More Bad News for Russia

[Larry1]

I don't think anyone has posted about these two recent articles discussing the political situation in Russia:

Putin Said Ready to Revamp Inner Circle as Ally Yakunin Goes

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ready to start replacing long-serving allies in his inner circle after the sudden departure of OAO Russian Railways chief Vladimir Yakunin as head of the country’s largest employer.

Putin intends to bring in trusted younger people to shake up his team ahead of the 2018 presidential election as he seeks to drag Russia’s economy out of recession, an official said Tuesday, speaking on condition of anonymity because he isn’t authorized to discuss appointments.

Yakunin’s exit marks “a radical change, a very strong breach in the balance of the inner circle,” Gleb Pavlovsky, a former political adviser to Putin, said by phone on Tuesday. It may be “a signal of the high level of instability at the top” of the regime, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-18/putin-ally-yakunin-to-drop-railway-ceo-job-to-become-a-senator

Is A Slow Putsch Against Putin Under Way?

A quarter century after the fall of the USSR, Kremlinologists sense a putsch in the air, despite Vladimir Putin’s overwhelming approval ratings. The tea leaves say that the Kremlin elite, dubbed by some as Politburo 2.0, is currently deciding whether Putin should go before he makes a bad situation worse. The founder of the respected daily Kommersant predicts that a dramatic change is about to take place and advises Russians who have the means to leave the country for a month or so and take their children with them....

Unlike the Russian people, Russia’s Politburo 2.0 understands the true state of  the economy, including that Russia’s economists, contrary to earlier claims, are no Houdinis. The Russian economy, which stopped growing well before Crimea, will be mired in recession until oil prices recover, possibly many years hence. Russia’s highly indebted companies cannot borrow, and China will not and cannot come to their rescue. The Kremlin embargo of food imports raised inflation above 15%, more than triple any indexation of wages and pensions.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/08/20/is-a-slow-putsch-against-putin-under-way/

Hat tip: Tyler Cowen, blogging at http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2015/08/saturday-assorted-links-24.html

If you are interested in  these topics I urge you to read the entire article. It's difficult for me to believe there is or will be a putsch to overthrow Putin as long as he controls the gunmen.

[Brasscasing]

..."speaking on condition of anonymity because he isn’t authorized to discuss appointments."...

Brass

[2tallbill]

I don't think anyone has posted about these two recent articles discussing the political situation in Russia:

It's difficult for me to believe there is or will be a putsch to overthrow Putin as long as he controls the gunmen.

Putin won't be voted out of office however, If he reshuffles the deck one too many
times or throws one too many of the nomenklatura/oligarchs under the bus he can
find himself suddenly deader than Yuri Andropov. The problem with a corrupt system
is that it's corrupt.

[JayH]

I don't think anyone has posted about these two recent articles discussing the political situation in Russia:


If you are interested in  these topics I urge you to read the entire article. It's difficult for me to believe there is or will be a putsch to overthrow Putin as long as he controls the gunmen.

Try a post a few upthread   #3371     & #3374   

I totally support them being read and re-read.

The control of the gun works both ways--you can do the shooting--but it sets the ground rules.Once the full depth 0f the catastrophe Putin is overseeing is sheeted home he will not last long.
As for the nonsense of his popular support-- another created myth.

[ML]

As for the nonsense of his popular support-- another created myth.

A knowledgeable pro western person here pointed out that one of the major polls showing his huge popularity with Russian people is regularly conducted by a western leaning prestigious organization within Russia.

So there is no myth about his popularity with Russian citizens.

I came across a few Russians living here in USA who also strongly support him and his actions toward Ukraine.  I don't associate with them at all any more.

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking here on this forum that he is going to be overthrown or lose his power.

But I suspect that is the extent of it . . . just wishful thinking.

Mendy previously pointed out that many Russians fully understand that Putin is totally lying about no Russian soldiers in Ukraine etc., but they just don't care about the lying.  So it's not like they are suddenly going to wake up.  They are fully awake to the idea that Ukraine is being raped.

[Photo Guy]

Yakunin goes...
This is not the first time a rift between Medvedev and Putin has appeared. The question is, is the divide mostly stylistic or substantive? 

[mendeleyev]

his huge popularity with Russian people is regularly conducted by a western leaning prestigious organization within Russia.

The Levada Centre has somehow managed, although at times under tremendous pressure, to remain independent. Much of Mr. Putin's current popularity is based primarily on the annexation of Crimea--an action that caused most of the opposition to go silent--because they approved of the result. That both surprised and saddened me personally.

Well over 80 percent of the Russian population uses television as their primary news source. Russian news anchors and reporters are no longer just reporters--they are outright commentators disguised as reporters. With the exception of independent TV "Rain" which has been taken off airways and survives only via a decreasing number of cable providers, every other television network is controlled by the Kremlin. The message on television about Ukraine, and the USA, is a daily drumbeat of outright negative lies.


The Soviet Union was always class-driven, and racist. Although an honest historian could easily see the connection between the Kievan-Rus and the birth of the Russian nation, Russians have instead focused on the fact that a historically independent Ukraine needed, and sought, Russia's protection from outside enemies. The Russians used that to control, and eventually incorporate Ukraine into Imperial Russia. Thus, the Russian narrative for a long time has been to consider Ukrainians as "little brothers" (a hedged acknowledgment of their common birthright), but more importantly, as a people that cannot live or function without the watchful nurturing of the bigger brother in Moscow.



The government's propaganda in this vein continues, and the average Russia truly believes that Ukraine "belongs" to Russia to this day.



(Russia in flag colours of white-blue-red is seen comforting/consoling Ukraine in flag colours of blue and gold.)


A few years back after the massive street protests in 2010-2011, and then the repeat of large protests following the obviously dishonest election in 2012, I ventured that Mr. Putin might not finish his term, and could be gone in a couple of years. Obviously events have changed and my short term analysis was wrong, but I still wonder whether he will make it to the end of the six years. Or, will he be offered the option of riding off into the sunset to his new palace on the Black Sea at the end of the first term, in exchange for immunity?

OTOH, he may just continue to toy with weak Western leaders and browbeat Russia's neighbors for this, and for another term.

This is not the first time a rift between Medvedev and Putin has appeared. The question is, is the divide mostly stylistic or substantive? 

Recently in another post I showed photos and explained who accompanied him to Crimea just days ago. Medvedev and Putin have a long history dating back to their work in St Petersburg decades ago. While as different as night and day, they have a chemistry that works despite the occasional spat.

With the president on that trip were two other important connections from St Petersburg--Sergei Ivanov, who heads the presidential administration, and Valentina Matviyenko, who is president of the Russian Senate/Federation Council. Ivanov is a reserve General in the FSB, and like Medvedev, has been a close confidant of Putin for decades. Matviyenko (who was born in Ukraine), has also been closely associated with Putin for decades. He has great trust in those three.



(Together: Medvedev and Putin at front. Shoygu, Matviyenko, and Ivanov at the rear. Photo: Press pool/Mendeleyev Journal)


Also on the trip were General of the Army/Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu. Shoygu is a "buffer," an appointment meant to keep the FSB from grabbing too much power. He is not from St Petersburg. Another high ranking official was Oleg Belaventsev, presidential envoy to Crimea. Belaventsev is a close friend to Shoygu. And, Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin made the trip. He is not from St Petersburg, but has been a Putin loyalist for many years.



The St Petersburg connections are important because the Security organizations of Russia are based primarily in Peter. Fact: Nobody in Russia becomes president without an agreement from several shadowy but quite effective leaders of those agencies. That is why it is also important to balance the scales a bit by including others in the cabinet who are not a part of that circle.

Now, watch that submarine episode again, but this time notice the reaction of Putin and Medvedev at the end.

[JayH]

A knowledgeable pro western person here pointed out that one of the major polls showing his huge popularity with Russian people is regularly conducted by a western leaning prestigious organization within Russia.

So there is no myth about his popularity with Russian citizens.

I came across a few Russians living here in USA who also strongly support him and his actions toward Ukraine.  I don't associate with them at all any more.

I think there is a lot of wishful thinking here on this forum that he is going to be overthrown or lose his power.

But I suspect that is the extent of it . . . just wishful thinking.

Mendy previously pointed out that many Russians fully understand that Putin is totally lying about no Russian soldiers in Ukraine etc., but they just don't care about the lying.  So it's not like they are suddenly going to wake up.  They are fully awake to the idea that Ukraine is being raped.

Wishful  thinking-yes-BUT-based on  a highly feasible scenario. I I think I have written about it a few times!!) 

The  'support" Putin supposedly has is not "real" in my view--   what point is there for any Russian to express a contrary view at this time? To finish up dead? Or at the least ostracised and excluded?
The test of the reality will only be when the reality of the consequences of Putins actions--- and government really hit home and start to bite everyday Russians.Perhaps action against Putin will be quicker when it bites those at the top pf his "tree" ?

Mendy's comments on the Putin popularity rise based on how they see the Crimea-- and his other tough talking anti western/Nato crap.That support will evaporate faster than Putin could fix the polls when it is not rolling forward anymore-- and the real cost of those actions  hit home.

Time has worked in Ukraine's favour in the east( not that the 5 million people stuck in the humanitarian crisis would notice!) The Russian invasion plan has failed-- and it must be up to about  plan 53 after the dismal failure of plan A  etc.
the Ukrainian military has done much better than expected-- and continues improving all the time. Getting through these next few months and preventing any Russian advance will only increase the pressure on Putin--let alone an advance of Ukrainian forces .
Chances are it will be a combination of events that destroys Putin. I might add--it is the regime that needs change--not just Putin-- and that may prove a much more difficult thing to achieve.

Yes  it is wishfull  thinking( predicting is more accurate word)--but there are quite a few knowledgeable observers jumping onboard now-- and backed up with more than tea leaves reading!

[ML]

The  'support" Putin supposedly has is not "real" in my view--   what point is there for any Russian to express a contrary view at this time? To finish up dead? Or at the least ostracised and excluded?

You have ignored fact that a respected west leaning opinion polling organization consistently records high numbers for Putin.  There is no fear of expressing your views in these polls.

There is REAL and OVERWHELMING support for Putin amongst the Russian citizens.

Stop kidding yourself with this wishful thinking.

Can it change; of course.

But you should admit to yourself the current situation.

[mendeleyev]

ML:

There is no fear of expressing your views in these polls.

We don't disagree often, but here I'd respectfully differ. While there is not (yet, at least) the level of fear that was common during the "Red Terror" for example, one can be ostracized and fear being accosted by those with very strong nationalist/fascists leanings.

The one member of the Russian Duma who voted against the annexation of Crimea was forced to flee Russia, even though he is an elected member of the government. For now, although he remains a member of the Duma, he fled due to a court order for his arrest stemming from his opposition to the war in Ukraine. He now lives in California.

He gave an interview in which he said:

It’s very comfortable – psychologically, very comfortable right now, to be supportive of Putin because you feel yourself a great patriot, like Russia is raising off its knees, you know, these kinds of things. And Russians, really, they felt humiliated for last 25 years after collapse of the Soviet Union, so some people actually just reestablished themselves by supporting Putin, but that’s a very short living exercise. And I think a year from now, a year-and-a-half from now, this support will actually vanish.”

[Boethius]

Below is an excerpt from a piece by Alexei Bayer, an economist who emigrated from the USSR.  I believe this supports many of your arguments, Mendy.  I also believe that this is a good piece for the "useful idiots" in the West - those who parrot the Kremlin's propaganda about America creating Euromaidan for its own purposes, how the West wishes to "destroy" Russia, blah, blah, blah.  I read about these idiots in the 1920's, who admired the Bolsheviks, and see them today, still too blind to understand who they are supporting.  It sickens me. 

In the 1930s, Stalin sicked his communist masses on the old-style intelligentsia - all those engineers who got a professional education and therefore thought they knew better how to run factories, on prosperous, hard-working peasants, on experienced military commanders and on the educated party elite. After World War II came the turn of the Jews and other “rootless cosmopolitans”.
Invariably, the targets were eggheads - the ones who claimed that the world was too complex to be explained away by marxism-leninism and that solving some problems required education and professional training, not just love for the Great Leader.
I have no doubt that in Putin’s Russia, the turn of “domestic enemies” and the “Fifth Column” will also eventually come. For now, however, Putin is channelling the national anger out of the country. It’s the Anglo-Saxons - the British and the Americans - who have always conspired to keep Russia down. The perfidious Anglo-Americans bought everyone up and turned other nations into their lackeys in order to keep Russia from assuming its rightful role as a global leader.

Russia has accumulated a long litany of historical grievances, going back to the dawn of history. They include facts cited by “serious” political analysis as well as downright silliness and craziness - such as a recently advanced claim that Jesus travelled to Northern Russia, where he developed his teachings. There is an entire branch of history in Russia which has discovered that Western Europe was a Russian-speaking federation during the Middle Ages.

Today, those Anglo-Saxons and the West in general are flaunting their advanced technologies, their well-engineered cars, their dollar-based financial system and their control over commodity markets. Their movies, music, fashions and McDonald’s have insidiously spread into Russia, corrupting and weakening it. They are proud of their prosperity, tolerance and civil rights, claiming it to be a mark of an advanced civilization.

Russia can’t harm the United States and its allies in any real way - because indeed, the West’s military, technological, financial and economic superiority over Russia is at this point overwhelming. Vladimir Putin thought he could rile up EU farmers if he banned their products from the Russian market. But Russia turned out to be too insignificant to make a difference. While Brussels made up the farmers’ losses, Russia’s own economic decline meant that its imports were going to shrink anyway. All Russia can do is to burn banned food products brought into the country illegally in a kind of a voodoo ritual in which cheese, ham, fruit and vegetables become stand-ins for Western politicians.
More ominously, ex-Soviet nations that are hoping to join the West but do not yet enjoy NATO protection have also become stand-ins for the hated Americans. Ukrainians, along with Georgians, Moldovans and, in time, othersl, can expect to bear the brunt of Russia’s impotent rage.

All this suggests that the Russian madness can’t be expected to end painlessly merely if Putin goes. Stalin’s generation outlived its patron saint by three decades. Mikhail Suslov, the party ideologist of the Brezhnev era, is a classic example of a young Stalinist. He died in 1982.

Even if the Russian economy crumbles - as it is likely to do in the near-to-medium term, just as the Russian economy collapsed under Bolshevism - it will not result in any kind of a new beginning. There may be changes, but probably not for the better.

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/alexei-bayer-dont-expect-russias-policy-to-change-395882.html

[mendeleyev]

Bo, that is an excellent article!

[sleepycat]

Here we go again...
 

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-ruble-falls-2015-low-stocks-plunge-004312621.html

[ML]

Mendy, I don't get your connection.

I said: There is no fear of expressing your views in these polls.

You said:

We don't disagree often, but here I'd respectfully differ. While there is not (yet, at least) the level of fear that was common during the "Red Terror" for example, one can be ostracized and fear being accosted by those with very strong nationalist/fascists leanings.

The one member of the Russian Duma who voted against the annexation of Crimea was forced to flee Russia, even though he is an elected member of the government. For now, although he remains a member of the Duma, he fled due to a court order for his arrest stemming from his opposition to the war in Ukraine. He now lives in California.

= = = = = = =

I was referring to anonymous polls.

You were referring to open voting in Duma.

[Faux Pas]

Mendy, I don't get your connection.

I said: There is no fear of expressing your views in these polls.

You said:

We don't disagree often, but here I'd respectfully differ. While there is not (yet, at least) the level of fear that was common during the "Red Terror" for example, one can be ostracized and fear being accosted by those with very strong nationalist/fascists leanings.

The one member of the Russian Duma who voted against the annexation of Crimea was forced to flee Russia, even though he is an elected member of the government. For now, although he remains a member of the Duma, he fled due to a court order for his arrest stemming from his opposition to the war in Ukraine. He now lives in California.

= = = = = = =

I was referring to anonymous polls.

You were referring to open voting in Duma.

I haven't been back to Russia since the Ukraine invasion by the Russian supported terrorists. But, even before that there seemed to be a fear among Russians that I know about speaking out against the Russian leadership openly. I chalked it up to a holdover from the Soviet days. It's been that way as long as I have been visiting Russia. My point I am making is most Russians that I know would not tell you their true feelings on politics or geo-politics in most any form openly that spoke against Russia or the Kremlin. It was really difficult to get some to open up on their true feelings and the reason was, fear of some sort of reprisal subtle or severe. Before, many Russians would want to talk politics with me because I am American and over time I would see some of them eventually open up but, some never did.

Now there is some sort of an unspoken state issued memorandum IMHO on being patriotic towards Russia and Putin in particular, from what my wife is telling me, it's much worse than it was before. Several of her friends even she no longer trusts. They are either drinking the kool-aid (a complete 180 from before) or they are scared to speak to her anything considered unpatriotic. The wife thinks it's got something more to do with the fact that she lives in the U.S. than them changing their mind and she scares them.

edit to add: My wife is very strongly anti-Putin and very strongly Pro Russian

[AkMike]

The sanctions and the fall of oil prices are hitting Moscow and all Russia hard.
Inflation is driving up prices big time. My wife was speaking to a GF in Moscow and things are getting bad there. She's Ukrainian and said that many are getting deported from Russia just because they're Ukrainian.

Russia Must Pay For Greenpeace Ship

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-must-pay-for-greenpeace-ship/528587.html

Economic Crisis Empties Moscow Central Streets

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/economic-crisis-empties-moscow-central-streets/528585.html

Ruble Falls Further After Weak China Data, Tax Period Supports

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/ruble-falls-further-after-weak-china-data-tax-period-supports/528399.html

Russian Hockey Federation Fined Over Canadian Anthem Incident

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/news/article/russian-hockey-federation-fined-over-canadian-anthem-incident/528541.html

Agriculture Minister Backs Criminalization of Food Smuggling
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/agriculture-minister-backs-criminalization-of-food-smuggling/528518.html

[AkMike]

'Mass Murder:' Russian Patients Brace For Ban On Medical Imports

By Claire Bigg

August 23, 2015




W
hen Yulia Koptseva heard about a Russian government plan to ban a range of foreign-made medical goods, she had a single, urgent thought: "I want my daughter to live."

That was also the poignant comment she left on an online petition that has gathered almost 10,000 signatures against the proposal, unveiled earlier this month by Russia's Industry and Trade Ministry.

Koptseva's 6-year-old daughter Anastasia suffers from epidermolysis bullosa, a rare and painful condition that causes the skin to blister and tear at the slightest touch. 

If the ban is adopted, Koptseva fears Anastasia will no longer have access to the high-quality German bandages that have helped ease her pain, prevent extensive skin trauma, and lower the constant risk that she will develop life-threatening infections.

"This amounts to mass murder," says Koptseva, a former Moscow university teacher who quit her job to care for her daughter. "They might as well shoot people who need such supplies."

The proposed ban has sparked dismay in Russia, where many hospitals are woefully underequipped and patients often struggle against a host of barriers – from bureaucracy to indifference and ineptitude -- to receive even basic treatment.

Health experts say the ban, which targets more than 100 kinds of foreign-made medical goods and equipment, would deal a devastating blow to Russia's most vulnerable citizens.

Under the proposal, state-funded facilities would no longer be allowed to import items such as ventilators, MRI scanners, X-ray and ultrasound machines, defibrillators, and incubators for newborns.

The list of supplies that would be subject to restrictions also includes prosthetic devices, sterile bandages, orthopedic hospital mattresses, walking frames, and even condoms.

Private enterprises would not be affected, a detail that critics say would only widen the gap between the quality of care available to the rich and the poor in Russia.

"This won't influence our fund directly, we will still be able to purchase foreign goods," says Aliona Kuratova, who runs BELA, a medical charity that helps children with epidermolysis bullosa.  "But those children who currently receive state-funded treatment will be at risk."

'Butterfly Children'

An estimated 1,500 people in Russia suffer from the incurable genetic disease. Sufferers, who have a limited life span, are sometimes called "butterfly children" as their skin is as easily damaged as an insect's wings.

Many of them, like Anastasia, rely on state programs to obtain imported bandages, plasters, and antiseptics required to dress their skin.

Koptseva says the proposed ban, which would affect these items, will inflict unspeakable suffering upon butterfly children and expose them to severe infections.

"When we remove ordinary bandages from our children's bodies, the skin peels off, too," she says. "If these products are not purchased this year, we are doomed. I'm very scared."

BELA, together with a handful of Russian medical NGOs, sent a letter to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev last week urging him not to push ahead with the proposed ban.

The letter warned that the measure "could lead of a sharp drop in the quality of medical care" and called on authorities to first conduct a detailed review of all medical goods manufactured in Russia.

Much of Russia's medical production falls behind international standards, the letter charged, citing the example of bandages that leave threads in patients' wounds and cause infections.

Public discussions on the proposal, scheduled to end on August 17, have been extended for another 60 days due to the emotional debate it has sparked in Russia. 

Officially, the measure is aimed at bolstering domestic companies that produce medical supplies.

The proposal, however, is widely seen as politically motivated -- just like the prohibitions Russia slapped on many Western foods last year in retaliation for sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United States, and other countries over Moscow's interference in Ukraine.

In the past year, Medvedev and President Vladimir Putin have held countless meetings dedicated to 'importozameshcheniye,' a 'Made in Russia' push to replace imported goods with domestically produced equivalents -- and support Russian industry into the bargain.

'Jingoism'

Coming amid controversy over Putin's decree to destroy illegally imported food -- and the frenzy of burning and bulldozing that ensued -- the threat of a ban has added fodder for accusations that the Kremlin is sacrificing the welfare of Russians for the sake of patriotic propaganda.

Critics say Russia just isn't ready.

Many companies that manufactured medical supplies in the Soviet era either collapsed or severely cut back their production after the disintegration of the U.S.S.R. in 1991, and Russia has since made little progress in supplanting foreign suppliers.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ban-on-medical-supplies/27204460.html

[mendeleyev]

ML:

I was referring to anonymous polls.

You were referring to open voting in Duma.

Open voting in the Duma by a member of parliament, of which all ministers enjoy immunity from prosecution. Until recently, that is. The Duma voted to strip away that immunity from just one person, Ilya Ponomarev, who just happened to cast the only vote against annexation of Crimea.

If immunity can be stripped from a single elected official because he dared to stand up to Putin & Co., imagine what a chill that sends to society. If that can happen to someone so powerful, imagine what could happen to those who have no voice.

I would argue that most Russians do not fully believe that anything dealing with government policy is truly "anonymous."

[mendeleyev]

For those who follow Amnesty International, two Ukrainian nationals were given long prison terms (20 years each) in Russia for their opposition to the annexation of Crimea.

One was a filmmaker, the other described as an antifascist ecologist: Oleg Sentsov and Aleksandr Kolchenko.

They were charged with arson after accused of planning to blow up a statue of Lenin.

The court found that the two possessed clear evidence of leading a terrorist group because when arrested they had "packets of anti-diarrhea medication and painkillers in their homes," and upon a physical search, police discovered "business cards from the Ukrainian minister of sport and the mayor of Kyiv" in their possession.

Well, that certainly goes a long way (at least in Russia) to proving that someone leads a terror group.

Reminder to self: immediately remove all painkillers and any anti-diarrhea meds from the bathroom cabinet!

http://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2015/08/russia-crimean-activists-sentenced-after-fatally-flawed-military-trial/

[SANDRO43]

They were charged with arson after accused of planning to blow up a statue of Lenin...The court found that the two possessed clear evidence of leading a terrorist group because when arrested they had "packets of anti-diarrhea medication and painkillers in their homes," and upon a physical search, police discovered "business cards from the Ukrainian minister of sport and the mayor of Kyiv" in their possession.

This would have been inspiring material for a Monty Python sketch .

[JayH]

Over the last year in various posts  the blind believers of Russian propaganda nonsense sought to ridicule my posts( and those of others) quoting Russian casualty numbers in Ukraine--despite the evidence. In addition to Russian military casualties referred to in the article below-- thousands of hired thugs have been killed and injured.In this article--is confirmation of officially recognised deaths.

The Russian censors have removed the incriminating information. The Kremlin will claim that the webcached material is a forgery. The figures, however, make sense and confirm what should be obvious to all: Russian troops are in east Ukraine and are being supplied with heavy weapons by Russia.  Deadly battles–such as those at Donetsk Airport and Debaltseve–have resulted in heavy casualties on each side. We also know how the Russian dead are secretly transported back to Russia for furtive burials.

Despite this mass of evidence, only one-quarter of Russians believe the Russia has troops in Ukraine. Will the presence of 3,200 war invalids and more than 2,000 grieving families erode the belief that Russia is not conducting a war with its own troops against Ukraine? It seems that time and events will raise the number of Russians who believe the truth.

Russia Inadvertently Posts Its Casualties In Ukraine: 2,000 Deaths, 3,200 Disabled

The Delovaya zhizn inadvertent (or deliberate?) revelation of more than two thousand combat deaths in east Ukraine not only destroys the Putin myth of a small number of deaths of Russian patriots defending Russians in Ukraine from neo-Nazi extremists but also demolishes Putin’s cover story that no “active” member of the Russian armed forces is or has been in Ukraine. According to Putin, if there are Russian fighters in Ukraine, they had resigned and gone as volunteers. Note that contract fighters are paid for each day in the combat zone. In Russian military jargon, a contract soldier (kontraktnik) contracts to serve a specific period of time in the military (usually three years) in return for compensation and other benefits. The clause on payment for contract soldiers blows a huge hole through the cover story.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2015/08/25/kremlin-censors-rush-to-erase-inadvertent-release-of-russian-casualties-in-east-ukraine/

[alex330]

"Commissioned in 1991, Kuznetsov was Russia's last new large warship. In the past 23 years, Moscow has managed to complete a few new submarines and small frigates and destroyers at its main Sevmash shipyard, on the North Atlantic coast. But many of Russia's current naval vessels — and all its large vessels — are Soviet leftovers. They're outdated, prone to mechanical breakdowns, and wickedly uncomfortable for their crews — especially compared to the latest U.S., European, and Chinese ships. Washington alone builds roughly eight new warships a year, including a brand-new nuclear carrier every four or five years."
http://theweek.com/articles/572496/russias-navy-falling-apart

[JayH]

"Commissioned in 1991, Kuznetsov was Russia's last new large warship. In the past 23 years, Moscow has managed to complete a few new submarines and small frigates and destroyers at its main Sevmash shipyard, on the North Atlantic coast. But many of Russia's current naval vessels — and all its large vessels — are Soviet leftovers. They're outdated, prone to mechanical breakdowns, and wickedly uncomfortable for their crews — especially compared to the latest U.S., European, and Chinese ships. Washington alone builds roughly eight new warships a year, including a brand-new nuclear carrier every four or five years."
http://theweek.com/articles/572496/russias-navy-falling-apart

One of the realities that Putin has done his best to ignore-- only the sheer size and nuclear capability  makes the Russian military dangerous!
The facts are they would get wiped out  in any total situation--the only question is how much damage they may do  while that process took place.In any limited confrontation ie-less than nuclear and geographically limited would see the Russian destroyed-- their equipment is significently inferior.
Ukraine is on the knife edge now--and attempt to escalate by Russia could lead to increased western help( I can only hope) and the difference from 12 months ago-- the means is much closer to being in place.

US sends F-22 fighter jets to Europe as part of Ukraine response

Warplanes will train alongside Eurofighter and other Nato aircraft as ‘Russia’s military activity continues to be of great concern’, says air force secretary

The US is to deploy F-22 fighter jets to Europe as part of efforts to support eastern European members of the Nato alliance unnerved by Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

“Russia’s military activity in the Ukraine continues to be of great concern to us and to our European allies,” the air force secretary, Deborah James, told a news conference at the Pentagon. “For the air force an F-22 deployment is certainly on the strong side of the coin.”

James did not give details about the specific number of planes, date or location of the deployment but said it was in line with defence secretary Ash Carter’s recent call for a strong and balanced approach to Russia.


Nato reports surge in jet interceptions as Russia tensions increase
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The first deployment of the Lockheed Martin Corp F-22 to Europe outside air shows is seen as a move to address growing concerns among Nato allies about Russian military aggression. The air force has also been using radar-evading F-22 fighter jets to carry out some its attacks against Islamic State, the first real combat air strikes by the jets.

The air force chief of staff, General Mark Welsh James, said the F-22’s inaugural training deployment in Europe would allow US forces to train with Nato partners across Europe, testing the ability of the jets to communicate and fight together with the Eurofighter and other advanced warplanes.

James said the deployment would give F-22 pilots more experience with the European terrain. The air force has previously used the jets in Japan and South Korea.

Welsh said it would also allow the jets to fly into and out of facilities that could be used in some future conflict.

The single-seat, twin-engine, all-weather stealth tactical fighter aircraft was designed by Lockheed and Boeing as an air superiority fighter but can also be used for ground attack, electronic warfare and signals intelligence.

The jets formally entered service in December 2005, with the last F-22 delivered to the air force in 2012.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/25/us-sends-f-22-fighter-jets-to-europe-as-part-of-ukraine-response

[ML]

First, let me state that I know nothing about military capability, even as I served 4 years in US Navy way back when.

However, I cannot buy into the idea that Russia is weak militarily.

Again, I am not the expert that some here might be, but . . .

* Despite being backward at the time, Russia (with help of millions of sacrificed Ukrainians) did rise to the challenge and defeat invincible (up to then) German military in the East areas.

* Despite what is being said about Russia's aircraft problems, their planes did cause USA a lot of trouble in Korea.

* Despite many general problems ascribed to Russia, they did help the North Viet kick USA out of Vietnam.

* Despite all the weaknesses, Russia did negotiate us to a stalemate regarding Cuba.

In short, I see no reason to believe that Russia cannot rise to the challenge today, overcome all odds, survive, and continue to give us trouble for the indefinite future; with Putin or without him.

Note: I say here Russia but fully realize it was USSR back then.

[JayH]

ML---  I know your heart is in the right place and the frustration your head feels is also shared. Others have commented  above about Russians not being free to comment openly-- and my overiding point was 2 fold- what purpose can they achieve by sticking their neck out and history has taught holding your tongue was a good idea.


Eight Russians Who Have Taken A Stand

On August 25, 1968, eight Soviet citizens came out into Red Square to protest the Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia. Under the banner "For your freedom and ours," the protesters were quickly arrested by the KGB and most suffered years of exile or imprisonment for their quixotic gesture.

Now, 47 years later, some Russian citizens feel they are in a similar situation -- pushed by their consciences to protest policies that the overwhelming majority of Russians accept. Many of these dissenters -- Aleksei Navalny, Boris Nemtsov, Pussy Riot, Yevgenia Chirikova, and others -- are well known in the West. But there are many more that have received less attention.

In recognition of the eight 1968 Red Square protesters -- Larisa Bogoraz, Konstantin Babitsky, Tatyana Bayeva, Vadim Delaunay, Vladimir Dremlyuga, Viktor Fainberg, Natalya Gorbanevskaya, and Pavel Litvinov -- RFE/RL is highlighting eight of the lesser-known Russians who have risked their safety, their jobs, and their liberty to follow their consciences.

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-eight-who-have-taken-a-stand/27208063.html