2019 - nCoV (novel coronavirus originating in Wuhan, China)

[GQBlues]

The Florida Dept of Health COVID-19 Dashboard, now report number of cases by postal zip code. 

If more than 5 cases, the exact number of cases is listed.  Zero cases is also shown.  If 1-5, the number of cases is reported as 1- 5 to protect individual rights.

As of 4/5 - California:

Total tested to date: 131,533
Positive: 13,438 (LA = 5,275)
Negative: 103,095
Pending:15,000

Currently hospitalized: 2,398
In ICU: 1,040
On ventilator: None
Death: 319

If the tested count represent the first responders + symptomatic patients, this means California is not doing too bad, with approximately 18% of the positive getting hospitalized. Of that, 43% in ICU with no one on ventilators.

Death rate, tested persons, 0.24+/-%; from confirmed cases,  2.4%

[msmob]

Japan is right next to China and they haven't declared a state of emergency yet. Even if they do, they are 45 days behind Western nations which means they have a very slow spread compared to others. Figure it out.

BillyB,

face it - you were WRONG .. 

I figure you'll try to spin out of any stupid comment you make ..

YOU told us Japan has this 'under control' .. 

Korea is as close to China as Japan ..

[GQBlues]

TICKING TIME BOMBS?

Why are less developed nations reporting very low number of cases?   I assume it is because they can not afford the expense of extensive testing.  Fewer tests will produce fewer cases.  Consider these  three nations in the subcontinent.


                     Population       Number of Cases

Pakistan             200 million                1,865

Bangladesh         160 million                    51


India               1,300 million               1,251 


They have densely populated areas where social co-mingling is as problematic as in NYC, if not worse.  If these numbers are due to the lack of testing, I contend they are ticking time bombs with number of deaths more catastrophic than in NYC, giving rise to the doomsday envisioned by Krimster.   

Consider India.  India a few days ago implemented a stringent lockdown.  It inadvertently caused 45 million migrant workers to flee the large cities and  return to their villages, possibly accelerating the areal spread.  Such has implications for starvation.   

Apparently, studies are underway that, at this time, seem to suggest why places like India (maybe even Russia to some extent), seem impervious to massive infection.

BCG Vaccine

The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine to prevent tuberculosis, which has been given to Indian children since 1949, and which around 97% of the 26 million Indian children born every year received last year, appears to offer protection against coronavirus disease (Covid-19), according to US researchers who analysed the wide variation in the intensity of the disease in different countries. It also helps lower cases of Covid-19 in a country, the researchers found.

Australia seemed to have spearheaded the clinical trials...

[BC]

GQ,

Was watching this on German news the other day.  Max Plank Institute who developed the vaccine also started trials at hospitals in several hospitals in Germany, and it's being replicated in several countries.

The huge advantage is that some of the trials, i.e. safety trials that test only whether or not the vaccine causes harm, can be skipped as they have already been done.  This saves a few months time, maybe more.

I also hope it works.

[GQBlues]

GQ,

Was watching this on German news the other day.  Max Plank Institute who developed the vaccine also started trials at hospitals in several hospitals in Germany, and it's being replicated in several countries.

The huge advantage is that some of the trials, i.e. safety trials that test only whether or not the vaccine causes harm, can be skipped as they have already been done.  This saves a few months time, maybe more.

I also hope it works.

I hope so, too BC! Could be a gamechanger

[BC]

There are many candidates that we hope will work.  If you want to call them all possible game-changers that's fine 

[jone]

On another note: 

People always say that no one tells about stock purchases until after the event.   I went in heavy today on Chemical Financial.  My take is that the financial sector was hit hard without sustaining the direct material losses the airlines did and the vacation/leisure stocks did.  If CHFC demonstrates what I think it will over the next week, I'll look at some other offerings of a similar nature.

Were I a betting man (and I am sometimes) I would begin to look at energy stocks.  Okay.  That is my current strategy.   Take it apart.

[Gator]

I went in heavy today on Chemical Financial. ... Take it apart.

Too much good news to sit on the sidelines.  Boris could spook the market.   

Chemical is good choice considering the price of feedstock will be low even after COVID-19 is defeated.  I bought Dow Chemical.  Us old folks like dividends and their cash can can covere the distributions.

Had bought NVDA near the bottom and sold too early.   However, can't go broke takin' It's screaming up.  Millenials!   

 

[GQBlues]

That is good news. I don't like my governor's politics but it's great he's not sitting on them ventilators if we're not needing them and letting go to other parts of America that could use them. Teamwork and cooperation is what we need to save lives and combat the virus, not politics.

Just like that, Billy...our governor sent back 500 ventilators to the national stockpile.

I'm not quite certain why none of the states/cities are reporting ventilator usages but seem to always be primal in their needs during these press conferences along with hospital beds and PPEs...

[Gator]

MORE NEWS ABOUT HCQ FROM THE HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY

Rheumatologists have a long history of prescribing HCQ to lupus patients. They state the drug is safe at the dosages they use.

Let's take this another step. 300,000 people in the US have lupus and likely take HCQ on a regular basis.   Have they been infected by COVID-19?   

A "data cruncher"  analyzed the insurance data for 14,000 lupus patients and discovered not one has COVID-19.   

Yes, very preliminary, and certainly ANECDOTAL.  Yet it calls for a more comprehensive analysis of national insurance records.   

[GQBlues]

So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?

[Gator]

GOOD NEWS

The actual number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are well below the predictions made by IHME model used by the White House Task Force.  You may recall the model projected 91,000 cumulative deaths by June-July, within a range of 40,000 - 170,000 deaths.  And the doctors on the Task Force sadvised we should prepare for them. 

Because the actual data came in lower, the  scientists adjusted the model lower.  That was a few days ago.  Guess what!  Today's numbers are below the revised predictions.   

There are a variety of explanations offered by observers.  One theory is the American public implemented the social distancing guidelines better than expected.  That would explain lower cases, but IMO not lower hospitalizations, which lag new cases.  Nor would it explain lower deaths, which lag hospitalizations.   

The adjustments downward are not huge, yet it seems the crisis about exceeding hospital capacity will never happen.

Tomorrow will bring new numbers, and the experts will be out in force.

[Gator]

We are not the only nation experiencing such downward trends in the spread of the disease.  Reports are that Denmark, which is said to have resembled the pace of the US outbreak, plan to open their schools next week.  Austria is planning a similar openings, to include opening its restaurants in mid-May. 

It is possible COVID-19 outbreaks could rebound as supposedly is now happening in Singapore.  However, the doomsayers need to relax, and our policy makers should be developing a plan on getting America back to work.    I contend the economic recovery will be more challenging than the disease. 

 

[BillyB]

MORE NEWS ABOUT HCQ FROM THE HEALTHCARE COMMUNITY

Rheumatologists have a long history of prescribing HCQ to lupus patients. They state the drug is safe at the dosages they use.

Let's take this another step. 300,000 people in the US have lupus and likely take HCQ on a regular basis.   Have they been infected by COVID-19?   

A "data cruncher"  analyzed the insurance data for 14,000 lupus patients and discovered not one has COVID-19.   

Yes, very preliminary, and certainly ANECDOTAL.  Yet it calls for a more comprehensive analysis of national insurance records.   

Is giving HCQ to healthy people for life as a cure a good thing? Lots of experts aren't sold yet on HCQ as being effective against the virus. Doctors aren't saying its a cure but some doctors say it's a possible treatment to shorten the battle a person has with the virus.

Why a treatment that may work? Does it actually work against the virus? Probably not. People with lupus have an immune system that attacks healthy tissue and HCQ prevents that. One problem with  those who have a serious case of COVID-19 is that their immune system can go into overdrive to the point they create so many antibodies that it attacks healthy tissue kinda like what happens to those with lupus. The coronavirus and a person's immune system can both team up and kill living tissue although they are fighting against each other. While HCQ is probably ineffective against the virus, it's certainly effective in preventing a person's immune system from destroying healthy tissue and thus speed up recovery as doctors have noticed.

I know many people here don't like the Cuomo brothers but there is important info in the videos below about how to beat COVID-19. Most people battling COVID-19 will do it within their homes, not a hospital, so they won't have access to doctors and good advice. In the first video Chris talks about strange dreams and shares humor with his brother. Second video he got a call from a doctor giving tips on how to beat the virus and laying down still can help the virus to win. Good stuff in the videos you need to know you ever get COVID-19.

http://www.yahoo.com/huffpost/chris-cuomo-coronavirus-advice-121155247.html

[Gator]

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

Flattening the economy unless we get back to work.

We have lived with widespread deadly diseases before in the history of America while fighting Redcoats, Indians, etc..   COVID-19 is something we will be able to manage with the much improved testing that surely will come.    I predict we we will have better therapeutics, maybe even better than HCQ.    Likely a prophylactic.    I don't worry.         

[calmissile]

So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?

A very good, thought provoking question.

[BillyB]

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

It's best to talk about one problem at a time. It's best not to talk about a problem that has yet to arrive. But I'm sure they're working on the next step and so on.

Jan 20 America recorded it's first Coronavirus case and the guy didn't eat the meat at the Chinese meat market. Jan 20 is also the day China admits to the world human to human transmission is possible. They knew they couldn't keep it secret any longer since other nations would soon confirm what they previously wouldn't.

Two months after America's first case, much of America and the world's economies come to a halt and hospitals are overwhelmed. Two and a half months after our first case, America records 400,000 infections but experts predict it's easily over half a million infections since many haven't taken the test.

After the curve is flattened, infections will increase again but slowly because humans have altered our behavior. We will kiss less, we will not go to functions that have mass crowds, we will practice social distancing everywhere we go but infections will still increase over time to the point we need to shut it down again.

  I predict we we will have better therapeutics, maybe even better than HCQ.   
     

I hope so but as powerful as Google is, Google has not shown me a single vaccine or treatment that has been found for any coronavirus man has encountered in the past.

[fathertime]

So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?

Whatever happens, happens.  Less activity perhaps, the introverts will thrive in the new more dangerous world.   When  the businesses and activities I like start to open up, I'm going out and doing what I want.  I'll probably be more cautious but if it kills me, it would be ok.  I'm the oldest and while healthy, I'm still the most health challenged in my immediate family, the way it should be.   Others are free to isolate with their toilet paper, vitamins, and slippers all day.  I won't begrudge them at all, but it won't be me.

Fathertime!   

[BC]

GOOD NEWS

As posted before, I would be very careful with building expectations at this point.  A new spike can be just around the corner.  Takes more than a couple days to define a trend.. a lot more.

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=24217.msg531641#msg531641

[BC]

So where do we go from here until they finally get the vaccine? Which will be from 18-24 months.

They keep talking about flattening the curve, but then what?

All the current cases will either die or recovered, yet it won't mean we had gotten rid of the virus. Businesses slowly begin to come back and people begin gathering again...do we then begin the lockdown cycle again?

Or are we resigned to self-isolation until the vaccine?

GQ,

The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely.  Folks can adjust their measures depending on how they test.  Borders must become very stringent.  In the case of the US, states like California that first implemented containment and lockdown measures will have to protect their state lines to prevent reinfection just as a country would.  Otherwise, we'll be chasing our tail forever.  Have to remember until we know otherwise the majority of the population is still susceptible to this bug.

IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.

 

[Gator]

As posted before, I would be very careful with building expectations at this point.  A new spike can be just around the corner.  Takes more than a couple days to define a trend.. a lot more.

True, but "good news" is a step in the right direction.   The data each day show progress, and each day of progress while still distancing is one day closer to getting out of this situation.   

For sure its not yet what we need to get back to work.  Nevertheless, we should be making transitional plans.     

     

[Gator]

The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely.  Folks can adjust their measures depending on how they test.

 

You and I agree.  That was part of  my response to GQ. 

Borders must become very stringent.  In the case of the US, states like California that first implemented containment and lockdown measures will have to protect their state lines to prevent reinfection just as a country would. 

Thorny issue for Americans and our sense of individual freedoms.   I recall you not long ago  opposing the restrictions about stopping New Yorkers.   Maybe travelers should have their body temperature measured at the border?   Or allowed to enter only if having a recent negative test.

Otherwise, we'll be chasing our tail forever.  Have to remember until we know otherwise the majority of the population is still susceptible to this bug.

Need a transitional plan rather than await for an "all clear" announcement.  Waiting until we have a vaccine or proven prophylactic  is too long.   

IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.

Restrictions can be eased in step with expanded testing.  How?  Need people much smarter than me to make such plans. 

[BC]

Thorny issue for Americans and our sense of individual freedoms.   I recall you not long ago  opposing the restrictions about stopping New Yorkers.   Maybe travelers should have their body temperature measured at the border?   Or allowed to enter only if having a recent negative test.

IIRC I felt it would not be feasible as it was already too late for such.  Think was the first post with the radar picture of aeroplanes flying around.  No sense to block roads in and out when passenger planes are flying overhead.  Measuring temperature won't be effective for those that are infected but have no symptoms.

Need a transitional plan rather than await for an "all clear" announcement.  Waiting until we have a vaccine or proven prophylactic  is too long.

Indeed.  Testing and releasing those with antibodies is the only viable method I see.  Some, likely those that test negative but without antibodies may have to be restricted at a higher level for a while to come or segregated somehow until a good vaccine is available. Those that are infected will have to be isolated along with tracking down any contacts.  Maybe injecting antibodies from blood serum into non-infected folks will work as a stopgap.

Restrictions can be eased in step with expanded testing.  How?  Need people much smarter than me to make such plans.

Bottom line, your front door is the only thing you can control as an individual.  The rest may seem complicated but will certainly take some months time.  Until I am tested and know my status I'll remain in isolation, taking pretty much the same precautions as now along with my family.

The big question is do we have an exit strategy... here it is being actively worked on and should hear something official in the next week or so, If it's not ready the lockdown may be loosened a wee bit but not much and extended until formalized and ready.

I don't know if any exit strategy will be acceptable in the WH as all will take time and much effort to do it right.  'Cut 'em loose' is dangerous IMHO as evidenced by new flareups in other countries.

[BillyB]

The only logical way forward so far that I see is to start testing on a national scale to identify and isolate remaining active cases along with antibody testing to find those that can work more freely.

IMHO testing on a massive scale is warranted before restrictions are relaxed too far.

Faeroe Islands is the only nation on earth that tested 10% of their population. No other nation on earth come close. Italy tested just over 1% of their population and America is half of that. It's easy to find the first 1% of the population to test. It's near impossible to find the last 1% of the population. They could be homeless, don't want to participate, and/or in the middle of nowhere. Achieving 100% testing of 7.8 billion people has worst odds than the toughest lottery. All it takes is one person to slip through the cracks and within months, we got another pandemic.

Also....no test is 100% accurate. China has created the most tests kits and shipped them all over the world. Spain reported the test kits having a 30% accuracy. Czech Republic reported the test kits having a 20% accuracy. Multiply the difficulty of being able to test 100% of the people times the difficulty of making a 100% accurate test kit and you will conclude it's easier to find a vaccine for a coronavirus which currently is something mankind has never achieved. With the latest medical advances and the largest effort ever to hunt for a vaccine, maybe we will be able to finally find a vaccine for a coronavirus which just happens to be the worst coronavirus that we've ever experienced.

[ML]

I don't understand this idea of trying to test everyone.

All a test indicates (ignoring false negatives and false positives) is the situation at that point in time.

The next day, a person who tested negatively could then acquire the virus.

This also applies to all those who have already been tested.