If China is Really Responsible......

[Faux Pas]

I guess it is a hypothesis, but not much more at this point and certainly not a 'eureka!' moment.

If the pie arrives, we'll be able to proof the pudding.

Very likely there is pieces of evidence we know nothing about. We may never know. One thing for certain we do know, there is a virus and the CCP attempted to hide it and the WHO was complicit in that. Why?

[BC]

FP,

Yes, there are inconsistencies that are being investigated and questions that should be answered by both China and WHO.

I do hope clarifications will be forthcoming by both sides.

[BillyB]

Heard a female MD on news show last night who was on National Security team for a couple of years and now with private organization.

She reviewed the 3 theories:
1) Corona was man made by China and released.
2) Corona was natural and was being worked on in lab and got out due to carelessness.
3) Corona was natural from animals and got out from the wet market.

She said all science has rejected number 1.

Said that science may never be able to determine if 2 or 3 true.

Science can determine if 3 is true or not. China knows where all the bats are located in their country. They need to give permission to search for every animal and test for the coronavirus that is affecting us. China already has collected viruses out of bats and other animals to study. Why not allow scientists in to review their documents and take blood samples from animals in their country? This is going to cost the world tens of trillions of dollars within a few months, not to mention massive amount of lives lost and altered. What's spending a few billion dollars for the largest manhunt in history to find the source and eliminate it so we don't go through this exercise again? If China really believes it came from an animal, it would help their reputation if they allowed a search for the source in their country. Maybe they know an animal would never be found? IIRC, 96'% of the genome of our coronavirus is identical to a coronavirus found in bats. 4% is different so we need to find if that 4% naturally evolved in an animal or lab.

[ML]

Quote from: ML on Today at 10:27:12 AM
Heard a female MD on news show last night who was on National Security team for a couple of years and now with private organization.

She reviewed the 3 theories:
1) Corona was man made by China and released.
2) Corona was natural and was being worked on in lab and got out due to carelessness.
3) Corona was natural from animals and got out from the wet market.

She said all science has rejected number 1.

Said that science may never be able to determine if 2 or 3 true.

- - - - - - -
Quote from Billy:

Science can determine if 3 is true or not.

- - - - - - -

Billy, I think you are missing the point.

The corona virus in the lab #2 was same as corona virus in the market #3.
i.e. Both from bats.

It is known corona came from bats.

Question is: from bats in lab, or bats in market.

[jone]

Bats that are in Eastern China around 1300 miles away and not present in the live market. 

[BillyB]

It is known corona came from bats.

Question is: from bats in lab, or bats in market.

My last post was proposing to spend billions of dollars to find bats or any animals that may have the coronavirus but it's not true that coronaviruses are found only in bats. Coronaviruses can survive in cell cultures in labs or in other animals.

There's only a few coronavirus out of many that can penetrate human cells. Out of the 3 most dangerous ones, SARS, MERS, and SARS COV-2 two of them started in china. For some reason coronaviruses found in China have a high tendency to acquire the ability to penetrate human cells. As of right now, SARS and MERS is predicted to have a case fatality rate higher than SARS COV-2 but SARS COV-2 is much more dangerous because of it's behavior. It still kills many people but allows some people to be silent carriers and super spreaders unlike the other two.

The pathogen of the century would make for an ideal bioweapon if there was a vaccine available for the army that wants to use it. There are now two aircraft carriers parked due to the virus. A disease spreading also demoralizes sailors and soldiers.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/under-fire-french-navy-defends-handling-of-aircraft-carrier-virus-outbreak/ar-BB12MkL6?ocid=spartanntp

Some scientists believe the virus may have came out as early as September. China did admit that American soldiers brought the virus to China in October when they were there for military games. My uncle's tour group train was stopped before they got to Wuhan in the middle of November and was told to go around the city. In the past I posted an article talking about a man on an airplane showing up in Wuhan infected with a coronavirus. Some scientists speculate the coronavirus was stolen out of a Canadian lab.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/coronavirus-outbreak-may-have-started-as-early-as-september-scientists-say/ar-BB12MPqU?ocid=spartanntp

Bats that are in Eastern China around 1300 miles away and not present in the live market. 

The coronavirus in human bodies is closely related to the coronavirus in those bats far from Wuhan. They aren't the same but very close. This info is important because those bats are located so far away from Wuhan, it blows a hole in China's story that virus tainted bats were sold in a wet market in Wuhan.

Surprisingly, many people on the left aren't angry with China and WHO. Give it a year. After more facts come out, economies crash, more people die, some survivors left with a lifetime of medical problems, and quality of life deteriorates for all, they may place the blame on the appropriate sources.

[Gator]

The corona virus in the lab #2 was same as corona virus in the market #3.
i.e. Both from bats.

Bats that are in Eastern China around 1300 miles away and not present in the live market.

Just as important for pointing to Theory No. 2 as correct, many of the first patients in Wuhan had no contact with the wet market.

[Gator]

So we went from China to Arkansas, to Senate Intel, Senate Armed Forces to Cotton, to the liberal media, to House Intel, to impeachment, to derive that Schiff is culpable of distracting the President from fighting the Coronavirus.

Ok...

 

I was not thinking  about Schiff distracting the President.  I doubt that Schiff ever slowed Trump given his energy.   Who knows, Trump might have been amused in a bizarre way.   

My point - the impeachment consumed Schiff, distracting him from doing his job.  Who knows maybe he would have discovered something about Iran's Soleimania, or a dangerous virus in China.   Cotton sure did in a higher chamber. 

BTW, it takes a few steps to connect Cotton and Schiff for comparative purposes. 

[BillyB]

   
My point - the impeachment consumed Schiff, distracting him from doing his job.  Who knows maybe he would have discovered something about Iran's Soleimania, or a dangerous virus in China.   Cotton sure did in a higher chamber. 

Schiff is the Chairman of the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He overseas all the nations intelligence and security agencies. He has access to the same intelligence Trump gets everyday in briefings yet if you Google January and February articles with his name, you will find he was busy with impeachment. He did nothing to stop a threat from coming into America. But surprisingly, for a guy who LOVES to criticize Trump, he said nothing pertaining to Trump's travel restrictions on China in January. He knew the truth and he knew Trump made the right decision.

http://intelligence.house.gov/about/

[BC]

There is so much we may not know yet.

http://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-outbreak-september-not-wuhan-1498566

[LAman]

Just as important for pointing to Theory No. 2 as correct, many of the first patients in Wuhan had no contact with the wet market.

As usual RWD is on top of every news story coming out about SARS CoV-2 virus.
Let's wait to see what comes out in next few months till end of year. Why debate about stuff if a clearer picture comes out later?

I saw the article Billy gave a few posts up. Timing about when outbreak first came out. Even that some 'A' type genomes were from Guangdong.

Here is the published article:
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117

what is interesting is following some paths of virus based on mutations and genomes!!!

[Gator]

Let's wait to see what comes out in next few months till end of year. Why debate about stuff if a clearer picture comes out later?

Because I have too much free time on my hands, and my wife told me she is busy and to stop bothering her.  For better or worse, but not for lunch. 

Here is the published article:

My biochemistry for engineers class is failing me.  Besides we focused on bacteria, etc. lumping them together in the category of "bugs." 

what is interesting is following some paths of virus based on mutations and genomes!!!

That will speak volumes when it is analyzed and published. 

[jone]

The CCP issued Order Number 3 on the 3rd of January ordering all local health officials to destroy lab samples of the virus.   It further instructed them not to distribute any information relating to the virus.   Finally, it states that any papers or interviews were to go through the official arm of the Chinese Government.   While these may be prudent steps to sing with one voice, the intent was not to give a unified and verified account of the spread of the virus, but rather to hide the outbreak and the source of the outbreak.

Copies of the document were obtained from these same health officials and shared with members of the Taiwanese media and legislators.

In other news, it appears that many of the Chinese factories are burning down.   The simple fact is that they have no customers.   And the only way for the owners not to go under is to burn the factory and collect insurance.

[ML]

Just as important for pointing to Theory No. 2 as correct, many of the first patients in Wuhan had no contact with the wet market.

Um, well . . . I was under impression the virus passes from person to person, so . . . what is significant about saying some had no contact with the wet market?

I suppose some had no contact with the lab either.

[jone]

There is so much we may not know yet.

http://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-outbreak-september-not-wuhan-1498566

Wow, BC,

Did you read the comments listed after your article?   I think the Russian troll factory has moved from Petersburg to Beijing and now works for the Chinese Communist Party.

You are, of course, right in that there is so much we don't' know yet.    One of the biggest complaints from the researchers that I have seen is that China will not release the Genome for the first cases.   Something happened that scared the hell out of the Chinese Government around the 3rd of December.   Everyone who knew anything was rounded up and hidden from the world.   

We'll have to wait and see.   I have the feeling we will know a lot more in a month or so. 

[jone]

Wow,

China actually upped the numbers of its dead.   

Sometimes I wonder if China has any idea of what it looks like when they report fewer deaths than many of the countries that are suffering from this virus.   According to the official Chinese news agencies, they under reported by 1400 deaths.  Now they are stopping their own people from coming across the border, implying that the virus is really coming from outside the country.

The more they pull this sh&t, the more people get upset with them. 

[Gator]

Um, well . . . I was under impression the virus passes from person to person, so . . . what is significant about saying some had no contact with the wet market?

They were in the group of the earliest cases, too early for a human infected at the wet market to have have passed it to them via normal transmission pathways (e. g., coughing). 
   

I suppose some had no contact with the lab either.

The wet market theory could be confirmed/rebutted by an evolutionary virology study.  However, the Chinese supposedly destroyed the evidence necessary for such a study.   

[LAman]

Wow,

China actually upped the numbers of its dead.   

Must have been the pressure applied from RWD!!!!

[BC]

[jone]

Must have been the pressure applied from RWD!!!!

We are standing in the door frame of history, right now.   It is perfectly right that we should discuss this.   I realize you have an arch view of all of this.   But if people were writing things about the rebellion in the colonies so many years ago, and those writings survived, they became the basis for our understanding of what happened. 

If people wrote about the rise of the Third Reich back in the early to mid thirties, such would be a treasure trove of understanding how such a failure of humanity occurred. 

We are having honest dialogue as the world events unfold.  That, to me, is more than valuable.  It is part of the upward march of humanity.  I would think that such dialogue, no matter where it is collected from, will create an ongoing transcript of what we were thinking when all of this transpired.

[BillyB]

Must have been the pressure applied from RWD!!!!

When China Googles "coronavirus" RWD is at the top of the list. They are reading everything we say and know we are not easily swayed by their propaganda. I'm sure some of the posters here are on their shit hit list. We might go missing like those researchers and doctors Trump talked about in a briefing. They may torture us and feed us bat.

[Gator]

CHINA-WHO-US TIMELINE

As criticism grows about WHO's and China's responses, I prepared this timeline of their interactions.  Some of this came from  CNN's Fareed Zakaria 12 April interview with WHO's senior spokesperson Dr. Margaret Harris.     

Dec 31 - WHO was alerted in the evening of 44 cases of mysterious pneumonia.  WHO gets such calls almost every day, yet this one set off alarm bells and  was termed a "serious matter."  WHO went to work the next day (1 January), dispatching WHO's China-in-country team to Hubei. 

Jan 5 -  WHO published a formal notification of Disease Outbreak News,  calling it a "Pneumonia of unknown cause."

         http://www.who.int/csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/

Jan 9 - WHO released a statement announcing the source of the disease: "Chinese authorities have made a preliminary determination of a novel (or new) coronavirus, identified in a hospitalized person with pneumonia in Wuhan."

Jan 10 - WHO issued "technical guidance online with advice to all countries on how to detect, test and manage potential cases, based on what was known about the virus at the time."  The disease resembled SARS and MERS and WHO advised health workers to take precautions when caring for patients.

Jan 12 - China described the virus genome, thereby allowing analytical detection tests to be developed.

Jan 14 -  At a press conference in Geneva, Maria Van Kerkhove of WHO's emerging diseases unit told a Reuters reporter: "From the information that we have it is possible that there is limited human-to-human transmission, potentially among families, but it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission." However, that same day WHO tweeted a different take, stating that "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China" and also told an NPR reporter that Van Kerkhove had been misunderstood and there was in fact no evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Jan 22-23 - Tedros convened a meeting of its Emergency Committee as per the International Health Regulations (2005).  The committee is comprised of independent scientists from around the globe, and their duty is to reach a consensus about whether to alert the world of a serious disease.  The committee did not reach a consensus "based on the evidence available at the time."   Tedros asked them to reconvene again in 10 days. 

Jan 23 - Tedros stated it was too early to declare the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. "Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one."

Jan 23 - China moved to stop all travel in and out of Wuhan, unfortunately after millions had already left the province for China's annual New Year celebrations.  .

Jan 24 - In a tweet, Trump praised China for its efforts to prevent the spread of the virus.

Jan 30 - As more countries reported infections,  the Executive Committee reconvened and this time reached consensus.  The Committee advised Tedros that the novel coronavirus outbreak constituted a "Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC)." Tedros declared a PHEIC, the sixth such declaration since 2005.

Tedros issued a statement with his Jan 30 declaration.  In it, he praised China:

As I have said repeatedly since my return from Beijing, the Chinese government is to be congratulated for the extraordinary measures it has taken to contain the outbreak, despite the severe social and economic impact those measures are having on the Chinese people.

We would have seen many more cases outside China by now – and probably deaths – if it were not for the government’s efforts, and the progress they have made to protect their own people and the people of the world.

The speed with which China detected the outbreak, isolated the virus, sequenced the genome and shared it with WHO and the world are very impressive, and beyond words. So is China’s commitment to transparency and to supporting other countries.

In many ways, China is actually setting a new standard for outbreak response. It’s not an exaggeration. 

 http://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

One member of the WHO Emergency Committee, Prof.  John Mackenzie of Australia's Curtin University soon broke ranks and had a different opinion about China.  He accused China of not reporting cases fast enough in the early stages of the outbreak, calling Beijing’s response "reprehensible."

http://www.ft.com/content/8ede7e92-4749-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

Jan 31 -  One day after WHO declared an emergency, Trump issued an executive order blocking entry to the US from anyone who has been in China in the last 14 days.

Feb 4 - At a WHO briefing, Tedros criticized travel bans. "We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit. ... Where such measures have been implemented, we urge that they are short in duration, proportionate to the public health risks and are reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves."

Fareed question Dr. Harris about WHO's criticism of travel bans even though a travel ban had been implemented for SARS.  She replied that bans create economic harm and can inhibit the travel and trade of healthcare professionals and supplies.  She closed that is prudent to prevent individuals from leaving locales of high infection.

This timeline does not reflect contrary reports from Imperial College, Taiwan, etc.     

[ML]

Excellent posting Gator.

You are to be commended, and I do so !!

[BillyB]

Dec 31 - WHO was alerted in the evening of 44 cases of mysterious pneumonia.  WHO gets such calls almost every day, yet this one set off alarm bells and  was termed a "serious matter."  WHO went to work the next day (1 January), dispatching WHO's China-in-country team to Hubei. 

Your timeline is accurate but although WHO wanted to go to work Jan 1, I don't think China allowed them to. China prevented WHO from investigating anything well into February and probably never but I didn't check past February.

Below article has a tweet by WHO on Jan 3 saying the Chinese govt. met with WHO's in country office and updated them on the situation. Sounds to me like WHO wasn't allowed to investigate after they mobilized Jan 1 and consequently from the beginning relied on what China was telling them.

http://www.statnews.com/2020/01/04/mystery-pneumonia-outbreak-china/

Also, although Trump praised China for their good work on the virus Jan 24, probably repeating what he heard from WHO, Trump quickly discovered China's BS and applied travel restrictions.

[jone]

Thanks for the timeline, Gator.  We all have a clearer understanding of what took place.