What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[whynotme]

translation:
It is hard to talk with deafs, show the truth to blinds and  argue with idiots.

Everything is simple and clear for fools only. Don't rush to conclusions, dear Putin's policy experts 

Btw, people in Strelkovyi (Kherson region) made desicion without referendum. they just drag the boundary pillars with Ukrainian checkpoint in the outskirts of the village to be within Russian Federation.

[die_cast]

I don't have a problem with these responses, although I think the Ukrainians would prefer "patriotism" to "stupidity" (even though the end result may be the same).

This is stupid patriotism, if you have nothing and another person has a gun and body armour, and you choose to fight with him, the risk you will be killed and will not defend your home is extremely high - so you will lose everything - you will lose your home and your life too. Fighting just for the sake of fighting has no sense, fighting only has a sense if you have a chance to win.

Why do you consider it in Russia's interests to invade another country, even one which, 25 years ago, was part of the same country that you call home?  What possible interest can Russia have in the internal affairs of another country?

All that is going on actually not about Ukraine at all.

One of the things which Putin was allegedly protecting was the right of ethnic Russians in Ukraine to live their lives in peace, not to be harassed or attacked just because they're Russian, and so on.

This is just a formal reason, not a real reason. I thought you understand it.

Some of the hyperbole which I've seen reported, such as Ukrainians drinking the blood of dead Russian babies, surely can't be believed by anybody with more than two brain cells.

Do you really think that somebody believe in such horror tales?

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. 

I would recommend you just accept it, because you can't change it. 

Unfortunately, it appears that a lot of your fellow citizens ARE idiots,

Every country and every nation has it's own idiots. It's ok, you know. 

they're believing everything that they read or see in the Russian media

What makes you think that people do believe everything? Even more, what makes you think we all are reading or watching our media? Do you really think that people form their opinions only this way?

And now those Crimeans who don't want to be part of the new order are being told that they can relocate to "mainland" Ukraine without any problem!  How would you feel if you were told that you have to leave the city (possibly even the same house) where you have spent your whole life, and go and live several hundred kilometres away in a place where you may not know anybody and where you can't get a job - all this after having had all your savings effectively stolen because there is no access to banks to get your money.

Just recently Russians in Crimea could hear the same: if you don't like Ukraine - go to Russia! Abandon everything and go away. "Чемодан - вокзал - Россия" "Suitcase - Station - Russia", and so they did. They just took the station with them. 

I thought Wayne put it very nicely:
And I haven't even mentioned the homes being attacked...

This is a part of process, it's temporal changes. I guess nobody thought it's going to be easy.

[Faux Pas]

Even more, what makes you think we all are reading or watching our media? Do you really think that people form their opinions only this way?

So where is it you get your information that formulates your opinion?

[noelscot]

So Ukrainians want to fight.  Bravo!

[...]

These brave Ukrainians are merely meat for sausage.

Russia would most certainly win the conventional war, but if it morphs to an occupation force (in the mainland), the US could nurture guerrilla tactics not unlike what was seen in the Iraq theatre. IEDs, bombings, etc. It's easy to make the Levada polls in favor of these actions reverse , especially when Ukrainians have everything to fight for and the average Russian soldier is an unmotivated conscript.

[fathertime]

FT,
imho ,ML is spot on in his assumptions , id agree with them 100%

the only logical reason i can offer why vladimir has waited is below

1 he wanted to get total control of crimea , with no oppositon forces contained within that peninsula

2 he can then bulk it up with his next wave of forces there and  readying all along the borders under the guise of military exercises for russia , while he waits to assess the response from ukraine and the EU/US/NATO

weak response will give him the green light to move forward again , all he needs is the spark of a pretext to step in on humanitarian grounds and link up the chess pieces across his board
if he has yanukovich to front that or re install , even better

game over for any oppostion from the west etc etc


look at the worst result for him, the west will sanction him, etc , they have done that ,all have stated they wont put troops on the ground , so he will win pretty quickly in a ground assault ,  he is prepared to suffer the worst as he is gambling it wont be that bad and wont last long , as all other players need russia to grow their  economys too ,

if he is going to do it , he wont wait too long imho , time is of the essence or ukraine will recover some sense of what is happening  and what to do with western help to prevent it
question still is if he will and when ?
SX

 Hey SX!
I understand your logic and of course it does make sense, although from my thinking the biggest factor remains that Russia could have easily took additional land and chose not to.  It just doesn’t make sense to me that they would now do it later.   If I were to continue to speculate (which I am), I’d say the troop buildup is a measure to allow the west to save face.  The west can now say..’Look Russia was about to invade further’…’but our tough sanctions have indeed worked and given Russia pause’….meanwhile Russia already has the area they wanted.
Now I’m really going to go out on a limb with this, but I’ll say it anyway just to float another viable theory.    I can see the strategy in the west wanting for the Ukrainians to fight…more so than the Ukrainians themselves…so it is the West’s job to ‘educate’ the Ukrainians on how they have been wronged so terribly and foment them to the point of fighting.   I think it is unnecessary to do this, because it should all end right now before it gets too bloody and it ruins the win-win aspect of things.   
Fathertime! 

[SANDRO43]

Fighting just for the sake of fighting has no sense, fighting only has a sense if you have a chance to win.

Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops did not share your opinion - and died - when the Germans invaded the USSR in 1941 .

[Muzh]

Hehe, well yes you were incorrect regarding the Russians invading Crimea, I don't know what your reasoning was.  From my perspective, the Russians capturing Crimea and having total control over the ports is/was the objective.  There is no need for them to move into other parts of Ukraine.  I don't see them risking a bloody mess in order to obtain a large population that doesn't really want them there. 

The Russians will pay a price, but in the long run, assuming they keep Crimea I think they will weather the storm fine.  Meanwhile Ukraine can take the rest of their peoples in whatever direction they want, so no need for massive bloodshed, IMO.  THey can all push a little reset button and move on and they all end up winning.  (Or at least not losing!)
Fathertime!

I don't know if you are either dumb, a provocateur or just plain angry. You posted this just above this one:
 

I remain convinced that the Russians are not interested in a large war...they NEVER were...  I believe they have already achieved what they wanted to.  If the Ukrainians were to now engage the Russians in Crimea then there could be a bloodbath...but I don't see that happening either.  It is probably time to wind down the hostilities and allow both countries to move on, in which case EVERYBODY WINS.

Fathertime!

If Putin sees an opening somewhere in eastern Ukraine, he will send in the tanks and the army. That much everyone knows, NOW. There is a very high risk of world war if he does this.
 
Putin has shown his cards, they are on the table. Please show some decency and don't take this as a platform for your passive-aggressive behavior.

[Gator]

Now I’m really going to go out on a limb with this, but I’ll say it anyway just to float another viable theory.    I can see the strategy in the west wanting for the Ukrainians to fight…more so than the Ukrainians themselves…

Yes, you went out on a limb, and the limb just broke.  Why would the West want Ukraine to fight?  Russia would crush Ukraine quickly and take over the entire country. 

Look at the map.  With major forces massed both on Ukraine's eastern border and in Crimea, the Russian army would encircle Ukraine's army quickly (in the textbook manner the Soviet army defeated the Nazis at Stalingrad).

War would spook Europe, ending the economic recovery now underway in Europe.   America gains nothing.   

Instead of fighting, why not help the "new" Ukraine embark on a democratic, pro-western path.  The G7 (G8 less Russia) is now discussing various forms of aid.  If Ukraine's new government can reduce corruption, the country could blossom.  The end result in 10-20 years is a western dynamo on Russia's borders.

That is far better than a war torn basket case.  The question is whether Putin would allow Ukraine to advance far along the western path.    My guess is that Putin would want to take eastern Ukraine.  The only thing dissuading him would be knowing the West would probably hurt him bad economically, far more than the little slap on the wrist of today. 

Who is to say that with the invasion of Crimea the West is not already on a long-term, irreversible path to have less and less to do with Russia?

[Faux Pas]

   I think it is unnecessary to do this, because it should all end right now before it gets too bloody and it ruins the win-win aspect of things.   
Fathertime! 

FT, you still fail to see for Ukraine, it's lose/lose and has been since Putin decided to invade. You are way out on a limb there bruh. There is no win/win for Ukraine. Quite frankly it's debatable if it's a win/win for Russia. Putin isn't amassing troops on the border of Western Ukraine as any type of defensive measure. That can only be interpreted as an offensive posture.

Ukraine is disheveled because of Putin and it's now fractured. Putin did that and it's not up to Ukraine to appease Putin's Russia. Ukraine's only crime as far as Putin was concerned was to kick his booty boy to the curb. In Putin's eyes, this measure on the part of Ukraine made him appear weak in the eyes of his country. A country that he has stolen billions and is on the brink of a collapsing economy. There's been a lot of speculation about why he did this and why now. Putin is giving Russia a boogeyman to turn the attention from him. Occam's razor comes to mind.

[Muzh]

Ukraine's only crime as far as Putin was concerned was to kick his booty boy to the curb. In Putin's eyes, this measure on the part of Ukraine made him appear weak in the eyes of his country. A country that he has stolen billions and is on the brink of a collapsing economy.

Not only that. How dare a country bumpkin, like Ukraine is in the eyes of many Russians, dare do that kind of disrespect to its master.
 
THAT is the real reason why so many Russians are boiling inside.
 
The bottom line is that the little country bumpkin has shown their superior neighbors to the north what is to have the dignity they deserve. As always, they have shown they are no one's serfs.
 
AND it has the Kremlin appartchiks knees shaking.
 
There are many in Moscow and St. Pete looking very intently into what is happening in Kyiv. Why do you think Putler is trying to control what the see?

[BillyB]

War would spook Europe, ending the economic recovery now underway in Europe.   America gains nothing.   

WWI and WWII helped America become a superpower. Arms sales go up and manufacturing of other materials to support a war increases. Buying American is especially important in times of war or with war on the horizon.


As Obama has meetings with the leaders of Eastern European nations, those nations will be interested in buying American made military equipment, not just for security reasons, but to strengthen the bond between us. They will be offering bases on their lands for America troops to be stationed at.


Hopefully one day Russia will be so respected by the nations of the world that they'll ask Russia to park Russian troops on their lands due to the amount of respect and trust they'll have for them.


Russia continues to get their citizens pissed off at NATO and the West. This is supposed to be over, right? Why look for more support?


http://news.yahoo.com/russia-uses-1999-nato-bombing-media-war-over-135638344--sector.html

[Gator]

 
There are many in Moscow and St. Pete looking very intently into what is happening in Kyiv. Why do you think Putler is trying to control what the see?

Not so sure that its "many."  Putin’s popularity has just hit a 3-year high of 72% according to this credible source:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/03/13/we-treat-him-like-hes-mad-but-vladimir-putins-popularity-has-just-hit-a-3-year-high/

The chart included in the above article  shows Putin's popularity for many years. Putin had been as high as 88%, so there is some dissent.

Yet the soft data says Putin has his country's support.  I say that based on the RW posts at RWD plus my Russian wife.  She feels some kinship with Ukrainian people and she is not a fan of Putin.  However, she says Krim was a part of Russia for centuries and should be a part of Russia today.   

[Hammer2722]

  She feels some kinship with Ukrainian people and she is not a fan of Putin.  However, she says Krim was a part of Russia for centuries and should be a part of Russia today.   

So what? Krim was also a part of the Ottoman Empire for many years before that. So I guess Russia should then return Crimea to Turkey??? 

[jone]

I think you all might want to read Mendy on this particular topic that Gator has touched on:  Putin's popularity. 

He gives some very good insights. 

To FT, you talk of a win/win situation.  If Putin walks away with only Crimea, he is removed from office in less than two years.  He has set himself on a course that can only be sustained with the invasion of Eastern Ukraine. 

Here's Mendy:

http://russianreport.wordpress.com/

If Putin doesn't invade, he is left with an extremely Western leaning state which is now bereft of the major voting block that balanced the nation (Crimea).  He also has alienated the entire set of Western powers who now view him as a pariah.   How does that equal a win for him? 

As for the Ukrainians, they will now exist in a constant state of Nationalism, chances are Ukraine will have its borders closed to Russia and will need to arm itself to defend the state.  Couple that with an extremely bitter feeling of being invaded with a substantial amount of land stolen from them (imagine someone taking Hawaii from the US).

This whole adventurism was ill conceived and will be the ultimate down fall of Vladimir Vladimirovich.

[Gator]

So what? Krim was also a part of the Ottoman Empire for many years before that. So I guess Russia should then return Crimea to Turkey??? 

Hammer, I am not saying her position is correct; it simply is her position. 

And I do not subscribe to the  concept of returning America to the native Americans. 

[Muzh]

Hammer, I am not saying her position is correct; it simply is her position. 

And I do not subscribe to the  concept of returning America to the native Americans.

Of course not. We stole it fair and square.

[Faux Pas]

Of course not. We stole it fair and square.

It was their own fault. Their immigration policies were much too liberal 

[GQBlues]

...And I do not subscribe to the  concept of returning America to the native Americans.

Of course not. We stole it fair and square.    

Damn! There's those pesky geese/gander again. Where the heck is my 5-out?

...As of recent legislation it is now a crime to even post anti-government news on internet sites while Rain TV, Echo Radio, Novaya Gazetta and Lenta News are battling new restrictions and forced staff changes....

Take heart Mendy, even in an openly democratic country like the Netherlands amongst others, you go to prison if you spoke ill about your leaders, too. 5 years, I think, in the Netherlands....Shadow can correct me on that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L%C3%A8se-majest%C3%A9

Heck, you get fined Euro 45K in France if you insult your president, LOL. But that's France...what else is new?

[Muzh]

It was their own fault. Their immigration policies were much too liberal 

 
 
 
Classic!!!

[tfcrew]

[lordtiberius]

My question to FT and others who hold his belief is what did he do for his freedom?  Why does he deserve it and not the Venezuelan, the Ukrainian, Arab and  Zimbawan?  What has he done to protect for others? 

The one good argument he hasn't made but Laura Ingraham made in shutting down Paul Wolfowitz is was that we spent $ 2 trillion and under 10,000 Americans dead, thousand more wounded and what do we have to show for it?

We mismanage our relationships with other nations.  But indifference and neutrality always favors the oppressors. Glad to see more people have come around to my view.

[fathertime]

I don't know if you are either dumb, a provocateur or just plain angry. You posted this just above this one:
 
If Putin sees an opening somewhere in eastern Ukraine, he will send in the tanks and the army. That much everyone knows, NOW. There is a very high risk of world war if he does this.
 
Putin has shown his cards, they are on the table. Please show some decency and don't take this as a platform for your passive-aggressive behavior.

 Passive aggressive behavior?  "Dumb, a provocateur or angry"?  It sounds to me like it is becoming ‘label time’ for you yet again.  I, and others have formed different opinions than you, but if that is considered ‘passive aggressive’ behavior then I shall live with that label and you will have to live with reading opinions that drive you to the point of name-calling I guess.


Perhaps you are not capable of exchanging opinions without turning it into ‘label time’ 

Nothing YOU have said (which wasn’t much) has changed my belief that Putin has taken what he wants already…sure if Ukraine was to essentially ‘give’ more than Russia might take it, but I don’t think they intended to make another aggressive move. 

My question to FT and others who hold his belief is what did he do for his freedom?  Why does he deserve it and not the Venezuelan, the Ukrainian, Arab and  Zimbawan?  What has he done to protect for others? 
 

Relevance?   Your question only makes sense to somebody who actually thinks he/she deserves freedom more than another….I don’t think any person born deserves freedom any more than anybody else.  I also don't think the onus of fighting is on this nation, nor do I think it is in the best interests of Ukraine to fight under the circumstances of what has happened.  I don't think very many people on the board agree with your position or mine,  but that doesn't mean much. 
Fathertime!  [size=78%] [/size]

[fathertime]

Yes, you went out on a limb, and the limb just broke.  Why would the West want Ukraine to fight?  Russia would crush Ukraine quickly and take over the entire country. 

Look at the map.  With major forces massed both on Ukraine's eastern border and in Crimea, the Russian army would encircle Ukraine's army quickly (in the textbook manner the Soviet army defeated the Nazis at Stalingrad).

War would spook Europe, ending the economic recovery now underway in Europe.   America gains nothing.   

Instead of fighting, why not help the "new" Ukraine embark on a democratic, pro-western path.  The G7 (G8 less Russia) is now discussing various forms of aid.  If Ukraine's new government can reduce corruption, the country could blossom.  The end result in 10-20 years is a western dynamo on Russia's borders.
 

I stand behind your bolded statement four-square.  IMO that is where the energy should be going.  Ukraine can win and so can Russia and that is best for the world as far as I can see.

[/size]Fathertime! [size=78%][/size][size=78%]   [/size]

[GQBlues]

...The G7 (G8 less Russia) is now discussing various forms of aid.  If Ukraine's new government can reduce corruption, the country could blossom.  The end result in 10-20 years is a western dynamo on Russia's borders....

Speaking of democracy and freedom, the meeting is such a wonderful opportunity for President Obama, and by extension, the free world.

It isn't everyday one can put the faces of people all sitting in the same room one were wire-tapping not too long ago.

[fathertime]

I just read that USA has decided to NOT impose more sanctions if Russia doesn't go any further into Ukraine....Obozo will take some heat but I like that policy, I think it is reasonable. Hopefully Russia leaves it at that as well and the world moves on. 


http://news.yahoo.com/west-russia-signal-line-drawn-ukraine-crisis-112326995--sector.html



Fathertime!