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Author Topic: More Bad News for Russia  (Read 371081 times)

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Online jone

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More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5250 on: March 19, 2017, 11:15:44 AM »
Dear friend Belvis,

Don't drink the Kool-aid.

The extension of the OPEC deal simply cemented Russia into not exporting as much crude as it had in the past.  And if you think arms sales makes up for lost revenues in oil exports, I have a bridge in Valdivostok to sell you.  I do think that Russia is in a huge bind with liquidity because of the price of oil.  Russia's deal to not export crude has not had the desired effect of increasing oil prices.

Pull your country's budget for 2016 and 2017 and see what price the people who made those budgets thought oil would be selling at.

I really wish the Russian people well, but I believe that the Kremlin is lying to the world, and, especially its own people.  That's what happened with the Soviet Union - which Putin dreams of re-creating.
The world is a book:  Those who don't travel read only the first page.

Offline Belvis

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5251 on: March 19, 2017, 04:16:28 PM »
Pull your country's budget for 2016 and 2017 and see what price the people who made those budgets thought oil would be selling at.
The budget is based on 40$/barrel with the deficit covered from the federal funds. Volume of the funds is sufficient to keep this rule for 3 years, at least, and longer at higher oil price. Then we'll see what can be done, print more money, make structural reforms in economics or just restrict consumption. Or may be we'll choose the collapse, depends on mood  8)

I believe that the Kremlin is lying to the world, and, especially its own people.  That's what happened with the Soviet Union - which Putin dreams of re-creating.
I believe you posses the great talent of reading Putin's mind. Usually not so talented high ranked men complain that they don't understand the intentions of the russian president. You has foreseen the russian economics will collapse soon so you should not worry about Putin's plans  :rolleyes:

Offline Anotherkiwi

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5252 on: March 19, 2017, 06:44:58 PM »
Dear JayH

Once again, I wish to point out that I'm no fan of some Kremlin policies - esp the physical interference in Ukraine, but I must point out the inaccuracy of your article  - the stats shown for the cities ARE probably accurate, but the conclusions...well..

Please explain why

Sochi

Krasnodar

Krasnoyarsk

Novosibirsk

I can't comment on the two in Siberia, but I've visited both Sochi and Krasnodar.  Sochi has a magnificent location and the best climate in Russia, as well as having had the Winter Olympic Games just three years ago, so it's not surprising that it may have grown at the expense of cities and towns in other regions.  Krasnodar, to me, also has a superb location, with the beautiful Kuban River flowing through the city and, like Sochi, good transport connections to other cities in Russia and the rest of the world.  The central city gives off a bustling vibe which I found very rare in other Russian cities.  Although she hasn't posted in a long time, it's the original home town of our member Doll.

There is one thing which appears to be lacking in both these places - the old-style Khrushchev apartment blocks, which are the biggest eyesore in virtually every FSU city.  Both have modern residential buildings which look like they were designed by people who know what they're doing, rather than by a committee of apparatchiks with the architectural IQ of a penguin.  Have a look at some of my photos in the Gallery here and you'll see what I mean.

I'll qualify my comments by saying that my visit was in 2010.  While some things will have obviously changed since then, I can't believe that the underlying dynamic in both cities will have been one of them.

Online jone

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5253 on: March 19, 2017, 08:08:25 PM »
The budget is based on 40$/barrel with the deficit covered from the federal funds. Volume of the funds is sufficient to keep this rule for 3 years, at least, and longer at higher oil price. Then we'll see what can be done, print more money, make structural reforms in economics or just restrict consumption. Or may be we'll choose the collapse, depends on mood  8)
I believe you posses the great talent of reading Putin's mind. Usually not so talented high ranked men complain that they don't understand the intentions of the russian president. You has foreseen the russian economics will collapse soon so you should not worry about Putin's plans  :rolleyes:

I am very happy to see that you've admitted that Russia is now SUBSIDIZING oil production.   Everything about the Russian budget is smoke and mirrors.  You may wonder why investors like me pulled out of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.  The answer is that it was impossible to depend on any numbers coming from the Kremlin.   

Russia had 1/2 Trillion USD in a petro dollar reserve fund as recently as 2012.  Now, if if can even be believed, Russia has 20 billion of it left.

The market speculation is that Putin has hoarded so much of the available cash to himself and his cronies that there is virtually none left.  You talk about three years before it comes crashing down.  I have spoken to a number of people that believe Russia will be a beggar nation by the end of the current fiscal year. 

That is a travesty.  No infrastructure is being pursued.  The budget is targeted towards defense spending and the building of a KGB type infrastructure.  And what happens when the government no longer has enough money to pay for pensions?

No, the budget that I have read, when compared to previous budgets, just doesn't pass the sniff test.  Sources of revenue are being invented to cover up the deficits.  And I am a layperson.  Imagine how this looks to professional analysts.  Where is your critical thinking?

Looks like another five year plan to me.
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Offline ML

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5254 on: March 19, 2017, 08:47:41 PM »
You may wonder why investors like me pulled out of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.  The answer is that it was impossible to depend on any numbers coming from the Kremlin. 

This has always been true
No infrastructure is being pursued. 

The bridge . . .
Ban shredded cheese. Make America Grate Again

Offline fathertime

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5255 on: March 19, 2017, 10:57:43 PM »



No, the budget that I have read, when compared to previous budgets, just doesn't pass the sniff test.  Sources of revenue are being invented to cover up the deficits.  And I am a layperson.  Imagine how this looks to professional analysts.  Where is your critical thinking?





Where is YOUR critical thinking?  Several years ago you insisted russia was on the verge of collapse.  Glad nobody held their breath at your ridiculous and obviously incorrect statement.  Your 'sniff test' is meaningless. 


Fathertime! 
« Last Edit: March 19, 2017, 11:05:49 PM by fathertime »
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5256 on: March 19, 2017, 11:51:10 PM »


There is one thing which appears to be lacking in both these places - the old-style Khrushchev apartment blocks, which are the biggest eyesore in virtually every FSU city.  Both have modern residential buildings which look like they were designed by people who know what they're doing, rather than by a committee of apparatchiks with the architectural IQ of a penguin.  Have a look at some of my photos in the Gallery here and you'll see what I mean.

I'll qualify my comments by saying that my visit was in 2010.  While some things will have obviously changed since then, I can't believe that the underlying dynamic in both cities will have been one of them.

Most certainly Sochi has Khrushchyovka - they just aren't to be found right on the coast..( Go north or South of Sochi - on the train and some have been built in GREAT locations and command 'daft' prices.) They are built in the numerous valleys that run perpendicular to the coast

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchyovka
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Online jone

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5257 on: March 20, 2017, 04:02:08 AM »


No, the budget that I have read, when compared to previous budgets, just doesn't pass the sniff test.  Sources of revenue are being invented to cover up the deficits.  And I am a layperson.  Imagine how this looks to professional analysts.  Where is your critical thinking?





Where is YOUR critical thinking?  Several years ago you insisted russia was on the verge of collapse.  Glad nobody held their breath at your ridiculous and obviously incorrect statement.  Your 'sniff test' is meaningless. 


Fathertime!

Haha. So are you.
The world is a book:  Those who don't travel read only the first page.

Offline fathertime

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5258 on: March 20, 2017, 06:35:04 AM »
Haha. So are you.


Yes, true, but not to you!   :D


Fathertime!
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline Gator

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5259 on: March 20, 2017, 06:40:01 AM »
I am very happy to see that you've admitted that Russia is now SUBSIDIZING oil production.   Everything about the Russian budget is smoke and mirrors.  You may wonder why investors like me pulled out of Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.  The answer is that it was impossible to depend on any numbers coming from the Kremlin.   

Russia had 1/2 Trillion USD in a petro dollar reserve fund as recently as 2012.  Now, if if can even be believed, Russia has 20 billion of it left.

The market speculation is that Putin has hoarded so much of the available cash to himself and his cronies that there is virtually none left.  You talk about three years before it comes crashing down.  I have spoken to a number of people that believe Russia will be a beggar nation by the end of the current fiscal year. 

That is a travesty.  No infrastructure is being pursued.  The budget is targeted towards defense spending and the building of a KGB type infrastructure.  And what happens when the government no longer has enough money to pay for pensions?

No, the budget that I have read, when compared to previous budgets, just doesn't pass the sniff test.  Sources of revenue are being invented to cover up the deficits.  And I am a layperson.  Imagine how this looks to professional analysts.  Where is your critical thinking?

Looks like another five year plan to me.


Russia is doing better than some other oil producing states, e. g. Venezuela.  Algeria has spent 40% of its capital reserves over the past few years. 

Meanwhile  China is not engaging in an arms race, avoiding the submarine for submarine mentality.  The Chinese instead focus on economics, and their strategy is to run all of us into the ground.  And China is reaching out to team with the smaller nations of the world. 

Will this work?  Did the CCCP collapse from losing the arms race or because of economic forces? 

Offline fathertime

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5260 on: March 20, 2017, 06:49:31 AM »

After all of Trump's rhetoric, I'm curious to see what he actually does.  If Trump tries to create a one sided agreement,like we may have gotten away with in the past, I don't think it will work. China has too many ways to strike back.

An interesting factor in this may be that we have an illegal workforce that hard line republicans are attempting to deport.  Shortly we may see if Americans are willing to do those jobs, if illegals actually start leaving/get deported in great numbers. 


China prepares to counter any U.S. trade penalties: sources




China's government has been seeking advice from its think-tanks and policy advisers on how to counter potential trade penalties from U.S. President Donald Trump, getting ready for the worst, even as they hope for business-like negotiations.

The policy advisers believe the Trump administration is most likely to impose higher tariffs on targeted sectors where China has a big surplus with the United States, such as steel and furniture, or on state-owned firms.

China could respond with actions such as finding alternative suppliers of agriculture products or machinery and manufactured goods, while cutting its exports of consumer staples such as mobile phones or laptops, they said.....

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-trade-idUSKBN16R0PW




Fathertime!

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Offline Anotherkiwi

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5261 on: March 20, 2017, 05:13:19 PM »
Most certainly Sochi has Khrushchyovka - they just aren't to be found right on the coast..( Go north or South of Sochi - on the train and some have been built in GREAT locations and command 'daft' prices.) They are built in the numerous valleys that run perpendicular to the coast

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khrushchyovka

Thanks for that, moby.  It was more a case of not seeing any in what I considered the city itself.  Despite the metropolitan area supposedly stretching for a hundred kilometres along the Black Sea coast, the central city itself is far smaller, and seemed much more modern.  I would guess, also, that many Krushchyovka in Sochi would have been demolished before the Olympic Games, lest visitors might think that these were still standard housing.  :P

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5262 on: March 20, 2017, 07:49:34 PM »
Thanks for that, moby.  It was more a case of not seeing any in what I considered the city itself.  Despite the metropolitan area supposedly stretching for a hundred kilometres along the Black Sea coast, the central city itself is far smaller, and seemed much more modern.  I would guess, also, that many Krushchyovka in Sochi would have been demolished before the Olympic Games, lest visitors might think that these were still standard housing.  :P

The Airport, Olympic games and F1 are actually held in Adler. - 30 Kms to the south of Sochi ..There's plenty of Krushchyovka - but the route from the airport to the Olympic Park - you'd need Binoculars to see them from the window of a chauffeured Maybach ;)
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Online jone

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5263 on: March 20, 2017, 08:17:24 PM »

Russia is doing better than some other oil producing states, e. g. Venezuela.  Algeria has spent 40% of its capital reserves over the past few years. 

Meanwhile  China is not engaging in an arms race, avoiding the submarine for submarine mentality.  The Chinese instead focus on economics, and their strategy is to run all of us into the ground.  And China is reaching out to team with the smaller nations of the world. 

Will this work?  Did the CCCP collapse from losing the arms race or because of economic forces?

Curious to know what your take is on the Russian reserves.  They were destitute and are now claiming liquidity.  Doesn't that strike you as odd?  What seems to have changed?    The parabolic curve that they were on that was like a plane, out of control, headed for a crash, all of a sudden the government claims to have righted and is flying in the clouds again. 
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Offline JayH

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5264 on: March 20, 2017, 10:40:17 PM »
Ah--if only Moby was half way across !! :clapping:
BRIDGE IN THE CRIMEA: THE SMALL STORM HAS STARTED TO DESTROY THE DESIGN



These pipes are designed to protect the construction from waves during storms. They are kind of breakwaters, but even the breakwaters have demolished. Following the information of witnesses, not only the pipes, but even the cranes, tractors and a lot of construction material float in the sea:

Источник: http://www.amn.com.ua/podiyi/vot-vam-y-most-v-krym-malejshyj-shtorm-nachal-razrushat-konstruktsyyu-vydeo/

Elements of the Kerch bridge covered the entire coast.


« Last Edit: March 20, 2017, 10:45:54 PM by JayH »
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
Слава Украине! Слава героям слава!Слава Україні! Слава героям!
 translated as: Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!!!  is a Ukrainian greeting slogan being used now all over Ukraine to signify support for a free independent Ukraine

Online msmob

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5265 on: March 21, 2017, 02:58:57 AM »
Ah--if only Moby was half way across !! :clapping:
BRIDGE IN THE CRIMEA: THE SMALL STORM HAS STARTED TO DESTROY THE DESIGN

JayH - as the first comment on this video says :" the Ukrainian press will make headlines that a Bridge was falling down  :D - He hasn't heard how readily you lap up such 'news'



It's taken from a series of video blogs about the construction of the bridge.







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Offline GQBlues

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5266 on: March 21, 2017, 02:27:41 PM »
I can't really comment on the rest of Russia other than Novosibirsk. Even then, it would be purely anecdotal based on our close relationship with friends living there who had been coming to LA to visit with us with frequency.

Many of my wife's classmates are actually doing very well. Many had already bought homes, and some actually have flourishing careers. One guy had invested his savings and now owns his own construction/hard flooring center.

Every time any of these guys come for a visit, they are usually ready financially to spend their monies to do everything and anything they can while here. Never shy about springing for their own respective expenses despite the higher exchange rates with the dollar.

One of my wife's male classmate came with his girlfriend presently living in St Pete. She, too..is currently working as a designer and a distributor for a paint company. Apparently none of them have any problems getting their visas, just as my in-laws experienced.

We are told that Novosibirsk had been actively doing a lot of construction and renovations...

I peeked at Russian unemployment rate, and this seem to support their stories...

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/unemployment-rate

It looks pretty steady to me. They even have a higher labor work force per population percentage than the US.
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Offline whynotme

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5267 on: March 21, 2017, 07:01:32 PM »
There is one thing which appears to be lacking in both these places - the old-style Khrushchev apartment blocks, which are the biggest eyesore in virtually every FSU city.  Both have modern residential buildings which look like they were designed by people who know what they're doing, rather than by a committee of apparatchiks with the architectural IQ of a penguin.  Have a look at some of my photos in the Gallery here and you'll see what I mean.

In defense of the Khrushchevkas. Due them millions had allowed separate habitation in postwar II period. People didn't pay for them out of their own pocket. In my opinion, even now, when they've outlived their operational life, they aren't worse than American cardboard houses, which cost a lot of money.

Offline JayH

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5268 on: March 22, 2017, 04:03:24 PM »
The never ending stream of "mysterious" accidents & deaths of Russians via "heart attacks" and jumping out of buildings continues .Amazing how these deaths are never fully explained -- and how the common thread is that all these people are unpalatable at any given time to the regime of Putin and his kleptocrat cronies !

Lawyer for family of Russian whistleblower falls from fourth floor
Hermitage Capital sent a press release stating Gorokhov had been “thrown from the fourth floor of his apartment building” on Tuesday, but did not give any further details. Browder did not respond to an emailed request for further comment.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/22/lawyer-for-family-of-russian-whistleblower-seriously-injured-after-fall
SLAVA UKRAYINI  ! HEROYAM SLAVA!!!!
Слава Украине! Слава героям слава!Слава Україні! Слава героям!
 translated as: Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!!!  is a Ukrainian greeting slogan being used now all over Ukraine to signify support for a free independent Ukraine

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5269 on: Today at 02:57:39 AM »
Really hate to disappoint the Russian bashers, but the Russian economy will show a positive GDP this year. The rouble was the best performing currency for 2016 (currently down to around 57 from a high of 80 in 2015).and the RTS was up 50% for fiscal year 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-28/here-are-the-best-and-worst-performing-assets-of-2016.

You can also add Kazan and Belgorod to the previous list of cities on the rise, and Moscow is continually putting touches on its renovation. 

Ranching and agriculture are 2 viable emerging industries that had previously been non-existent in Russia. As far as defense spending, Russia will not make the same mistake as the Soviets did; apples and oranges to be honest, but Russia will still need to keep at least moving in step with modern technology.

Consumer spending is at its highest since Russia took back Crimea, foreign debt is at an all-time low, and there is plenty of money left in Russia's reserve funds. There have even been times when the government has replenished the fund during the last 2-3 years.

Ukraine is stilll a failed state because of Ukrainians.

Is Russia out of the woods? No, but, I think that it has turned an important corner.

« Last Edit: Today at 03:04:16 AM by Yes »

Offline Boethius

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5270 on: Today at 03:18:01 AM »
Who are all these Russia bashers?  I read a rather dispassionate view of the economy.
There was a door to which I found no key: There was the veil through which I might not see. - Omar Khayyam

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5271 on: Today at 03:43:16 AM »
Quote
Ukraine is stilll a failed state because of Ukrainians.


Well, I wouldn't expect any type of deep analysis from you.  There are many reasons why Ukraine is flailing.  But it is not because of Ukrainians.   What an asinine and simplistic statement.
There was a door to which I found no key: There was the veil through which I might not see. - Omar Khayyam

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Re: More Bad News for Russia
« Reply #5272 on: Today at 03:51:26 AM »
Really hate to disappoint the Russian bashers, but the Russian economy will show a positive GDP this year. The rouble was the best performing currency for 2016 (currently down to around 57 from a high of 80 in 2015).and the RTS was up 50% for fiscal year 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-28/here-are-the-best-and-worst-performing-assets-of-2016.

;)

'Yes' ...  It was on the floor and rescued by a oil price increase .... let's not attribute credit to govt policy .

Ranching and agriculture are 2 viable emerging industries that had previously been non-existent in Russia.

Aided by the excuse of 'counter sanctions'  - which are a protectionist excuse.

I'm still smiling about your telling us ( elsewhere ) that I know 'little' - being polite - about knowing about the quality of meat - in Russia - seeing I have a degree in Hotel Management.

At least on here, if you post DAFT - you can read responses to some of your more interesting assertions about life in Russia ..




Consumer spending is at its highest since Russia took back Crimea, foreign debt is at an all-time low, and there is plenty of money left in Russia's reserve funds. There have even been times when the government has replenished the fund during the last 2-3 years.

Taking 'back' what wasn't theirs to take ?  I mean you do KNOW the RF agreed Crimea was an autonomous rep. of Ukraine and signed treaties to protect the nation's integrity ...

Ukraine is stilll a failed state because of Ukrainians.

Certainly, partly true - but they have LOTS of 'help' from it's 'friendly neighbour' - encouraging Ukrainians that they can be 'novorossiyans' whilst upping the criminality of discussing ceding from the RF in Russian media .....

Is Russia out of the woods? No, but, I think that it has turned an important corner.

OK... As I walk the streets in Sochi - 'with all those tourists ' that haven't come BECAUSE of 'away games' in Ukraine ... I'll think of you.

The economy isn't anywhere near back to were it was and OIL/ GAS pricing is the key - not aided by 'away games' in neighbours to divert public opinion


..We are not afraid

 

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