passed on some strong survival genes.  Indigenous populations from other regions may not see the same benefit from these genes and may be more susceptible to virus's like this. 

Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

For example, some idiots voluntarily smoke tobacco even though tobacco is known to both initiate and promote cancer as well as impair heart health, the two largest causes of death.       

..and other 'idiots' will play golf and get excessive sun exposure despite knowing the sun can cause skin cancer.    I'd say let the 'idiots' do what they enjoy without labeling them 'idiots'. 

Fathertime!   

[msmob]

So far.  One day after your post, your < 20,000 is > 20,000. 

I was going to raise this - THE most crassly stupid post I've read on here, tomorrow ..


But as you noticed GQB's howler, too ..

Did 'we' have to stay indoors when the flu' was raging....?  No ...   IMPOSSIBLE to know what would have / what will happen - given US / UK  numbers are still increasing ..   

When I read IDIOT's say, "see, the 'models of doom' were exaggerated" one HAS to wonder ...   are they trolling or that THICK?

[Gator]

I was going to raise this - THE most crassly stupid post I've read on here, tomorrow ..

R-E-L-A-X.  You exaggerate.  Howler?  No.

The curve is flattening, yet each day of course will increase the cumulative total, but still not 4x nor 3x seasonal flu deaths, something we accept. 

GQ's point whether precise or not is the focus of deciding what public policy to follow now that most people have been scared shitless.

 

When I read IDIOT's say, "see, the 'models of doom' were exaggerated" one HAS to wonder ...   are they trolling or that THICK?

I am missing your point.  The models as originally designed did overstate the number of deaths, the number of ventilators needed, etc.  The models have now been recalibrated. 

[BillyB]

IMO the endemic level of COVID-19 will cause as many deaths on an annual basis as seasonal flu.   Maybe more deaths, given that COVID is more contagious and the populations most vulnerable to flu and COVID are the same.   

If COVID-19 is indeed an endemic disease that will not go away, it means that eventually all of us will become infected.   

In the last few days,  COVID-19 is killing 2000 Americans daily. That pace makes it the #1 killer of Americans and would kill 730,000 Americans a year. The flu kills 12,000-62,000 in any given year. Imagine if we did nothing and went about our lives as normal. COVID would easily kill millions if not tens of millions of Americans a year.

I posted a funny video showing right wing media severely underestimating the virus but in all fairness, we weren't hurting a month ago. In over a month and a half, from January 21 when our first case showed up to March 12 we had 1581 cases and 41 deaths. That is nothing compared to what the flu was doing to us in that period. Probably why left wing media sharply criticized Trump's European travel ban on March 12 and ban of travel from China in January. They and their expert sources underestimated the seriousness of this virus too.

So with closing schools, implementing stay at home orders and shutting down a good portion of the economy, in one month we went from 1581 cases to 534,494 cases and 41 deaths to 20,637 deaths. The numbers are climbing exponentially even with action taken against the virus. If one looked at the Chinese numbers, it wouldn't give the impression that this virus was so deadly and contagious. The news experts and their expert sources should've factored in China was lying and didn't allow independent organizations to observe what was going on in their country. Experts on China should've known the virus was much worse than they disclosed. With constant action against the virus, we won't allow the numbers to go up exponentially but without a vaccine, we have to continue to take action against the virus which means we will do nothing from time to time and probably have to wear masks when we go out.

If we all get infected, I predict tens of millions of Americans will die and hundreds of millions worldwide will die. By taking action to limit the spread, we can spread those deaths over time and keep our hospitals from getting overwhelmed. It has not been determined if we have an immunity to this coronavirus yet. It may be possible to get COVID-19 more than once and the level of severity may vary like it does with the common cold. Sometimes we barely notice we have a cold, sometimes it'll floor us.

[msmob]

R-E-L-A-X.  You exaggerate.  Howler?  No.

The curve is flattening,

SERIOUS Q :  on what data do you base this assertion .... I've just seen the deaths per nation graphs on the UK's govts latest BS to the nation ..

'We' are behind and paralleling France / Italy .. not good ..

The USA ... your curve... is akin to an Atlas Rocket exiting the atmosphere ((