Civilian Airliner Shot Down 298 Dead-- Consequences

[JayH]

Civilian Airliner Shot Down 298 Dead-- Consequences

The evidence points to the pro-Russian sponsored terrorists -although on Day1 it is not clear what hardware was used to shoot the aircraft down .
28 Australians were on this aircraft--plus a number with Australian residency . At a press conference a few minutes ago the Australian Prime Minister laid the blame squarely on Russia and its state sponsored terrorists who have committed this crime.There is no doubt that Australia  will  set out to bring the perpetrators  to justice-- and that Australia will support an action against them.
Chances are that will be in support of an international effort-- worth noting is the Australian special services are the most respected  at what they do. They are also up to date--having been in Iraq and more recently Afghanistan.
It is most likely that Ukraine will now get military help from the west.What will Russia do?
My guess is that Putin's bluff is about to be called in a way he never anticipated. Already sanctions are ramping up over the Crimea and Russian support of terrorists in Ukraine-chances are they are about to get extremely serious.
As it stands-- this next week will be the last window of opportunity for Putin to run his wider invasion of Ukraine -- and thus his bargaining chip to keep the Crimea will be lost.
This inhumane act only emphasises what a pariah state Russia is and is about to be treated as such .

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-updates/malaysia-airlines-plane-mh17-shot-down-on-ukrainerussia-border/story-fnizu68q-1226992889461

Later news conference he used much stronger language in laying it squarely on Russia being the blame.

[I/O]

Jay: Don't jump to too many conclusions including any influence or capability Australia may have (which is in fact next to jack sch!t). I don't believe Russia will lose much out of this as there is not enough dead from those countries powerful enough to do anything about it.

What intrigues me at this early stage is the attempts to fane naivety - the type of equipment required to bring down an airliner at 33000 ft is pretty sophisticated as are those who operate it - It's difficult to accept they didn't have more than enough equipment, knowhow and forethought to know pretty well what they were shooting at....

[JayH]

I/O    --  I read it as we will be applying maximum pressure on our traditional "allies" . The number of Australians murdered here exceed 9/11 . It is a national tragedy. I see Abbots words at   4.40pm press conference as a pre cursor to international action. The US needs to be "asked" these days-- and as we have seen on the forums the  US soft cock wimps  are happy to bare their arses for Putin to do as he pleases. I think that time is over -the civilian deaths of Australian,US,British and Canadians--plus the large number of Dutch and other EU  citizens  will not leave  Ukraine alone for much longer.We shall soon see.

On other relevant issues-- some very heavy equipment headed back over the Russian border at speed--makes you wonder why !!  Be on standby for the Kremlin "who us?"  routine.

[sleepycat]

Not inviting the Little Man to the G20 meet in Brisbane will be a good start.

[Gator]

Based on past experience do not expect an apology from anyone.    In fact, Putin is diverting blame to Ukraine. 

  Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine bore responsibility for the downing of the plane, saying it would not have happened if Kiev had not resumed a military campaign against separatists. 

   

Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101838653#.

Such absurdity reminds me of some discussions with RW who try to convince me their mistake is my fault.  The reason Ukraine is conducting military operations is to eliminate an insurgency supported by Russia.

Nevertheless, Putin is correct that military conflict collaterally kills civilians.  Unfortunate yet inevitable.  It is one matter to kill Ukrainian civilians; it is another to kill 298 civilians from countries not involved in the conflict.

[Gator]

What intrigues me at this early stage is the attempts to fane naivety - the type of equipment required to bring down an airliner at 33000 ft is pretty sophisticated as are those who operate it - It's difficult to accept they didn't have more than enough equipment, knowhow and forethought to know pretty well what they were shooting at....

Because of the high altitude, this presumably involved a Buk missile system.  A Buk unit typically consists of highly trained individuals and multiple vehicles including highly sophisticated radar both for target acquisition and missile tracking.   Such systems are not "point and shoot" weapons.   I doubt the local renegades had the necessary training to operate the system. 

While it seems apparent that Russia (hence Putin) has supported the insurgency with weaponry and advisers, it is also apparent that Putin did not supply enough centrally controlled advisers and operatives to prevent idiots from making such a tragic mistake of attacking an unidentified aircraft.   

[Faux Pas]

Because of the high altitude, this presumably involved a Buk missile system.  A Buk unit typically consists of highly trained individuals and multiple vehicles including highly sophisticated radar both for target acquisition and missile tracking.   Such systems are not "point and shoot" weapons.   I doubt the local renegades had the necessary training to operate the system. 

While it seems apparent that Russia (hence Putin) has supported the insurgency with weaponry and advisers, it is also apparent that Putin did not supply enough centrally controlled advisers and operatives to prevent idiots from making such a tragic mistake of attacking an unidentified aircraft.

It is conceivable that they shot at a different plane and the missile went errant. Depending on the tracking they used, at 33K feet it could easily happen

[tfcrew]

Similar event...

http://www.newsweek.com/newsweek-rewind-when-korean-air-lines-flight-007-was-shot-down-259653

Reagan was pres then..Americans died... and nothing happened.

There will be wailing and gnashing of teeth

[CanadaMan]

Because of the high altitude, this presumably involved a Buk missile system.  A Buk unit typically consists of highly trained individuals and multiple vehicles including highly sophisticated radar both for target acquisition and missile tracking.   Such systems are not "point and shoot" weapons.   I doubt the local renegades had the necessary training to operate the system. 

While it seems apparent that Russia (hence Putin) has supported the insurgency with weaponry and advisers, it is also apparent that Putin did not supply enough centrally controlled advisers and operatives to prevent idiots from making such a tragic mistake of attacking an unidentified aircraft.

I'm not following you Gator.

In your first paragraph you seem to be saying
the locals couldn't have pulled off such an operation.

In your second paragraph you seem to be saying
local idiots pulled off the operation.

[Gator]

I'm not following you Gator.

In your first paragraph you seem to be saying
the locals couldn't have pulled off such an operation.

Correct.   Either trained Russian operators were needed or Russian training of the locals.

In your second paragraph you seem to be saying
local idiots pulled off the operation.

Nope.  The combination of Russian operators and/or Russian training of locals was not adequate  to prevent mistakes.  Either that or those in control of the Buk were too far removed from the central chain of command to require clearance to fire the missile.   

It is difficult to imagine that the leaders of the separatists would approve such a strike if they knew the risk.  It is impossible to imagine that Putin or his designate would approve such.

[Gator]

It is conceivable that they shot at a different plane and the missile went errant. Depending on the tracking they used, at 33K feet it could easily happen

I read a little about the Buk system and it seems too sophisticated for this to happen.  I could be wrong.  IMO the more likely explanation is that the operators were inadequately trained or the chain of command did not require clearance before firing.  Rebels are not known for centrally controlled organizations.

Hopefully an investigation will document what happened.   

[Boethius]

There is a good explanation on the other forum by someone with expertise in the area.  Not impossible, or even improbable, according to him.

[jone]

A General from Nato stated in June that Separatists were being trained on the BUK system early in June by their Russian masters.  I was wondering if anyone could find that article as it seems pertinent now.

Oops.  Here's a follow-up on ABC today:

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-general-warned-of-russian-anti-aircraft-training-for-separatists

[Shadow]

The plane contained 192 Dutch citizens.
There for I am happy that the Dutch Prime Minister Rutte has requested everyone to remain calm and stay away from speculation and blaming. An international and independent inquiry will be done to bring those responsible to justice.

Victims are from all provinces, and many people have lost family or friends.

[The Natural]

The plane contained 192 Dutch citizens.
There for I am happy that the Dutch Prime Minister Rutte has requested everyone to remain calm and stay away from speculation and blaming. An international and independent inquiry will be done to bring those responsible to justice.

Victims are from all provinces, and many people have lost family or friends.

I'm sorry for Your loss of countrymen and women, Shadow. Prime minister Rutte was very wise in issuing this statement.

[Muzh]

An international and independent inquiry will be done to bring those responsible to justice.

 

Victims are from all provinces, and many people have lost family or friends.

That is a FACT, jack.

[Shadow]

 




That is a FACT, jack.

Too bad you feel that Ukraine is incapable of allowing such an inquiry.

[Muzh]

Too bad you feel that Ukraine is incapable of allowing such an inquiry.

Oh, Ukraine would be more than willing. The problem here is that vital information, like the black box, has been commandeered by the murderers and sent to their masters in Moscow. And guess what will happen when the Russian Ministry of Propaganda gets a hold of that? Here's a sample.

In response, Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin did not directly address charges that Moscow bears responsibility and was complicit in the missile attack. Agreeing that an international investigation is needed, Churkin criticized those who he said are “trying to prejudge the outcome with broad statements and insinuations,” and he accused the Ukrainian government of failing to warn international aviation to avoid the conflict area in eastern Ukraine.
[/color]
[/color]“Why did Ukrainian aviation dispatchers send [the Malaysian plane] to an area of strife, where there were antiaircraft systems in operation?” he asked.
[/color]

[/color]It's Ukraine's fault, of course.

[onlyFSU4me]

Too bad you feel that Ukraine is incapable of allowing such an inquiry.

 Right now it is the pro-Russian terrorists who are not allowing such an inquiry. I'm watching an interview right now on CNN live where they are interviewing a fellow on site who is saying they are being met with hostility by the terrorists and not allowed to see the whole crash site.

[The Natural]

Shadow:

"An international and independent inquiry will be done to bring those responsible to justice."

 

Do you really think that response is appropriate Muzh? Shadow has lost 192 of his countrymen/women in a terrorist attack.
How would you feel if People around the world rolled on the floor laughing after 911? No, as I remember it, there were tremendous symphaty and support all the way until Bush started his stupid war on terrorism (war on those who disagree With the neo-cons)

[Faux Pas]

I read a little about the Buk system and it seems too sophisticated for this to happen.  I could be wrong.  IMO the more likely explanation is that the operators were inadequately trained or the chain of command did not require clearance before firing.  Rebels are not known for centrally controlled organizations.

Hopefully an investigation will document what happened.   

The BUK system has the ability to track and lock 3 different ways depending on need and conditions. It comes with radar in which a plane is essentially a bleep and dot on a screen. None of the 3 ways are full proof especially if there are optional targets in the vicinity. It's very possible and likely it was a mistake. It wasn't a mistake however that, somebody wanted to bring down a plane

[sleepycat]

Heard on the radio that apparently the Russian foreign ministry is 'very angry' that Australian PM Abbott said the Australian government has already decided which side is responsible for the downing of the plane. 

Jokes aside, let's hope Russia is far too weak economically to retaliate against Australia on the trade front.

[Boethius]

Do you import Russian gas?  Oligarchs with overpainted tarts in tow?  If not, then you have nothing to worry about on the economic front.

[JayH]

A summary--

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/07/18/world/europe/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh17-q-a.html?_r=0

9:34am: Foreign Minister Julie Bishop says Australia has the right, as a nation, to be "disgusted by the reaction from Russia so far",

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh17-shot-down-over-ukraine-near-russian-border-20140718-3c4nl.html#ixzz37sAjskd2
The Australian PM Abbot has laid the blame squarely at Russia's feet.Forget the diplomatic speak that usually accompanies interaction-- the message is as blunt as it could be.
Obama has been reserved in response-- but wait-- wheels are turning.

http://tsn.ua/svit/svit-ne-priymaye-poyasnen-kremlya-zvinuvachuyuchi-rosiyu-v-ozbroyuvanni-boyovikiv-359770.html

[sleepycat]

It seems unusual that amongst all the western leaders, it is the Australian PM who appears to be the most vocal and doing much of the sabre rattling. A convenient distraction from his recent political woes perhaps?