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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 304552 times)

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Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #650 on: April 14, 2020, 05:28:06 AM »
Then what city will be the next NYC? Yours?

There are three key differences between today and when the virus first invaded NYC:

     1.  Government is far more vigilant today - Not that long ago, the mayor was holding staff meetings at his gym, health officials were saying enjoy the parade, travelers were entering freely from Italy, etc.

    2.  We now have better tools in the medical toolbox - At the top of this list is testing.  Therapy is also better. 

    3.  Individuals venturing from home now know what to do to reduce risk of exposure.

Also dampening rebounds is that 'Reopening America' will be done in stages instead of returning immediately to 2019.    The virus will still rebound in some cities, yet surveillance will detect this early, and if so, mitigation measures will be renewed promptly (e. g., Singapore).   


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The number 1 moneymaker in FL is tourism. 

It will be a long time for tourism to recover fully.  Disney has reopened in China yet at lower levels with many controls.   Yet the beaches are still still there, bathed in balmy fresh air. 


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How about all those cruise ships?

They will be the next to last to reopen, just before the nude group massages. 


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Can't we be smarter than this incredibly dumb virus that does not even have a brain?

The virus caught us flat footed on two fronts. 

One front is public health.  We feared the wave of infections would exceed our hospital capacity.  American resourcefulness and public behavior prevented this, and now "the worst is over" (Governor Cuomo). 

Now we face a formidable challenge on a second front -  namely,  the costs of confronting the virus could exceed the capacity of our economy, flattening it just like "flattening the curve."  If so the damage will exceed the worst case envisioned for health.

The casualties in the health battles were primarily the elderly and/or sickly.   The casualties in the economic battles will be everyone,  and will be felt as more than malaise.  It will be measured in terms of poverty, depression, addiction,  suicide....


Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #651 on: April 14, 2020, 06:04:59 AM »
1/ Gator - your question was answers... as long as it takes, either to find a vaccine or better treatment

Vaccine is a big unknown.  It could be years, although I hope not.  Therapy is improving every day with prospects for much better.  However, you would have to read something other than anti-Trump sources to understand.   

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2/ If that means I'll not be with SC for a while .. I'd rather have that and be paying for for the govt borrowings, than losing friends and family needlessly early

Noble, but grossly overstated.  The epidemic wave has just hit, and is passing.  How many did we lose? 

This is declining to endemic levels.  More outbreaks  will occur, yet we will detect them sooner and respond better than for this first wave.    Stop hiding under your bed.     

 
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The point hat the good Doctor has made is that 'Trampu' DOESN'T listen to good advice ...

Pay attention.  This is not what he said.  He  had enough of the false accusations from the anti-Trump crowd and answered directly in unequivocal terms this was not the case.   


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Sure' ... tell THAT to lose who have lost loved ones - probably because 'Trampu' was more worried about the economy ... Again... he is not alone in not listening to the more negative predictions and necessary steps that should have been taken ...


And he should have been different from all of his G20 peers.    Actually, he was ahead of most, something that will be shown in the after-action reports.


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SOME folks seek to shut down WHO ( or have its head replaced ) for asking govts to "TEST, TEST and TEST again" ..

Not seeking to shutdown WHO, but to change it.  Do not parrot what China tells you.  Instead, have its fat cat executives living in their chalets in Switzerland to verify.  Do quick studies  such as done by UK's Imperial College, or at least read contrarian reports. 


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Seems to me the wrong guy  is in the crosshairs of those to dumb to see who SHOULD be replaced !

You have sunk to a new low in blind partisanship.  You might be the only non-Chinese citizen to believe this.   

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #652 on: April 14, 2020, 06:44:19 AM »
 


  Do not parrot what China tells you.   

You might be the only non-Chinese citizen to believe this.   
The real reason partisan patriots like jone and gator continue to unsuccessfully berate china is because they are beating us (The US) around the globe.

We in the US refuse to do much work, and try to demonize illegal immigrants that will actually do the work. According to this article the world is rather friendly with China, and this has upset the free loading, petro dollar printing US. 

How China could win over the post-coronavirus world and leave the U.S. behind

To understand the post-COVID-19 world that is coming, there is one important human statistic we must bear in mind: 330 million people live in the U.S.; 1.4 billion in China and approximately 6 billion in the rest of the world. These 6 billion, who live in 191 countries, have begun preparing themselves for the US-China geopolitical contest. Their choices will determine who will win.....


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-china-could-win-over-the-post-coronavirus-world-and-leave-the-us-behind-2020-04-14?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #653 on: April 14, 2020, 06:48:40 AM »
As yes, I noticed you were still misquoting longer dry spells and the sparks that started the Paradise fire weren't at all to do with the MUCH longer, drier spells...

Your attempt to slime your way out of the mess you created yourself is noted. Here's the exchanges to remind you again.

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=21622.msg520180#msg520180

(best you try and get that thread deleted too, like the Tiger Woods deleted pages, note not post, pages - that highlighted another of your silly dandies. - which it will probably be soon)

...and since this is Gator's COVID thread, I'll make this brief for you and edooket you some...The debate that rages in California regarding these wildfires have largely to do with the attitudes by environmentalist in the State. To insure getting elected, politicians cater to these naturalist groups to preserve our natural areas and woodlands to its natural state. Meaning, no firebreaks, no roads for fire engines, no water depot/sources, etc...this was, in greater detail was what both Trump and the state's governor (Brown) argued about during, and the aftermath of, the NoCal wildfires; and in lesser degree, the Woolsey fire.

Common forestry sense and management abandoned and consequently left woodland areas undefended and were ripe for wildfires as the same 'naturalist groups' were being razed by the same 'natural element' they advocated for - wildfires - and started burning their homes and existence. So your stupid 'global warming because of man causing long, dry spell in the desert' is asinine and really way out there. Not all of these so-called environmentalist ideology work in areas heavily populated.

It's been proven repeatedly in this forum that you are the least informed poster in this, or likely the other board. Thus, I advise that you 'ask' instead of 'tell' over many subjects discussed. You'll serve yourself much better.

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And.. ? He learnt more and revised his viewpoint - perfectly normal for an honest person

As we have no way of knowing if his models WERE 'over-estimations' .. He certainly explained they were worst case scenarios  - if NOTHING was done ... I'm wondering what you're trying to 'achieve' .. other than drawing attention to your ability to warp the words / intent of folks....

If it isn't clear to you, and since you 'ask' - you harped about the fake news subject that Trump is, or was not, listening to 'expert' opinion and he should. Thus, my post above.

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But did they quarantine you ? ,,,, Are you suggesting that lock-downs are a waste of time ...?  If so, relocate to Sweden or Belarus...

Good. You're 'asking' again. The point of the new estimate of 60,000 is simply to illustrate that the seasonal flu fatalities is still relatively far more virulent than that of COVID in the US at this point in time. It has no relation to Sweden, Belarus or Timbuktu.

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I'll probably have that as MY strapline in a few months ... to remind you ..  :deadhorse:

Please do, as I am in total lock step with New York's governor Cuomo on this one. After all, he should know more about NY than me - ESPECIALLY - far more than you.

http://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/coronavirus-death-toll-in-new-york-state-tops-10000-cuomo-says.html
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 06:53:53 AM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #654 on: April 14, 2020, 07:12:39 AM »
lock-downs are a waste of time ...?  If so, relocate to Sweden or Belarus...


Not sure what all they are doing in Belarus but contrary to popular belief, Sweden has taken action. They closed schools and universities. They recommend people to stay home and they ban gatherings larger than 50. Many experts say that is not enough but it will be an interesting experiment to see if a nation can get away with less action against this virus in a gamble to save more of their economy.

http://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-13/as-virus-deaths-rise-sweden-sticks-to-low-scale-lockdown

The IMF has now predicted the worst recession since the Great Depression.

Among the regions projected to see the hardest hit in 2020: the Euro Area at -7.5%, Mexico at -6.6%, the United Kingdom at -6.5%, and the United States at -5.9%. China is projected to grow by 1.2%, still a noticeable downgrade from its 2019 growth rate of 6.1%.

“Much worse growth outcomes are possible and maybe even likely,” IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath said. The IMF cautioned that its forecast faces “extreme uncertainty” because of the difficulty around predicting the pathway of the pandemic and the efficacy of containment measures, among other factors


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-the-great-lockdown-to-be-worst-recession-since-great-depression-123009231.html?.tsrc=fin-notif
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #655 on: April 14, 2020, 07:55:13 AM »

    2.  We now have better tools in the medical toolbox - At the top of this list is testing. 


I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed.  That's only a little over twice the rate here in Italy.  Mentions that some states were not testing to capacity, or that materials were not on hand etc.

We'll have our own challenges with testing here, but what hit me as odd is if we in the US have a 25-30,000 positives per day with 110,000 tests, are hospitals and doctors still having difficulty getting tests done for staff? What about our elderly in assisted living homes etc?  Is the 'flattening' of new infections artificial? 

It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus.  I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #656 on: April 14, 2020, 08:26:03 AM »
Well shows how 'resilient' and 'exceptional' the US populace is. 
  If what you report is accurate moving forward may be have a higher survival rate even with the virus running loose! 

Fathertime!

They're mostly snowflakes, FT. But since you admitted not belonging to the 'exceptional /resilient' group that the vast majority of true Americans like myself are, we need not worry.

Unlike you, of course.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #657 on: April 14, 2020, 08:46:01 AM »
I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed.  That's only a little over twice the rate here in Italy.  Mentions that some states were not testing to capacity, or that materials were not on hand etc.

We'll have our own challenges with testing here, but what hit me as odd is if we in the US have a 25-30,000 positives per day with 110,000 tests, are hospitals and doctors still having difficulty getting tests done for staff? What about our elderly in assisted living homes etc?  Is the 'flattening' of new infections artificial? 

It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus.  I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.

BC-

It isn't solely about availability of test. This seeming low number of daily testing is attributable to the fact most places, if not all, are only 'testing' those showing symptoms.

I don't believe we have enough test kits to test the entire population yet, but there has been progress in enhancing not only the manufacturing of reliable test kits we have today, but also the methodology and the efficiency of getting the result. They are now even trying to get FDA approval about a 'saliva sampling test kits' as it is.

National testing is the surest way to curb and tame our nation today, health and economic sense.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #658 on: April 14, 2020, 08:48:35 AM »
FWIW, where I am. I noticed about a 35-40% rise in rush hour traffic on my way to work this morning. Daily traffic report on the radio also noted the increase.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #659 on: April 14, 2020, 08:50:17 AM »

The Russian government says it has carried out over 1.4 million tests for Covid-19. But Moscow doctors have recently begun diagnosing patients as positive based on lung scans because of questions over the accuracy of the tests.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coronavirus-takes-a-serious-turn-in-russia-and-putin-no-longer-radiates-confidence/ar-BB12Ckon?ocid=spartanntp

Russia is another nation speaking on the inaccuracy of test kits. I remember reading Spain complained their Chinese test kits were 30% accurate and Czech Republic complaining their Chinese test kits were 20% accurate. That means a lot of infected people may be allowed to go back into the general population after getting tested and some non infected people may be placed in mandatory quarantine at some hotel.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #660 on: April 14, 2020, 09:31:40 AM »
BC-

It isn't solely about availability of test. This seeming low number of daily testing is attributable to the fact most places, if not all, are only 'testing' those showing symptoms.


That would make logical sense, but the 'top of the curve' just seems way too flat IMO.  I am pretty sure any excess testing capacity would be extended to health workers, police and other critical workers.  Is that happening?

Offline tfcrew

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #661 on: April 14, 2020, 09:36:49 AM »
This has all reminded me of a cross between The Thing and Invasion of the Body Snatchers



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Offline tfcrew

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #662 on: April 14, 2020, 09:39:21 AM »
 
~There is no one more blind than those who refuse to see and none more deaf as those who will not listen~
~Think about the intelligence of the average person and then realize that half of the people are even more stupid than that~

Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #663 on: April 14, 2020, 01:50:08 PM »
I watched Pence last night who stated that 110,000 tests per day were being performed. 

I agree more tests are needed, and I don't know the situation.  It varies among states.   For example, Florida is doing more testing than its share based on population, about 10,000 tests per day (a peak of 15,485 yesterday with only 1,124 positives). 
 

Quote
It will, of course, take a huge testing push to get and keep a handle on the virus.  I don't get a warm and fuzzy feeling about this most important aspect of recovery.

Agree.  Testing is the key to reducing the number of infections to low numbers. 

NATIONAL GOAL:  Identify the 2-3 million "carriers" in America and isolate them, rather than isolating the entire 330 million. 

How do we scale up to huge numbers of daily tests needed to identify the "carriers?"

The 5-minute Abbott Labs test approved three weeks ago was a game changer using the small ID NOW platform, with 18,000 devices already existing in ERs, doctors’ offices, and urgent-care clinics around the country.  However, 18,000 devices is a pittance of what we need, and where will we find the medical staff to operate a huge increase in number of devices?

There is talk of a home test.  Yet, it is months away.

Meanwhile....we need to get back to work.   

Offline jone

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #664 on: April 14, 2020, 02:04:35 PM »
4701 vs. 731.   Interesting numbers.   The first is the seasonal average for flu deaths in the State of California.   The second number is the actual deaths in California from COVID 19.

I have always felt that the warmer the climate, the fewer deaths from viruses.  Maybe that's just me.
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Offline LAman

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #665 on: April 14, 2020, 02:51:59 PM »
4701 vs. 731.   Interesting numbers.   The first is the seasonal average for flu deaths in the State of California.   The second number is the actual deaths in California from COVID 19.

I have always felt that the warmer the climate, the fewer deaths from viruses.  Maybe that's just me.

Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?

I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.
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Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #666 on: April 14, 2020, 03:39:18 PM »
That would make logical sense, but the 'top of the curve' just seems way too flat IMO.  I am pretty sure any excess testing capacity would be extended to health workers, police and other critical workers.  Is that happening?

That has been happening. First responders and healthcare workers. NY had already listed the number of infected NYPD officers including # of fatalities so far. As well as other places...

But, based on worldometer count today (610,600), and if the % of positive cases from total testing remains at 15%, then 4 million tested is pretty low. Even if you allow for a contingency of 3 (12 million, for re-test, false negative/positive, botched tests, etc..), of testing in the given period, is still relatively 'low'.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 03:43:14 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline jone

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #667 on: April 14, 2020, 05:25:57 PM »
My favorite pasta take-out place closed down yesterday.   Not due to virus concerns, but due to lack of customers.   This place fed the local businesses in the area.  All of which are shut down.
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

Offline ML

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #668 on: April 14, 2020, 06:55:09 PM »

Agree.  Testing is the key to reducing the number of infections to low numbers. 

As I wrote earlier in some thread; the idea that testing will solve most of  the problem has a flaw.

Person X tests negative today, but tomorrow he/she would test positive if retested.

Yes, testing does help identify those who test positive on that day; but retesting needed on each following day if everyone is to be identified over time.

Ah . . . for the simpler days of tracking down Typhoid Mary victims.

Or . . . I remember reading 15 or so years ago about tracking a case of STDs.
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Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #669 on: April 14, 2020, 08:38:18 PM »
They're mostly snowflakes, FT. But since you admitted not belonging to the 'exceptional /resilient' group that the vast majority of true Americans like myself are, we need not worry.

Unlike you, of course.
Still haven't missed a day or minute of work, unlike you huddled up behind your rolls of toilet paper.   You can still call yourself 'exceptional' though, since it makes you feel good about yourself. 

Fathertime!
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #670 on: April 14, 2020, 08:39:27 PM »
FWIW, where I am. I noticed about a 35-40% rise in rush hour traffic on my way to work this morning. Daily traffic report on the radio also noted the increase.
There was a large increase where I was also, and I've spoke to a few others that have said the same. 

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline tfcrew

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #671 on: April 14, 2020, 08:52:31 PM »
 
The Plague Writers Who Predicted Today


 
  • By Jane Ciabattari
Quote
14 April 2020   In uncertain – indeed, weird – times like these, as we increase our social isolation to ‘flatten the curve’, literature provides escape, relief, comfort and companionship. Less comfortingly, though, the appeal of pandemic fiction has also increased. Many pandemic titles read like guide books to today’s situation. And many such novels give a realistic chronological progression, from first signs through to the worst times, and the return of ‘normality’. They show us we’ve been through this before. We’ve survived.
http://www.bbc.com/culture/story/20200413-what-can-we-learn-from-pandemic-fiction



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Offline BC

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #672 on: April 14, 2020, 11:47:39 PM »
Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?

I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.

Lockdown and distancing works against flu as well ;)  It is indeed too early, we still do not know much about this bug.  The mutation rate is reported to be slower, that means only that a vaccine may work better and longer.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #673 on: April 16, 2020, 01:21:02 PM »
Are you saying that having COVID 19 saved almost 4000 lives? Is it determinable to know how many deaths were from the flu?

The CDC report I posted here not too long ago cited that flu deaths (2018, I believe) were 'estimated' based on modeling.

But then, COVID's death rate is also questionable because of comorbidity e.g. they credit COVID for the death count as long as the dead tested positive for the virus in the absence of any autopsy. I suppose because not only there isn't much time these days under the circumstances, and/or, it apparently may also be related to what the payoff is with Medicare since the majority of deaths are with the elderlies....

Quote
I think it is way to early to determine if coronavirus will act like influenza virus and be seasonal or if it will be back next year. As I understand, the coronavirus mutates slower than influenza virus.

It may well be. But, as mentioned above, very likely won't get a perfect science either. They'll still rely on modeling. IF COVID ever 'becomes' treatable, or a vaccine is created for it, the chances of this getting lumped as part of the seasonal 'flu' in the future is pretty good. We're not exactly getting separate vaccines for H1N1, MERS, SARS, etc...
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2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
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Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #674 on: April 16, 2020, 11:44:03 PM »

China did something strange again. For over 3 weeks, they haven't reported more than 7 deaths a day. Some days they reported zero deaths. Today they reported 1290 deaths. Could it be them attempting to raise the number of deaths to decrease the number of accusations that they are lying? Their reputation is taking a hit. Fortunately for them, there's quite a few people out there that would never hold them responsible.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

 

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