Ukraine-The Future

[JayH]

Billy,although I used your quote my post was not directed at you personally.It used your example as an example of the attitude of some.
 

[JayH]

One way for Europe to exert greater control over its destiny and security is to step up its support for Ukraine. After all, it is in Europe’s interest to have a stable, pro-western Ukraine on its eastern border. Here are four easy steps it can take to promote this objective.


Four Easy Ways the EU Can Support Ukraine

The EU should also assist Ukraine in the creation of special anti-corruption courts, a key IMF requirement. The EU could provide funding to create this system, establish its infrastructure, and ensure that the courts’ judges receive competitive salaries. This would promote the judges’ independence and free them from the vagaries of government budgeting.

Third, the EU should consider funding a “mini-Marshall Plan” for Ukraine. As Anders Åslund points out, Russia’s war in the Donbas has cost Ukraine at least six billion dollars in foreign direct investment, starving the economy of the capital it needs to grow and innovate. To counter that deficit, the EU should use the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to invest directly in Ukrainian firms and infrastructure. Many European countries also have export credit agencies that could guarantee their firms’ investments in Ukraine, which would encourage European companies to invest there.


http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/four-easy-ways-the-eu-can-support-ukraine#

[JayH]

Hopefully very soon  Ukraine will be in a position to look to the future -without having to look backwards all the time !
This is about civil reforms-- not fighting to keep Russia out. In the long term-- a reformed modern Ukraine will be the best defence against Russia.
Ukrainian-European romance began some years ago in a totally different atmosphere. A strong and united European Union welcomed Ukraine’s adherence to European values, which was expressed during and after EuroMaidan. The country held transparent and democratic presidential and parliamentary elections and declared the launch of radical reforms.
United States policy makers were also unanimous in supporting Ukraine in its aspirations for sovereignty and democracy.

The public administration reform should be the first priority. Only new people with new values can change the game in public service. But new people who come from the private sector cannot survive on low salaries, much below the market level, while corrupt officials benefit from enormous additional incomes, and old-fashioned low-skilled bureaucrats are happy with any low-paid job.

The long-expected European project of decent salaries for reform task-forces should solve the problem.

What should be the West's strategy in Ukraine?

What would be the right strategy for the West to take in Ukraine in this complicated environment? Here are seven key recommendations based on the lessons learned from past mistakes.
 
1. Set a clear agenda and goals. An abstract appeal, “please introduce more reforms, fight corruption” does not work.
 
2. Set rewards for reached goals. There is no motivation without rewards. In many cases changes are painful, so people have to understand gains.
 
3. Always fulfil promises. When Ukraine completes its tasks, Europe has to do what has been promised. Remember that Ukrainians made the European choice of order and justice, not of disorder and irresponsibility.
 
4. Never slow Ukraine down, let us make drastic changes when we need to destroy communist legacy and corruption.
 
5. Demand sentences for top corrupt officials; this is the only way to keep social tensions at bay.
 
6. Concentrate on key reforms which could make Ukraine a more reliable and predictable partner such as: public administration reform, judicial reform, state finances reform, and electoral reform. Do not set too many priorities.
 
7. Demand implementation, not just formal paperwork: introducing nice laws in line with European practice does not mean that real changes are being made.
 

http://www.neweasterneurope.eu/articles-and-commentary/2262-what-should-be-the-west-s-strategy-in-ukraine

[JayH]

Various articles  that summarise the current situation in Ukraine appear from time to time.This is another very fair assessment.It does deal with come of the often raised on this forum criticisms of Ukraine --by both friend and foe.

Ukraine deserves US support
Building a democracy isn’t easy, even in the best of circumstances. As a diplomat for over 40 years, I have seen firsthand how difficult it has been for the countries of Central and Eastern Europe to overcome the legacy of Soviet authoritarianism, root out corruption, and establish free societies and market economies based on the rule of law.

No country in this region has faced more formidable challenges than Ukraine.
Ukraine is making progress against tough odds. It deserves US support.

   In the 25 years after achieving independence in 1991, Ukraine squandered many opportunities for reform, disappointing the aspirations of its people for a European future based on justice, prosperity and accountable leaders and institutions. When former President Viktor Yanukovych, yielding to Russian pressure, suspended Ukraine's negotiations on partnership with the European Union in late 2013, the Ukrainian people made it clear that they had had enough.

Their frustration led to the Revolution of Dignity on Kyiv's Maidan square, Yanukovych's flight to Russia and, a few months later, the election of new, reformist leaders led by current President Petro Poroshenko.

Since that time, however, Ukraine has had to continue the reform process with a gun to its head, both literally and figuratively.

It has not been easy for Ukraine to start a reform process from the ground up, especially while it has been fighting to protect its freedom and independence from Russian aggression.

Russia has worked to undermine Ukraine through its illegal annexation of Crimea and sponsorship of an armed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine, coupled with economic intimidation and misinformation campaigns. Russia's actions are designed to portray Ukraine as a failed state that doesn't deserve support from the larger international community.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international/319863-ukraine-is-making-progress-against-tough-odds-it-deserves-us

[jone]

I read, this morning, that Lugansk is changing currency.  All transactions after March 1st are to be done in Russian Rubles.   Additionally, the DNR has stated that they will begin nationalizing Ukrainian businesses (as if they haven't already) in direct retaliation for the blockade.  Apparently the blockade is creating a significant impact on the already decimated economy of Donetsk.

Thinking to myself today, I was comparing the Russian position in Transnisteria compared with the situation in Eastern Ukraine.  Should the Russians annex Eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine successfully shed the burden of maintaining a military operation, then Russia would be burdened with the now lifeless hulk of two territories which would drain the Russian economy even further.

Moldova is saddled with the prospect of Russia's military within its own country.  Donetsk and Lugansk, as a part of Russia, would remove the need to accommodate the Russian military and supply a region that is mostly bankrupt.

I believe that Ukraine's future would be brighter without Lugansk and Donetsk.  After all, most of the productive people have already left the regions and the people left are the hardcore, pro-Russian elements.

Just a thought.

[calmissile]

I read, this morning, that Lugansk is changing currency.  All transactions after March 1st are to be done in Russian Rubles.   Additionally, the DNR has stated that they will begin nationalizing Ukrainian businesses (as if they haven't already) in direct retaliation for the blockade.  Apparently the blockade is creating a significant impact on the already decimated economy of Donetsk.

Thinking to myself today, I was comparing the Russian position in Transnisteria compared with the situation in Eastern Ukraine.  Should the Russians annex Eastern Ukraine, and Ukraine successfully shed the burden of maintaining a military operation, then Russia would be burdened with the now lifeless hulk of two territories which would drain the Russian economy even further.

Moldova is saddled with the prospect of Russia's military within its own country.  Donetsk and Lugansk, as a part of Russia, would remove the need to accommodate the Russian military and supply a region that is mostly bankrupt.

I believe that Ukraine's future would be brighter without Lugansk and Donetsk.  After all, most of the productive people have already left the regions and the people left are the hardcore, pro-Russian elements.

Just a thought.

Even if you are correct in your conclusions, it still leaves Russia rewarded for the land grabs in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine without consequences.   A bad precedent for the future.  The sanctions were apparently working and we know that economics brought down the Soviet Union during the Cold War, perhaps strengthening the sanctions will keep the Russians at bay for a while and possibly cause the return of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine.

[BillyB]

I believe that Ukraine's future would be brighter without Lugansk and Donetsk.

That's what Putin wants everyone to believe. Even my wife started to believe that thinking the rest of Ukraine will get their way in voting in future elections, believe Putin will leave them alone, peace will come and Ukraine can move to the West. I asked her if peace came and Putin left them alone after Crimea. End of conversation.

[jone]

The problem, as I see it, is the repatriation of the current occupants of the two invaded regions.  How can the people come back together and be one country again?  Why would Ukraine want them back?

Anyone who has looked at the voting demographics previous to Maidan will note that the greatest saturation of Russian leaning voters was in Crimea and Donetsk.  If Ukraine became whole again, voting would once again favor alliance with Russia.

This war has polarized Ukraine in a way that alliance with the West never could.  There are is now only a minority of Russian leaning voters in Ukraine.  Future elections will focus on moving into a Western based economy. 

There is not going to be any good solution for Ukraine.   It is still corrupt and poor.  But footing the bill for an ongoing war only creates a nation of beggars.  If the opening is there for a settlement, pride must be subservient to pragmatism and Ukraine might seriously bargain for a solution that facilitates military support from the West if Russia violates Ukraine's borders.

[BillyB]

How can the people come back together and be one country again?

I see more unity between Ukraine's East and West compared to America's North and South during the Civil War. Giving away land to Putin thinking Ukraine will gain security is a big mistake. I don't believe far East Ukrainians really want to separate from Ukraine because the majority aren't willing to give up their lives. They haven't come close to all out civil war.

[JayH]

The problem, as I see it, is the repatriation of the current occupants of the two invaded regions.  How can the people come back together and be one country again?  Why would Ukraine want them back?

Anyone who has looked at the voting demographics previous to Maidan will note that the greatest saturation of Russian leaning voters was in Crimea and Donetsk.  If Ukraine became whole again, voting would once again favor alliance with Russia.

This war has polarized Ukraine in a way that alliance with the West never could.  There are is now only a minority of Russian leaning voters in Ukraine.  Future elections will focus on moving into a Western based economy. 

There is not going to be any good solution for Ukraine.   It is still corrupt and poor.  But footing the bill for an ongoing war only creates a nation of beggars.  If the opening is there for a settlement, pride must be subservient to pragmatism and Ukraine might seriously bargain for a solution that facilitates military support from the West if Russia violates Ukraine's borders.

You are spewing the Kremlin garbage line --basically full of bullshit laced with a few seemingly reasonable ideas.
Throw in a few of your bullshit conclusions and what is ignorance only highlights how out of touch you are.
The Kyiv government has an action plan to rehabiitate the east when they get it back.

[JayH]

That's what Putin wants everyone to believe. Even my wife started to believe that thinking the rest of Ukraine will get their way in voting in future elections, believe Putin will leave them alone, peace will come and Ukraine can move to the West. I asked her if peace came and Putin left them alone after Crimea. End of conversation.

You got it BB .Putin will invade,manoeuvre,frustrate,obstruct,interfere conduct an undeclared war -lie,cheat--basically do anything that serves his purpose.
Originally the intent was to own,control  Ukraine etc-as that has become increasingly more difficult to impossible to achieve-- the next move is to try and disrupt Ukraine and keep it poor--if he can.
What has become clear--he is losing-Ukraine is winning.
Conceding ANYTHING,anything at all to Russia-- will only have the effect of moving a crisis furtherinto Ukraine.
As for the east being pro Russian --BULLSHIT -it always was-- and always will be just that.

The answer for Ukraine( & the world at large) is to hand Putin his armies arse on a plate -chances are that will lead to the end of Putin -- and potentially Russia as we have known it.

Russia is all but out of money. The reserves are estimated as low as 15 Billion -- and I believe are more like half that. That is at an extremely critical stage .That is near enough to broke.When other countries within Russia smell the potential death of the Republic  -it could unravel fast.Ukraine pushing the Russians out --could well be the litmus.
The fact is that the Obama sanctions are close to fulfilling their intentions -- now Trump can capitalise on that start -ramping up the pressure on Russia and Putins  is highly likely to get real results.

This is not the time to go soft --but really hit Putin/Russia hard.

[mhr7]

I see more unity between Ukraine's East and West compared to America's North and South during the Civil War. Giving away land to Putin thinking Ukraine will gain security is a big mistake. I don't believe far East Ukrainians really want to separate from Ukraine because the majority aren't willing to give up their lives. They haven't come close to all out civil war.

I work with 3 people  who came from E. Ukraine. Two of them have nothing nice to say about the rest of Ukraine and want nothing to do with it. The hate runs deeply and in the long run I think jone's idea may be the most realistic plan of action. This war and its economic drain on the economy could drag on for years.

[ML]

More than 500 members of the European Parliament voted for visa liberalization for Ukraine during a session in Strasbourg on April 6, the latest stage in granting Ukrainians the ability to visit most EU countries without having to apply for visas.

Only a few more formalities remain. The decision is yet to be formally approved by the Council of Ministers and then published in EU’s Official Journal. The visa exemption will enter into force 20 days after publication in the EU Official Journal.

[JayH]

More than 500 members of the European Parliament voted for visa liberalization for Ukraine during a session in Strasbourg on April 6, the latest stage in granting Ukrainians the ability to visit most EU countries without having to apply for visas.

Only a few more formalities remain. The decision is yet to be formally approved by the Council of Ministers and then published in EU’s Official Journal. The visa exemption will enter into force 20 days after publication in the EU Official Journal.

Despite the best attempts of Russia to impede/prevent this  it is finally happening. This issue was one of the catalysts to the removal of Yanukovych regime and the Maidan revolt.

It is such an important achievement for Ukraine is it's quest to establish a free and independent Ukraine -- and to allow Ukrainians to see that their future is as part of Europe and and the west-- and it's values.

Also to be noted -- the procession of Russian trolls and pro Rus dunkleheads here( & all over the internet courtesy of the troll factories) who said it would never happen -- once again--you look pretty stupid now !!!

EU Parliament approves visa-free regime for Ukraine. What are the new rules for crossing the border?

“Visa liberalisation for Ukraine is a long-awaited and overdue step, and sends a strong signal: we belong together. This move recognizes and builds upon the wishes of the great many Ukrainians who feel orientated towards the West and will strengthen relations between EU citizens and Ukrainians.”

http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/04/06/eu-parliament-votes-for-visa-free-regime-for-ukraine-what-are-the-new-rules-of-crossing-the-border-for-ukrainians/#arvlbdata

[JayH]

One of the many incorrect assertions made by the pro Rus and ignorant going back a few years was that Ukrainians would never fight Russia -on the basis that they were one and brothers. Well-- that has been proven a fallacy.

That same invasion by Putin of Ukraine firstly on the Crimea and then eastern Ukraine-- and the attempts to destabilise all over Ukraine have served to unite Ukrainians in a way local politics never could have.

This study discussed in the link is proof. In the last week-I also saw a study where over 70% also considered Ukrainian as their first language-- a huge rise from just a few short years ago.

It lays to rest any notion that Ukrainians have any desire to be dominated from Moscow ever again.


Putin’s Greatest Achievement and Most Fateful Failure

 Ninety-two percent of Ukrainian citizens now consider themselves ethnic Ukrainians, an unprecedented figure that is the product of Vladimir Putin’s aggression against their country and one that highlights the fundamental weakness of ethnic Russian national identities not only there but elsewhere -- including in the Russian Federation.

            According to a new poll by Kyiv’s Razumkov Center, 92 percent of Ukrainian citizens now consider themselves ethnic Ukrainians, six percent say they are ethnic Russians, and 1.5 percent identify as members of other ethnic groups (zn.ua/UKRAINE/bolee-90-grazhdan-schitayut-sebya-etnicheskimi-ukraincami-245309_.html).

            Among young people in Ukraine, the share identifying as ethnic Ukrainians approaches 100 percent, the pollsters said, while among those over the age of 60, the figure was less than 90 percent but still far higher than at any point in the past.

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com.au/2017/04/making-ukraine-mono-ethnic-putins.html?spref=fb

[Boethius]

This is a good article on corruption in Ukraine, something that must be dealt with to secure a good future -


http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2017-06-29/ukraine-s-stalled-revolution

[msmob]

This is a good article on corruption in Ukraine, something that must be dealt with to secure a good future -


http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2017-06-29/ukraine-s-stalled-revolution

Very fair article .. Didn't realise 'Rain' had been throttled in UA, too .... bizarre.

Particularly worrying that those who want to end corruption are so often the ones 'targeted' ... ((

[southernX]

This is a good article on corruption in Ukraine, something that must be dealt with to secure a good future -


http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2017-06-29/ukraine-s-stalled-revolution

good article indeed
there is an even better example of corruption at work in the tv series ''SERVANT TO THE PEOPLE '' if you have not seen this comedy then i would highly reccomend it

teaser link below




SX

[JayH]

Ukraine needs help-- no question about that. The major overiding point is EU help for Ukraine will equal help for all of Europe ( & the world).
My view-- all aid -- both military and economic--  should be done in a unified way -- with the overiding conditions being really brutal reform on corruption with  zero tolerance laws being put in place.( worlds best practice laws)
I am now of the view that a line should be drawn ( a date like today!) -- where previous corruption is pardoned-- based on those people getting out of any public position held now and them disqualifying themselves for any future position-be that elected or employed.
Then -- corruption equals substantial jail terms and confiscation of all assets .
Why an  amnesty? The only way to get these people out of the system quickly is to remove a major reason they will not leave easily--ie they need to stay to "control" situation. So--the writing needs to be on very large letters on the wall that the future will see them in jail if they do not accept.
There are other ways to deal with ill gotten gains -- and I would be putting them in place-- after getting stage one deal done.!

Why Europe should support a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine

Why should Europeans allocate money for the renovation of Ukraine’s infrastructure? The proposal by the Seimas (Parliament) of the Republic of Lithuania for a “new European plan” for Ukraine based on the “Marshall Plan” may  seem too ambitious and even useless for the European Union. But, in reality, Europe should help Ukraine not only for the benefit of Ukrainians. It should help Ukraine primarily for itself

The “Marshall Plan” provided enormous sums for the restoration of the European continent destroyed by war. But it was not charity. It was, in fact, genuine selfishness.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/08/22/why-europe-should-support-a-marshall-plan-for-ukraine/#arvlbdata

[BillyB]

Why Europe should support a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine

Why should Europeans allocate money for the renovation of Ukraine’s infrastructure? The proposal by the Seimas (Parliament) of the Republic of Lithuania for a “new European plan” for Ukraine based on the “Marshall Plan” may  seem too ambitious and even useless for the European Union. But, in reality, Europe should help Ukraine not only for the benefit of Ukrainians. It should help Ukraine primarily for itself

The “Marshall Plan” provided enormous sums for the restoration of the European continent destroyed by war. But it was not charity. It was, in fact, genuine selfishness.

Marshall plan was enacted after a war was over. Ukraine's war isn't over. If Europe goes and dumps a lot of money into Ukraine, it may go to Russia if they decide to take Ukraine over.

[JayH]

Interesting article that covers  the essential issues facing Ukraine today. It manages to express what is a complicated topic in easy to understand writing style.
I have always been more optimistic that the "good" would eventually prevail in Ukraine -- by the sheer will of the people.The problem with that is explained quite well in this article -- and deals with the recent history.
Numerous times I have commented that western aid should be tied to internal reform -- and I am now more convinced than ever that a sledgehammer approach is required to move the political scene to a new reality.The people in power need to be forced to accept REAL reform --or be left to face Russia alone.
As long as Ukraine is allowed to continue as it is-- real long term lasting progress will be half hearted and filled with self interest-- and that must end.
To be noted -- much progress has been made in the new direction-- but at this stage all that most Ukrainians see is rising prices and an ongoing war. Putin & Russia's intent is to drag the war out as long as possible,create as much discontent as possible in Ukraine and wear down Ukraine. The longer the west procrastinates-- the more time that passes serves Russia's intent-- not Ukraine's.

Winning the revolution will take more than winning the Maidan

A Wake-up Call for Ukraine’s Civil Society


Yet the key first step for Ukraine’s pro-democracy activists and groups is to renew their focus on honesty and integrity, and stand for those principles in full public view. For example, many activists and public intellectuals think that criticism of the government automatically undermines Ukraine’s international standing and weakens its position vis-à-vis Russia. But reforms that do nothing to build Ukraine’s rule of law do not deserve defending. Ukraine’s war in the East is no excuse for its leaders to assault activists, silence investigative journalists, or harass reformers. It is dishonest to extoll Ukraine for protecting European values against Putin’s aggression if Ukraine’s political leaders smash these very values at home. The longer civil society turns a blind eye to government violations against the civic space, the longer it will take to win this space back.


http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/kennan-cable-no25-wake-call-for-ukraines-civil-society

[JayH]

Following the previous article here is more that deals with many of the same issues. The easy part is to see what is wrong --the much harder part is to change the direction -- the mindset .
A major  problem for the western countries is that without any real direction coming from the US it is difficult( impossible?) to form an overall overriding cohesive plan.There are quite a few people who do know and understand what needs to happen in Ukraine-- but have no idea how to achieve it.

"The greatest danger for Ukraine today, therefore, may not be being overrun by Russia or abandoned by the United States. Instead, the danger lies in Ukraine’s gradual backsliding into bitter patronage politics and soft authoritarianism—twin scourges that could put out the promise of the Maidan just as surely as they extinguished the Orange Revolution."

AFTER MAIDAN
Ukraine Is Still Its Own Worst Enemy

Kyiv’s “patronal” politics and soft authoritarianism could extinguish the promise of the Maidan, just as they did the Orange Revolution before it.
Ukraine’s struggle to deliver on the democratic promise of the Maidan has not diminished the public’s appetite for reform. A recent poll showed that 51 percent of Ukrainians consider state corruption to be a top priority for Ukraine—more, even, than cited the war in the east with Russia. But few believe that either the state or civil society is successfully rooting out corruption. Approval ratings for all of Ukraine’s leading politicians are dismal: the most popular one, Yulia Tymoshenko, enjoys a mere 22% approval. Another reshuffling of the country’s loathed political elites will hardly fix the underlying pathologies of the Ukrainian state. A deeper reckoning is needed, one that takes into account the West’s own culpability in propping up Ukraine’s corrupt oligarchy.


http://www.the-american-interest.com/2017/08/31/ukraine-still-worst-enemy/

[JayH]

Much is written about the current situation in Ukraine ==often critical of the slower than desirable pace of reform -- and there is no argument that it is desperately needed.
Ukraine is expected to pursue its utopian programme at the same time as it is trying to defend itself against Russia's unprovoked, multi-vectored war.

It is a war which includes a massive information assault to discredit the Ukrainian state, unrestrained hate propaganda to dehumanise Ukrainians, unprecedented economic pressure, political subversion, intimidation of Ukrainian citizens by murders, kidnappings, unlawful prosecution, terrorist attacks, and military invasion on its territory.

West needs to get real on Ukraine

Ever since the EuroMaidan revolution in 2014, Ukraine's governments have been under close scrutiny to meet the expectations of the supporters of a pro-European, liberal, and democratic model.
The expectations that Ukraine becomes a utopia set a very high bar to meet. The bar is so high, in fact, that it could not possibly be met even by wealthy western nations that have enjoyed peace and stability.


The 2014 EuroMaidan revolution created huge expectations.
Expecting the impossible meant that criticism of Ukraine's 'failure' to swiftly undertake sweeping social change was inevitable. In recent months, a mounting wave of criticism of the Ukrainian government has flooded the media in Ukraine and abroad.

Unfortunately, these criticisms are often unreasonable, ignoring the reality of what can be achieved under even ideal circumstances, the vast difficulties of conducting reforms, the time required for meaningful institutional change to occur, and the challenge of reform during war time.
http://euobserver.com/opinion/139169

[Doll]

[JayH]

Over a period of time I have repeatedly commented on the many changes taking place in Ukraine since Maidan  -- particularly the pace of change. Many think too slow-- not enough etc . All sentiments I agree with -- but  --it needs to be balanced by what is possible to do . The Russian invasion and threat had to be suppressed -- and against all the odds the fight back by ordinary Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine and the incredible bravery shown by so many Ukrainians at Maidan -- and in the east will never be forgotten .
     Many ,many people underestimated the spirit of Ukrainians ,maybe they barely understood it themselves , but ,when it started to take hold Ukrainians wanted to stand up and be proud of their country.Thanks to Putin-- the catalyst he provided united Ukrainians like never before.
    This article deals with some of the positives that exist now in Ukraine . It needs some charismatic dynamic leadership to tie it all together -- and build on what has been achieved.
         

This Time It Will Be Very, Very Different
Unfortunately, 2018 is starting to shape up like 2013. President Petro Poroshenko consolidates his power by foot dragging on reforms promised to Western donors, then by harassing opponents. Like the Yanukovych era, there is no rule of law, no parliamentary accountability, and no effective pursuit of corrupt officials or even of Yanukovych who stole billions. Conditions resemble those that led to the 2004 and 2014 “street” revolutions, a situation that officials continuously say cannot be allowed because it would lead to instability and renewed Russian aggression.

But if Ukrainians must take to the streets again, it will be different this time.

The specter of a Russian invasion no longer exists, nor does the possibility that more “little green men” will foment insurrections. The reason is that military conscription, and Western funds, have created one of Europe’s biggest military forces, with 204,000 soldiers (slightly fewer than France’s), 46,000 support staff plus paramilitary forces or 53,000 border guards, and 60,000 in the National Guard.


http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/this-time-it-will-be-very-very-different