More Bad News for Russia

[AC]

John McCain sums up the Ukraine situation...

 “I believe that the German chancellor and the president of France legitimized for the first time in 70 years the dismemberment of a country in Europe. It's shameful,” McCain said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “Vladimir Putin has not paid any price. Even the cease-fire was violated.”

“This is a shameful chapter. I'm ashamed of my country, I'm ashamed of my president, and I'm ashamed of myself that I haven't done more to help these people,” he added. “It is really, really heartbreaking.”

“Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine not to be part of Europe. And he is succeeding in doing so. He's put enormous pressure on the Baltics, not to mention Moldova and continued occupation of Georgia as well. This is really a dark chapter in the history of our alliance.”

http://thehill.com/policy/defense/233442-mccain-im-ashamed-of-my-country

Pretty well sums up my feelings towards Canada (and it's allies) as well.

Shame on us all.

Brass

Very good summary of what many of us feel.  I'm not ashamed of my country because I know if we had a leader in the White House Ukraine would have been armed to the teeth at least six months ago.  I am deeply ashamed of my "President" and I wonder what the US and the World did to deserve such a charlatan.

I don't think you should be at all ashamed of Canada because I suspect the Canadian people as a whole want Ukraine to be helped out.

I am extremely disappointed about the lack of leadership in Europe and I no longer hold Merkel in high regard.  I especially wonder why the Prime Minister of the UK is being silent right now as the UK is a signatory to the BM.

In your post above you stated the world can pay now or pay later.  It always seems to pan out this way but Obama doesn't seem to want to change his "legacy" for peace.  Unless he suddenly grows a pair.

[Faux Pas]

Nukes are not an option for Putin or Russia. He cannot win a preemptive strategic attack and if he/Russia were to deploy a tactical nuke the response would be the same.

Putin has quickly went from possible dictator to rabid mad dog status. Is he crazy enough to launch one is the question you should be asking yourself. If that answer is yes even for a second, "Houston, we have a problem". Nobody will win in the event of an attack preemptive  or not either from Russia or the U.S. It's truly doomsday. Putin must be dealt with delicately but, with might. It's all he will respond to. I personally think he will not hesitate to over play his hand.

I don't follow you here.  It's game over for Putin?  Or game over for the World?  Who is it game over for?

Not than any of us want Nuclear war but I believe the US is in a much better position to "win" that confrontation.

I can see Moscow smoldering in ruins right now and 20% of the Russian population gone forever.

Game over for everybody. One missile detected from either East or West and hundreds or thousands of them will be raining down on both continents. Once the first one flies and whether you're sending it or receiving it, you'd better be going for broke and send all you have

[JayH]

IMHO, the only card the U.S. can play at this point is to arm Ukraine to the teeth and assist any country willing to help Ukraine. U.S. boots on the ground even through NATO or the UN isn't an option. Any military confrontation directly between the U.S. and Russia will still bring the world to the brink. I'm not willing to risk that, are you?

Nukes are not an option for Putin or Russia. He cannot win a preemptive strategic attack and if he/Russia were to deploy a tactical nuke the response would be the same.

Exactly, arm Ukraine to the teeth and use contractors to train them or partner countries like Canada, Australia or the UK.

I'm of the opinion we're already in a "pay now or pay later" situation. Direct confrontation is inevitable, whether U.S. or NATO. If not stopped now sooner or later Putin will go all in on either Ukraine or some other FSU country.

I doubt anything will happen until Washington has a new administration though. Obama's trying desperately to finish his term without becoming involved in a major European war.

A lot of people are going to die while he tries to save what's left of his presidency and legacy.

“Some say Ukraine cannot defeat Russia militarily. That is the wrong question. The right question is: If we help Ukrainians increase the military cost to the Russian forces that have invaded their country, how long can Putin sustain a war that he tells his people is not happening?” McCain said during the same conference."

http://www.stripes.com/news/us-inching-toward-sending-arms-to-ukraine-1.331182

This has always been the 'right question'. Further, Ukraine has not been the pushover Putin assumed it was going to be (no thanks to the EU, NATO or the US). Ukraine may well end up being Putin's Afghanistan.

Brass

Brass makes all the right points. The risk is in not doing enough NOW.
As Brass says-- do something now or pay for that inaction later. The actions now need to be decisive and substantial.
So to answer FP's question-- any hint of not being completely committed here by the US will incite Putin-- so my answer is in theory -yes. Not making it clear to Putin will send the wrong message-so making it really clear the gloves are right off is important-as I said-- bully the bully.

[Chelseaboy]

Cameron has a general election to worry about in May..so it's doubtful he wants to get too involved in Ukraine matters right now.

When questioned recently about the Russian bombers buzzing the UK,his feeble response was to say the bombers weren't actually in UK airspace,and our Typhoons saw them off anyway.

The fact that Putler is being aggressive toward the UK,testing our defenses while we meekly accept it, seems to have passed him by.

Still, he's proud to have given the go-ahead to gay marriages in the UK..no wonder Putler gives us the finger, he probably considers us as a bunch of soft wimps there for the taking....and certainly no threat to him.

[AC]

Putin has quickly went from possible dictator to rabid mad dog status. Is he crazy enough to launch one is the question you should be asking yourself. If that answer is yes even for a second, "Houston, we have a problem". Nobody will win in the event of an attack preemptive  or not either from Russia or the U.S. It's truly doomsday. Putin must be dealt with delicately but, with might. It's all he will respond to. I personally think he will not hesitate to over play his hand.

Game over for everybody. One missile detected from either East or West and hundreds or thousands of them will be raining down on both continents. Once the first one flies and whether you're sending it or receiving it, you'd better be going for broke and send all you have

I suppose I am under the impression that the USA is capable of shooting down Russian nukes before they reach the American continent.

Russia most definitely does not have that capability.  Would one or two Russian nukes slip through?  Well I really don't know and I doubt if any of us normal people do.  But I am banking on American superiority in this regard.

IIRC it was poster Brasscasing who raised the issue that Russia's nukes are not as capable as Putin's saber rattling.

Certainly if only one got through it would be an epic catastrophe for the city hit, but as we know from WWII even a small island nation like Japan can eventually get back to normal and those outside the blast area are often not at all affected.

Some might think it "crazy" to speculate but we are dealing with a "man" who keeps posturing so I'm sure our war guys at the Pentagon have played out all sorts of scenarios.

[AC]

Still, he's proud to have given the go-ahead to gay marriages in the UK..no wonder Putler gives us the finger, he probably considers us as a bunch of soft wimps there for the taking....and certainly no threat to him.

Well he's deeply deeply wrong and because he's an arrogant fool he's going to find out the hard way.

Look for a military confrontation in 2017 and when it's Canada, the British and the USA against that foolish little tyrant he's going to commit suicide in a bunker to avoid being hung by a wire by his own people.

This is the confrontation he really wants with the West and in due time he's going to get it.

[southernX]

Nukes are not an option for Putin or Russia. He cannot win a preemptive strategic attack and if he/Russia were to deploy a tactical nuke the response would be the same.

Exactly, arm Ukraine to the teeth and use contractors to train them or partner countries like Canada, Australia or the UK.

I'm of the opinion we're already in a "pay now or pay later" situation. Direct confrontation is inevitable, whether U.S. or NATO. If not stopped now sooner or later Putin will go all in on either Ukraine or some other FSU country.

I doubt anything will happen until Washington has a new administration though. Obama's trying desperately to finish his term without becoming involved in a major European war.

A lot of people are going to die while he tries to save what's left of his presidency and legacy.

“Some say Ukraine cannot defeat Russia militarily. That is the wrong question. The right question is: If we help Ukrainians increase the military cost to the Russian forces that have invaded their country, how long can Putin sustain a war that he tells his people is not happening?” McCain said during the same conference."

http://www.stripes.com/news/us-inching-toward-sending-arms-to-ukraine-1.331182

This has always been the 'right question'. Further, Ukraine has not been the pushover Putin assumed it was going to be (no thanks to the EU, NATO or the US). Ukraine may well end up being Putin's Afghanistan.

Brass

brass , well written , i totally agree especially with the pay now or pay later scenario,

as much as people might not want to admit it , we will be asked to pay at some time , if we wish to keep mr putin under control

it will be less the sooner we tackle the problem imho ,
if putin is alowed to keep growing his military , the cost to us all will be much higher
 
SX

[lordtiberius]

Good words everyone.

How should we react to Putin's nuke threats? 

Thank you in advance.

[AkMike]

How should we react to Putin's nuke threats? 

 Minsk III, IV, V VI VII ect.

[southernX]

Minsk III, IV, V VI VII ect.

mike is that how we should react ??or how we will react ??

id bloody well hope it wont go to a minsk mark III & some decisisve action was taken much sooner to help ukraine
SX

[lordtiberius]

Minsk III, IV, V VI VII ect.

Given this year's crop of leaders . . . I have to agree.

The only thing I will say at the expense of being a propaganda hype man is that Chechens won the First Chechen War using outdated weapons by turning Grozny into a cauldron. . . . but that maybe wishful thinking.  All I have is my prayers

[AkMike]

SX, You know as well as I do that this isn't the way it should be handled but myopic batch of wannabe's in the leadership role, I'm not dismissing this.

 

[AC]

SX, You know as well as I do that this isn't the way it should be handled but myopic batch of wannabe's in the leadership role, I'm not dismissing this.

Yep.  +1.

[fathertime]

I just so happened to be browsing the internet this morning and I noticed the Ruble was around 63 to the dollar and the Ukrainian currency has jumped  all the way up to 32.5...a jump over over 4 times it rate as of 13 months ago.


Fathertime!   

[Brasscasing]

Putin has quickly went from possible dictator to rabid mad dog status. Is he crazy enough to launch one is the question you should be asking yourself. If that answer is yes even for a second, "Houston, we have a problem". Nobody will win in the event of an attack preemptive  or not either from Russia or the U.S. It's truly doomsday. Putin must be dealt with delicately but, with might. It's all he will respond to. I personally think he will not hesitate to over play his hand.

It's more along the lines of 'ambition' vs. 'ability' to my thinking. If Putin thought he could win a nuclear exchange he'd already be overtly threatening the civilized world with armageddon instead of just veiled references to not messing with Russia because it's got nucs.

However, should the U.S. or NATO ever find itself occupying Russian soil then I'd say the risk of his deploying, or over playing his hand as you worded it, would increase exponentially.

Your point is taken though. When dealing with Moscow's mad dog 'crazy' should never be discounted.

Brass

[lordtiberius]

How reliable is his nuclear arsenal?

[Photo Guy]

If 10% of a nuclear arsenal is effective, that's enough for complete disaster.

“The Americans are trying to draw the Russian Federation into an interstate military conflict, to achieve regime change through the events in Ukraine and to ultimately dismember our country,” said Nikolai Patrushev, who heads the Kremlin’s security council.'

What does this mean? I'm remembering when Putin stated that he 'respects' the elections of Ukraine. ...so just another Putin Lie? And the biggest lie continues- 'Russia does not have military in Ukraine'. This lie makes Putin look insane. An insane person with nuclear missiles? The phrase, 'dismember our country'? Does that refer to Russia or Ukraine? Does Putin think Ukraine IS Russia? If Ukraine is its own country, then ironically, Putin is dismembering Ukraine in Donbas and Crimea.

article here:
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-tensions-hit-boiling-point-111500889.html

[AkMike]

(Gee who supplies arms to the UAE?  Deniability factor !)

Poroshenko agrees on supply of UAE weapons to Ukraine

Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to cooperate in the supply of weapons and military equipment, advisor to the Interior Ministry Anton Herashchenko wrote on his Facebook page on Tuesday.

According to Herashchenko, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, Colonel-General Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

"During the meeting the parties agreed to cooperate with the United Arab Emirates in the supply of certain weapons and military equipment to Ukraine," Herashchenko said.

"However, the types and volumes of these supplies will not be disclosed yet," he said.

"However, it is worth noting that the Arabs, unlike the Europeans and Americans, are not afraid of Putin’s threats to unleash a third world war in the case of supplies of arms and military equipment being made to Ukraine," Herashchenko said.


Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1047968-poroshenko-agrees-on-supply-of-uae-weapons.html

[Brasscasing]

How reliable is his nuclear arsenal?

Depends on how much tritium Russia's been able to acquire/produce.

You won't read about it but it's my opinion that's why Putin was in India at the end of last year and why Obama was right behind him.

Again my opinion however India produces tritium and the U.S. wanted to make sure the India/Russia deal didn't include that particular isotope.

Brass

[AkMike]

Moody's lowered the ratings of a number of financial institutions Russia

The rating agency Moody's downgraded the ratings of some of the largest financial institutions in Russia. The decision concerns Sberbank, VTB , Gazprombank, Russian Agricultural Bank, HMLA, Vnesheconombank and Alfa Bank.

Long-term ratings of Sberbank and VTB Bank in the national currency reduced from Baa3 to Ba1, in foreign currency - from Ba1 to Ba2.

Long-term ratings of Gazprombank, Russian Agricultural Bank and Alpha Bank in national and foreign currencies dropped from Ba1 to Ba2. Long-term ratings of VEB and HMLA reduced from Baa3 to Ba1.
http://mignews.com.ua/sobitiya/inworld/4943673.html

[Brasscasing]

(Gee who supplies arms to the UAE?  Deniability factor !)

Poroshenko agrees on supply of UAE weapons to Ukraine

Ukraine and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to cooperate in the supply of weapons and military equipment, advisor to the Interior Ministry Anton Herashchenko wrote on his Facebook page on Tuesday.

According to Herashchenko, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko met with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, Colonel-General Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

"During the meeting the parties agreed to cooperate with the United Arab Emirates in the supply of certain weapons and military equipment to Ukraine," Herashchenko said.

"However, the types and volumes of these supplies will not be disclosed yet," he said.

"However, it is worth noting that the Arabs, unlike the Europeans and Americans, are not afraid of Putin’s threats to unleash a third world war in the case of supplies of arms and military equipment being made to Ukraine," Herashchenko said.


Read more on UNIAN: http://www.unian.info/politics/1047968-poroshenko-agrees-on-supply-of-uae-weapons.html

Great news! Finally, a country willing to assist with real aid.

Putin will be displeased. I wonder how long it'll take for Merkel and Hollande to book their flights to Abu Dhabi...

More from the WSJ...

Ukraine to Buy ‘Defensive’ Weapons in U.A.E., President Says

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-president-meets-u-a-e-officials-to-secure-weapons-purchase-1424788248

Brass

[Muzh]

I suppose I am under the impression that the USA is capable of shooting down Russian nukes before they reach the American continent.

This is exactly what a lot of Neocons believe.


Exactly the same as Saddam had WMD, the Iraqis were going to receive the Americans with open arms, and Iraq's oil revenues were going to pay for Ws little excursion in the middle east.

[Muzh]

Great news! Finally, a country willing to assist with real aid.

Putin will be displeased. I wonder how long it'll take for Merkel and Hollande to book their flights to Abu Dhabi...

More from the WSJ...

Ukraine to Buy ‘Defensive’ Weapons in U.A.E., President Says

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-president-meets-u-a-e-officials-to-secure-weapons-purchase-1424788248

Brass

Agree.


Finally, the US a friendly nation like the UAE is supplying weapons to Ukraine. 


Brass, just like the oil glut and the precipitous drop in the price of crude by those "Saudis."

[Brasscasing]

Agree.


Finally, the US a friendly nation like the UAE is supplying weapons to Ukraine. 


Brass, just like the oil glut and the precipitous drop in the price of crude by those "Saudis."

You're a cynical guy, Muzh.

What's interesting about this is France is the predominate supplier of the UAE military machine followed by the US, UK and Turkey. China, Sweden and several other countries are also contributors/suppliers.

Wouldn't that just pucker Putin's pooper if Ukraine ended up being supplied with Chinese equipment.

Brass

[Brasscasing]

So curiosity peaked I go looking on the net for what's China been up to news and find this...

Ukraine considers use of Chinese loans
Posted 24 February 2015 12:38 GMT

..."Ukraine is holding negotiations with China to expand the use of a $3.6 billion loan to projects in the oil and gas sector, Deputy Energy and Coal Industry Minister Igor Didenko told Interfax."...

http://interfaxenergy.com/gasdaily/article/15355/ukraine-considers-use-of-chinese-loans

Ukraine hopes to spend Chinese loan money on building interconnection gas pipelines

..."Ukraine is holding talks on using credit funds from the China Development Bank to finance the construction of interconnection gas pipelines with Poland, chief adviser to Board Chairman of Naftogaz Ukrainy Serniy Alekseyenko has said."...

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ukraine-hopes-to-spend-chinese-loan-money-on-building-interconnection-gas-pipelines-381601.html

Uh, wasn't it just a few months ago the pro Putinists were crowing the 'special' relationship between Russia and China? And wasn't it the sane among us who were replying that the Chinese played their own game and there was never going to be an advantage to Russia with any business/trade deals?

So, if I'm reading these news articles correctly, China is now financing Ukraine to become less dependent on Russian natural gas....that's hilarious...but predictable.

Brass