More Bad News for Russia

[BdHvA]

With what seems an agreement with Iran that allows Iran to again export oil, this can only point to a lower price for a barrel of oil, in the future.

I guess after being mothballed it will take a while for Iranian oil to start to be exported, but assuming the agreement is enacted and signed off on, the oil will flow into the worlds economy.

[jone]

In other news today:

The Duma today presented new laws that prohibit citizens of Russia from discussing military aircraft.  It seems that there is a generic threat to the country that such discussion might lead to a general lack of confidence in aircraft that fly for the military and aircraft that fly within Russia.

Violators of this (proposed) law will be forced to fly in one of the aforementioned aircraft and post their experiences for all to read.  Those that do not survive the flights will not be required to post.

[southernX]

interesting article below  russian regions debt levels increase


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/debt-crisis-looms-as-putins-pledges-bankrupt-russian-regions/525723.html

[sleepycat]

Millions more Russians sliding into poverty. 

http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/22/news/economy/russia-crisis-poverty-three-million/index.html

[alex330]

And yet another heavy blow to the Russian economy. The US will begin to export natural gas at a cost of around 40% less than Russia currently does. Hard times. Wonder if that huge LNG terminal that was in the planning stages at the port of Odessa may be under talks once more?


http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/07/02/ozy-us-export-russia-gas/29580505/

[sleepycat]

Q)  What should you do if you are the dwarf president whose country has been rated as junk status by major international
      credit rating agencies?

A)  Start your own credit rating agency to paint a positive picture of your country's third world economy of course!

http://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/russia-announces-creation-credit-rating-agency-190042540--sector.html

[calmissile]

 today in Sevastopol big military day.        I bet the commander is already headed for Siberia
I wonder how the Kremlin will spin this one.
 

[sleepycat]

today in Sevastopol big military day.        I bet the commander is already headed for Siberia
I wonder how the Kremlin will spin this one.
 

On the bright side, at least the misfired missile didn't sink its own ship. 

[AkMike]

That's too bad.. That would have been a bigger embarrassment for them. 

[jone]

In other (bad) news for Russia, slumping oil prices have slowed Gazprom's output to a trickle and the Ruble has once again devalued against the Dollar.

Today the Ruble inched above the 60 per dollar mark, finishing at 60.62 Rubles to a Dollar.  The continued double whammy of sanctions and low oil prices are wreaking havoc on the Russian economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-ruble-drops-past-60-per-dollar-112739600.html

[AkMike]

Average Bribe in Russia Doubles in Rubles, Remains Steady in Dollars

The amount of the average bribe in Russia has nearly doubled this year, reaching 208,000 rubles ($3,485 at today's rate), as the country's currency has shed value amid Western sanctions and an economic downturn, according to Interior Ministry estimates cited by pro-government Izvestia daily on Friday.

This compares to about 109,000 rubles Russians are believed to have been paying or receiving as an average bribe in 2014, though police concede that their estimates may not be completely accurate, the report said.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/526556.html

[Brasscasing]

Coming in at number one for the servile adulator's misplaced faith in Putin's ability to rule the world...

The Mistral Ships Deal:...

...France should forward any funds received from Russia's Mistral contract to Ukraine's government as partial compensation for war damage.

France cancels sale of warships to Russia, pays Moscow back

..."France is looking for a buyer for two high-tech Mistral warships worth a reported $1.3 billion after confirming Thursday that it had canceled its controversial deal to deliver the vessels to Russia..

Paris has reimbursed Moscow for the two helicopter carriers, which the French government decided not to deliver because of Russia's annexation of Crimea last year."...

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-france-cancels-sale-warships-to-russia-20150806-story.html

Well it's official. The Mistral contract is dead and the warships will not be delivered.

Well done for sticking to your guns France (even amongst the cow towing to the frumpy frau's Putin appeasement blitz)

Unfortunately France has decided to repay Russia. I urge the French not to pay out the contract but either place the money in escrow for compensation to Ukraine in partial reparation for war damage caused by Russia's invasion or edit: turn the funds over to The Hague as seized Russian state assets for dispensation to Yukos shareholders as per the court order....

Russian State Assets Seized in Europe Over Yukos Case

..."Moscow has protested the seizure of Russian government assets in France and Belgium - a move taken to enforce a multi-billion-dollar judgment in a lawsuit filed by shareholders of Yukos, the now-defunct Russian oil company founded by tycoon-turned-dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky."...

http://www.voanews.com/content/ap-russia-angered-by-freezing-of-accounts-belgium-france/2827948.html

I'm sure the Putin fluffers will try to spin this in a positive light (after insisting for almost a year France would deliver the ships) but the fact is this is a major setback for the arch criminal occupying the Kremlin.

It's a loss of face for Putin and his henchmen and I believe what may be the first of several major economic/military setbacks about to unfold in the months to come.

Brass

[mendeleyev]

(The Mendeleyev Journal) The title of the article is "Who's Left in Russia?" and authors Louise Dickson and Sophia Tupolev chronicle the flow of expats who have left Russia in the past year, and profile those who have chosen to stay.

In the article, they write that "Russia’s opportunities for expats are shrinking faster than its economy, it seems. Economic growth is forecast to contract by as much as 5% in 2015, the ruble has depreciated 50% against the dollar, and foreign companies are jettisoning off Russian ventures."

For many expats, staying in Russia has become more difficult. Not only have economic opportunities shrunk, but attitudes towards "outsiders" are hardening. The two observe that "...Russia’s collapsing economy that no longer demands as many Western specialists. Many have left, but some have stayed." The article profiles five expats who share their experience in Moscow’s rapidly changing business landscape.


(Tourism was far more active in previous years, such as this photo taken by the Mendeleyev Journal at the rear of Red Square in 2011.)

However, it is not only the expat community that is in decline. Tourism is down, especially since the annexation of Crimea. "Since this time last year, 499,000 fewer Westerners lived in, visited, or studied in Russia, or an average net loss of 1,360 per day."

Similar reports by trustworthy sources such as VICE News and Journeyman Pictures show that some regions, such as Crimea, have lost nearly all of the typical tourism trade since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014.

The article is featured in Russia! magazine. Author Sophia Tupolev contributes to the Mendeleyev Journal on language and culture, and she is the creator of a Russia advice portal, AskSophie! She also works for RT, and is the creator of Moscow’s Russian Conversation Club. Louise Dickson is a Moscow-based journalist. Follow Louise on Twitter @louisecdickson.

[Photo Guy]

Well it's official. The Mistral contract is dead and the warships will not be delivered.

Brass

Excellent. Glad to see that France did not cave in. Who can they sell the warships to? NATO would be my first choice... Or a NATO member. Or Sweden would be interesting.

[jone]

Switzerland comes to mind.

[Brasscasing]

Ukraine has stopped supplying critical components to the Russian military machine. Something the Russians have neither the technology or know how to replace.

This means the trickle of newer military equipment the Russians are able to produce is slowed even further.

Ukraine crisis: Why a lack of parts has hamstrung Russia's military

..."Russia's defence firms have been hit not only by Western sanctions but also by a breakdown in business ties with Ukraine."...

..."Last month, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin told parliament that Ukrainian components were used in the production of 186 types of Russian military equipment.

That is a serious problem, he admitted, and Moscow could resolve it only by 2018.

Back in June 2014, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ordered a halt to military co-operation with Russia - and that has shut down several projects."...



..."Ukraine hosts the design bureau of Antonov military transport planes. The economic freeze has blocked plans to deliver a new heavy transport plane, the An-70. And this month, Russia stopped producing another transport plane - the An-140.

In February, Russia closed another programme - Rokot space rockets, which had been putting military satellites into orbit.

The Russian navy has suffered too. It was awaiting three Project 22350 frigates (Admiral Gorshkov-class), but they did not arrive because Ukraine did not deliver the turbines for them."...

..."Communist-era production cycles involved defence plants in several Soviet republics, but they became independent states when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Since then, Russia has become dependent on Western electronic components - especially computers, vital for all modern armies."...

..."All Antonov planes have Ukrainian components. Experts say suspension of the An-70 programme will not affect the Russian army much, but the lack of components for An-140 production will be a problem."...




..."Ukraine has also been a key supplier of engine components.

In May, the Ukrainian company Motor-Sich stopped deliveries of helicopter engines for combat helicopters, but continued taking orders for civilian helicopters.

Mr Rogozin said Russia would strive to integrate engine production for the navy and air force, to reduce costs and move away from reliance on Ukrainian and Western equipment.

But a previous Russian attempt to reduce the military's reliance on Ukrainian equipment was only partly successful, Russian military expert Alexander Golts told the BBC."...

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33822821

The only way to show the world the true disrepair and (un)preparedness of the Russian military is to call Putin's bluff.

Force Putin to mobilize by conducting a NATO military build up for the purpose of a military intervention in Ukraine. With Russian financial recourses in ruins and his conventional/strategic forces no where near capable of engaging NATO forces with any hope of success Putin will have to back down/withdraw or bankrupt his country's already teetering economy.

Putin's food burning antics are starting to leave a 'bad taste' with an increasingly desperate Russian population. If the West adopt a multi-facaded  strategy of forcing Putin to respond militarily (which costs money) or lose face he won't be able to keep up.

Brass

[Larry1]

Apparently this analysis comes from The Economist magazine.

The Soviet Union came apart because it overstretched itself and ran out of money and ideas. Local elites saw no benefit in remaining part of a bankrupt country. It fragmented along the administrative borders of the 15 republics that made up the giant country.

 Yet there was no reason why the process had to stop there. Indeed, many of Russia’s regions—including Siberia, Ural, Karelia and Tatarstan—declared their “sovereignty” at the time. To prevent further disintegration Russia’s then president, Boris Yeltsin, came up with the idea of a federation, promising each region as much “sovereignty as it could swallow”. Yeltsin made this promise in Kazan, the ancient capital of Tatarstan, which acquired many attributes of a separate state: a president, a constitution, a flag and, most important, its own budget. In exchange, Tatarstan promised to stay part of Russia.

Mr Putin has reversed federalism, and turned Russia into a centralised state. He cancelled regional elections, imposed a “presidential” representative over the heads of governors and redistributed tax revenues in Moscow’s favour. But he did not build common institutions. The Russian state is seen not as an upholder of law but as a source of injustice and corruption.

 In the words of Mikhail Iampolski, a historian, Russia at present resembles a khanate in which local princes receive a licence to rule from the chief khan in the Kremlin. For the past decade the main job of the Moscow-appointed governors has been to provide votes for Mr Putin. In exchange they received a share of oil revenues and the right to rule as they see fit. Chechnya under Ramzan Kadyrov, a former warlord installed by Mr Putin, is a grotesque illustration of this. In the most recent presidential election, Chechnya provided 99.7% of its votes for Mr Putin with a turnout of 99.6%. In return, Mr Kadyrov receives subsidies and freedom to subject his people to his own “informal” taxes and Islamic rules. Moscow pays a dictatorial and corrupt Chechnya a vast due in return for Mr Kadyrov pretending to be part of Russia and pledging loyalty to Mr Putin.


If Mr Putin goes and the money runs out, Chechnya could be the first to break off.

 Tatarstan, home to 2m Muslim ethnic Tatars and 1.5m ethnic Russians, could declare itself the separate khanate it was in the 15th century. It has a strong identity, a diverse economy, which includes its own oil firm, and a well-educated ruling class. It would form a special relationship with Crimea, which Crimean Tartars (at last able to claim their historic land) would declare an independent state.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/could-russia-breakup-after-putin.html

The article goes on to speculate whether the Urals, Siberia, or the Far East might choose to separate from Russia.

My view is that this isn't likely to happen, at least outside Muslim regions of Russia. The people won't clamor for it because almost all of them are at a fever pitch of patriotism and extreme nationalism.  In addition, I can't imagine Putin allowing regions to leave.  He chafes at the many territories that were part of the USSR but seceded at its end. He would use the Russian army to prevent these territories from leaving the Russian Federation, just as Lincoln did to the seceding Southern states in 1861.

As Mao said - All power comes grows out of the barrel of a gun.

[mendeleyev]

At some point China will begin to tear off pieces of Russia. Despite all the declarations for cooperation between the two, there is a reason why the Kremlin continues to place great importance to the border troops who guard sections of Siberia and the Far East against the potential for Chinese, and other Asian efforts to regain territory lost to Russia in modern history.

In the news this week is the angst expressed by Russians in the Far East who are crapping in their collective pants over a new war monument that curiously seems to take on the form of the Chinese flag. No surprise--migration, legal and otherwise, from China is booming in the Russian Far East. Much of the now-Russian territory once belonged to China. If Moscow can argue that what once belonged to Russia (Crimea) for a short period in history is somehow then always Russian, then the Chinese can sing that same song all day long in the Russian East.

[fathertime]

At some point China will begin to tear off pieces of Russia.

Pure speculation, and wishful thinking.  The two nations are for the most part allies, and that bother some I guess. 


I've been hearing for years how California is going to become a part of Mexico because of the literally millions of Mexican migrants here.  That isn't happening either. 


A powerful nuclear nation like Russia isn't losing territory unless it decides to.  China has plenty of space (Ghost cities even), and their mainland population is likely going to shrink in the decades to come, unless they take on swarms from poorer nations. 


Fathertime!   

[Belvis]

Much of the now-Russian territory once belonged to China.

It's not the wishful thinking as fathertime proposed, it's just the zero knowledge of history, Siberian local peoples, China and psychology of the Chinese. 

[mendeleyev]

Neville, wrong again.

First off, I actually do not desire for China to expand. That they are trading allies is actually quite logical, and one wonders why it took so long although I do understand the prior lack of motivation.

Perhaps you and I have observed different security council discussions, seen different rapid response drills, or something is off with your logic. China has a surprisingly large force in the North. Russia has been modernizing her rapid rail forces in the East, and frankly, unless they are worried about Mongolia, you have no idea what you are writing about.

Have you been to Siberia or the Far East of Russia, Neville?

Sit tight and perhaps you will learn something.

The Russian Federation is divided into federal subjects and federal districts (9). The Far East is part of the Far Eastern Federal Region. It has a population of less than 7 million, yet covers a third of Russia. The capital is Khabarovsk (Хабаровск), in Siberia. It is a popular stop along the Trans Siberian and is less than 32 km/20 miles to the Chinese border. The population is around 560,000. The Chinese name for Khabarovsk, and it was Chinese for a long time, is Boli.

The Khabarovsk Bridge is featured on a Russian ruble note. Without looking, do you know which one it is? Can you name the river?

Of Russia's 9 federal districts, only 3 are in Asia, although some 51% of Russia lies in the Asian continent--there just isn't a lot of population in that great big space. To the south along the Pacific is the Primorsky Krai, (a part of this federal district) of which the Primorsky capital is Vladivostok, with a city population of around 550,000. In the latest attempt to resolve border conflicts, and the two have signed, then renegotiated, then signed a number of treaties, President Putin firmly resisted the Chinese attempts to reclaim Vladivostok. He did the only thing he could--because giving Vladivostok back to China would have cost Russia her largest Pacific trading port and main Pacific naval centre.

However, the Chinese have done two things recently: They have continued to broach the subject of what Bejing terms as "unequal treaties." There are issues which the Chinese feel were not fully resolved in 2008, mainly border agreements which continue to stick in China's mind as being unfair, but necessary, at the time of negotiation.

The other thing that China has done, and it irks Vladimir Putin to no end, is the refusal to recognize Crimea as part of Russia. Why might that be? Simple: If Crimea can separate from Ukraine, then Tibet should logically have the same option to separate from China. China simply cannot applaud a referrundum, even one as flawed as Crimea, without then admitting that Tibet should have the same right.

Mr. Putin on one hand understands this, yet he gave up a lot in negotiations for gas when pivoting to China. Not to mention the fact that no sooner had Russia announced to the world the scope of the deal, China surprised Mosocw by quietly demanding, and getting, a further sweetening of the deal in China's favour. (So much for China's alleged "unequal treaties" theory if you ask me--but that fits in the Eastern worldview.)

Now, lets talk turkey: The GDP of the neighborhood, meaning the region surrounding Vladivostok, including South Korea, China, and Japan, is almost five times greater than the GDP of Russia. However, no matter how affluent the neighborhood, a quarter or more of Russians in the area live below Russia's poverty line. This means that Chinese migration into Russia, and it exists, is not by a lower educated working class seeking unskilled work, but by those with the means to start businesses and to conduct trade across the region. Those who stay are not just living in the shadows, but rather they are folk with ideas for change and improvement. Given the system of economic controls the country normally uses to determine who can, and who cannot operate a business, this type of migration makes the Kremlin nervous, especially since Moscow is so far away.

Khabarovsk and Vladivostok are regional border cities (combined population just over a million), yet when you look at the main Chinese provinces to the south, the population is almost 120 million--just in those border provinces. You still believe that China has no interest in expansion?

The main form of "control" at the moment is the visa regime. Chinese citizens traveling to Russia need a visa, and while crossing is not overly difficult, visa violations are costly. Often immigrants from the Central Asian republics, who can enter without a visa, are mistaken for being Chinese.

Like Russia and India, Russia and China merely have a marriage of convenience, and their long history proves that these bonds are easily broken or changed depending on circumstances. At heart, ethnic Russians trust neither dark skinned Indians, nor slant-eyed Chinese. There are times however when you dance with whoever is willing--until something more interesting comes along.

[JayH]

Apparently this analysis comes from The Economist magazine.

http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/08/could-russia-breakup-after-putin.html

The article goes on to speculate whether the Urals, Siberia, or the Far East might choose to separate from Russia.

My view is that this isn't likely to happen, at least outside Muslim regions of Russia. The people won't clamor for it because almost all of them are at a fever pitch of patriotism and extreme nationalism.  In addition, I can't imagine Putin allowing regions to leave.  He chafes at the many territories that were part of the USSR but seceded at its end. He would use the Russian army to prevent these territories from leaving the Russian Federation, just as Lincoln did to the seceding Southern states in 1861.

As Mao said - All power comes grows out of the barrel of a gun.

Not to sure that it will not happen-- Putin has created the litmus for the process.I definately do not agree that there is no dissent or desire to be free of Moscow.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine was the start of the end-- and it is all Putin & Kremlin craziness that has created the situation.A military defeat in Ukraine will precipitate a general move to get rid of Moscow for many Russian "citizens" !
AS I HAVE SAID TIME AFTER TIME, THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

The Russian economy is in dire shape ever since Western countries imposed economic sanctions over its annexation of Crimea. The exit of Chechnya will have a huge impact on neighboring Dagestan. It could be followed by Tatarstan declaring itself an independent Khanate. Siberia could revive its own sovereignty, while the Ural could form a republic.

Putin has reversed federalism in Russia
The Soviet Union collapsed because it had overstretched itself and run out of money. The local leaders saw no benefit in being part of a bankrupt nation. Many regions such as Tatarstan, Siberia and Ural had declared their "sovereignty" at the time. But the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin promised these regions "as much sovereignty as they could swallow" in exchange for staying with the Russian Federation.

However, Vladimir Putin has reversed federalism in Russia, turning it into a centralized state. He has imposed "presidential" representatives for each region, eliminated regional elections, and changed the way tax revenues are distributed in Moscow's favor. In short, Russia of today is like a Khanate where local representatives have been given a license to rule by the chief Khan in the Kremlin.


 
The primary job of the Kremlin-appointed presidential representatives is to bring votes for Vladimir Putin. In exchange, they are granted freedom to rule the way they want, plus a share of oil revenues. Vyacheslav Volodin, Putin's deputy chief of staff, recently said, "No Putin, no Russia." If Putin goes out and Russia runs out of money, Chechnya would be the first to break off, says The Economist.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/08/russia-under-putin-to-break-up/

Podcast: Russia's Fragile Federation

It's the Kremlin's worst nightmare. That the Russian Federation shares the fate of the Soviet Union and disintegrates.

Far-fetched? Yeah, probably. But the fear appears to be honestly felt.

And as calls for regional autonomy get louder and bolder -- from Kaliningrad to Siberia, from Karelia to Tatarstan -- Vladimir Putin's regime has moved to further tighten the screws. And this is only serving to spark more resentment in the regions.

Are the Kremlin's fears of federalism making its biggest fear more likely?

On the latest Power Vertical Podcast, we discuss Russia's fragile federation. Joining me are co-host Mark Galeotti, a professor at New York University, an expert on Russia's security services, and author of the blog In Moscow's Shadows; and longtime Russia-watcher Paul Goble, author of the blog Window on Eurasia.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russian-television-whistleblowers-kremlin-propaganda/27178109.html

[fathertime]

In the news this week is the angst expressed by Russians in the Far East who are crapping in their collective pants over a new war monument that curiously seems to take on the form of the Chinese flag. 

Neville, wrong again.

First off, I actually do not desire for China to expand. 

I don't believe you.  You do want China to expand into Russia, or you wouldn't have phrased your post the way you did.


Fathertime!   

[jone]

I see Mendy's post as much more than a Chinese desire for 'The Northern Resource Area'.  His talking points relate to the bigger questions about the pressures on the current administration and the point of view of the Russian leadership.  It has nothing to do with desire to see Russia break apart. 

I have read Mendy's work for a couple of years now.  No one, of the Western ilk, loves Russia more than Mendy.  But he is an honest journalist. A rare occurrence in Russia these days.

As we see more and more of the Kremlin control of the press, men of courage, like Mendy, stand out from the crowd.  Don't stand out too much, Mendy.

[mendeleyev]

I don't believe you.  You do want China to expand into Russia, or you wouldn't have phrased your post the way you did.

I have noticed that you failed to answer my questions, again a demonstration of you willingness to expel hot air opinions, but from a position of ignorance. That seems to be your avatar.

A few years back, and I wrote about it then, I was among a handful of journalists who traveled with then-president Medvedev to China. We made that trip via rail. Prime Minister Medvedev is an avid photographer and he spent a lot of time among the press pool that made the journey. If you cannot fall in love with Siberia and the Far East on a train, then you simply will never love that part of the world.

The elderly friend who was my sponsor/godfather when I entered the Orthodox Church had grown up in a region which had historically been Chinese, then the area was part of Russia, and later was ceded to China after conflict along the border between China and the Soviet Union. One cannot have these sort of ties to just wishfully hope that conflict arises and borderlines change again.

Both Putin and Medvedev have extensive experience with China. Both understand that China needs energy resources, something it lacks at the moment--thus the pipeline to China, from the very area that China covets. If you ask Medvedev, and he and Putin are close, the Kremlin understands that they are building a pipeline that could someday be in jeopardy should China have intentions on the area. The ramp up of Russia's rail response units, and the building of bases with air support capability, is not being done because Russia is nervous about North Korea or Mongolia.

Simpletons sometimes argue that China is rarely the aggressor, and that China would never covet something that they used to own. Tell that to Mr. Putin--he is not taking any chances. What he does most assuredly understand is that China is very patient, and the Chinese tend to act in their own interests when the time is right, not before. Russia's modernization of the Far East and her defense of the region is designed to make the Chinese realize that the time will never be right. However, the Chinese also understand that all the preparations in the world cannot negate situations of massive economic and/or political instability.

Now Neville, have you done your homework? I'd like to see your answers on the name of that great river, and the denomination of ruble with the picture of the bridge. If you know nothing about an area, then please refrain from sharing unfounded analysis about it.