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Author Topic: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)  (Read 304819 times)

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Online krimster2

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #250 on: March 07, 2020, 07:03:36 PM »
3 numbers really determine the mortality rate of a virus...

the first is R0, or reproducibility rate, the number of people on average a single infected person will infect...
this virus has is a 50% higher R0 then the common version of flu

next number is virulence, this virus is over 40 times more deadly than the flu and skews towards older people...

last is the size of the number infected, common flu can infect about 5% of a given population in just one season...that's 15 million, here in the US of A

this virus DOES NOT like to grow in warm weather, and prefers below 51 degree F....

in the USA, at the moment the virus is growing at the rate of about 20 to 25% per day
by the end of tomorrow we will probably have over 500 cases in the USA not counting the over 600 in the cruise ship of fools

I would expect a decrease in the rate of transmission soon because of the change in temp

but then when flu season starts in October, I expect this to EXPLODE....

we are where China was in December....
I expect our entry to the exponential will happen, but not as quickly as  China's because of the weather
but I expect to have 100,000 cases here in the USA by December.....

this means a 10% drop in USA's GDP
this means ALL schools and non-essential government offices will be closed
and restaurants and many, many other businesses
public transport
store shelves are empty
all by December...

in America many people have their health insurance tied to their jobs
and a million people are gonna get laid off
and lose their health insurance

your kid broke his arm, and you want to get into the ER?
forget about it, go see a doctor instead, if he's not dead....
suddenly prices on everything starts skyrocketing...

your world by December friends
« Last Edit: March 07, 2020, 07:07:28 PM by krimster2 »

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #251 on: March 07, 2020, 07:11:43 PM »
I would expect a decrease in the rate of transmission soon because of the change in temp

but then when flu season starts in October, I expect this to EXPLODE....


WHO said "This virus is not SARS, it’s not MERS, and it’s not influenza. It is a unique virus with unique characteristics." and "at the moment there is no vaccine and no specific treatment for COVID-19" and "we must do everything we can to contain it."

This is not the flu and behaves differently and may survive the hotter months and continue to infect people. WHO says it's false hope to think this virus will disappear in the summer like the flu. I suspect WHO put the virus in a hotter environment to mimic Summer and were disappointed to learn it still survived.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/its-a-false-hope-coronavirus-will-disappear-in-the-summer-like-the-flu-who-says/ar-BB10QrLc?ocid=spartanntp
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Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #252 on: March 09, 2020, 02:18:37 PM »
3 numbers really determine the mortality rate of a virus...

the first is R0, or reproducibility rate, the number of people on average a single infected person will infect...
this virus has is a 50% higher R0 then the common version of flu

next number is virulence, this virus is over 40 times more deadly than the flu and skews towards older people...

last is the size of the number infected, common flu can infect about 5% of a given population in just one season...that's 15 million, here in the US of A


krimster.  You have this confused.   Two of your variables (R0 and "number infected") are essentially the same. 

An epidemiologist would estimate morbidity using something such as the D-O-T-S formula, where:

                    D = duration of time that an infected person can infect others
                    O = opportunity for contact with other persons  (quarantine would be near zero while
                                        flying, sports events, movie theater, etc.  would be high)
                    T = transmission (for COVID-19 shaking hands, touching surfaces, coughing, etc.)
                    S = susceptibility of person contacted (age, health, vaccinations when available, etc.)

The "O" and "T" determine exposure and can be mostly controlled by individual behavior.  Death and recovery are subsets of number infected.   

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #253 on: March 09, 2020, 03:33:22 PM »
If every person on earth got to experience this new virus once, we'd wish we had the flu instead.

I am guessing BillyB doesn't realise that many people hardly know they've had it ...





Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #254 on: March 09, 2020, 03:51:17 PM »
I am guessing BillyB doesn't realise that many people hardly know they've had it ...

There are also dead people that didn't know they had it too. CDC says adults get 2-3 colds a year. I don't feel like I got that many colds each year. Sometimes I don't know I got it. Other times I definitely know I got it. COVID-19, related to the cold virus, may act the same way as a cold where we may not feel it sometimes and other times we do.
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Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #255 on: March 09, 2020, 08:40:09 PM »
'Sorry', I was seeking a coherent riposte to pointing out that many infected people do / did not realise they had THE virus...

I expect that whilst those who have died may not have appreciated why...but, 'guess what'?! .....

I have a feeling medics know and report, accordingly...

Do you 'get' my point..?

Must I do the make it v.simple so that Silly Billy gets it, too...?

The figures for those dying, having been infected, are FAR more accurate than those infected.



« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 08:43:12 PM by msmob »

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #256 on: March 09, 2020, 09:17:38 PM »
I have a feeling medics know and report, accordingly...


How Sherlock Holmes? Your feelings aren't facts. Most medical professionals never seen and won't be able to identify this new virus. Patient comes in with flu symptoms and later dies. Influenza gets blamed. Money and time aren't going to get spent to take a culture sample from a dead person to send to a laboratory for confirmation on what actually killed the person. See Krimster's post saying Chinese had a 50% increase in influenza cases. Not hard to figure out what is going on.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #257 on: March 10, 2020, 01:18:18 AM »
My 'feelings' are somewhat less orientated to 'conspiracy theory'...

Those with such an outlook grasp that manipulating figures will be obvious, after other nations experience a serious outbreak.

The numbers for those infected are much more inaccurate than those dying.

In the meantime your unique interpretation of the data would amuse, if it wasn't such a sad topic.


Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #258 on: March 10, 2020, 04:44:26 PM »
My wife had an appointment today with a specialist physician.  Among different forms she signed, she had to complete a written form that asked a few questions to assess the risk of whether she has a COVID-19 infection.

If a patient says they are sick with COVID-19 symptoms,  the staff measures their vital signs, and advises them to  "STAY HOME."  Hydrate, take anti-inflammatory medicine, and rest. 

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #259 on: March 10, 2020, 09:22:55 PM »

Propaganda machine has been turned on because Chinese citizens are angry at their government. China state controlled media is now saying the virus could've come from another country. If that was the case, they should've have been claiming the virus came from a meat market and silenced whistleblowers. While the world is busy with their own epidemics, China is rewriting history.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/beijing-objects-to-term-wuhan-coronavirus-and-says-it-may-not-have-originated-in-china/ar-BB10YD26?ocid=spartanntp

Top Communist official in Wuhan calls for gratitude education for all so citizens may show their appreciation for the government that saved their country. Sounds like he's got a hard on for a promotion. Although the Chinese government thinks the Chinese government are heroes, the doctors who tried to sound the alarm early and forced China's hand into reporting the virus to WHO are the heroes. While the world is busy with the gift China gave them, China is rewriting history.

http://www.yahoo.com/news/wuhan-official-called-gratitude-education-190949766.html

November 2019 China was hit by the plague and silenced whistleblower doctors. Sound familiar? They finally reported it to WHO only after what was happening posted on social media. They got the plague under control. Probably gave them confidence they'd the virus of the century under control.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/16/china-bubonic-plague-outbreak-pandemic/
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #260 on: March 10, 2020, 09:56:38 PM »
BillyB,

It's not just China blaming 'the west' ..

YOU blamed the Chinese ... suggesting it had 'escaped from a biolab'..

Seeing any common denominator ? ...






Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #261 on: March 10, 2020, 10:20:02 PM »
YOU blamed the Chinese ...


That's because they admitted it was their baby. Now they don't want to pay child support.
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #262 on: March 11, 2020, 05:41:04 AM »
CDC advises the elderly to stock up on supplies and stay home as much as possible.

This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #263 on: March 11, 2020, 06:34:27 AM »
Germany's Merkel warned that up to 70% of the country's population could become infected.

Her point,  and a good one, is that Germany needs to take measures not to prevent the outbreak but to slow it.   Otherwise the Germany healthcare system will be overwhelmed.  Does she plan to follow the Italy model? 

For those of you in Europe, what is the public reaction?   

Offline msmob

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #264 on: March 11, 2020, 06:49:50 AM »
CDC advises the elderly to stock up on supplies and stay home as much as possible.

This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝

IF / When you, I or a family member gets infected, I'm sure the members will remember what a public service we're being ...

Offline Gator

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #265 on: March 11, 2020, 06:54:15 AM »
When will the world have therapeutic treatment for COVID-19?

One possible treatment is to use pharmaceuticals intended to counteract autoimmune diseases, because many of the COVID-19 deaths result from overreaction by the body's natural autoimmune system.  Thus, one such pharmaceutical is that used to treat  rheumatoid arthritis.  Although not approved by FDA, it has been given to some patients on a "mercy" basis, and it was beneficial.

There are many other possible candidates, and every pharmaceutical company in the world is likely busy analyzing the possibilities.   I feel the world will have something effective within months. 

When will we have a COVID-19 vaccine?  Supposedly those patients who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection have developed an immunity to contracting future infection.  That's a good sign.    Hundreds of thousands of  Jonas Salk wannabes are laboring in their labs.    One will find the answer.

The problem is that viruses change.    Next year could be worse.   

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #266 on: March 11, 2020, 08:01:14 AM »
When will the world have therapeutic treatment for COVID-19?


Just saw a report on Capitol Hill this morning that they are in fact already administering this on multiple *infected* volunteers, both here in the US and China. I missed the gentleman's name though.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #267 on: March 11, 2020, 08:02:12 AM »
Germany's Merkel warned that up to 70% of the country's population could become infected.

Her point,  and a good one, is that Germany needs to take measures not to prevent the outbreak but to slow it.   Otherwise the Germany healthcare system will be overwhelmed.  Does she plan to follow the Italy model? 

For those that have been pooh pooh'ing the potential of this virus, the numbers and latest reactions should be a signal that this may wind up being extremely serious.  I recall reading numerous times how this was killing so much less than the flu, or comparing abortions to the number of deaths.   

It seems in the coming days, quarantines will be a coming. 

Fathertime! 
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #268 on: March 11, 2020, 08:07:02 AM »
it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝


Not much traffic jams in Seattle right now. Feels nice but if people continue to lose school and work, the economy will suffer.

One possible treatment is to use pharmaceuticals intended to counteract autoimmune diseases, because many of the COVID-19 deaths result from overreaction by the body's natural autoimmune system.  Thus, one such pharmaceutical is that used to treat  rheumatoid arthritis.  Although not approved by FDA, it has been given to some patients on a "mercy" basis, and it was beneficial.


Medical professionals have been trying cocktails of all kinds of medicines to find if something works. WHO put out a statement last week that there is no cure. People going to try to find and claim they found one anyway. Some people have washed bleach and other products on their bodies thinking it works. Others have increased their consumption of alcohol. Until WHO or CDC puts out a statement of a vaccine or treatment, I don't believe anything I read.

Supposedly those patients who have recovered from a COVID-19 infection have developed an immunity to contracting future infection. 


In a matter of months, we now have two strains of COVID-19 running around. Our immune system can't stop the flu from affecting our bodies again and most likely can't stop COVID-19. We need a vaccine but it would take years to develop one. Since it's related to a cold virus, years may pass us by and it'll sink in that there may never be a vaccine. Nevertheless, governments will continue to put out the story they are working hard on it and labs will report to the media they are close to discovering one. Stories like that are already out but its all BS.

Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

Offline fathertime

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #269 on: March 11, 2020, 08:10:16 AM »

This is a great idea! For one, it’ll free up the carpool and fast lanes and will eliminate traffic jams in LA. Thank you COVID-19! 😝
I'm going to carry on for another day today.  Going to be doing some driving through LA/IE today.  I'll be curious to see if traffic is any different.  I come in contact with a lot of people, and due to this I'd expect to catch the virus at some point if the numbers are correct.  Maybe I survive but others around me most certainly would not, and the potential of that is disturbing enough to at least give me a moment's pause...nevertheless going to carry on for now.   If clusters start to pop up in this area, I think I would indeed have to then reassess and perhaps button down, at which point everyone else would probably do the same, and the dreaded TP shortage would ruin my enjoyment of a good crap...among other things.   

Fathertime!   
I just happened to be browsing about the internet....

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #270 on: March 11, 2020, 08:22:10 AM »
Not much traffic jams in Seattle right now. Feels nice but if people continue to lose school and work, the economy will suffer.


That's awesome! You're experiencing immediate benefit of not having the elderlies driving around. Now if we can somehow get the Asian flu-20 started it'd really free up our roads and freeways
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline GQBlues

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #271 on: March 11, 2020, 10:11:08 AM »
Earlier in this thread I had mentioned that the possible genesis of this virus was transferred via what is known as 'zoonotics', simply defined as: a disease that can be transmitted from animals to people or, more specifically, a disease that normally exists in animals but that can infect humans. There are multitudes of zoonotic diseases. Some examples include: anthrax.

Then I mentioned and speculated about the Asiatic regions' love for their wet markets aka snake alleys, where there's a section of the markets where caged live animals of all types are offered and prepared as fresh meat, and I wasn't too far off apparently...

I just now found a video detailing this *likely* cause of the virus...

Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BillyB

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #272 on: March 11, 2020, 10:33:47 AM »

Then I mentioned and speculated about the Asiatic regions' love for their wet markets aka snake alleys, where there's a section of the markets where caged live animals of all types are offered and prepared as fresh meat, and I wasn't too far off apparently...





I listened to half the video but there is no evidence the virus came from an animal just suspicion. WHO put out a statement they don't have a definitive answer to the source but they are still looking for the source. Infected coronavirus meat has not been found. There is no animal herd, snake farm, or bat cave that houses the virus. There's not a single animal on earth that has been detected to have this coronavirus. Correction. A Chinese woman has recently given it to her dog but the dog is not the source.


The expert in the video shouldn't be ignored. He's considered the world's best expert on coronavirus and said this virus is much more dangerous than SARS and can infect 60% of the population on the first wave. The journalist predicted that amount of people multiplied by mortality rate and concluded up to 45 million people will die. Keep in mind, the mortality rate that is being reported is very low because China manipulated the numbers and also of the widespread use of incorrect methods to calculate mortality rates.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 10:42:20 AM by BillyB »
Fund the audits, spread the word and educate people, write your politicians and other elected officials. Stay active in the fight to save our country. Over 220 generals and admirals say we are in a fight for our survival like no other time since 1776.

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #273 on: March 11, 2020, 11:28:46 AM »
So, not a Chinese biolab error?..

BillyB...you have posted SO much nonsense re this virus...

Offline IvanM07

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Re: 2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)
« Reply #274 on: March 11, 2020, 11:35:59 AM »
So, not a Chinese biolab error?..

BillyB...you have posted SO much nonsense re this virus...

pot, meet kettle.

 

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