What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[Belvis]

Whatever the case this topic was derailed so I can make it more informative, at least.

Some statistics concerning the takeover of Crimea from Ukranian troops. Alltogether about 22,000 ukrainian military were stationed in Crimea, roughly 5,000 of them are civilians at jobs in army. About 4,000 decided to evacuate from Crimea, some of them will leave the service. The rest will continue the service in the Russian army.
  One of best combat units of Ukranian army was battalion of marines in Feodosia, 600 men. 450 of them decided to stay in Crimea and take oath to Russia, 150 has evacuated to continue service in Ukraine. Among officers there is the following ratio: 1/3 moved out of Crimea, 2/3 stayed.

In the beginning of conflict rear admiral Denis Berezovsky was made head of Ukraine's navy, and next day he  has sworn allegiance to the separatist Crimea region. Now he is  appointed as the new Russian Black Sea Fleet deputy commander.

Couple days ago Russian troops have stormed a Ukrainian Belbek airbase, near Sevastopol,  throwing stun grenades and firing automatic weapons in the air. Photos of battlefield:



A few Ukranian corvets were seized by Crimean self-defence militia:


Main problem for Ukranian military in Crimea was how to come over to Russia side not risking criminal prosecution from Ukraine. So they're waiting storms which happened to be rather peaceful.

The following clip reflects the russian view on the events:

 


   

[jone]

Perhaps Belvis,

You can tell us what happened to the Colonel in charge of the Air Base?  I'm sure he is being held for tea in a Russian brothel, entertained by RussBabes.

You are a real piece of work.

[lordtiberius]

This post is evidence of Russian scum.  Don't worry.  Scum is a transnational phenomena.  We have American scum as well.  Most of them live in DC.

Belvis,  I talk to many Russians just like you everyday on twitter and vk.  Doing no deed, unless ordered by their Kremlin masters, saying no words unless elicited from their Kremlin masters, Thinking no thoughts except those born in minds of mobsters, crooks and thieves.  You ape the words of truthers.  You bring up age old grievances like Kosovo.  You never forgive.  You have no compassion.  You have no sense of perspective, no shame or decency.  Men and (women) like you cannot be reasoned with.  You must be crushed.

My prediction?  By the end of this year, you and your kind will be crushed and it is these meek, lowly, but chaste and stout hearted Ukrainians that will crush you.  You will not have your defensive war with America like you want like Putin wants - instead Putin will get his wish.  Russia's borders will be re-drawn and you and your country will cease to exist.

[Belvis]

You can tell us what happened to the Colonel in charge of the Air Base?  I'm sure he is being held for tea in a Russian brothel, entertained by RussBabes.

Unfortunately, I can't support your fantasy, Russian army regulations do not make provisions for brothels. But this man will be OK and for sure get general rank in Ukranian army soon.

[Belvis]

My prediction?  By the end of this year, you and your kind will be crushed and it is these meek, lowly, but chaste and stout hearted Ukrainians that will crush you.  You will not have your defensive war with America like you want like Putin wants - instead Putin will get his wish.  Russia's borders will be re-drawn and you and your country will cease to exist.

Then you'll be satisfied and your soul get a peace at last. No problem from my side.

[GQBlues]

I just read that USA has decided to NOT impose more sanctions if Russia doesn't go any further into Ukraine....Obozo will take some heat but I like that policy, I think it is reasonable. Hopefully Russia leaves it at that as well and the world moves on...

I do, too. I've always said regarding this silly crisis...

The Kiev coup was both illegitimate and unconstitutional. Crimea is/was an autonomous republic and is entitled to make its own self-determination at any time.

Ukraine wanted to lean towards western influence - they got it. They are now a member of the EU.

Crimea voted to be part of Russia, they got it. They are now under Russian Federation dominion.

The European contingent got what they wanted - no further economic escalation with Russia and a 'new' member to lump into their tax system.

Obama got what he wanted by switching the media focus less on Obamacare. He also (I hope) came to realize what it's really like to do poli-business with our European partners, especially when dealing with Russia.

Win/win for everyone and a very nicely packaged 'exit strategy'.

[lordtiberius]

Except that none of this is rational.  Its all emotion.  If it was rational Putin would not have invaded in the first place.  Putin has lost control of Ukraine and is losing control of Crimea.  He will invade and when he does, will you two patriots make excuses for Putin then?

Its good to see these clowns unmasked.

[Gator]

Whatever the case this topic was derailed so I can make it more informative, at least.

Thanks.  I appreciated it.  Seriously.

  One of best combat units of Ukranian army was battalion of marines in Feodosia, 600 men. 450 of them decided to stay in Crimea and take oath to Russia, 150 has evacuated to continue service in Ukraine.

Interesting.  Effectively  75% voted to stay, surrendering their Ukrainian citizenship and becoming Russian citizens.   Evidently military units are drawn from nearby communities and not from the entire nation. 

Couple days ago Russian troops have stormed a Ukrainian Belbek airbase, near Sevastopol,  throwing stun grenades and firing automatic weapons in the air. .........

Russian troops?!  You were not reading the Putin announcements.  Ah, you later got it right. 

A few Ukranian corvets were seized by Crimean self-defence militia:

Be careful Belvis, somebody could be watching you.


Question:  Does Russia pay Ukraine for the seized ships?  I understand that the Ukrainian Navy now possesses only one ship. 

[GQBlues]

Except that none of this is rational.  Its all emotion.  If it was rational Putin would not have invaded in the first place.  Putin has lost control of Ukraine and is losing control of Crimea.  He will invade and when he does, will you two patriots make excuses for Putin then?

Its good to see these clowns unmasked.

[Gator]

I just read that USA has decided to NOT impose more sanctions if Russia doesn't go any further into Ukraine....Obozo will take some heat but I like that policy, I think it is reasonable. Hopefully Russia leaves it at that as well and the world moves on. 

Yes, the "slap on the wrist" and perhaps a wink from Obama.  Although Obama did step up the rhetoric today, insulting  Russia by calling it a "regional power acting out of weakness."  A good one. Obama must have stole that one-liner from the British attending the G7 meeting.   

[Gator]

Ukraine wanted to lean towards western influence - they got it. They are now a member of the EU.

The Association Agreement is a big first step in that direction, yet Ukraine is a long way from being admitted to the EU as a member state.   The EU had problems with little Greece with one tenth the problems of Ukraine.   And Turkey has been in the wings for a long time.  Nevertheless, Ukraine's neighbors Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are full members.

Before membership in the EU, Ukraine must drastically reduce corruption plus accomplish several other goals.  Such will be a huge task with much conflict because those with money and power are the most corrupt and the least receptive to change (see Haiti).

[fathertime]

Except that none of this is rational.  Its all emotion.  If it was rational Putin would not have invaded in the first place.  Putin has lost control of Ukraine and is losing control of Crimea.  He will invade and when he does, will you two patriots make excuses for Putin then?

Its good to see these clowns unmasked.

The position you have been taking was never rational, it has been based on emotion.  Obama has made the right call, that is precisely why he was a far better choice then McCain. 


I do not want to be labeled as a patriot if that means I have to agree to commit acts of war for another country's benefit.  You have made many absolute predictions recently, and I don't suspect much or any will come to pass. 


If Russia commits an act of aggression going forward then we can react how we want.  My belief remains Russia has their warm weather ports and that was the critical element for them.  Because of Obama's intelligent/level headed decision (assuming it holds), everybody should win.  From my perspective, this is one of his best moments, although all he will receive is scorn for it. 


Fathertime!   

[missAmeno]

Brother-in-law (along with, I would surmise, every other fighting aged male in Ukraine) received a notice to prepare for recall and deployment.  If I understood this correctly, this is preparation only at this point rather than mobilization.  He is now on what would be like a stand-by status with orders to report within two hours of further notification.

Anyone know more about this recall?  Hopefully only precautionary.

Step-brother, 24 yo, have been recalled already for some time, been stationed locally and been going through training. Been allowed to visit home last weekend, deployed this morning (location unknown at this moment).
Mum says many others (family friends/acquaintances) already recalled and/or deployed. Recall is for men within age from 20 to 50 yo.

What will the Ukrainian government give those men for their training? Pitchforks?

Don't know about all 'those men' but my brother received grenade launcher among many other things.

[Anotherkiwi]

Whatever the case this topic was derailed so I can make it more informative, at least.

I agree with Gator - thanks for a rational response.

Some statistics concerning the takeover of Crimea from Ukranian troops. Alltogether about 22,000 ukrainian military were stationed in Crimea, roughly 5,000 of them are civilians at jobs in army. About 4,000 decided to evacuate from Crimea, some of them will leave the service. The rest will continue the service in the Russian army.
  One of best combat units of Ukranian army was battalion of marines in Feodosia, 600 men. 450 of them decided to stay in Crimea and take oath to Russia, 150 has evacuated to continue service in Ukraine. Among officers there is the following ratio: 1/3 moved out of Crimea, 2/3 stayed.

Belvis, that's an over-simplification.  I have no problem with your numbers, but to say that they "decided to evacuate" is stretching the truth - they had absolutely no alternative if they wished to stay alive or free from a military prison.  Again, as I posted earlier, many of these people will be leaving an area where they have lived all their lives, simply because your leader has decided that annexing Crimea is the easiest invasion that the world has seen in recent years.  It also seems that the percentage of those staying is nowhere near the 93% (or whatever the final mangled figure was) who allegedly voted "Yes" to secession in the referendum.

[BillyB]

Because of Obama's intelligent/level headed decision (assuming it holds), everybody should win.  From my perspective, this is one of his best moments, although all he will receive is scorn for it. 

When Putin told Obama he wasn't going into Ukraine, Obama was fooled plain and simple. Obama has intelligence agencies and could see troop movements yet Obama didn't threaten Putin with anything then.


If Obama gets fooled again, will Obama have another best moment to top this one? If an American President best moments only come after actions that hurt American interests, that's nothing to be proud about.


It's clear, what happened in Crimea didn't stay in Crimea. It had a rippling effect. From the world's perspective, Obama embarrassed America and showed weakness to our enemies which will make it harder to deal with Iran and North Korea, not to mention many other things. No other nation has claimed America showed strength. Only Obama and American liberals have said Obama showed strength and Putin is acting out of weakness. Our allies in Eastern Europe are living in fear, asking for meetings NOW, and begging for America's troops to be in their countries to hold training exercises. If what recently happened is Obama's best moment, the world has lots to worry about.

[ML]

From the world's perspective, Obama embarrassed America and showed weakness to our enemies which will make it harder to deal with Iran and North Korea, not to mention many other things. No other nation has claimed America showed strength.

But we all know that Russians respect those who show restraint.

[southernX]

Step-brother, 24 yo, have been recalled already for some time, been stationed locally and been going through training. Been allowed to visit home last weekend, deployed this morning (location unknown at this moment).
Mum says many others (family friends/acquaintances) already recalled and/or deployed. Recall is for men within age from 20 to 50 yo.

Don't know about all 'those men' but my brother received grenade launcher among many other things.

MISS A ,
we are in a similar position with family there ,
i hope my thoughts/posts  on the next move by mr putin are wrong , way wrong ,

 like you many of us hope and pray for the safety of our familys and loved ones who are getting caught up in all this very unneccessary aggression from russia

ukraine should be free to resolve their own internal issues ,their  good people dont deserve this

SX

[Faux Pas]

When Putin told Obama he wasn't going into Ukraine, Obama was fooled plain and simple. Obama has intelligence agencies and could see troop movements yet Obama didn't threaten Putin with anything then.


If Obama gets fooled again, will Obama have another best moment to top this one? If an American President best moments only come after actions that hurt American interests, that's nothing to be proud about.


It's clear, what happened in Crimea didn't stay in Crimea. It had a rippling effect. From the world's perspective, Obama embarrassed America and showed weakness to our enemies which will make it harder to deal with Iran and North Korea, not to mention many other things. No other nation has claimed America showed strength. Only Obama and American liberals have said Obama showed strength and Putin is acting out of weakness. Our allies in Eastern Europe are living in fear, asking for meetings NOW, and begging for America's troops to be in their countries to hold training exercises. If what recently happened is Obama's best moment, the world has lots to worry about.

That is a pretty good post Billy.

It's like the rest of this administrations action for the past 5 years. If they tell that lie long enough and loud enough, they'll have others believing it too.

[lordtiberius]

The position you have been taking was never rational, it has been based on emotion.  Obama has made the right call, that is precisely why he was a far better choice then McCain. 


I do not want to be labeled as a patriot if that means I have to agree to commit acts of war for another country's benefit.  You have made many absolute predictions recently, and I don't suspect much or any will come to pass. 


If Russia commits an act of aggression going forward then we can react how we want.  My belief remains Russia has their warm weather ports and that was the critical element for them.  Because of Obama's intelligent/level headed decision (assuming it holds), everybody should win.  From my perspective, this is one of his best moments, although all he will receive is scorn for it. 


Fathertime!

You have made many popular predictions that have been wrong.  I predicted these protests would be a revolution, that Yanuk was toast and that Pooty would invade Ukraine by seizing Crimea.  My track record is pretty good stacked against yours.

You are part of the problem - more egregious than Belvis.  Belvis gets Rusky propo and can't see behind his own nationalism.  You and others your own hatred for your own country.  I can accept anti-Americanism intellectually but when you use that to stop people - good people - who just want to help themselves, that kind morality deserves contempt.

I criticize jone for being weak and squishy and JayH for not going the full measure but at least they see this for what it is.  If you have any decency left in you, have some compassion.  You said it yourself, if you did not deserve this gift for freedom.  If that is still true for you then do something to protect it and if you can't do that - GET OUT OF THE WAY.

[fathertime]

You have made many popular predictions that have been wrong.  I predicted these protests would be a revolution, that Yanuk was toast and that Pooty would invade Ukraine by seizing Crimea.  My track record is pretty good stacked against yours.

You are part of the problem - more egregious than Belvis.  Belvis gets Rusky propo and can't see behind his own nationalism.  You and others your own hatred for your own country.  I can accept anti-Americanism intellectually but when you use that to stop people - good people - who just want to help themselves, that kind morality deserves contempt.

I criticize jone for being weak and squishy and JayH for not going the full measure but at least they see this for what it is.  If you have any decency left in you, have some compassion.  You said it yourself, if you did not deserve this gift for freedom.  If that is still true for you then do something to protect it and if you can't do that - GET OUT OF THE WAY.

The main position I’ve taken is that Russia is not interested in other parts of Ukraine, while many others are convinced he is crazy or going to march all over the world like Hitler. Be that as it may, I am not interested in competing over ‘predictions’  Your rationale has been lacking (even eye-rolling) throughout your many ‘predictions’. As much as you self-promote,   I don’t agree that your ‘track record’ is very good overall. I find that your ‘predictions’ going forward get more ridiculous each day…but that is fine, you are entitled to make them…
   
If you qualify compassion as going to war over CRIMEA, then I don’t have nor want any ‘compassion’.   If you truly believe in being a policeman for the world, maybe you should go and fight for Ukraine, In your own name but not in the rest of ours. (I won’t get in your way)  Don’t forget to ask the leadership over there if they would even like you to participate.   
 
As far as I’m concerned YOU would be a part of the problem (not the solution), and thankfully are not able to inflict your will onto our leaders.  You have shown hatred for your own country by trying to get us sucked into a war/conflict we don’t belong in, so you can say ‘Yeah I’m right’.  Thankfully there have been enough of us around to force the situation to be solved in a reasonably peaceful way, given the circumstances.  In my opinion YOU have never seen this situation for what it is.  In addition I'm noticing that you are actually conjuring things up and stating them as facts and have lost the respectful tone that you started out with.   


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

When Putin told Obama he wasn't going into Ukraine, Obama was fooled plain and simple. Obama has intelligence agencies and could see troop movements yet Obama didn't threaten Putin with anything then.


If Obama gets fooled again, will Obama have another best moment to top this one? If an American President best moments only come after actions that hurt American interests, that's nothing to be proud about.


It's clear, what happened in Crimea didn't stay in Crimea. It had a rippling effect. From the world's perspective, Obama embarrassed America and showed weakness to our enemies which will make it harder to deal with Iran and North Korea, not to mention many other things. No other nation has claimed America showed strength. Only Obama and American liberals have said Obama showed strength and Putin is acting out of weakness. Our allies in Eastern Europe are living in fear, asking for meetings NOW, and begging for America's troops to be in their countries to hold training exercises. If what recently happened is Obama's best moment, the world has lots to worry about.

Well BillyB, I don't know what was said between Obama and Putin before this all went down.  I just feel given the circumstances, Obama made a good move by deescalating today.  If this ends relatively peacefully, all the players might wind up winning.  Ripple effects, maybe so.






Fathertime! 

[southernX]

ft,
while i certainly hope my posts are wrong , im not the only one to think putin still has food on the table to eat

link below with good reasoned points on why it might happen

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/25/russia_s_window_of_opportunity_in_ukraine

it is interesting reading for the strategists,,
SX

[fathertime]

ft,
while i certainly hope my posts are wrong , im not the only one to think putin still has food on the table to eat

link below with good reasoned points on why it might happen

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/25/russia_s_window_of_opportunity_in_ukraine

it is interesting reading for the strategists,,
SX

hey sx...interesting article,,,,I see the case for russia to invade...I also think there is a strong one for them to stop...the article states they would need to do it quickly...so we shall find out soon enough if the author is right on that count.   


Fathertime!   

[BillyB]

I just feel given the circumstances, Obama made a good move by deescalating today.  If this ends relatively peacefully, all the players might wind up winning.  Ripple effects, maybe so.

Hey Fathertime, I'm not offended by your opinions as some people are. You had to defend your views but you are actually in the majority. Most of Western Europe and Americans don't want Obama to do anything more than he is doing now. Obama governs based off public opinion but that doesn't mean he's always right. If Obama wanted to do more, he would need to educate people on the reasons he's acting in an aggressive manner to protect America's interest elsewhere that provides long term benefits.


In history, most Americans have tried to persuade presidents from getting involved in other nation's problems. I've criticized FDR for being slow getting America into WWII but at the time, the American public didn't want to get involved in another European war. To FDR's credit, he sold Americans on why he's sending troops there. He was right. The majority of Americans were wrong. It's human nature to not want to put ourselves at risk when the risk is someone else's.


The ripple effect of Crimea is easily seen from the reactions of our Eastern European allies to right here at this forum. Members and members families are living in fear. Even if Putin doesn't proceed further as you've predicted, it's no reason to celebrate. These people will be living with some level of fear for many years to come. If your friends and family were living in fear, as the head of your household and as a reliable friend, you have an obligation to provide a safe environment for them and eliminate the cause of the fear. I actually respect Putin for taking care of Russian citizens in Crimea and protecting Russia's interest. I don't want war with Russia but I do want to provide a safe environment for our friends in Eastern Europe and Ukraine and I wished Obama sent troops there and made a statement that we really don't want you to advance anymore instead of just verbally threating "costs". It would then be up to Russia if they want a war. Our friends and family living over there can't experience true freedom if they are living in fear. Ukraine must make many changes to be a reliable partner but there are people there that want to make those changes and they need our help just as America needed France's help to get out from under the British Empire. Being patriotic and having the spirit to fight gets you only so far. Pitchforks don't do well against the British Empire's cannons and grenade launchers don't do well against Russian tanks.


Weeks ago Obama said he will get tough with Russia if they get involved with Crimea. Obama now has now surrendered Crimea to Russia and says he will get tough with Russia if they proceed further than Crimea. Obama lied the first time, why should anybody believe he'll mean what he says now? Obama has earned a reputation of being soft. Russia, Iran, North Korea, China and our friends understand this. Yes, it's easy to believe the best road is taking the road that is least confrontational but it may be the road that leads to the most destruction if it enables our enemies.


Did you see those two videos I provided for JayH earlier? It kind of amazes me some of the things Ronald Reagan said many years ago that could be applied here today. Reagan was hard on the Soviets yet after the Cold War ended, our enemies respected befriended him. He's the man who supported Afghanistan to push back the Soviets. He's the man who punished Ghaddafi multiple times. He's the man who sent the aircraft carrier Yorktown to enforce international boundaries and law at sea in whynotme's video that showed a Russian ship ramming it. America has acted as the world's policeman many times but if not us, who? Many of us speed on highways. Without enforcement, things get way out of control. Drivers will push their limit at speed, nations will push their borders. No surprises there but there has to be law and someone has to enforce those laws. You don't want America to be the world's policeman and the UN is incapable of that position since countries have differing opinions and veto rights to deny actions against themselves or friends. In the absence of law and it's enforcement, there's anarchy. Who do you think is best for the job?

[Faux Pas]

ft,
while i certainly hope my posts are wrong , im not the only one to think putin still has food on the table to eat

link below with good reasoned points on why it might happen

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/03/25/russia_s_window_of_opportunity_in_ukraine

it is interesting reading for the strategists,,
SX

Interesting hypothesis. Appears someone put much more thought into it than I but, my conclusion is the same. I'm confident Kiev is Putins goal. I don't see anything stopping him either