What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[Daveman]

Brother-in-law (along with, I would surmise, every other fighting aged male in Ukraine) received a notice to prepare for recall and deployment.  If I understood this correctly, this is preparation only at this point rather than mobilization.  He is now on what would be like a stand-by status with orders to report within two hours of further notification.

Anyone know more about this recall?  Hopefully only precautionary.

[Dewed]

Putin/Russia would never make it public. "ouch that hurt" to anything short of a nuke in my opinion. He's gotta keep up the appearance of being invincible for any of his possible plans to work.

Meanwhile the states apparently take the opposite but equally old school approach.. speak softly and carry a big stick,

Daveman.. that is concerning, but I'm glad they are taking preparatory steps,   Paul Revere rides the postal service...

[JayH]

Brother-in-law (along with, I would surmise, every other fighting aged male in Ukraine) received a notice to prepare for recall and deployment.  If I understood this correctly, this is preparation only at this point rather than mobilization.  He is now on what would be like a stand-by status with orders to report within two hours of further notification.

Anyone know more about this recall?  Hopefully only precautionary.

Every eligible male is on at least that that basis-so yes it is only preparation at this time. The army is not on full mobilisation at this stage--but is in full on preparation as they are trying to get organised.
Surveys are showing very high % prepared to fight now-- and only 13% saying they would not fight.That is is a staggering change in less than a month and shows how much has changed in this time.
Let us all hope this is as far as it goes .
Putin still has his invasion force at the ready-- so this crisis is a long way from over.

[whynotme]

Did you really write this?

Explane me, please, how calls for war are corresponded to democratic values? You may do that on this theard name example.

[noelscot]

The U.S. House Intelligence Chairman, Mike Rogers, offered that America should provide communications technology and small arms to Ukraine.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/house-intelligence-chairman-calls-sending-arms-ukraine-n59826

So it looks like the extent of U.S. involvement will be economic warfare and arming and funding Ukraine.

NATO will inevitably expand (more quickly than planned, that is) as a result of Russia's political decisions.

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/discussions/interviews/nato-is-back

[ML]

Brother-in-law (along with, I would surmise, every other fighting aged male in Ukraine) received a notice to prepare for recall and deployment.  If I understood this correctly, this is preparation only at this point rather than mobilization.  He is now on what would be like a stand-by status with orders to report within two hours of further notification.

Anyone know more about this recall?  Hopefully only precautionary.

Dave, it goes farther than that in some areas.

Ochka has family and friends who have already been called up to active duty.  These are young men who completed equivalent of ROTC in Ukraine.

Also, she has gone past 'military signup place' in small town where her parents live, and has witnessed long lines of men who are wanting to volunteer.

She tried to get into a nursing training program; but was told she was too old (mid 40s) . . . at least for the current situation !!!!

[BillyB]

Ochka has family and friends who have already been called up to active duty.  These are young men who completed equivalent of ROTC in Ukraine.

Also, she has gone past 'military signup place' in small town where her parents live, and has witnessed long lines of men who are wanting to volunteer.

What will the Ukrainian government give those men for their training? Pitchforks? Ukraine is short on munitions for their regular army and even if they enlist men for an larger army, they will not become professional soldiers overnight when they graduate from training. Tell Ochka to keep tabs on whether or not her family and friends get adequate equipment for training.


A few years ago members of our government and the Ukrainian government made a deal to get rid of a sizable amount of Ukraine's munitions according to the article below.


http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573557/Flashback-Senator-Obama-pushed-destruction-15-000-TONS-ammunition-400-000-small-arms-1-000-anti-aircraft-missiles-Ukraine.html

[JayH]

Good link BB. I also adds to more reasons why the US should feel obligated to assist Ukraine  in every way now.
Ukraine was and is trying to be a good world citizen in giving up nuclear weapons-- the US signed a treaty on that issue--now we see vast quatities of weapons and ammunition that could have found it's way into anti-world activities given up-- and right now used in the defence of Ukraine.
For me-- it is all the more reason that the USA must get involved now in this Ukrainian crisis.

Quote from the linked story--

"But most of the ammunition stockpiles – crucial for keeping a standing army battle-ready – were destroyed"

"The United Nations had already identified some 7 million small arms and light weapons, and 2 million tons of conventional ammunition, warehoused in more than 80 weapons depots spread across the country.
Many of the artillery shells shown in photographs from Donetsk, multiple weapons experts told MailOnline, would be the same types of ammunition required to repel advancing Russian divisions as they advanced to the west, had they not been destroyed."


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2573557/Flashback-Senator-Obama-pushed-destruction-15-000-TONS-ammunition-400-000-small-arms-1-000-anti-aircraft-missiles-Ukraine.html#ixzz2wvuycbg8

[Larry1]

Good link BB. I also adds to more reasons why the US should feel obligated to assist Ukraine  in every way now.
Ukraine was and is trying to be a good world citizen in giving up nuclear weapons-- the US signed a treaty on that issue--now we see vast quatities of weapons and ammunition that could have found it's way into anti-world activities given up-- and right now used in the defence of Ukraine.
For me-- it is all the more reason that the USA must get involved now in this Ukrainian crisis.

Unfortunately, that puts me in mind of this line in the movie "Animal House":

[Gator]

So Ukrainians want to fight.  Bravo!

These are school teachers, shop clerks, bank employees, etc.  They have had very little military training.  They may or may not have weapons.  They have little armor, and even less airpower.

Yet they have courage and want to stand up to trained, regular Russian troops with air supremacy and innumerable heavy tanks. 

These brave Ukrainians are merely meat for sausage.

[JayH]

So Ukrainians want to fight.  Bravo!

Yet they have courage and want to stand up to trained, regular Russian troops with air supremacy and innumerable heavy tanks. 

These brave Ukrainians are merely meat for sausage.

The Chechens  made a fair show of humiliating that "mighty" Russian military machine with far less resources than Ukraine has. Initially at least-the Russians lost a lot of equipment and men before decimating everything in their path.The lesson they learnt there is likely to be a precedent on how they would approach any invasion of mainland Ukraine-- this will not be a roll in and change the signs on the buildings invasion-- this will be a decimate anything in their path type invasion with the subsequent loss of life of men,women,children who happen to be in the way.
Ukraine will resist any further intrusion-- and from there it will not be so easy to control.
What can prevent that is full on military backing of the west-- as all bullies are cowards -Putin will not take on a  battle that he knows he will lose .
Why wait to see what he does--pre-empt it and give Ukraine the support now to defend itself-that is what will prevent more loss of life.

[fathertime]

I remain convinced that the Russians are not interested in a large war...they NEVER were...  I believe they have already achieved what they wanted to.  If the Ukrainians were to now engage the Russians in Crimea then there could be a bloodbath...but I don't see that happening either.  It is probably time to wind down the hostilities and allow both countries to move on, in which case EVERYBODY WINS.


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

 
FT, in all seriousness I'd be careful believing that. Hell, I was screaming atop of my lungs to whomever wanted to listen that Putin was NOT going to invade Crimea. I was convinced that would never happen. So did many others.
 
That was one hell of a bracket buster.

Hehe, well yes you were incorrect regarding the Russians invading Crimea, I don't know what your reasoning was.  From my perspective, the Russians capturing Crimea and having total control over the ports is/was the objective.  There is no need for them to move into other parts of Ukraine.  I don't see them risking a bloody mess in order to obtain a large population that doesn't really want them there. 


The Russians will pay a price, but in the long run, assuming they keep Crimea I think they will weather the storm fine.  Meanwhile Ukraine can take the rest of their peoples in whatever direction they want, so no need for massive bloodshed, IMO.  THey can all push a little reset button and move on and they all end up winning.  (Or at least not losing!)
Fathertime! 

[JayH]

FT-- your are underestimating Putins intent here. There is little doubt in my mind( and most informed observers!!) that it at the very least was and maybe still is--Putins intent was/is to roll  into mainland Ukraine after creating the excuse via the contrived "provocation"  that Moscow has been attempting to create .
It has been an extreme full on attempt to fool the Russian public into supporting Putins aspirations of a new Soviet Union.Why would he risk so much in igniting the concerns from previous era's-- when Russians are more interested in being part of the world-- and not the pariahs they are now going to be?

Even if your assertion is right-- then there would still be little to lose by supporting Ukraine in maintaining it's territory.The upside is that it would make it 100% clear to Putin that interfering and invading other countries will not be
tolerated.

Nato warns of Russian army build-up on Ukraine border
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26704205

[Faux Pas]

FT, how exactly is Ukraine winning?

[Dewed]

From here looks like they are right up to the line saying "BRING IT!" in Russian of course.

One of my favorite teachers called this tactic  "Invitation by provocation"  Despite Putin's master plan, he still needs to justify it somewhat plausibly to the Russian public..

[Larry1]

  Despite Putin's master plan, he still needs to justify it somewhat plausibly to the Russian public..

Haven't you been reading the Russians' posts here. There is NOTHING Putin could do that most of them would not support.  They believe completely everything their regime spouts. I think they would cheer Tsar Vladimir I if he launched nukes.

[fathertime]

FT, how exactly is Ukraine winning?

With Russia being content, I feel Ukraine wins because they can perhaps unite what remains of their disheveled country (the far greater part) and move towards the western way, if this is what they decide to do.

FT-- your are underestimating Putins intent here. There is little doubt in my mind( and most informed observers!!) that it at the very least was and maybe still is--Putins intent was/is to roll  into mainland Ukraine after creating the excuse via the contrived "provocation"  that Moscow has been attempting to create .
It has been an extreme full on attempt to fool the Russian public into supporting Putins aspirations of a new Soviet Union.Why would he risk so much in igniting the concerns from previous era's-- when Russians are more interested in being part of the world-- and not the pariahs they are now going to be?

[/size][size=78%] [/size]
I have to disagree and believe there are plenty of other voices that agree that Russia has taken what it wants and never had the intention of going further.  I don’t believe they EVER wanted provocation with Ukraine, they did want this little part and have gotten it without much loss of life.  In my opinion, the best move for both sides is to move on, and for outside forces to stay the Christ out, especially the USA.

From here looks like they are right up to the line saying "BRING IT!" in Russian of course.

One of my favorite teachers called this tactic  "Invitation by provocation"  Despite Putin's master plan, he still needs to justify it somewhat plausibly to the Russian public..

[/size]

Hey Dewed!  My impression is the Russians need to bring their troops over as a show they are willing to fight if need be.  I am under the impression that it is a deterrent to anyone else who considered meddling, as they can see it will not be without a big fight.  If that reasoning stands up, there will be no large invasion, it is a defensive move since they have already taken the territory they wanted.




Of course everything I've said would be easily proved wrong if Russia started an invasion of Ukraine...I just don't see that happening, as there isn't enough of a reason to want a country that would be rebelling against their 'master'...they are better off without the hassle.   


Fathertime! 

[southernX]

FT ,

russias movements of troops and there buildup along the entire east border with ukraine is going to be one of two things,

it could be the defensive posturing , but in reality , if that was so it is far more likely to be more concentrated in the south east, closer to crimea,

no other civilised country is going to invade russia in the north east, kharkiv has masses of rusky troops just 50 km away , over the border in belgorod , this isnt defence it is more likely waiting in the wings for the right trip /spark to move across into ukraine to ''SAVE '' the ethnc russians there , who by and large probably dont want it

with so much corruption abound within regional govs, it is difficult to make a proper reading of which way this will go , but just one major incident within an s/east oblast will very probably set the russian army westwards,
i have no doubt  putin is mercilessly calculating , he has no better time than now or the very near future to make this move , if he chooses to ,

if he waits, he might lose the momentum/moment
ukraine will hold elctions and new gov will have unquestioned legitimacy, , now he can posture the gov doesnt , regardless of fact below

http://khpg.org.ua/en/index.php?id=1395358623

ukraine will if it recovers economicaly , boost its defences , have no doubt about that , it may join NATO ,
 
now it is vulnerable , it has no gaurantee of military help with troops etc from any third party, now or the very near future is putins moment when ukraine is at its most vulnerable , and parts of moldova, right across to take it all back as far as he can push ,
 
and dont forget putin still has yanukovich , as his puppet to restore ''legitimalty if he wishes to use him, remember yano wrote to the duma asking for their help to retake his position /country , ? yanu spent time after he left kiev in crimea, what hand did he have in that play ??   how affiliated is he with the new prime minister aksanov [goblin ] in crimea, ??
did they meet and plan in crimea ??  both have east mafia bases /connections ?

the EU/US have indicated their lack of will to get deeply involved and are prepared to sacrifice ukraine to save their economys, putin know this only too well
 ,
he has waited to get total control of crimea, all ukraine bases shut down ,forces removed , weapons in his control ,  no small resistance internally within crimea to cause any issues ,

all the chess pieces are in place to make the move, now /soon imho
question is will putin sieze his oppurtunity ? will he use yanukovich to front it when he does and where will it start ?

SX

[ML]

I have to disagree and believe there are plenty of other voices that agree that Russia has taken what it wants and never had the intention of going further.

None  of us, including me, know for sure anything about this.

But I believe you are wrong because:

1) Russia will want  full land access to Crimea, and long before they can complete a bridge across to Kerch.  This means they will want (at least) a large strip of land from Mariupol to Kherson.

2) Russia will want full land access to the Russian speakers in Transinista, which means controlling the area all the way to Odesa and beyond.

3) Probably the best (potential) area from an economic viewpoint is the eastern third of Ukraine.  This is where the heavy industry potential is, as well as the oil and shale gas deposits.  It is not imaginable that the Russian leaders would not want this.

[fathertime]

None  of us, including me, know for sure anything about this.

But I believe you are wrong because:

1) Russia will want  full land access to Crimea, and long before they can complete a bridge across to Kerch.  This means they will want (at least) a large strip of land from Mariupol to Kherson.

2) Russia will want full land access to the Russian speakers in Transinista, which means controlling the area all the way to Odesa and beyond.

3) Probably the best (potential) area from an economic viewpoint is the eastern third of Ukraine.  This is where the heavy industry potential is, as well as the oil and shale gas deposits.  It is not imaginable that the Russian leaders would not want this.

Hey ML!


Those are good points you make...I'd say the 1st point regarding the strip of land would be the most likely of the 3...BUT my feeling is Russia would have already taken it if they wanted it badly enough...they could have done practically anything those first couple days/weeks...Why would they wait and stage an invasion in different stages when it was all within their grasp outta the gate?...they could have annexed a lot more right away as they did in Crimea...Now if they were to attempt it, it would appear like two separate acquisitions and that would really stir up and turn the sentiment even more against them, and I think the world would react with more resolve and disincentives.   To me, a secondary invasion makes little sense.  It shouldn't be too long before we see which direction this goes. 

FT ,

 

 

no other civilised country is going to invade russia in the north east, kharkiv has masses of rusky troops just 50 km away , over the border in belgorod , this isnt defence it is more likely waiting in the wings for the right trip /spark to move across into ukraine to ''SAVE '' the ethnc russians there , who by and large probably dont want it
 
 
 ,
he has waited to get total control of crimea, all ukraine bases shut down ,forces removed , weapons in his control ,  no small resistance internally within crimea to cause any issues ,
 

SX

interesting points SX..


Fathertime! 

[Dewed]

Haven't you been reading the Russians' posts here. There is NOTHING Putin could do that most of them would not support.  They believe completely everything their regime spouts. I think they would cheer Tsar Vladimir I if he launched nukes.

well I did say somewhat plausibly, but yes I agree with your assessment.. Russian Kool-Aid must be extremely tasty

[southernX]

FT,
imho ,ML is spot on in his assumptions , id agree with them 100%

the only logical reason i can offer why vladimir has waited is below

1 he wanted to get total control of crimea , with no oppositon forces contained within that peninsula

2 he can then bulk it up with his next wave of forces there and  readying all along the borders under the guise of military exercises for russia , while he waits to assess the response from ukraine and the EU/US/NATO

weak response will give him the green light to move forward again , all he needs is the spark of a pretext to step in on humanitarian grounds and link up the chess pieces across his board
if he has yanukovich to front that or re install , even better

game over for any oppostion from the west etc etc


look at the worst result for him, the west will sanction him, etc , they have done that ,all have stated they wont put troops on the ground , so he will win pretty quickly in a ground assault ,  he is prepared to suffer the worst as he is gambling it wont be that bad and wont last long , as all other players need russia to grow their  economys too ,

if he is going to do it , he wont wait too long imho , time is of the essence or ukraine will recover some sense of what is happening  and what to do with western help to prevent it
question still is if he will and when ?
SX

[die_cast]

Yet they have courage and want to stand up to trained, regular Russian troops with air supremacy and innumerable heavy tanks. 

Most Eastern-Europeans share same kind of stupidity. With pitchforks against tanks, you know. 

The Chechens  made a fair show of humiliating that "mighty" Russian military machine with far less resources than Ukraine has.

So you really think Ukranians can be as good as Chechens?  No, Jay, they can not. Chechens have militants, that's a part of their culture, their boys are raised to be ready to fight, Ukrainian boys are not, same as Russian.
There is no sense to compare Ukraine with Chechnya, they are too different.

Haven't you been reading the Russians' posts here. There is NOTHING Putin could do that most of them would not support.  They believe completely everything their regime spouts.

Even if you read any Russian posts anywhere, there are things you don't get. Also many readers have a tendency to assume much more from posts they are reading than those posts are saying.
There are things our President could do that people would not support, like if he would decide to give Kuriles to Japan...  And that Russians support Putin doesn't mean they (we) believe him or our goverment, Russians don't believe anybody, especially Russians don't believe officials. Russians support Putin's foreign policy because he is defending Russian interests, he is not an alien here, he is Russian too - he sees Russian interests in the world as most Russians see them. If he is doing it legitimately or not, most people don't care. Much more important if they think he is doing right things for Russia or not.

Russian Kool-Aid must be extremely tasty

You, guys, overrate media's importance and don't understand Russian mentality. And that fact you can't understand us doesn't mean that we are idiots.

[Anotherkiwi]

Most Eastern-Europeans share same kind of stupidity. With pitchforks against tanks, you know. 


So you really think Ukranians can be as good as Chechens?  No, Jay, they can not. Chechens have militants, that's a part of their culture, their boys are raised to be ready to fight, Ukrainian boys are not, same as Russian.
There is no sense to compare Ukraine with Chechnya, they are too different.

I don't have a problem with these responses, although I think the Ukrainians would prefer "patriotism" to "stupidity" (even though the end result may be the same).

Even if you read any Russian posts anywhere, there are things you don't get. Also many readers have a tendency to assume much more from posts they are reading than those posts are saying.
There are things our President could do that people would not support, like if he would decide to give Kuriles to Japan...  And that Russians support Putin doesn't mean they (we) believe him or our goverment, Russians don't believe anybody, especially Russians don't believe officials. Russians support Putin's foreign policy because he is defending Russian interests, he is not an alien here, he is Russian too - he sees Russian interests in the world as most Russians see them.

This is where I'm really struggling.    Why do you consider it in Russia's interests to invade another country, even one which, 25 years ago, was part of the same country that you call home?  What possible interest can Russia have in the internal affairs of another country?  (I'm allowed to ask these questions because my country, unlike others, has never invaded anybody else!).  One of the things which Putin was allegedly protecting was the right of ethnic Russians in Ukraine to live their lives in peace, not to be harassed or attacked just because they're Russian, and so on.  It sounds so admirable, but how come nobody in Russia appears to have seen the interviews with the leaders of these groups in various places who swear that no such attacks have EVER occurred?

Some of the hyperbole which I've seen reported, such as Ukrainians drinking the blood of dead Russian babies, surely can't be believed by anybody with more than two brain cells.

If he is doing it legitimately or not, most people don't care. Much more important if they think he is doing right things for Russia or not.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry.  This has to be one of the saddest things I've seen written here.

You, guys, overrate media's importance and don't understand Russian mentality. And that fact you can't understand us doesn't mean that we are idiots.

Nobody is saying that you're an idiot.  Unfortunately, it appears that a lot of your fellow citizens ARE idiots, because they're believing everything that they read or see in the Russian media (despite your claim that media's importance is over-rated).  Ranetka posted this earlier:

By the way, I do not even read Russian news on the subject - what for? I got plenty of info from people on the ground. The only news I watch is BBC and Al Jazeera.

I, too, have been watching the coverage from those outlets.  I've seen their reporters having warning shots fired towards them by Russian troops.  Please don't insult my intelligence by trying to fob this off as being blank rounds or something similar.  Whatever Putin may have been dishing out in his statements, a bloodless welcome of his invasion force is NOT the truth.

And now those Crimeans who don't want to be part of the new order are being told that they can relocate to "mainland" Ukraine without any problem!  How would you feel if you were told that you have to leave the city (possibly even the same house) where you have spent your whole life, and go and live several hundred kilometres away in a place where you may not know anybody and where you can't get a job - all this after having had all your savings effectively stolen because there is no access to banks to get your money.

I thought Wayne put it very nicely:

This is the latest from Crimea:
 
Russia has increased the cost of natural gas for Ukraine.
Ukraine has shut down electric to Crimea.
In Sevastopol area, cell phones are not working. Ukrainian companies control this.
Most internet service is shut off in Crimea. Again, Ukrainian companies.
Still, the only flights from Simferopol Airport are to and from Moscow.
Ukraine stopped allowing the flights over their air space, so the flights take much longer.
Tickets are almost impossible to buy.
No food in the stores.
Banks closed. No access to your money.
Weather is nice.

And I haven't even mentioned the homes being attacked...