Poroshenko claims Ukraine is now being offered weapons by NATO.

[lordtiberius]

WWJD ?

Gloves off. Ask Motorola.

[lordtiberius]

Heathens?  hahah now you sound like a hysterical aunt Esther. 

What a patriot . . .

[fathertime]

FT, forgive my hazy memory, but was Neville Chamberlain your grandfather, or was he your great-Uncle?

I am going to repeat something that you obviously do not have (yet) the capacity to understand:

- Mr. Putin does not want a piece of Ukraine in exchange for peace. His hopes of building Russia into something other than a Siberian gas filling station is dependent upon having Ukraine's vast agriculture and educated workforce as part of the Eurasian Union. Without that, his trading bloc is a small limp penis in a world of big Dicks. Simple as that.

- He will take a sliver and slice for now, as long as the West breathes a sigh of relief and then cancels the sanctions. He is a patient man, and understands that the Neville Chamberlains of this world are incredibly stupid and will never learn. Because he takes the long view, he will come back for more--until someone has the balls to make him stop.

Whoever and whatever makes him stop will not be Neville Chamberlain, just in case you are wondering.


Now, in some ways you and I are one the same page in this one respect: we understand that Putin has painted himself into a corner and needs an "out" of this mess. Giving him territory that belongs to someone else is not that recipe for peace (see the above). In fact, it would be the height of stupidity.

I was around when he desperately wanted entry into the WTO. The World Trade Organization represented a prize for Russia, and the WTO relaxed regulations regarding protectionism and competition in order to let Russia in. This process started in 1993. Iceland, a member of NATO, got the process started. The Russian Federation entered the WTO in August of 2012. Behind the scenes, a lot of "carrots" were used, especially by the USA, to make it happen. During the first term of George W. Bush, the US, with the help of the UK, had to win the support of several WTO members, notably France and Germany, in order to keep the process moving forward.

Of the things that Russia needs now, several of the most pressing issues include development of Arctic resources, the Eurasian Union, and the loss of credit markets due to targeted credit sanctions.

The West might do well to consider partnerships in the Arctic (some were already in the works prior to the annexation of Crimea) without giving up legitimate claims there, to aid Russia. The West can have dramatic impact on not only reducing exploration time, but in streamlining and making such work efficient. The easing of credit would come with the removal of sanctions, and so the hard part is the Eurasian Union. I understand that you have yet to comprehend this, but the current struggle over Ukraine is not over some coal miners who mistakenly believed false rumours that the Russian language would be taken away from them; rather the real issue is Ukraine's desire to turn toward a more Western way of life, and the hard reality is that presently it means opting out of the Eurasian Union.

We both know that the EU really does not need another financial drain by a weak and new member. The long term benefits would be there, but would take years to cultivate. We must also understand that the people of Ukraine likely do not want to be a part of the EU as much as they long for the economic and political transparency, rule of law, and economic equality that is just not available by staying in the shadow of a corrupt neighbor. Positive changes in Russia would, I believe, cause Ukrainians to perhaps give the Eurasian Union a chance, provided a clear mechanism for withdrawal from the union should Russia lurch backward. (Kazakhstan and Belarus have such mechanisms in their membership with the union already.) Those positive changes, however, are not near and dear to Mr. Putin's worldview.

We can give Putin some territory today, and nothing will have changed. And, be sure, he will come for more next week. That is the game he understands. To give him that would be indescribably stupid.

It would be easy, in the short term, to sacrifice Ukraine and let him take whatever he wants. Unfortunately, we'd soon discover that Ukraine is not all that he wants. As just one example, Poland is not uneasy because Pole's have different recipes for borsch, no, Poles have unease because of Russian history.

Another option is that we proceed ahead to WWIII, and possibly turn the clock back to 1918, or worse, while suffering tremendous loss of life.

The real hard work is finding a carrot and a solution. The carrot is for a certain KGB Colonel. The solution would be for good and decent Ukrainian people, who deserve better than simply being thrown back to the same old wolf.

Can we find the right carrot, and the right solution?

I do not yet know.

Finally a serious post!


I realize your viewpoint and if I had the same viewpoint as you, I probably think the same way you are thinking. 


It could be that the USA is happy enough as things stand....Russia used to have de facto control over Ukraine, but now they are having to fight to maintain the control they once had without fighting. 


Yes offering the right carrots makes sense to me...actually it always has as I considered that a part of the negotiation.


You are mistaken when you mention that you think I've bought into the whole 'Russian language issue' among coal minors or whoever...Although there probably is support for Russia in those regions, I also realize the populace is  propagandized as well. I also think we are propagandized as well, although to a lessor extent. 


You are certain Putin is going for all of Ukraine, I don't think so....we will find out.    You seem to feel that he may also go for Poland or some other border nation in Europe.  I don't think so, as that insures we will have a very big battle and will not end well for Russia as many nations would team up against them.


If indeed Russia is going for all of Ukraine as you say...then first Ukraine needs to fight, when I look at all those videos, I see 'Fighting age' men all walking past dead bodies like they are cord-wood, rather indifferent...Why is Ukraine half-assing their own fight?...anyway..then if  Europe thinks it is worthwhile they need to fight...then perhaps the US would get involved, if we think it is worthwhile....although risking world war in this particular case doesn't seem worthwhile to me, but I'm not privy to all the information our representatives are.


Thanks for keeping it civil.


Fathertime!

[BillyB]

Can we find the right carrot, and the right solution?

Obama has a habit of giving money to bad actors around the world in hopes they behave to deliver hope of a more peaceful and kind world when he became President. Putin, one of the richest men on earth and recipient of American tax dollars, will not be motivated by money anymore. Russia's glory and his legacy matters most to him now. Offer him the all the countries he wants or kill a lot of Russians in Ukraine. Let him feel like he won the lottery or install the fear of death and ruin his legacy. Those two carrots will get him to back off.

[mendeleyev]

FT, finally a serious post? I just keep repeating myself. However I am glad that perhaps you are starting to pay attention.

I really don't have to think about some of this stuff. Not only have I been a member of the press pool covering both president and prime minister, but my first trips to Syria and then Egypt were part of a nonpartisan observer team sent by the Russians. I've been back to both as a human rights observer and when on the second Egyptian trip we ran into a little problem getting out safely, it was the Kremlin that made sure we made it.

Some will think it odd, but although I consider him dangerous in many ways, in others we have a mutual respect. Many years ago he was the second government official with who I communicated plans to marry my wife. The Russian Minister of Communications and Mass Media at the time was the first person I consulted after her family and our priest. The man is no stranger, and I have no need for theories or opinions when it comes to understanding certain priorities regarding Ukraine as it relates to the Eurasian Union.

In regards to Eastern support for Russia, the folks who show up to vote at referendums are the ones who plan to vote the way the referendum organizers intend. Those organizers have guns, lots of firepower, and who wants to risk voting contrary to the guys with the firepower? Most who do not agree are smart enough to stay home...or go shopping...or be out of town on polling day.

Putin fears NATO encroachment. If he detects weakness, he will test NATO. He does not believe that NATO will sweep in to protect most small European states. He thinks the current US president to be a weakling. In this sense, Ukraine is part of a bigger test. I will not comment personally on the US leadership now, but Mr. Putin and Sergei Lavrov (a tough, hardass as nails, highly intelligent, and trusted colleague to the president) are on the same page with that assessment. Both view Kerry even less, and either could barely stomach Mrs. Clinton.

All it takes for NATO to be defanged, is for it to fail to defend one member. Were that to ever happen, NATO is finished, and Putin and Lavrov would rejoice for decades were that to happen.

He may be wrong in his thinking. I hope so.

[fathertime]

FT, finally a serious post?

Your posts are almost always serious, I was Juxtaposing your post with the 50 others here when I logged in, talking about blow up dolls, heathens,  etc etc


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

Putin fears NATO encroachment. If he detects weakness, he will test NATO. He does not believe that NATO will sweep in to protect most small European states. He thinks the current US president to be a weakling. In this sense, Ukraine is part of a bigger test. I will not comment personally on the US leadership now, but Mr. Putin and Sergei Lavrov (a tough, hardass as nails, highly intelligent, and trusted colleague to the president) are on the same page with that assessment. Both view Kerry even less, and either could barely stomach Mrs. Clinton.
 .

Attempting to look at things from his perspective, I can see why he doesn't want further NATO encroachment.  As far as Kerry goes, lets just say, thankfully he didn't win when he had his chance.   Mrs. Clinton still has a chance to be president, so hopefully he finds a way to accept that without being dismissive (if it becomes the case). 

All it takes for NATO to be defanged, is for it to fail to defend one member. Were that to ever happen, NATO is finished, and Putin and Lavrov would rejoice for decades were that to happen.

He may be wrong in his thinking. I hope so.

I don't see NATO not defending a member state.  I don't see Putin creating this type of mischief in a NATO state.  What a terrible war that would be.    Ukraine has been a different story.


Fathertime!   

[AC]

Putin fears NATO encroachment. If he detects weakness, he will test NATO. He does not believe that NATO will sweep in to protect most small European states. He thinks the current US president to be a weakling. In this sense, Ukraine is part of a bigger test. I will not comment personally on the US leadership now, but Mr. Putin and Sergei Lavrov (a tough, hardass as nails, highly intelligent, and trusted colleague to the president) are on the same page with that assessment. Both view Kerry even less, and either could barely stomach Mrs. Clinton.

This has been the problem from day one, however he must know that there is a high probability that a conservative Republican is going to win the White House in 2016.  Does he really think that an all red USA is going to let his insanity stand?

Obviously most of this never would have happened in the first place if Mitt Romney had won the election in 2012, but as Donald Trump just said he "choked" his opportunity.  A Jeb Bush or a Ted Cruz or a Mike Huckabee or the fat guy from New Jersey will not let Putin continue to get away with this stuff.  Putin may yet get half of Ukraine but it's going to be very bloody and I seriously doubt if he would ever get W. Ukraine.

[lordtiberius]

Your posts are almost always serious, I was Juxtaposing your post with the 50 others here when I logged in, talking about blow up dolls, heathens,  etc etc


Fathertime!

You Novorossiya types always keep it classy

[JayH]

Tank troops fight to contain rebel expansion in eastern Ukraine

By Tom Parfitt, Zhelanne3:48PM GMT 24 Jan 2015
Vadim Ozirny is hoping for reinforcements.
The 46-year-old Ukrainian tank commander says politicians might yet stop the conflict that grips the east of his country, but supplies of arms from the West would bring a quicker result.
“Can we win this war? Can we bring it to an end? I don’t know. This is not toys; it’s not players on a football field. Give me some British Challengers or German Leopards and the Russians will be afraid to come out against us.”
Captain Ozirny is in charge of 33 men and ten tanks, mostly ageing Soviet T-64s. Last week, he and his company were caught in the thick of battles on the northwest rim of Donetsk, the million-strong city which is the stronghold of pro-Russian separatists.
The war in eastern Ukraine is escalating after months of skirmishes. On Saturday, 27 civilians were reportedly killed and 97 injured when Grad rockets fell on a neighbourhood of Mariupol on the Sea of Azov.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11367411/Tank-troops-fight-to-contain-rebel-expansion-in-eastern-Ukraine.html

[Brasscasing]

Canada delivers first installment of Improved First Aid Kits to Ukrainian soldiers



..."Canadian Minister of International Trade Edward Fast and Canada’s Ambassador to Ukraine Roman Waschuk visited the Canada-Ukraine Chamber of Commerce in Kyiv to deliver the first installment of Improved First Aid Kits (IFAKs) for Ukrainian soldiers on Jan. 26.

Canada is providing IFAKs for Ukrainian soldiers in conjunction with Combat Lifesaver training by instructors from the humanitarian initiative of the Ukrainian World Congress “Patriot Defence”.

Beginning in May,  “Patriot Defense” has trained over 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers in adapted Combat Lifesaver courses based on the same curriculum used by Canadian Armed Forces and NATO. More than 9,500 IFAKs have been distributed to those trained soldiers."...

http://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/photo/government-of-canada-delivered-the-first-installment-of-improved-first-aid-kits-for-ukrainian-soldiers-378475.html

...For crying out loud... We need to do more. Weaponry, send them weaponry.

Brass

[JayH]

At last we are at the business end of this decision.The US is on the verge-- the acid is being put on the NATO EU nations to join in and help.
I do not agree that this cannot be won militarily-- it can and it will be. In fact--it is the only way. The bully nation in Russia needs to  be confronted and cut down to size -- and the Russian people learn the truth of the kleptocrats in control of Russia and their craziness.
Any escalation by Russia--needs to be met  with much bigger force and more serious consequences for Russia.

A serious effort by NATO-- the spells it out to Russia-- any attack that emanates out of Russia--by aircraft,missile,whatever-- the source will be attacked & destroyed wherever it is-including inside Russia anywhere. Declare a complete nofly zone within 50/100kms of Ukraine border by ANY aircraft whatsoever. I believe when faced with a defeat on the ground-the truly dumb Huilo will seek to escalate-- and attempt to use air power-that needs to be anticipated.

Some uncompromising bullying needs to be done-- when Huilo decides it is time to negotiate-- sure--when the eastern border is secure from Russians-- then it is time to discuss the Crimea. Of course-- I would dick Huilo around in talks-stall while the east is cleared of Russian scum.


US, UK, Other NATO Alliance Members Must Decide Independently Whether To Arm Ukraine Or Not Vs Russia

Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary-general, has admitted the alliance has started to seriously broach on the idea of lethally arming Ukraine against Russia. Earlier, alliance-member United States said it is open to finally provide arms and weapons to the Kiev forces. However, Stoltenberg said any decision to send lethal arms to Ukraine would be a decision undertaken and approved by each member-state.

Stoltenberg said discussions are currently taking place among NATO members regarding furnishing Ukraine with arms and weapons. However, NATO as a body “does not possess weapons,” Stoltenberg said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany. This meant that the decision to arm Ukraine will be made independently by each member-state and not as a group. “I will limit myself to say that we have an ongoing discussion on how we can help Ukraine and every nation has the right to protect and defend itself.”

http://au.ibtimes.com/us-uk-other-nato-alliance-members-must-decide-independently-whether-arm-ukraine-or-not-vs-russia

[lordtiberius]

Canada delivers first installment of Improved First Aid Kits to Ukrainian soldiers



..."Canadian Minister of International Trade Edward Fast and Canada’s Ambassador to Ukraine Roman Waschuk visited the Canada-Ukraine Chamber of Commerce in Kyiv to deliver the first installment of Improved First Aid Kits (IFAKs) for Ukrainian soldiers on Jan. 26.

Canada is providing IFAKs for Ukrainian soldiers in conjunction with Combat Lifesaver training by instructors from the humanitarian initiative of the Ukrainian World Congress “Patriot Defence”.

Beginning in May,  “Patriot Defense” has trained over 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers in adapted Combat Lifesaver courses based on the same curriculum used by Canadian Armed Forces and NATO. More than 9,500 IFAKs have been distributed to those trained soldiers."...

http://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/photo/government-of-canada-delivered-the-first-installment-of-improved-first-aid-kits-for-ukrainian-soldiers-378475.html

...For crying out loud... We need to do more. Weaponry, send them weaponry.

Brass

There is no Canadian version of the Ukrainian freedom act.  Why?  Obama agrees with Merkel.  No weapons for Ukraine.  Why?  The Ukrainian freedom act authorizes but doesn't allocate money (peanuts) to Ukraine.  Why?

To paraphrase John McCain to Angela Merkel, how many Ukrainians have to die before we arm Ukraine?

Yugoslavia was not in NATO, but the only way to stop Slobodan Milosevic was NATO ground troops.  If we do not reinforce Ukraine with superior weapons and training, NATO will be involved.

[Brasscasing]

There is no Canadian version of the Ukrainian freedom act.  Why?  Obama agrees with Merkel.  No weapons for Ukraine.  Why?  The Ukrainian freedom act authorizes but doesn't allocate money (peanuts) to Ukraine.  Why?

To paraphrase John McCain to Angela Merkel, how many Ukrainians have to die before we arm Ukraine?

Yugoslavia was not in NATO, but the only way to stop Slobodan Milosevic was NATO ground troops.  If we do not reinforce Ukraine with superior weapons and training, NATO will be involved.

The question I have is why the frumpy frau was content to do nothing until the very day the POTUS made public he was considering sending military aid to Ukraine.

Now all of sudden she's out the door busier than a one legged cat in a sandbox running interference for the criminal dictator of Russia trying to forestall the inevitable.

Merkel certainly wasn't as motivated to save Putin's a$$ before Obama stated he was considering sending weapons. What's up with that?

Your question: The Prime Minister has prerogative power to declare war, deploy  Canadian Forces or otherwise render military aid at his/her discretion.

The PM normally consults Parliament, allows debate or a vote on the subject as a  courtesy but Parliament's consent isn't required by statute law. edit to add; in other words Canada doesn't need to pass a law to give the PM the power to act. He/she already has it.

Brass

[AC]

The PM normally consults Parliament, allows debate or a vote on the subject as a  courtesy but Parliament's consent isn't required by statute law. edit to add; in other words Canada doesn't need to pass a law to give the PM the power to act. He/she already has it.

Brass

If George Bush Jr. or Romney were President the Ukrainians would have had weapons to defend themselves nearly a year ago and Putin would have already pulled his troops out of Ukraine.  A strong defense saves lives, a weak defense causes the loss of more lives and territory.

[lordtiberius]

What if?

[Photo Guy]

Uh... he is? Then he should accept! 

[lordtiberius]

I wish our President spoke like this:

[Faux Pas]

The question I have is why the frumpy frau was content to do nothing until the very day the POTUS made public he was considering sending military aid to Ukraine.

Now all of sudden she's out the door busier than a one legged cat in a sandbox running interference for the criminal dictator of Russia trying to forestall the inevitable.

Merkel certainly wasn't as motivated to save Putin's a$$ before Obama stated he was considering sending weapons. What's up with that?

Your question: The Prime Minister has prerogative power to declare war, deploy  Canadian Forces or otherwise render military aid at his/her discretion.

The PM normally consults Parliament, allows debate or a vote on the subject as a  courtesy but Parliament's consent isn't required by statute law. edit to add; in other words Canada doesn't need to pass a law to give the PM the power to act. He/she already has it.

Brass

It's a pretty good bet that if Obama should send armaments and munitions to Ukraine they will stage in Germany unless Merkel denies it. Merkel will have a choice to make for appeasement, the U.S. or Russia. She's pretty much planted her flag with the U.S. but that was before firepower against Russia is coming from Germany. Oh what a web we weave, huh? I don't believe for a minute that Obama will okay any shipment to Ukraine

[Photo Guy]

Ha. Maybe he could NOT supply weapons like Putin does NOT supply weapons...

[lordtiberius]

They could stage in Poland or Romania.

[JayH]

    Since this thread started there have been a lot of developments that have become a reality with nato countries assisting Ukraine.fact is that it is now a large number of countries giving assistance. Time has worked in Ukraine's favour as the  military has become better organised and equipped-at least with basic needs-if not the best military hardware they now have decent uniforms and boots !
     Of course the on the ground real life exposure of  Nato military is not good news for Russia-- seeing and learning of how the Russians have gone about the invasion in Ukraine has been and is teaching western countries  some very precise details of the Russian military>


Instructing Ukrainian troops a wake-up call for Canadian soldiers

A fresh batch of Canadian military trainers is about to deploy to eastern Europe, and the outgoing commander says his soldiers took a lot of their own notes in addition to handing out assignments to Ukrainian troops.

Lt.-Col. Jason Guiney, who is about to end his five-month stint, says even though their training bases are 1,200 kilometres away from the fighting in the breakaway eastern regions, his troops have learned a lot about the nature of the conflict.

“It’s a very big wake-up call for us as an institution,” Guiney said Thursday in a telephone interview from Lviv, located in western Ukraine.

In dealing with Ukrainian troops, he said, they’ve had an up-close look at how Moscow-backed separatists have mixed high-tech Russian weaponry, cyberattacks, propaganda, conventional warfare and insurgency warfare into a toxic, deadly campaign.

“There’s a lot of very modern Russian equipment in there,” Guiney said, referring to armoured vehicles that have the ability to deflect anti-tank rockets.

“We’ve learned about how Ukrainians are deploying methods to defeat that.”

The speed and sophistication of the conflict, which began with Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014, has startled many western military planners who’ve come to describe what’s happening the country as hybrid warfare.

“We’ve learned they’ve experienced cyberattacks; electronic warfare, like radio jamming; heavy use of drones, like UAVs, which are used for precision artillery strikes,” he said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/instructing-ukrainian-troops-a-wake-up-call-for-canadian-trainers/article28048695/

[JayH]

Many times back in 2014  I kept hearing solid opinions and information that military aid would be forthcoming to Ukraine from the US-either directly or thru Nato.
At that time- I repeatedly heard that help was coming.
The story below will confirm  that it was not a pipe dream( as many tried to tell us here) but was the opinion and attitude of the people in the know. Later I learnt that it was only the extreme inner circle of Obama advisors opposed- a position that exists today.

Hacked e-mails reveal how NATO general tried to convince Obama to arm Ukraine

Breedlove, during briefings to Congress, notably contradicted the Obama administration regarding the situation in Ukraine, leading to news stories about conflict between the general and Obama.

But the leaked emails provide an even more dramatic picture of the intense back-channel lobbying for the Obama administration to begin a proxy war with Russia in Ukraine.

In a series of messages in 2014, Breedlove sought meetings with former Secretary of State Colin Powell, asking for advice on how to pressure the Obama administration to take a more aggressive posture toward Russia.

http://theintercept.com/2016/07/01/nato-general-emails/