What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[jone]

Nah, look how much Chicago has changed for the better!

[calmissile]

Kool aid comes in many different flavors. It's obvious you have a favorite. I'm curious about what you think will happen to free press in the NEW Ukraine. According to the recent actions of deputy head of Ukraine’s committee on freedom of speech, the aim is to suppress. Check this out:

http://www.euronews.com/2014/03/19/ukranian-tv-boss-assaulted-and-forced-to-resign-by-far-right-svoboda-mps/

It has been said here before, the members of Rada didn't change after Yanukovich's ouster. The NEW Ukrainian government is the same as it was before. The corruption, the intimidation isn't going anywhere. If I were a betting man, I would wager that things aren't going to change all that much in the NEW Ukraine. Lies, deceit, and corruption will always be a part of Ukrainian politics.

Actually, I think you are drinking too much Russian Kool Aid.  LOL
Perhaps if you were in Ukraine, or your wife was from Ukraine instead of Russia, your analysis would be different.

You seem to provide no basis other than your biases against Ukraine to suggest that the corruption will not be fought and largely eliminated.  If you have any evidence to support that position other than your biases, please provide it.

Here are a few links to recent stories about fighting corruption in Ukraine.....  Please remember the interim government in Kiev has only been in power for a very short time.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/ex-ministers-house-searched-as-part-of-gas-scheming-inquiry-340401.html

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/police-seize-286000-and-hr-659000-from-ex-agrarian-minister-prysiazhniuk-340402.html

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/cash-jewelry-seized-in-ex-ukrainian-ministers-offices-apartments-340446.html

Lets wait and see what happens after the May elections.

Your reference to the right wing nuts that attacked the Russian TV owner is comical.  Let's see how that compares with the Russian "free press". 

Yanuckovich cut off the independent TV channels in Ukraine while he was still in power,  Russia cut off the independent TV channels (particularily Channel 5) in Crimea, while he changed all channels to Russian propaganda programming.   Yes, your mother Russia have an outstanding record of 'free press'.   LOL

[Gator]

If I were a betting man, I would wager that things aren't going to change all that much in the NEW Ukraine. Lies, deceit, and corruption will always be a part of Ukrainian politics.

If that is the case, the EU will not do much to rebuild Ukraine.  "Lies, deceit and corruption" would make them the same as Russia. 

That statement is wrong because Russia has huge oil and gas exports and Ukraine has minimal exports.   So Ukraine would become more like Haiti.   Haiti receives much aid yet remains a basket case because it can not reduce corruption. 

[jone]

DS,

The BIG question is whether the Ukrainian government changes for the better.  All of the other Eastern European countries who went through changes after the fall of the Soviet Union have emerged as somewhat reputable democracies, with free press and oversight on corruption.  Ukraine has a meddlesome babushka next door who, with her meddling, has prevented Ukraine from ever getting married to democratic principles.  I, for one, cannot discount it, but do not have as much faith as Calmissile that things will be different.

It continues to be in Russia's best interest to have a weak next door neighbor that can be bullied.  What scares Putin and his government is having a successful and prosperous next door neighbor who follows the footprints of, say, Poland or the Czech Republic. 

For those who lived in the times of the Soviet Union, it must be very strange thinking that the West is now represented by all of Germany, Poland and the Baltics.  It is quite amazing of the pushback that Putin is getting meddling in what was once the assumed lynch pin to the west of the Soviet hegemony, Ukraine.  I don't think he will continue to have much traction.  And his saber rattling will get him further in the Dog House, DogSpot.

[Misha]

Lies, deceit, and corruption will always be a part of Ukrainian politics.

The said could have been said of the Republic of Georgia before its revolution. However, for better or for worse, Georgia did put into place measures to fight corruption. If the election in Ukraine brings in people who are intent on fighting corruption, anything is possible. An interesting analysis of the Georgian efforts: [size=78%]http://www.silkroadstudies.org/new/docs/silkroadpapers/1209Engvall.pdf[/size]

[dogspot]

Actually, I think you are drinking too much Russian Kool Aid.  LOL
Perhaps if you were in Ukraine, or your wife was from Ukraine instead of Russia, your analysis would be different.

You seem to provide no basis other than your biases against Ukraine to suggest that the corruption will not be fought and largely eliminated.  If you have any evidence to support that position other than your biases, please provide it.

Not really. I think that the Russian government and the Ukrainian government are both equal in all these ways. I am in no way a Russian apologist. I don't believe they have any right to be in Crimea. I don't reference Russian media. Ever. For the most part I stopped paying attention to it long before Maidan. My point is that many folks around here are swinging from the nuts of the NEW Ukrainian government when the reality is they are not any better than what was there before. Nor will they be, in my opinion.

Lets wait and see what happens after the May elections.

Agreed. But as I said before, expect much of the same. I hope I'm wrong.

Your reference to the right wing nuts that attacked the Russian TV owner is comical.  Let's see how that compares with the Russian "free press". 

On the contrary. Not comical at all. This is the stuff that Ukrainians need to be concerned about with their NEW government.

Yanuckovich cut off the independent TV channels in Ukraine while he was still in power,  Russia cut off the independent TV channels (particularily Channel 5) in Crimea, while he changed all channels to Russian propaganda programming.   Yes, your mother Russia have an outstanding record of 'free press'.   LOL

Again, I'm not an apologist nor supporter of Russian government. I also don't excuse anything Yanukovich has done.

[GQBlues]

LOL.

I'm sure the EU is elated to welcome Ukraine into the union. Ukraine have already started showning the seedlings of a budding democratic nation. Angela Merkel would've been all wet with excitement had she seen this video showcasing the very gentile, democratic manner representatives of the *new* Ukraine handled a TV station exec for showing the Putin Speech after the Crimea referendum election.

Anyone with an extra few minutes to spare is welcome to summarize the video for those who isn't too familiar with the language.

My interpretation is, and certainly open for correction, a group of representative of the new Ukraine met with this silly TV exec to find out why they showed Putin's speech when it was censored blacked out apparently in Ukraine. The meeting was very gracious, the Ukrainian way. Very well mannered especially right at the 4 minute mark of the video.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=mQsk4zf4gsE


Ladies and Gents, let us please welcome the new member of the European Union.

 


Too bad the *power went out accidentally* and we aren't able to witness the event past the 6 minute mark. Ukrainians must be phocking excited long with Angela.

The dude ought to immigrate to the US and get himself coverage under Obamacre so his *pre-existing condition* can be looked at and cared for.

[lordtiberius]

Not an apologist for the Russian government . . . if you like your plan

[JayH]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RK85eLQJKYk#t=0



Ukraines Deadly Nightshade troops   

A lighter topic in a deadly serious thread.

[BillyB]

If Ukraine wants true change, they need to dismiss all politicians that were in power before the revolution. I'm sure there were some nice guys in there but no favorites should remain. As a collective group, the Ukrainian government failed their country. Nobody had the guts to stand up to the corruption that happened in all parties, not just Yanukovych's. Hopefully Ukrainians will be able to find a man similar to the man in the videos below. He is the man outside of the USSR that's most responsible for their demise. He is a man that's so respected by our enemies, that some of their leaders attended his funeral. Too bad he's not leading this country right now.


JayH, you're into patriotic themes right now. You'd probably like the videos.

[2tallbill]

If some other lunatic, like a Ted Cruz, would be US President.

Ted Cruz is a mainstream conservative. You seem to consider people
slightly to the right of your fringe far left wing to be lunatics. Ted Cruz
myself or most conservatives have no desire for war with Russia. My
son is now in the reserves (he has been to both Iraq and Afghanistan
as an Naval Aviator)

Ted Cruz is my first choice for president. Last time around my first
choice was Herman Cain. I chose them because each of them have
the ability to articulate the message of conservatism. Fiscal sanity,
less government intrusion into our lives and more liberty.

Udachi !


Bill

[JayH]

If Ukraine wants true change, they need to dismiss all politicians that were in power before the revolution. I'm sure there were some nice guys in there but no favorites should remain. As a collective group, the Ukrainian government failed their country. Nobody had the guts to stand up to the corruption that happened in all parties, not just Yanukovych's. Hopefully Ukrainians will be able to find a man similar to the man in the videos below. He is the man outside of the USSR that's most responsible for their demise. He is a man that's so respected by our enemies, that some of their leaders attended his funeral. Too bad he's not leading this country right now.

One of the things that really bothers me on forums is how out of touch some guys are with this current situation.  I highlighted my point of exception above--- over 100 have died and thousands injured at Maidan  doing exactly what you say no one had the guts to do-standing up to corruption.
Words get parodied that are quite wrong-- you( and others) keep repeating them. This government is quite different- a different emphasis altogether-look at the initiatives they have taken-- and stop harping back to previous eras-albeit not long ago. The steps to end corruption are being taken- people called to order for sins-- and it will be an accelerating trend once the election has taken place.
A major reason that made Putin move now-- and is still aspiring to control Ukraine is that very corruption trail will lead back to Moscow-and him. that is not something he personally wants exposed and is prepared to do anything to prevent that.
Above all else-- get a handle on today's Ukraine and how so much has changed-- and how quickly it has changed.It has turned into a major gamble for a decent future that Ukraine has made-- and they should be allowed to get there-- and not run over by a crazy dictator in Putin.The west must help Ukraine and its very decent people/.

[BillyB]

One of the things that really bothers me on forums is how out of touch some guys are with this current situation.  I highlighted my point of exception above--- over 100 have died and thousands injured at Maidan  doing exactly what you say no one had the guts to do-standing up to corruption.

Jay, I was talking about the Ukrainian government when referring to not having guts, not it's people.

This government is quite different-

If different is good, you should be advocating getting rid of the whole lot including past politicians. There are people who want Yulia Tymoshenko back in power. She is a favorite of West Ukrainians but her reputation is tarnished and there's no way she will be a uniter of a divided Ukraine.

A major reason that made Putin move now-- and is still aspiring to control Ukraine is that very corruption trail will lead back to Moscow-and him. that is not something he personally wants exposed and is prepared to do anything to prevent that.

Putin just annexed Crimea and you think he's worried about getting exposed for corruption and hurting his reputation? Exposing Putin's corruption isn't going to hurt his reputation anymore than where it's at now.

[justme100]

Why hasn't he invaded already?  Time is not on his side.

I have to disagree with you. Time is on his side now and I;m sure you know what Adversa tactics is Kiev clowns are doing now everyhting instead of Putin, each their next action, law and speech give Russia even more supporters in the Southern Ukraine while prorussian activists there elaborate the schemes of next moves.
Meanwhile Russia included Kharkiv, Lugansk and Donetsk in its weather forecast already on the 18 of March.

[whynotme]

Dear russian haters, can you stop your tantrum, please. Putin didn't send russian troops into Crimea. It was made by Alexander Suvorov in 1778, and its are still here since that   

But in my opinion the person who opens the thread with such title must be baned for life at normal forum.
Do you want to make war?
Be sure first the American army may fight without good toilet paper supply 

[jone]

Dear Whynotme,

I certainly do not hate Russia.  I have a great love for the people of Russia.  But as someone you have conversed pleasantly with for over a year, and who enjoys your company very much, and that of your soon to be husband, I cannot quite understand the bad feelings you always seem to display towards Americans when you post.

We welcome you with open arms.  The Americans that you have met have been very nice to you and that big galoot you call a fiancee.  I would hope that you remember these things when you think that we don't care for Russian people.

[Gator]

whynotme and justme100,

There will not be a military war between Russia and Europe/America.  Some say there will be an economic war (ever increasing sanctions and trade barriers).  I doubt it will become very serious because there are strong disincentives on both sides against escalating the sanctions to an all-out war.

Impact on Russia - If a trade war, Russia will lose and lose big.   Russian economy is only 2.8% of global GDP, so it is not in a position to dictate (other than energy exports to Europe).  The curtailment of energy exports to Europe would  harm the Russian economy far more than the European economy.    And over the long term, Europe would find other suppliers/sources of energy such that Russia would lose these important export markets forever.

Impact on Europe - The West will lose too in an all-out trade war.  The European economy is recovering, and rising energy costs could make the recovery stall.   This would continue for years until Europe developed reasonable new sources.  I also understand that Germany businesses have made large investments in the Russian economy and they are lobbying Merkel not to do anything rash. 

So disincentives on both sides will keep the trade sanctions from becoming unreasonable.  Although Putin is not a reasonable man, he surely realizes that Russia would suffer far more.  Europe could survive a large trade war, yet could Putin survive?   

In these times the most intelligent indicator is that made by the stock markets.  Stock market prices reflect expectations for the near future.  So far, the Western stock markets have not been seriously affected, and even the initial downturn in the Russian markets has slackened. 

I agree with one stock market guru forecast:  this will end "... with a slap on the wrist for Russia and for the global economy to keep humming along at a decent clip." 

Russia keeps Crimea but has harmed itself over the long term as Europe further reduces its dependence (now 30%) on Russian sources of energy.   Was Crimea worth it?

And now Ukraine, if it can reduce corruption, could easily become over 10-20 years a strong Western ally at Russia's borders.  Was Crimea worth it?

[whynotme]

Dear Whynotme,

I certainly do not hate Russia.  I have a great love for the people of Russia.  But as someone you have conversed pleasantly with for over a year, and who enjoys your company very much, and that of your soon to be husband, I cannot quite understand the bad feelings you always seem to display towards Americans when you post.

We welcome you with open arms.  The Americans that you have met have been very nice to you and that big galoot you call a fiancee.  I would hope that you remember these things when you think that we don't care for Russian people.

Dear Jone,
Give me a favour and stop taking care about my private life, please...
And stop being more hypocrite talking about a great love for the people of Russia.
And yes, I have a very bad memmory - I remember all 

[whynotme]

whynotme and justme100,

and blah-blah-blah...

Homegrown analysts make me laugh only 

[jone]

Dear Jone,
Give me a favour and stop taking care about my private life, please...
And stop being more hypocrite talking about a great love for the people of Russia.
And yes, I have a very bad memmory - I remember all 

You do me a disservice.  Don't turn this around.  I am not a hypocrite.  And what memories are you talking about that you 'remember all'?

[BillyB]

  Europe could survive a large trade war, yet could Putin survive?   

Putin has enough money to last many lifetimes. Russia will suffer in a economic war but Putin will always live good. He has also achieved the pinnacle of power in Russia but that is not enough to have his name survive in the history books for many generations to come. He needs to do more.

[whynotme]

You do me a disservice.  Don't turn this around.  I am not a hypocrite.  And what memories are you talking about that you 'remember all'?

Можно мне не отвечать?  Лучше отделять мух от котлет, а обсуждение личной жизни от мировых проблем.

May I not answer? Better separate flies from cutlets and privacy life discussion from global problems.

[whynotme]

Никогда не воюйте с русскими 1988 г. Never make war with Russians 1988


let me not to translate from Russian here...imagine u are reading comics 

[SANDRO43]

Whynotme, it would be a courtesy to all non-Russian speakers/readers if you could use English in your posts .

[GQBlues]

Aww Shucks!

Are Catalonia and Scotland due for some serious economic sanctioning too, or even Venice once they get this referendum official? What if Quebec succeeds with theirs?

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/03/15/more-sovereignty-votes-sunday-referendum-may-see-venice-elect-to-secede-from-italy/