Ukraine-The Future

[Gator]

Here's an excerpt from an observer of Russian Military affairs.

Russia’s current policy in Ukraine is not just about geopolitical calculations regarding Ukraine’s economic ties with the EU versus the Eurasian Union, or even potential Ukrainian NATO membership. Instead, a main goal may be to strengthen President Vladimir Putin’s regime domestically by increasing patriotic attitudes among the Russian population.
 

 

BINGO!!!

Putin may be more benevolent than dictators such as Stalin, yet he is as corrupt as they come.  He has enriched his power base as well as his friends and  himself.   As with any case of rampant corruption, the general Russian population has suffered. 

If Putin were to lose his power base, he would spend many years in jail in the manner of  what he did to Mikhail Khodorkovsky.  Putin must stay in power, and thereby he is promoting Russian patriotism to build domestic support.   His power base and friends go along as Putin is the golden goose giving out golden eggs. 

[JayH]

My apologies--I lifted this--it is significant work.
Andrei Illarionov, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Vilnius, May 31st, 2014

Play video
Andrei Illarionov (Андрей Илларионов), Senior fellow at the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, Washington, DC. NATO Parliamentary Assembly, Spring session, Economics and?
01:10:15
Added on 4/06/2014
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 Andrei Illarionov, who was the chief economic adviser of Putin.
Illarionov also served as the president?s personal representative (sherpa) in the G-8  (G-7now, in fact).
He is one of Russia?s most brilliant advocates of an open society and democratic capitalism.
 Illarionov received his Ph.D. from St. Petersburg University in 1987.
Now he is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute?s Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity.

It doesn't mean I listen to all what he says without analizing it, and without any doubt that this is the highest truth; yet most of his comments and also political and economical predictions, seems quite reasonable and trustworthy- and most interesting.
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/


"First point. You may hear statements that this is ?the Ukrainian crisis? or that this is ?the crisis in Ukraine?. It is incorrect. It is neither ?the crisis in Ukraine?, nor ?the Ukrainian crisis?. This is not an internal affair of Ukraine. This is a war. This is the Russian-Ukrainian war. To be correct, this is the Mr Putin?s war against Ukraine. And this war is only an introductory chapter of a much larger event which can be and actually already has been called ?War?, ?World War?, ?the Fourth World War?. I?ll try to elaborate this later. It is not my choice of picking this particular term. It is the term that is being used by the Kremlin propaganda machine ? the Fourth World War being waged now by Russia against the rest of the world."

[lordtiberius]

Why isn't NATO doing more to secure their own security? Is NATO worthless?

[The Natural]

 

BINGO!!!

Putin may be more benevolent than dictators such as Stalin, yet he is as corrupt as they come.  He has enriched his power base as well as his friends and  himself.   As with any case of rampant corruption, the general Russian population has suffered. 

If Putin were to lose his power base, he would spend many years in jail in the manner of  what he did to Mikhail Khodorkovsky.  Putin must stay in power, and thereby he is promoting Russian patriotism to build domestic support.   His power base and friends go along as Putin is the golden goose giving out golden eggs.

I have a different take on this, dear Gator. I don't see Putin as a dictator, rather more as a strong personality that, yes, serve his own interests, but also is strongly patriotic and want to right the wrongs done by Jeltsin who delivered Russia almost free of charge to the oligarchs and western political and Financial interests.

Russians suffer? They have always suffered but my understanding is that they are now better of materially than ever before. Sure there are still poor People and there's inequality, but one cannot expect a country to Reach the excellence of the country of the indispensables like the US where everybody's a millionaire, in just a decade or so, can we?

[lordtiberius]

Talk about bleak . . .

If anyone is curious to know why Putin is really playing a weak hand, read this article:
http://m.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27800878

Re: Russians in Latvia - 40%

[Muzh]

I have a different take on this, dear Gator. I don't see Putin as a dictator, rather more as a strong personality that, yes, serve his own interests, but also is strongly patriotic and want to right the wrongs done by Jeltsin who delivered Russia almost free of charge to the oligarchs and western political and Financial interests.

Russians suffer? They have always suffered but my understanding is that they are now better of materially than ever before. Sure there are still poor People and there's inequality, but one cannot expect a country to Reach the excellence of the country of the indispensables like the US where everybody's a millionaire, in just a decade or so, can we?

Damn!!!


Almost verbatim from last night on History channel during a presentation of "The Third Reich - The Fall"


Just click on the link.

[Shadow]

Damn!!!


Almost verbatim from last night on History channel during a presentation of "The Third Reich - The Fall"


Just click on the link.

Hitler made his country grow by a policy that made the government spend far more than it earned in order to create jobs and raise welfare. As a result he needed to build one of the best (maybe the best) military and weapons of the time, and use them in order to obtain more resources to keep the debts within limits and economy from collapse.

Does that in any way sound familiar?

[lordtiberius]

Yeah, America is evil.  Blame America first, always and if you can't blame America, blame God.

[Shadow]

Yeah, America is evil.  Blame America first, always and if you can't blame America, blame God.

Why do you think America is evil?

[nikitin]

Continue the report about current Ukrainian situations. So, for now the situation is better than it was few month ago. But known that Russia want to escalate this. I know about the new arrivals of terrorists from Chechnya. Ukrainian military is doing all the best to resolve all of the captured districts. Also you can keep an eye about details here: http://en.news-channels.net . They explain situation from the three sides and provides three type of channels. Personally I pray and hope it will end soon.

[Muzh]

Continue the report about current Ukrainian situations. So, for now the situation is better than it was few month ago. But known that Russia want to escalate this. I know about the new arrivals of terrorists from Chechnya. Ukrainian military is doing all the best to resolve all of the captured districts. Also you can keep an eye about details here: http://en.news-channels.net . They explain situation from the three sides and provides three type of channels. Personally I pray and hope it will end soon.

Here's an interesting perspective from a Russian  scholar. If it's up to the Russians, they will freeze the Donbass and call it a day.

In practical terms, the U.S. government should encourage the Ukrainian government to pursue policies of reconciliation in the Donbas. While the conflict has been greatly exacerbated by Russian actions, it has an internal component that cannot be solved by military action alone. In an ideal world, Russia and the United States would work together to encourage this reconciliation, though I doubt that the current Russian government is genuinely interested in peace in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it would prefer to keep eastern Ukraine unstable as an object lesson to its own population of the dangers of popular protest leading to the overthrow of even a relatively unpopular government.
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[GQBlues]

Neither a good day, or news, for Ukraine today, as OSCE reports...

tsk, tsk, tsk 

[fathertime]

Neither a good day, or news, for Ukraine today, as OSCE reports...

tsk, tsk, tsk 

 Yes it appears it was a deadly day for the Ukrainian's today.  I don't think they are going to win this militarily, so they better get to the table and try to end the bloodshed, because that is THE ONLY WAY the fighting and deaths have a real hope of ending!   


 
 
http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-suffers-heavy-losses-in-counterattack-by-pro-russia-rebels-1408626401?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp
 
 
quote from article:
"Losses have mounted recently, adding more pressure on Kiev to seek a compromise at peace talks next week in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, where Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet face-to-face for the first time in two months."






 According to the article the two leaders will be meeting shortly...we shall see if they hammer out a deal this time that allows both sides to walk away with something positive.


Fathertime! 

[AC]

The high cost of trying to keep the economy of Crimea afloat:


"The two main pillars of Crimea’s economy, tourism and agriculture, have been slumping, especially since in the past, 70 percent of visitors to Crimea came from Ukraine. The crisis has effectively stemmed the flow of tourism."


http://imrussia.org/en/russia-and-the-world/790

[Muzh]

 Yes it appears it was a deadly day for the Ukrainian's today.  I don't think they are going to win this militarily, so they better get to the table and try to end the bloodshed, because that is THE ONLY WAY the fighting and deaths have a real hope of ending!   


 
 
http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-suffers-heavy-losses-in-counterattack-by-pro-russia-rebels-1408626401?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp
 
 
quote from article:
"Losses have mounted recently, adding more pressure on Kiev to seek a compromise at peace talks next week in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, where Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet face-to-face for the first time in two months."






 According to the article the two leaders will be meeting shortly...we shall see if they hammer out a deal this time that allows both sides to walk away with something positive.


Fathertime!

Yo, Mr. WinWin, maybe the heavy loses are attributed to some foreign sources.


Also notice it is the same news source you cited.


Your nose cannot be that long.

[JohnDearGreen]

maybe the heavy loses are attributed to some foreign sources.

As I read, three battalions were supposed to move in toward Donetsk.  Two of them chickened out and stayed back, resulting in major losses to the third.   Ukraine news sites seem to avoid reporting some of the bad news.

[Boethius]

 Yes it appears it was a deadly day for the Ukrainian's today.  I don't think they are going to win this militarily, so they better get to the table and try to end the bloodshed, because that is THE ONLY WAY the fighting and deaths have a real hope of ending!   


 
 
http://online.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-suffers-heavy-losses-in-counterattack-by-pro-russia-rebels-1408626401?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp
 
 
quote from article:
"Losses have mounted recently, adding more pressure on Kiev to seek a compromise at peace talks next week in the Belarusian capital of Minsk, where Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Russian leader Vladimir Putin are scheduled to meet face-to-face for the first time in two months."






 According to the article the two leaders will be meeting shortly...we shall see if they hammer out a deal this time that allows both sides to walk away with something positive.




Fathertime!

The Ukrainian army has captured almost all of the territory the Muscovite supported rebels held.  So, unless Moscow starts rearming the terrorists, Ukraine will, in fact, restore its territory.


The issue will be reconciliation and rebuilding these areas after the fact, 


On a positive note, Ukraine's trade balance is in surplus, which was unexpected after Russia banned most Ukrainian products.

[jone]

Don't be too impressed with a positive balance of trade.  Not too much is being imported to Ukraine.  With the currency trading so poorly, nothing of value can be purchased.

[lordtiberius]

What you say is true but such currency conditions make it ideal for manufacturing and for the crazy brave tourism

[fathertime]

The words ALMOST and UNLESS loom very large in your statements. I really don't see this ending unless Russia wants it to end. When the two leaders meet this week maybe they can find a solution this time that both countries will decide to live with.

Fathertime!


The Ukrainian army has captured almost all of the territory the Muscovite supported rebels held.  So, unless Moscow starts rearming the terrorists, Ukraine will, in fact, restore its territory.


The issue will be reconciliation and rebuilding these areas after the fact, 


On a positive note, Ukraine's trade balance is in surplus, which was unexpected after Russia banned most Ukrainian products.

[Boethius]

Not the future of Ukraine, but of the terrorist controlled regions -


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/europe/rebels-in-eastern-ukraine-dream-of-reviving-soviet-heyday.html?_r=0


I am not at all surprised by the nostalgia for the past, or the neanderthal thinking (and I use the term "thinking" in its broadest sense) of the terrorists or their supporters.

[AC]

Not the future of Ukraine, but of the terrorist controlled regions -


http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/05/world/europe/rebels-in-eastern-ukraine-dream-of-reviving-soviet-heyday.html?_r=0


I am not at all surprised by the nostalgia for the past, or the neanderthal thinking (and I use the term "thinking" in its broadest sense) of the terrorists or their supporters.

Considering that some if not many of these so called "separatists" are war criminals from Chechnya, that's an excellent way to describe it.

[lordtiberius]

Anyone in contact with people in the occupied zones?

[JayH]

This is one of the more difficult areas ( another one) to deal with. On the surface it seems anti -democratic in principle-- but look at a few example of why such a law is needed.
When Russia invaded Crimea-the military was paralysed by mixed loyalties. The security forces have leaked like a sieve thru confused allegiances.Police forces failed to respond thru confusion.It goes on and on thru the entire Ukrainian system.It in fact--reflected the mixed emotions many had in relation to Russia.
In the last year the major shift to Ukrainian nationalism was created,followed and promoted by those NOT in the system ( by & large)-- and those that demanded change. I do not see the law as anti-Russian as such-- but as  a means of removing those who are not prepared to give Ukraine absolute  unequivocal loyalty .
Also up to be examined--is the past corrupt practices of the regime and their servants.
The message is clear in the legislation-things will change.To often I keep hearing here about the past-- take notice of what the new broom is attempting to do.


Ukraine could sack up to million officials with ties to Russian past


Kiev (AFP) - Ukraine's president approved a disputed anti-graft measure on Thursday that could see up to a million civil servants with alleged links to past Soviet or pro-Russian governments immediately sacked.

The so-called "lustration law" follows the example of other eastern European nations that broke free of decades of Moscow's domination at the end of the Cold War.

It was also a rallying cry of the protests that convulsed Kiev last winter and led to the ouster of pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych and a secretive band of Ukrainian tycoons.

The law removes anyone who held a federal or regional government position for more than a year under Yanukovych, who is now in self-imposed exile in Russia.

It also sets up a special commission to investigate judges and law enforcement agents suspected of living lavish lifestyles on humble government wages.

Another provision prevents anyone unable to explain their sources of income or assets from holding office for five to 10 years.

View galleryUkrainian President Petro Poroshenko gestures as he …
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko gestures as he answers questions during a press conference in K …
Lawmakers' initial failure to adopt the legislation last month sparked violent protests outside parliament that engulfed the building in the black smoke of burning tyres and brought riot police out on the streets.

The bill itself says it was drafted to help "restore trust in the authorities and create a new system of government that corresponds to European standards".

"This is a historic day for Ukraine," President Petro Poroshenko posted on his Facebook account.

"The state machine will be cleansed. Glory to Ukraine!"

- Way to settle scores? -

View galleryPro-Russian separatist soldiers take a break in Donetsk, …
Pro-Russian separatist soldiers take a break in Donetsk, where fighting continues between Ukrainian  …
But the legislation has been bitterly fought by lawmakers representing Russian-speaking eastern regions -- the powerbase of the former regime and now partially controlled by separatist rebels.

Its legality has also been questioned by the Council of Europe and business leaders who fear it will lead to a damaging exodus of competent bureaucrats.

Even the president's own special representative on children's issues complained that it "violates basic rights and freedoms of citizens, is anti-constitutional and does not correspond to European judicial procedures or standards."

"It provides a way to settle scores with your (political) opponents," children's ombudsman Yuriy Pavlenko wrote on his Facebook account.

Other clauses in the law bar anyone found guilty of backing separatist causes and anyone who worked as a prosecutor or held a top office when state agents shot dead nearly 100 protesters during the Kiev unrest.

View galleryMembers of a pro-Ukrainian regiment near Mariupol city, …
Members of a pro-Ukrainian regiment near Mariupol city, October 9, 2014. The conflict has created hu …
The commission can additionally probe civil servants' links to the Soviet-era secret service and Communist Party.

The measures have already prompted the resignation of two top finance and economy ministry officials who are respected by the business community but were hired during Yanukovych's 2010-2014 presidency.

A succession of recent governments have been riven by squabbles and business clan rivalries that stalled the adoption of crucial economic restructuring measures and left the country nearly bankrupt and dependent on foreign help.

Yanukovych and his allies were accused of persecuting their predecessors and jailing former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko for political reasons.

Communist Party leader Petro Symonenko -- his post-Soviet group facing a nationwide ban in court -- said the law "subjects almost any civil servant to repression".
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-could-sack-million-officials-ties-russian-past-231947924.html

[Shadow]

The funny thing is that they seem to be doing what they accuse others of.
Replacing anyone who does not follow the ideology of the government does seem a bit Stalinistic.