What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[lordtiberius]

The main position I’ve taken is that Russia is not interested in other parts of Ukraine, while many others are convinced he is crazy or going to march all over the world like Hitler. Be that as it may, I am not interested in competing over ‘predictions’  Your rationale has been lacking (even eye-rolling) throughout your many ‘predictions’. As much as you self-promote,   I don’t agree that your ‘track record’ is very good overall. I find that your ‘predictions’ going forward get more ridiculous each day…but that is fine, you are entitled to make them…
   
If you qualify compassion as going to war over CRIMEA, then I don’t have nor want any ‘compassion’.   If you truly believe in being a policeman for the world, maybe you should go and fight for Ukraine, In your own name but not in the rest of ours. (I won’t get in your way)  Don’t forget to ask the leadership over there if they would even like you to participate.   
 
As far as I’m concerned YOU would be a part of the problem (not the solution), and thankfully are not able to inflict your will onto our leaders.  You have shown hatred for your own country by trying to get us sucked into a war/conflict we don’t belong in, so you can say ‘Yeah I’m right’.  Thankfully there have been enough of us around to force the situation to be solved in a reasonably peaceful way, given the circumstances.  In my opinion YOU have never seen this situation for what it is.  In addition I'm noticing that you are actually conjuring things up and stating them as facts and have lost the respectful tone that you started out with.   


Fathertime!

Your position is immoral.  Others and I have demonstrated this over and over again.  Your pride has blinded you to this.

During the Syria crisis, you excoriated this president and now you are singing his praises.  So please don't preach to me about ideological consistency.  But now as we retreat, the world seems to go up in smoke.  You and Ron Paul should high five each other.  Smoke a joint and talk about building 7.

[southernX]

Interesting hypothesis. Appears someone put much more thought into it than I but, my conclusion is the same. I'm confident Kiev is Putins goal. I don't see anything stopping him either

agree !
all ukraine at present wont cost him much , or at least it is looking that way
at the very least he wants/needs the s/east of ukraine across to moldova to link all the pieces together ,

SX

[lordtiberius]

This idea that everyone agrees with FT is false.  Most Americans don't like Obama's weak foriegn policy.  They agree with Palin, McCain and Romney, that America should be strong and stand for freedom and not bending over for Putin like FT & the other  Putinistas want to do.

How a man can sit there and do nothing while one man robs another is not to be cuddled and congratulated for his inaction.  He should be shamed for that kind of man has no honor.
 

[fathertime]

Hey Fathertime, I'm not offended by your opinions as some people are. You had to defend your views but you are actually in the majority. Most of Western Europe and Americans don't want Obama to do anything more than he is doing now.


Weeks ago Obama said he will get tough with Russia if they get involved with Crimea. Obama now has now surrendered Crimea to Russia and says he will get tough with Russia if they proceed further than Crimea. Obama lied the first time, why should anybody believe he'll mean what he says now? Obama has earned a reputation of being soft. Russia, Iran, North Korea, China and our friends understand this. Yes, it's easy to believe the best road is taking the road that is least confrontational but it may be the road that leads to the most destruction if it enables our enemies.

 

Hey Billy,
Yeah I agree that most people here don't want us to get involved...for better or for worse.  For me, one of the bottom lines is that I believe that most of the people in Crimea are happy about being annexed by Russia.  Another bottom line is that Russia feels those ports are critical for them, and I can understand their position.  Looking at the totality of the circumstances, I can see exactly why they made the move they did.   Given all this, I'm convinced that Russia would truly fight so this is not a fight we need at this time when it can be avoided.  Everybody knows there could come a point where a fight may not be avoidable, but I don't see us being anywhere near that point. I see very little harm in letting things play out for a while, but I see the potential for a great deal of harm if we jump the gun. 
Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

Your position is immoral.  Others and I have demonstrated this over and over again.  Your pride has blinded you to this.

During the Syria crisis, you excoriated this president and now you are singing his praises.  So please don't preach to me about ideological consistency.  But now as we retreat, the world seems to go up in smoke.  You and Ron Paul should high five each other.  Smoke a joint and talk about building 7.

You are the preacher; I’m the guy rolling the eyes at the silliness.  I’ve decided that your position is immoral and based on a false pride, nothing more.  My position has been consistent in both Syria and Ukraine, as I’m against us intervening in both places, for different reasons.   Your attempts to lump yourself in with everybody else is laughable and desperate.  Don’t you feel you can stand by yourself as others have?  Others have made good arguments; you moan that anybody would take a different position.   I continue to believe Russia is not moving any further unless they are attacked by an outside force.   I’m glad Obama has had a steady enough hand to see this for what it is, a nervous nelly like you would have set the world afire by now.  Doesn’t that make you an immoral moralist? If you had any courage you would be over there doing something to ‘right’ the situation you feel  SO strongly about, instead of trying to make everybody carry your water for you.   


Until you change your attempts at denigration and attitude towards differing opinions, I will no longer find any need to take you or your views seriously. You are now merely a loud, attention-seeking clown. 


Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

This idea that everyone agrees with FT is false.  Most Americans don't like Obama's weak foriegn policy. 

Check the polls LT, most Americans think like Fathertime and they don't want any serious involvement in Ukraine. You are correct that Americans don't like the way Obama handled the crisis in Crimea which embarrassed this nation. His approval ratings are down. He failed to do what the majority wanted and project strength at the same time.


Anybody watch Obama speak in Europe recently? He looks exhausted. Busy guy with lots of fires to put out which tells me, although Crimea is over, our allies won't let him rest easy.

[JayH]

I continue to be amazed how blind some choose to be about Russian intentions. Why would there be 100,000+ troops, 500 and now 700+ tanks, 240+ attack helicopters in place? This is a massive force and it has massive logistical support as well as an unknown number of attack aircraft ready to go.
Stop being so blind to the  potential slaughter of innocent Ukrainians who have done nothing to Russia or Russians.The west can stop this in it's tracks-- prior to a Russian advance by simply making it clear they are going to wade into it.No one is asking for a task force to retrieve the Crimea( not at this stage anyway) -- just a commitment from the west  will stabilise the current situation.
Putin will not fight the west-he thinks his tanks are going to roll in and meet little effective resistence--it is typical bully.
Some of you here have at least stopped saying Ukrainians will not fight their Russian brothers-- but it has become abundantly clear that they will fight--but they need help and should not be left alone.
Another point that has arisen-- about US being the worlds policeman-- one of the big pushes of the eu was to reduce military spending and create a cooperative military. Combined that makes a substantial force-- but it relies on all the members with common interests to chip in and do their part in a crisis. This is a crisis now.
Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons,gave up substantial weapons,munitions,and had reduced the size of its military. All that was based on the concept of being a good world citizen  and the treaties in place that supported Ukraines borders .
The US is integral in any action around the world to assist with the defence of those with like beliefs and intentions--it is not reasonable or sensible to ignore that obligation.
As far as what a majority would vote for in the US-- well--once elected to higher office  a major point is that you are there to lead--to do what is right and not be guided by short term political considerations-there is not time to conduct a plebiscite on every issue.
Finally-- I urge all of you to try and help avoid this catastrophe looming- do what you can.

[calmissile]

Check the polls LT, most Americans think like Fathertime and they don't want any serious involvement in Ukraine. You are correct that Americans don't like the way Obama handled the crisis in Crimea which embarrassed this nation. His approval ratings are down. He failed to do what the majority wanted and project strength at the same time.


Anybody watch Obama speak in Europe recently? He looks exhausted. Busy guy with lots of fires to put out which tells me, although Crimea is over, our allies won't let him rest easy.

Your kidding?  Brittian signed the same Budapest Memorandum the U.S. did and they have even less guts than Obama.  Neither nation honored the agreement to protect Ukraine's sovereignty.  Both nations should be embarrassed.  Who would believe either nation in the future?

Hopefully the Democratic Party will take a huge dump in the toilet this coming November.  I am not that fond of the Republican Party either, but I think they would have at least sent military hardware to allow Ukraine to have weapons to protect their borders and country from Russian invasion.

[southernX]

father time  For me, one of the bottom lines is that I believe that most of the people in Crimea are happy about being annexed by Russia.   

id say thats not anywhere near true , the latest info/news coming out of crimea and the'' referendum'' it had is showing more like less than 50% of people voted let alone agreed/happy with the outcome , many where scared to dissent

fathertime Another bottom line is that Russia feels those ports are critical for them, and I can understand their position. 

that bottom line they already had signed up with ukraine until 2024,
in the international forum if they had worries it should be negotiated , thats what is the expected norm , not invasions to have your way

calmissile  Brittian signed the same Budapest Memorandum the U.S. did and they have even less guts than Obama.  Neither nation honored the agreement to protect Ukraine's sovereignty.  Both nations should be embarrassed. 

id agree , it would seem mr putin has read his tea leaves correctly , the EU/US/NATO are at this stage prepared to let ukraine go it alone , and take it chances rather than sacrifice their popularity at home and their economies , .... piss poor 


 

calmissile . would believe either nation in the future?

yep exactly , not just them but any country from here on in if this passes , will know , bottom line your on your own , all bets are off, boost your own defence , however you can 
all else is pure lip service when it comes to the crunch


sad reflection on our current leaders imho ,
SX

[BillyB]

Your kidding?

To be specific, it's our East European allies that won't let Obama rest easy.

Who would believe either nation in the future?

Not President Karzai of Afghanistan. I'm not a fan of his but he had much better relations with Bush. Obama didn't call the guy in over a year and let the relationship deteriorate. Karzai recently announced that he supports Russia's recent actions. It's possible Obama not only allowed Russia to take Crimea, he gave them Afghanistan too. What will Obama give up next? The internet? Yeah, he's considering giving internet control to a world body right now since he doesn't trust America to dictate free speech. Let's let China have a say on what we're allowed to read on the internet. There are nations that are on the fence of who to align themselves with. If America isn't reliable and trustworthy, those nations will choose to align themselves with the bad boys since those guys mean what they say.


Obama said if Syria uses chemical weapons, he'd use military action against them. Obama didn't keep his word. He made an agreement to have Syria give up their weapons. Syria has duped Obama and not done that completely and is dragging their feet but Obama doesn't care to enforcing the rules. Obama has shown weakness which empowers our adversaries.


Obama has lifted the sanctions on Iran. What did we get in return? Nothing. Obama has cancelled the promised missile defense system in Poland and Czech Republic. What did Russia give us in return for doing that? Nothing. Obama is currently reducing the size of our military at a time when Russia and China is making significant jumps in military spending. It's safe to say Obama truly believes in equality. Someday America won't be capable of being the world's policeman. Will the world become a more peaceful place?

Why would there be 100,000+ troops, 500 and now 700+ tanks, 240+ attack helicopters in place? This is a massive force and it has massive logistical support as well as an unknown number of attack aircraft ready to go.

Maybe Putin just wants to waste taxpayers money moving all that stuff over there for show?

[Belvis]

Effectively  75% voted to stay, surrendering their Ukrainian citizenship and becoming Russian citizens.   Evidently military units are drawn from nearby communities and not from the entire nation. 

Logic in action. You're right, ukrainian law stipulates  draft local men serve in their regions.

Russian troops?!  You were not reading the Putin announcements.  Ah, you later got it right.

Yep, russian troops are called "green little men" in Ukraine and "polite men" in Crimea. However when I told about Crimean self-defence militia it was not a fault. Many active  retirees from Soviet military and Russian fleet live in Crimea.

Question:  Does Russia pay Ukraine for the seized ships?  I understand that the Ukrainian Navy now possesses only one ship.

That's the question. Negotiations are needed. But to be honest these seized ships have little value as combat ships because all of them were built in SU and considered being outdated.

Belvis, that's an over-simplification.  I have no problem with your numbers, but to say that they "decided to evacuate" is stretching the truth - they had absolutely no alternative if they wished to stay alive or free from a military prison.

I don't get it. Military prison in Ukraine is a real danger for those who turned themselves under russian flags. Some guys will cancel army contract and continue to live in Crimea. Crimean authorities and Russian military persecute armed men at Crimea and show no interest in them after they are out of bases in civilian cloth.

[JayH]

I criticize jone for being weak and squishy and JayH for not going the full measure but at least they see this for what it is. 

Full measure? I did say if it was my decision I would sweep the Russians into the sea -not sure where else that could go.Would I start a nuclear attack on Russia-no- I would not pre-empt that.
Would I defend Ukraine with all the resources available to the west- unequivocally.
The problem is right now that i do not want to see Ukrainians losing their lives needlessly-- and in a hopeless battle - if it comes to an invasion the west must help them.Would I personally start shooting people on the Crimea at this minute- No- right now it is most important to stabilise Ukraine and get plans moving for the future-including alignments to help in the future.Giving Putin any provocation to invade-- that would be a mistake right now. Ukraine has the international high moral ground -they need to keep it.
Obama called Russia a second rate power earlier today-- we need to hear more of that talk to make it clear to Putin that the rest of the world is contemptuous of Putin and Russia.

[lordtiberius]

Check the polls LT, most Americans think like Fathertime and they don't want any serious involvement in Ukraine. You are correct that Americans don't like the way Obama handled the crisis in Crimea which embarrassed this nation. His approval ratings are down. He failed to do what the majority wanted and project strength at the same time.


Anybody watch Obama speak in Europe recently? He looks exhausted. Busy guy with lots of fires to put out which tells me, although Crimea is over, our allies won't let him rest easy.

I don't care how tired he looks.  He works for us.  He wanted the job and lied, cheated and stole to get the job.  If he is tired, tell him not to vacation as much.  How really needs a 900 vehicle entourage?

BillyB, you check the polls 59% oppose military cuts.  Sweden is thinking of joining NATO.  Canada who also shares a Russian border is rethinking its defense cuts.  We fought 2 World Wars and 1 Cold War for European Security.  We have a glimpse of Father time's wet dream of world without the US and looks worse than a Cold War Holocaust as you would have multiple nuregional nuclear wars raging.

Despite the rosy assessments of the Putin shills like FT and GQB that gloss over the long term consequences of Cameron-Obama in failing to adhere to the Budapest Memorandum.  Russia must be kicked off the Security Council, must be partitioned and must be stopped.  They are as Tara's Kuzio said: Rwanda with nukes.  Now the world is held hostage by the whims of this mafia state.  Every day we wake up not wondering what Obama will do.  We know he will do: boys, coke and hurt his own people.  We wonder what this KGB thug will do next.  GQB and FT may be comfortable with that reality after their long labors and scarafices fighting for democracy and liberty.  But I am not.

[lordtiberius]

JayH, the only way Russia will leave the Crimea is by force.  The only way to stop Russia is to force it.  Whether we do it, or Ukraine does it, that is what needs to be done.  That is the full measure.  Putin through Kiselov and Rogozin said he is willing to use nukes to get what he wants.  How do you stop such men?  More force.  Despite what the wankers say, that's always how the world works and despite all our flaws, we are still the best hope the world has at lasting peace.

Neoconservativism is back FT.

[Anotherkiwi]

I don't get it. Military prison in Ukraine is a real danger for those who turned themselves under russian flags. Some guys will cancel army contract and continue to live in Crimea. Crimean authorities and Russian military persecute armed men at Crimea and show no interest in them after they are out of bases in civilian cloth.

You're missing, or misinterpreting my point - the loyal Ukrainian troops in Crimea would quite likely end up in a Russian military prison if they didn't go to the mainland.  And, as you say, the vast majority of the Ukrainian troops in Crimea are locals - why should they have to leave their homes just because the dictator next door wants their part of the country?  You can bet many of those who have decided to become turncoats and join the Russian Army/Navy/Air Force are doing so more out of fear for their families than because they truly believe in the great Russian Bear.

[Belvis]

You're missing, or misinterpreting my point - the loyal Ukrainian troops in Crimea would quite likely end up in a Russian military prison if they didn't go to the mainland.  And, as you say, the vast majority of the Ukrainian troops in Crimea are locals - why should they have to leave their homes just because the dictator next door wants their part of the country?  You can bet many of those who have decided to become turncoats and join the Russian Army/Navy/Air Force are doing so more out of fear for their families than because they truly believe in the great Russian Bear.

As far as I know russian military prison for loyal ukrainian troops is kind of virtual problem while there are more vital affairs. Troops are pushed out of bases, then it's up to them what to do then. They can choose: leave Ukrainian army or leave Crimea. I don't think the third option, they continue to serve Ukrainian army in Crimea, is realistic.
Nobody there fear for families, though ukrainian sources claim the opposite, of course. Problem is how to communicate within separated families if Russia-Ukraine border will be closed or visa introduced.

[die_cast]

Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops did not share your opinion - and died - when the Germans invaded the USSR in 1941 .

They had no choice. Those days it was much more important to share not my opinion, but comrade Stalin's opinion. Because if you don't share it, you as a people's enemy, will be dead anyway. If they were not killed by Germans, they would be killed by their own compatriots.

[tfcrew]

[fathertime]

Full measure? I did say if it was my decision I would sweep the Russians into the sea -not sure where else that could go.Would I start a nuclear attack on Russia-no- I would not pre-empt that.
 

  Hey Jay!
The way I see it is that Russia will not just be ‘rolled into the sea’ as you put it.  There would be a genuine very bloody battle…and nothing is to say that battle couldn’t be carried out anywhere, like even American shores…Americans don’t want this, not over a small piece of land that Russia has some legitimate ties to.  I realize the vote couldn’t possibly represent the percentages correctly, but even CNN is stating that it does appear the will of the people was to be separated from Ukraine; it makes me believe that it is probably true.   Had this been Australia or Iceland or some other completely different region then I think people in both America and Europe would have been moved to the point of acting, but not for a small ambiguous region like Crimea.




Yes troops and tanks have massed, but they haven’t done anything important…Russia has already had the option to move forward.  There has been no important reason to wait, the West has already blinked…I believe the reality is Russia is not moving because they don’t want to.  My feeling is that the troops and tanks represent a wiliness to fight if that is what it comes down to, but not an invasion force.  If Russia was going to invade Ukraine, Moldova and other locations, it would have started already.  Why would Russia wait until Ukraine organized itself and the West had time to figure out how to counter them?  I still say it ain’t going to happen and was never on the plate.   As the weeks continue to pass by and Russia stays put and the dust settles in Crimea, I wonder what excuse the loud clown is going to have to make war or why his 'important predictions' didn't come to pass. 


Fathertime!   

[GQBlues]

Their Guy / Our Guy piture

Pretty funny. I think this one is a bit 'more' fitting these days...

[BillyB]

Yes troops and tanks have massed, but they haven’t done anything important…Russia has already had the option to move forward.  There has been no important reason to wait, the West has already blinked…I believe the reality is Russia is not moving because they don’t want to. 

This military buildup is still ongoing. When Putin finishes building up this force, we can place our bets then. Let's hope it's just a big waste of his taxpayer's money.

[Muzh]

This military buildup is still ongoing. When Putin finishes building up this force, we can place our bets then. Let's hope it's just a big waste of his taxpayer's money.

Mr. Billy is very astute.
 
Must be so nice to live in la la land where taking the troops and the tanks out for a stroll at the cost of millions of Roubles to an economy who is not in the best condition, is considered being superfluous.

[Anotherkiwi]

As far as I know russian military prison for loyal ukrainian troops is kind of virtual problem while there are more vital affairs. Troops are pushed out of bases, then it's up to them what to do then. They can choose: leave Ukrainian army

I understood from what was written earlier that the Ukrainian army, unlike the Russian, is staffed by volunteers.  If you are brave enough to volunteer to serve your country, why would you walk away at the first sign of trouble?

or leave Crimea.

Again, for many, this would be a gut-wrenching choice as they would have to leave the area where they have lived their whole lives.

I don't think the third option, they continue to serve Ukrainian army in Crimea, is realistic.

I agree - their chances of survival, in the current climate, would seem problematic at best.

Nobody there fear for families, though ukrainian sources claim the opposite, of course.

How can you possibly know this?  You aren't there, and you're not a member of the Ukrainian armed forces.  It's not just Ukrainian sources which claim this - the BBC, for one, has interviewed Ukrainian soldiers who expressed this particular fear very eloquently.

Problem is how to communicate within separated families if Russia-Ukraine border will be closed or visa introduced.

A very real problem, which is happening already.

[Muzh]

'Don't Give It To A Russian' Campaign Urges Ukrainian Sex Strike
 
 
A group of Ukrainian women is resorting to drastic measures to protest Moscow's moves in Crimea by calling for a sex strike against Russian men.
 
Organizers of the campaign "Don't Give It To A Russian" are urging fellow Ukrainian females to stay away from Russian men, the Atlantic reports. T-shirts designed by the campaign are emblazoned with the slogan, followed by a verse from the poem Kateryna by Ukraine's Taras Shevchenko: “O lovely maidens, fall in love, but not with the Moskaly (the Russians).
 
Katerina Venzhik, one of the group's founders and a Kiev-based editor at the Ukrainian news site Delo.UA, told Foreign Policy that the women started the campaign to draw attention to Russia's policies in Crimea.
 
Many Ukrainians have watched in disbelief in recent weeks as Russia flooded Crimea with troops, supported a disputed referendum on its status, and swiftly annexed the peninsula. Ukrainian troops are being pulled out of Crimea and Ukrainian-speaking residents say they may flee Kremlin control, Agence France Presse reports.
 
Venzhik said the campaign will donate proceeds from the t-shirts to the Ukrainian army. "We believe that in the context of military occupation of the territory it is silly to continue to assert that all men are brothers," she told Foreign Policy.
 
Whether the campaign will take off remains the be seen, as it still has to catch on in Ukraine. In Russia, however, bloggers have responded fiercely to the movement, and even Russian officials took note, according to Global Voices.
 
For pictures go here

[lordtiberius]

http://fullofbias.wordpress.com/2014/03/26/if-putin-has-strategy/

Crimea will return to Ukraine.

- Leonid Rogozin