The Struggle For Ukraine

[Chelseaboy]

Local sources inform that there were two Ukrainian rocket attacks this morning on an orc military base ,used by Rosgvardia,in Kherson on Pestylia street.


The first hit was at 5am,followed by another at 10am.


The orcs are screaming from under the rubble according to locals.

[Boethius]

An interesting article-

http://english.nv.ua/opinion/can-ukraine-win-ukraine-news-russia-war-against-ukraine-opinion-50255458.html

[2tallbill]

Interesting video about how the Ukrainians have been hitting the ammunition
depot's

[BC]

2tall,

Precision weapons have beneficial side effects.

We now see high-value targets being destroyed like ammunition storage areas. Next in line (if not already) will be command and control structures along with communications.

For RU soldiers on the ground, this is discouraging, but they are still able to roam the occupied areas pretty much freely.  This will change, however, as more and more high-accuracy weapons enter UA, allowing smaller units to be targeted within the occupied areas.  They will start to feel like sitting ducks.  The psychological effect will be devastating as more troop-level units get picked off relatively quickly and with minimal risk to UA forces.

It is pretty interesting to see how all this is evolving.  Even allowing RU to occupy some territory can be to UA's advantage.  RU artillery is only effective for short distances.  If pushed back beyond their targeting range by HIMARS and other very accurate weapons, they rapidly lose their value.

Intel, accuracy, and logistics - as these capabilities build on the UA side, offensive action is more feasible and effective, enough to contain RU and take back control over some areas, even up to 50 km from the RU border before winter hits.

At the same time, more anti-aircraft/drone/missile defenses are being added to the mix, further reducing the possibility of RU advances.

If the west can keep up the pace supplying UA, I suspect things may stabilize into a stalemate at near 2014 status quo towards the end of the year.

[2tallbill]

For RU soldiers on the ground, this is discouraging, but they are still able to roam the occupied areas pretty much freely.

When they try to stage fuel and ammunition in forward occupied areas
they are doing so in sight of people who don't love them or want them
to succeed.

Is it a huge surprise that the Ukraine artillery team tends to know
where the fuel and ammunition are stored? I would think that Team
Russia would prefer keep those locations undisclosed.

[krimster2]

99% of Russia’s territorial gains came from the first week of the war
in 4.5 months Russia has as many KIAs as the US had during three years of korea

Russian economy and standard of living will shrink by 8% per yr, for every year the war and sanctions go on

who are the winners

WE ARE!!!

let Russia bleed its military and economy and reap a Ukrainian wasteland as its reward
Ukraine already has over a 750 billion dollar repair bill
who’s gonna pay?

Meanwhile, we got hundreds of billions of Russian money
that we can hand out to the corporations who lost their Russian assets from sanctions
Exxon/Mobile will get at LEAST a BILLION
this connection to Russia was WHY the President of Exxon/Mobile
became Trump’s first sec of state
Rex Tillerson, in the first place, the “biggest deal” in WORLD HISTORY
and it evaporated!!!

bottom line, totally in our interests to do EXACTLY just as we’re doing
feeding the opposite side, just ENOUGH to maintain the stalemate
and let EACH SIDE bleed the OTHER as much as possible
without ANY military loss risk for our side

side benefit, thriving arms industry

THIS is the optimal strategy FOR US to pursue....
it sure sucks to be A Ukrainian or Russian though

[JohnDearGreen]

Is it a huge surprise that the Ukraine artillery team tends to know
where the fuel and ammunition are stored? I would think that Team
Russia would prefer keep those locations undisclosed.

In Girkins' words:

The enemy continues to "nightmare" the rear depots and command posts of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Armed Forces of the LDNR. Yesterday, another warehouse was destroyed in Shakhtyorsk (it is still burning and detonating, judging by the reports).In most cases - the successes of an enemy of this kind are based on the OUTSTANDING sloppiness of the COMMAND - who did not consider it necessary to disguise or elementary security measures. Warehouses were created without any regard for the enemy's space and air reconnaissance, crowded, without the construction of protective structures (and / or the use of numerous existing ones) - i.e. "How convenient, tyap-blunder."Of course, to justify our military, we can say that they "did not expect the NVO to go into war." But the fact that in the fifth month of the war in the units and subunits of the RF Armed Forces, even elementary camouflage nets are almost completely absent (whereas they are in many units of the LDNR Armed Forces supplied by volunteers) - only it deserves to be brought to the military tribunal of the entire leadership of the Logistics Service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

[Chelseaboy]

Another orc ammo depot hit in the early hours of this morning ..this one at Nova Kakhovka,Kherson oblast.


Massive  secondary explosions and after-shocks have ensued.


A previous strike on Kherson,at Pestylia street,i posted about on here two days ago, resulted in more than 150 orcs being killed,including another General.


A large white container lorry,with 200 painted on it's side,was photographed taking the bodies away.


In response ,with panic-stricken desperation to improve their troops morale, the orcs claim to have blown up a large Ukrainian ammo depot with three cruise missiles in Radushne that held 155 mm artillery shells and HIMARS rockets.


A video of the aftermath of the strike shows no large clouds of black smoke and there are no secondary explosions at all...which knowing the orcs probably means they hit a school or shopping mall instead..their normal tactic.


Reminds me of when the orcs put out a video claiming that they'd destroyed two parked HIMARS,when in actuality the missile missed it's target,if indeed they were HIMARS, and hit a tree instead 

[Chelseaboy]

Apparently this is from the Russian separatists Telegram .


"There was an explosion in Kherson.They used HIMARS.There's nothing that can be done about it ? And there's only 8 HIMARS and they've already fucked us up.What'll happen next ? "


Apparently there is absolute mayhem and shock among Russian military bloggers and propagandists.


Speaking of which rwd123 has gone a bit quiet.


No wonder Putler has called his Kremlin Duma back from their just started holidays for an emergency meeting on 15th July.


With their economy hurtling into the abyss and their military facing defeat,If they have any sense they'll capitulate .

[Chelseaboy]

Another orc ammo depo hit today..now cooking off nicely with multiple detonations.


This one was at the DZTO Plant ,petrovsky district,Donetsk.

[Trenchcoat]

Apparently this is from the Russian separatists Telegram .


"There was an explosion in Kherson.They used HIMARS.There's nothing that can be done about it ? And there's only 8 HIMARS and they've already fucked us up.What'll happen next ? "


Apparently there is absolute mayhem and shock among Russian military bloggers and propagandists.


Speaking of which rwd123 has gone a bit quiet.


No wonder Putler has called his Kremlin Duma back from their just started holidays for an emergency meeting on 15th July.


With their economy hurtling into the abyss and their military facing defeat,If they have any sense they'll capitulate .

Apparently Russia may be trying to counter by buying drones from Iran:

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/iran-russia-drones-ukraine-war-white-house-b1011690.html

Looks like it may just be a stop gap tactic to try and find a way to fill the gap as its own artillery and armaments get destroyed. Theoretically Russia has a lot of men to call upon so more than Ukraine. Just a case of whether they are willing to turn up and how hard Russia will push to try to get them to the front. So at the moment its a bit unknown how much Russia has left in the tank. However with HIMARS and the rest now hitting them hard I reckon it's going to get really hard for Russia to advance much more. That's real good news of course so just a question if Russia will start getting exhausted of willing men and armaments soon and fold in.

[Chelseaboy]

Another HIMAR strike tonight,on Luhansk an impressive 85+km behind the front line.


Multiple detonations kicking-off in the blaze,so presumably yet another orc ammo depot.

[Trenchcoat]

Another HIMAR strike tonight,on Luhansk an impressive 85+km behind the front line.


Multiple detonations kicking-off in the blaze,so presumably yet another orc ammo depot.

That's great news CB, looks like the HIMARS are already having a big impact on Russia's ability to fight in Ukraine as this article demonstrates:

http://gagadget.com/en/war/146432-himars-in-action-russians-have-dramatically-reduced-the-number-of-shelling-due-to-the-loss-of-ammunition-depots/

So makes sense to hit all their ammunition depots as without ammunition their artillery etc are useless, far quicker and easier than taking out all their artillery pieces one by one so a good strategy. If this momentum is kept up then they'll likely be a big turn around with the Orcs falling back in the coming days & weeks I reckon.

[2tallbill]

Looks like it may just be a stop gap tactic to try and find a way to fill the gap as its own artillery and armaments get destroyed. Theoretically Russia has a lot of men to call upon so more than Ukraine. Just a case of whether they are willing to turn up and how hard Russia will push to try to get them to the front. So at the moment its a bit unknown how much Russia has left in the tank. However with HIMARS and the rest now hitting them hard I reckon it's going to get really hard for Russia to advance much more. That's real good news of course so just a question if Russia will start getting exhausted of willing men and armaments soon and fold in.

They have 6 HIMARS to cover an area of several hundred miles. They need
at least a hundred more, preferably 300 more of them. They are getting the
short range rockets because the West is afraid to give them the long legged
stuff.

[ML]

They have 6 HIMARS to cover an area of several hundred miles. They need
at least a hundred more, preferably 300 more of them. They are getting the
short range rockets because the West is afraid to give them the long legged
stuff.

Probably a little bit of software 'reprogramming' and those same rockets will travel 300 miles.

Then, when Russia screams, it can be said that "Russia bombed Russian areas themselves."  I think we have heard similar stories before.

[BC]

They have 6 HIMARS to cover an area of several hundred miles.

Thought was 8 so far.  Soon to be 12, and training is ongoing for more.

A few M270's as well
http://mil.in.ua/en/news/the-united-kingdom-and-norway-agreed-to-transfer-the-m270-mlrs-to-ukraine/

[Chelseaboy]

The Ukrainian Special Unit "Kraken " ARE something special.


They use Artillery and special ops to go behind enemy lines.


I've seen a few videos of them in action....and the orcs are terrified of them.


There's some drone footage on the latest one taken three days ago in Bilohorivka,Luhansk region where the orcs see them and just literally run away.


Some orcs are captured and i'm surprised are kept alive,but i guess they're needed for POW exchanges.


This video can be seen on BlueSauron@Blue_Sauron,which is on Twitter.

[Trenchcoat]

bottom line, totally in our interests to do EXACTLY just as we’re doing
feeding the opposite side, just ENOUGH to maintain the stalemate
and let EACH SIDE bleed the OTHER as much as possible
without ANY military loss risk for our side

side benefit, thriving arms industry

THIS is the optimal strategy FOR US to pursue....
it sure sucks to be A Ukrainian or Russian though

This I totally agree with in terms of what's happening and thought it would be the case from day 1. It's a nasty thing to do but it's not my doing and so far as stopping Russia is concerned, likely necessary. I do tend to see though that the west is playing a tactical game, drawing it out like you say by just giving Ukraine enough weapons to counter, Russia gets weakened incredibly for many years if not decades to come, Ukraine, an unfortunate pawn in this game.

End result for Russia is a smashed economy that's too weak to produce any armaments or sustain an army of any note. Most of its Soviet armaments destroyed and the rest too rusting & unreliable getting hopelessly obsolete and down trodden.

Ukraine meanwhile will be a very dirt poor nation, back to 90s post break up USSR times if not worse. EU looks like it may already be backtracking on aid package and I wouldn't expect anything from the EU they will wash their hands of any idea of Ukraine joining them when they see the state of the country at the end of all of this.

Like you say Krim the ones gaining the most out of all of this are the arms manufacturers & dealers. It's where those in power will have a hand in. All of the free stuff we've been sending Ukraine will just be stuff that will have sat around or not seen any conflict anyway - it's stuff paying around in military camps that doesn't need replacing if economically not wished to do so.

Anyhow both Ukraine & Russia are locked in now for the duration however long that will be. Russia has an almost inexhaustible amount of cannon fodder to throw at Ukraine and is looking to counter the HIMARS by using drones. The HIMARS already have done a lot of their job taking out ammunition dumps that will suck on Russia's resources and ability to advance further. Both are fighting over a piece of land that neither will give up so they'll be locked in at it until one side eventually has no choice but to concede, that could take quite some time.

In the meantime it's the unfortunate innocent folk that suffer and it truly is them I feel sorry for particularly Ukrainian civilians and those called into the armies to lose their lives as nothing but pawns in the game. Russia for sure has made a particularly bone headed decision to invade Ukraine and it's one they are going to come to regret I reckon even if they did end up taking Ukraine like you say they would just be taking an economically burdensome economic wasteland.

[LAman]

They have 6 HIMARS………….

Wrong, Ukraine has 8 HIMARS, and by end of month 4 more as BC mentioned.
Anyway, what is more important is type of rocket supplied. US is sending the
M 30-31 rockets. Since these rockets can be fired from HIMARS or M270 systems
there are much more systems than thought of. If a/the ATacMC rocket is sent then the bridge is history.
I found it interesting that Russia is finding it hard to recognize the HIMAR rocket coming since it’s speed is close to a grad missile.

[BC]

LAman,

Probably not opportune to supply ATACMS.

http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/mgm-140-family.jpg

Aside from being long-range, cluster munitions are out, and BAT is good for large supply lines, etc.  With both sides using much of the same equipment, may be tough to discriminate. Would have been great for those long columns in the early part of the war, but I doubt such will be forthcoming with RU having learned what happens when they do such.

I'd prefer more air/anti-missile defense, and I believe such is in the works already.

btw I'm not an expert on this stuff, and just applying some logical thinking.

I am quite confident type and amount of equipment being sent are addressing the need.

[Chelseaboy]

Ukrainian Intelligence says the orcs have used 70% of their stock of high precision missiles..


No high precision missiles means no Nukes.



So either the orcs stop firing them into Ukrainian shopping malls ,schools and apartment blocks or they'll have run out in two months and Ukraine and NATO can just march into Moscow,drag Putler and his Duma out of the Kremlin and throw them all into the Red Square followed by giving them a good kicking...making sure the whole World see's what happens to despots.

[BC]

Chelseaboy,

They have already fired a ton of 'em, that's for sure.

30% still represents a significant amount.

[RussianWomenOnly]

Russia needs to be stopped here and now. 

[Chelseaboy]

Chelseaboy,

They have already fired a ton of 'em, that's for sure.

30% still represents a significant amount.

Well IF Ukrainian intelligence is correct the orcs have used up  14% of them per month so, like i said ,if they continue using them up at the same rate they'll have none left in two months time.


I'm sure the Ukrainians will find good use of the orc filtration camps for Putler and his Duma 

[ML]

I think there is a lot of over optimism here.

I suspect the Russians have ability to produce a lot of new missiles, tanks and all sorts of military equipment.

Sure I understand the bit about chips being embargoed, but I think they have a lot of those in inventory also.

Remember that in WWII the Russians (Soviets) moved entire plants over to the Urals and beyond to continue production.

I am sure they know how to solve current production problems also.