Forum > Ukrainian Front Discussion
The Struggle For Ukraine
JayH:
The battle for Ukraine to extract itself out of the Soviet Union has continued long after the disintegration of the FSU as Soviet Russia and Putin's kleptocracy has fought to maintain control and influence over Ukraine.Ukrainians fought a bloody battle on the streets of Kyiv and now in an ongoing war in eastern Ukraine in the desire for freedom and a democracy.
My fundamental observation is contained in this sentence quote "Ukrainian civil society has reason to be proud of what it has accomplished to date."end quote .The question some still ask is "what has changed"? Well-- a lot has changed- but progress is still too slow -- a point most agree on.
Progress in Ukraine is clearly discernible on many fronts, but it is in danger. Incomplete reforms threaten to undermine the credibility of ‘new forces’ and lead to the disillusionment of millions of Ukrainians. This would open the way for revanchist and populist forces to hijack Ukraine’s transformation agenda.
Nearly four years on from its Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine is fighting for survival as an independent and viable state.
This report makes the case for increased Western support, and argues the EU has been too timid in applying its unprecedented political mandate to drive forward post-2014 reforms in the country.
The report, which includes policy recommendations, assesses Ukraine’s position and prospects, and examines its double existential threat: resisting Russian interference, and the fierce internal contest to determine its own political, institutional and civic future.
The report covers six critical areas: geopolitics and security in the context of the conflict with Russia; European integration and the demands of the Association Agreement; economic reform; governance, democratization and the media; the role of civil society in reforms; and efforts to combat corruption.
The Struggle for Ukraine
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/publications/research/2017-10-18-struggle-for-ukraine-ash-gunn-lough-lutsevych-nixey-sherr-wolczuk.pdf
http://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/struggle-for-ukraine
http://f1.media.brightcove.com/7/2848955551001/2848955551001_5600139110001_5600112311001.mp4?pubId=2848955551001&videoId=5600112311001
A quick read summary of issues is here--
Five Things to Know about the Problems Facing Ukraine
(1) Ukraine is currently fighting two separate battles.
(2) Seven per cent of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory has either been annexed by Russia or is controlled by pro-Russian separatists.
(3) Ukraine has struggled to weaken the grip of vested interests and establish a rules-based market economy domestically.
(4) The outcome of Ukraine’s protracted domestic battle with corruption will ultimately define its future.
(5) The Euromaidan protest in late 2013 was triggered by the Ukrainian government’s suspension of plans for closer integration with the EU.
http://medium.com/chatham-house/five-things-to-know-about-the-problems-facing-ukraine-27c2b22f5074
The struggle for Ukraine: a detailed analysis of reform and failure after Euromaidan
Ukraine’s principal challenges
1. Security and defense
2. Reforms. Eurointegration
3 Economic reforms
4 Democratization and governance
5 Human capital and civil society
6 Anti-corruption reforms
Recommendations
To strengthen security,To advance EU integration,To boost economic and political reform,
http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/10/20/the-struggle-for-ukraine-a-detailed-analysis-of-reform-and-failure-after-1991/
JayH:
I have linked this article here because it is a summary of some history that led to much of the content of the above articles.
This is quite a good summary in such a short space.
Russia’s attitude has roots in the revolution — and in the famine that killed 13 percent of Ukrainians.
Why does Putin want to control Ukraine? Ask Stalin.
In 2014, Russian officials looked with horror at the young people waving European flags and calling for democracy in Kiev’s Maidan Square and were determined to make sure such a movement would never spread to Russia itself: A mass anti-corruption protest — particularly one that ends with occupation of the dictator’s palace — is what Russia’s corrupt oligarchs fear most. Putin witnessed exactly that kind of “chaos” as a young KGB officer in Dresden in 1989, when the fall of the Berlin Wall struck him as catastrophic. He now blames protests against him on “foreign agents” and Hillary Clinton.
But the need to control Ukraine also has important roots in Russia’s historical memory, and the KGB’s. Turbulence in Ukraine hits panic buttons, because anarchy in the Soviet Union’s agricultural heartland has nearly destabilized Moscow more than once. Perhaps the best way to explain Putin’s paranoia and covetousness toward Kiev is this: Russia remembers those moments well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/why-does-putin-want-control-ukraine-ask-stalin/2017/10/20/800a7afe-b427-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.85cc61a6d83d
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/anne-applebaum-putin-want-control-ukraine-ask-stalin.html
If you have a problem reading the previous links-- it should be possible to read in full here ---
http://www.cetusnews.com/news/Perspective-%7C-Why-does-Putin-want-control-Ukraine--Ask-Stalin-.SkgypvuBFw6Z.html
jone:
--- Quote from: JayH on October 20, 2017, 06:42:36 PM ---I have linked this article here because it is a summary of some history that led to much of the content of the above articles.
This is quite a good summary in such a short space.
Russia’s attitude has roots in the revolution — and in the famine that killed 13 percent of Ukrainians.
Why does Putin want to control Ukraine? Ask Stalin.
In 2014, Russian officials looked with horror at the young people waving European flags and calling for democracy in Kiev’s Maidan Square and were determined to make sure such a movement would never spread to Russia itself: A mass anti-corruption protest — particularly one that ends with occupation of the dictator’s palace — is what Russia’s corrupt oligarchs fear most. Putin witnessed exactly that kind of “chaos” as a young KGB officer in Dresden in 1989, when the fall of the Berlin Wall struck him as catastrophic. He now blames protests against him on “foreign agents” and Hillary Clinton.
But the need to control Ukraine also has important roots in Russia’s historical memory, and the KGB’s. Turbulence in Ukraine hits panic buttons, because anarchy in the Soviet Union’s agricultural heartland has nearly destabilized Moscow more than once. Perhaps the best way to explain Putin’s paranoia and covetousness toward Kiev is this: Russia remembers those moments well.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/why-does-putin-want-control-ukraine-ask-stalin/2017/10/20/800a7afe-b427-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?hpid=hp_no-name_opinion-card-f%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.85cc61a6d83d
http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/anne-applebaum-putin-want-control-ukraine-ask-stalin.html
If you have a problem reading the previous links-- it should be possible to read in full here ---
http://www.cetusnews.com/news/Perspective-%7C-Why-does-Putin-want-control-Ukraine--Ask-Stalin-.SkgypvuBFw6Z.html
--- End quote ---
Putin controls 'part' of Ukraine. At a tremendous cost. But he has permanently driven a wedge between the Ukrainian and the Russian peoples. The only way Ukraine would ever ally with Russia is if the country was forced to through subjugation.
I would be interested in knowing, if anyone could provide the numbers - the economic output of the Donbas before the war and presently. And, the cost (or drain) on the Russian economy by Krim. Brent Crude is now at $57 a barrel. But the major oil producers are predicting 2018 as having a significant drop in prices again, with Brent Crude hovering around $45.
Russia mortgaged its economy in the oil sale to China. It continues on, with infrastructure and economic development suffering. At the same time, Putin continues to invest heavily in military spending, last week proclaiming that he had the best weapons in the world. Of course, one of the only true items of export, aside from Russian oil is Russian weapons. Quite honestly, my take is that the Israelis have the best military technology in the world, presently. Economic and efficient.
JayH:
The elephant in the room for all issues in Ukraine is Russia. The battle to get Russia out of Ukraine is ongoing -- and not just the battle for physical territory in eastern Ukraine and the Crimea.
Russia is intent on preventing Ukraine succeeding as a democracy .
Why Ukraine’s Next Revolution Won’t Be on the Streets
But the run-up to the 2019 elections will be troublesome. Russian meddling in Ukraine’s political system is growing. “I see a heightened crisis in Ukraine because [Poroshenko] has decided to take on [Dmytro] Firtash,” he said. Firtash has worked closely with the Kremlin. “There is a serious criminal investigation [into Firtash] by the general prosecutor. And [Firtash] is funneling serious money to political rivals to undermine Poroshenko.”
This is an extension of the Kremlin’s 2014 strategy designed to reverse the Revolution of Dignity and prevent it from spreading. “Moscow wants to create a neo-Russian republic in eastern and southern Ukraine as a '[blockage] to the Maidan,” he said.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/why-ukraine-s-next-revolution-won-t-be-on-the-streets
Brasscasing:
There ya go, Jay...
Canadian arms makers get OK to sell to Ukraine
..."The Liberal cabinet has given the green light for Canadian defence contractors to sell weapons to Ukraine in a watershed decision which a senior official of that country hopes will influence the Trump administration to follow suit.
The embattled eastern European country has been added to Canada's automatic firearms country control list."...
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-ukraine-weapons-1.4446891
Better late than never, I guess.
Whether it actually happens or not is a different story. The current federal government is notorious for saying one thing and doing another, but we'll see.
Brass
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