Is this the end to conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh?

[msmob]

While the US elections have been going on a rather nasty frozen conflict kicked off between Azerbaijan and Armenia over a disputed mountainous region ( Nagorno-Karabakh) .

Yesterday the Azeri's admitted to shooting down a RU military helicopter  and killing two crew ..the third has serious injuries.

Suddenly, an armistice  has been called and RU peacekeepers are being deployed  as we speak.


BBC News - Azerbaijan admits shooting down Russian helicopter in Armenia
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54874162

WATCH Russian peacekeepers board planes for deployment to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone http://www.rt.com/russia/506243-peacekeepers-board-plane-karabakh/

This spat had the potential  to bring RU into conflict with Turkey, whose leader is presiding over TR expansionism whilst his nation's economy tanks.

Neighbouring Georgia was told by Turkey that TR reserved the right to use Georgia's territory to aid the Azeris....

Hope this stop the death toll of civilians.

[2tallbill]

RU peacekeepers are being deployed  as we speak.

RU peacekeepers is an oxymoron. They only show up to pick
a side, divide the spoils and gain an advantage.

Hope this stop the death toll of civilians.

It was never a consideration

[msmob]

RU peacekeepers is an oxymoron. They only show up to pick
a side, divide the spoils and gain an advantage.

Can't see that this time, Beel

Not sure of any 'advantage / leverage' to be gained - other than to prove to Armenia the need to keep a RU base there

[msmob]

Why the Russians stepped in..?

The first war won with attack drones?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/11/10/the-magic-bullet-drones-behind--azerbaijans-victory-over-armenia/


Seems Turkey's drones wiped out Soviet era defences with ease...

[Trenchcoat]

Why the Russians stepped in..?

The first war won with attack drones?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2020/11/10/the-magic-bullet-drones-behind--azerbaijans-victory-over-armenia/


Seems Turkey's drones wiped out Soviet era defences with ease...

The Russians back Armenia who were cracking under the pressure from Azerbaijan. So Russia deployed their troops to Armenia to stop the defeats. Azerbaijan know that they are no match for Russia so had to come to terms despite winning the war. Azerbaijan still keep some gains including getting Armenian tripod of its turf so haven't lost out completely. Russia now has Armenia in its pocket as a new client state as it has its Russian military 'peacekeepers' on its turf, so Russia is happy. Armenia had little choice other than to go along with the plan or face Azerbaijan driving right through into their territory and inflicting a punishing and humilifying defeat on Armenia. So Armenia avoid a total defeat and now have the full protection of Russia though at the cost to its independence.

Other than that the loss of lives to add on top of course.

[2tallbill]

Can't see that this time, Beel

Not sure of any 'advantage / leverage' to be gained - other than to prove to Armenia the need to keep a RU base there

Read Trench's post #4 it explains the basics.

Also,

'advantage / leverage' is bad form it should be
advantage/leverage 

[Boethius]

I disagree.

First, the most recent skirmish was about more than Nagorno-Karabakh.  It also included land seized by Armenia in 1994, which has always been, unlike Nagorno-Karabakh, predominantly occupied by Azeris.  Second, Russia did not aid Armenia.

Armenia and Russia are both part of CETO, so, theoretically, Russia should have stepped up to defend Armenia.  Yet, it didn't.  It brokered the peace agreement between the parties (one that is highly unpopular in Armenia).

Here's a good explanation -

http://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/18/after-russias-nagorno-karabakh-ceasefire-could-turkey-step-up-next-for-a-lasting-peace/

This post was composed without the aid of google.

[2tallbill]

Armenia and Russia are both part of CETO, so, theoretically, Russia should have
stepped up to defend Armenia.  Yet, it didn't.  It brokered the peace agreement
between the parties (one that is highly unpopular in Armenia).

The CSTO means whatever Russia wants it to mean at whatever time.
Russia specifically said that they weren't going to defend Armenia unless
the main part of the country was being threatened.

Russia cares about what it can gain from any foreign interaction.

Moscow Worries Armenian ‘Velvet Revolution’ Could
Lessen Its Leverage Over Yerevan
http://jamestown.org/program/armenias-velvet-revolution-threatens-moscows-continued-leverage-over-country/

I disagree.

First, the most recent skirmish was about more than Nagorno-Karabakh.  It also included land seized by Armenia in 1994, which has always been, unlike Nagorno-Karabakh, predominantly occupied by Azeris.  Second, Russia did not aid Armenia.

Armenia and Russia are both part of CETO, so, theoretically, Russia should have stepped up to defend Armenia.  Yet, it didn't.  It brokered the peace agreement between the parties (one that is highly unpopular in Armenia).

Here's a good explanation -

http://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/18/after-russias-nagorno-karabakh-ceasefire-could-turkey-step-up-next-for-a-lasting-peace/

This post was composed without the aid of google.

Russia’s Security Guarantees for Armenia Don’t Extend to Karabakh, Putin Says
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/10/07/russias-security-guarantees-for-armenia-dont-extend-to-karabakh-putin-says-a71687


A Stunted Peace in Nagorno-Karabakh
http://tinyurl.com/yyssy84z

[Boethius]

Replaced your link with a shortened one, so as not to disturb the reading pane.


There are between 1 and 3 million Azeris living in Russia, most, without citizenship.


Russia shares a border with Azerbaijan, so I believe they don't want a war, even if not on their border, in the region.  The last thing Russia wants is more Azeris flooding Russia.


This post was composed without the aid of google.

[rwd123]

Russia now effectively controls south of the Caucasus. It has Russian forces in Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Syria. Hopefully that hems in the meglomaniac Erdogan.

It's not the end of the conflict. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a new leader in Armenia that calls off the cease fire. Armenians are livid (generally speaking).

[msmob]

Boethius has offered the most accurate explanation.

Russia could have ended this at any time, but chose to wait it out while Armenia got whopped, militarily.

Armenia's current (  now, unpopular ) leader was not particularly enamoured with Moscow's influence. Now, he is holding on to power by his fingertips..



As rwd123 alludes, a Moscow win..to stop Erdoğan increasing it's influence.


What is interesting....the turning points were the Azeri's taking a strategic city AND the shooting down of a Russian military helicopter a long way from the fighting, resulting in an immediate apology from Baku and compensation offered.

THAT is when Russia stepped in....It could have been worse for Armenia.

Turkey supplied their Drones and 'military advisors' and wiped out Soviet tanks at 5:1 the rate of the Azeris and rendered once feared the S-300 air defences useless.

I strongly disagree that the conflict is not over.

I think you will find this will result in the long closed borders with Turkey and Armenia re opening.

What was the most telling was the radio silence from Tehran, a surprising friend of Christian Armenia.

They will have noted Ankara's influence and winning for Azerbaijan. I suspect they would not have wanted Armenia, proper to shrink.

 



 

[2tallbill]

Note: I don't necessarily agree with this report. I generally believe Turkey
is out to help Turkey by playing the East and the West against each other.

Turkey’s goal in Caucasus was to increase Russia’s role - analysis
While Turkey frequently spreads misinformation via its state media,
imprisons journalists and dissidents and bashes the US, it is growing
closer to Russia.
Turkey and Russia are increasingly becoming strategic partners in an effort to work
with Iran and remove the US from the Middle East. This is Turkey’s overall goal,
and the recent conflicts and chaos it has spread from Syria to Libya, the
Mediterranean and Caucasus are designed to partition these areas into
Russian and Turkish spheres of influence.

Turkey has encouraged its lobbyists in the US to claim that Ankara is doing
“geopolitics” designed to be a “bulwark” against Russia, using Cold War-era
terminology to encourage Westerners to believe that Ankara is on the side of
Washington against Moscow.

The reality, however, is that Turkey’s goal is to work with Russia and Iran to
reduce US influence.

read all about it here
http://www.jpost.com/middle-east/turkeys-goal-in-caucasus-was-to-increase-russias-role-654022