What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[jone]

Okay, show me a link where this was going to happen. I don't care if the link comes directly from the Kremlin. Just show me there were plans for a base in Ukraine. Then I will tell you that was going to be impossible for the next 28 years.
 
But you first show me the link.

If I were Russia, I would be disturbed!

By taking over Crimea, Russia removes the one obstacle which the nation of Ukraine could not overcome if it wished to join NATO.   There was speculation (at the time) that this was the primary reason for Russia instituting the Crimean base lease through 2042.  If you are a member of NATO you may not have forces of a non-member country stationed in your country - your country cannot be used as a military base for forces from a non-member country.  The Russian military base and naval base in Crimea would have prevented Ukraine from joining NATO. 

Now the clear favorite in the presidential race is someone who has previously advocated NATO membership.

If Russia does not invade, then clearly, they will have to contend with a government that may sign a NATO treaty and put NATO troops on the border of Russia, directly opposing those that Putin now maintains on the Russian border with Ukraine.

[BC]

Time passes quickly, although agreements for naval bases run for a while, no one knows how political tides can turn.  IMHO Putin saw weakness and made sure RU's strategic assets would not get away. Even if UA moved more west, politically speaking Crimea would be a thorn in their side.  Crimea is surrounded by oil and gas fields and served by pipelines so I doubt energy will be a problem.  Agriculture and tourism drive the rest of the economy along with a good number of industries large and small. Add a fair number of merchant ports.  Yes, there is a cost but I doubt it will become unbearable for RU.  In fact the price is likely far less than that in 5 10 or more years.
 
For entry into EU and NATO one has to bring assets to the table and not liabilities.  UA has lost this asset.

Looking at this thread there is a whole lot of speculation and assumptions, mostly along political lines.  Maybe it would be best to step back, objectively look at the facts and the long term picture instead.

What are the assets Crimea will bring to RU aside from good wine and Krimsekt?

[Muzh]

If I were Russia, I would be disturbed!

Mentally disturbed?
 

(Reuters) - Russia threatened several Eastern European and Central Asian states with retaliation if they voted in favor of a United Nations General Assembly resolution this week declaring invalid Crimea's referendum on seceding from Ukraine, U.N. diplomats said.
  The disclosures about Russian threats came after Moscow accused Western countries of using "shameless pressure, up to the point of political blackmail and economic threats," in an attempt to coerce the United Nations' 193 member states to join it in supporting the non-binding resolution on the Ukraine crisis.
  According to interviews with U.N. diplomats, most of whom preferred to speak on condition of anonymity for fear of angering Moscow, the targets of Russian threats included Moldova, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as well as a number of African countries.
  A spokesman for Russia's Mission to the U.N. denied that Moscow threatened any country with retaliation if it supported the resolution, saying: "We never threaten anyone. We just explain the situation."
 

Reuters
  We just explain the situation?? Are you shitting me?
 
 
 
Which parallel universe is this?

[Muzh]

What are the assets Crimea will bring to RU aside from good wine and Krimsekt?

Exellent question.
 
What assets does Criema bring to the RF that it did not provide previously?

[BC]

Exellent question.
 
What assets does Criema bring to the RF that it did not provide previously?

As it stands today, a permanent strategic military presence, vs an agreement that could be broken or not renewed in the future.

[Muzh]

As it stands today, a permanent strategic military presence, vs an agreement that could be broken or not renewed in the future.

You really think it was worth incurring the scorn of every other European country?
 
Now I'm asking you, objectively, what was the real gain of buying the cow when they were getting the milk for free? Now they have to infuse billion$$$ into this place. Crimea was dragging Ukraine's economy. Now they can get a bigger bang for the buck from that IMF loan. Not really a great chess move if you want to bring your opponent down.
 
Not to mention that any kind of covert influence in the Rada is gone since there are no more reps from Crimea.
 
Furthermore, awakening a moribund NATO. That one has me scratching my bald head.
 
Eastern Ukraine. Yep. Of course you still have some provocateurs out there and people who want to join Russia. HOWEVER, I would bet lots of cash that the number of these Ukrainians that felt closer ties to Russia has decrease considerably. Just hedging my bets based on ground reports.
 
BC, look at what I was saying before Putin took Crimea. I kept saying it would never happen. It defied logic. Still does.
 
When the US went after Iraq, everyone knew we wanted the oil. WMD my ass. OIL baby. When the US went after Grenada, Reagan was NOT having a good year in the White House and the same for George Herbert Walker with Panama. A little distraction from the real proble: the economy.
 
Here Putin threw away the distraction and brought in the economy. This is his Waterloo.

[jone]

Time passes quickly, although agreements for naval bases run for a while, no one knows how political tides can turn.  IMHO Putin saw weakness and made sure RU's strategic assets would not get away. Even if UA moved more west, politically speaking Crimea would be a thorn in their side.  Crimea is surrounded by oil and gas fields and served by pipelines so I doubt energy will be a problem.  Agriculture and tourism drive the rest of the economy along with a good number of industries large and small. Add a fair number of merchant ports.  Yes, there is a cost but I doubt it will become unbearable for RU.  In fact the price is likely far less than that in 5 10 or more years.
 
For entry into EU and NATO one has to bring assets to the table and not liabilities.  UA has lost this asset.

Looking at this thread there is a whole lot of speculation and assumptions, mostly along political lines.  Maybe it would be best to step back, objectively look at the facts and the long term picture instead.

What are the assets Crimea will bring to RU aside from good wine and Krimsekt?

You do realize that Russia is nearing completion on another warm water naval base in the Black Sea?

[Anotherkiwi]

You do realize that Russia is nearing completion on another warm water naval base in the Black Sea?

Where is it, jone?  When I've looked at the map, I can see several areas from Sochi all the way up to Taganrog that appear to be possible sites for one or more new bases.  I'm actually surprised that Russia hadn't already completed at least one, given that the original lease on Sevastopol was due to run out quite soon (and there could be no gurantee that it would have been renewed the way that Yanukovich did).

[die_cast]

When I've looked at the map, I can see several areas from Sochi all the way up to Taganrog that appear to be possible sites for one or more new bases. 

Just looking at the map is not enough, most places are not good for making bases there, keep in mind most of them are tourist areas, port of Novorossiysk is too busy already with other stuff, in some places it's just impossible to have big ships.

[Muzh]

Interesting article I read today.
 

Russia suffered a massive reversal after former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich fell. It acted not so much to reverse the defeat as to shape perceptions of its power. Moscow's power is real but insufficient to directly reverse events by occupying Kiev. It will need to use Ukraine's economic weakness, political fragmentation and time to try to reassert its position. In order to do this, it needs a negotiated solution that it hopes will be superseded by events. To have that solution, Moscow needs a significant negotiating partner. The United States is the only one available. And for all its complexity and oddities, if it can be persuaded to act, it alone can provide the stable platform that Russia now needs.
 
The United States is not ready to concede that it has entered a period during which competition with Russia will be a defining element in its foreign policy. Its internal logic is not focused on Russia, nor are internal bureaucratic interests aligned. There is an argument to be made that it is not in the U.S. interest to end the Ukrainian crisis, that allowing Russia to go deeper into the Ukrainian morass will sap its strength and abort the emerging competition before it really starts. But the United States operates by its own process, and it is not yet ready to think in terms of weakening Russia, and given the United States' relative isolation, postponement is not a bad idea.
 
Therefore, the negotiations show promise. But more important, the Russians have shown us the way the world still works. When something must get done, the number to call is still in the United States.

Russia and the United States Negotiate the Future of Ukraine | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

[alex330]

What assets does Criema bring to the RF that it did not provide previously?

Haven't they discovered deep water gas deposits in the Black Sea off Krim?

[Belvis]

When I've looked at the map, I can see several areas from Sochi all the way up to Taganrog that appear to be possible sites for one or more new bases.  I'm actually surprised that Russia hadn't already completed at least one, given that the original lease on Sevastopol was due to run out quite soon (and there could be no gurantee that it would have been renewed the way that Yanukovich did).

There is a naval base in Novorossiysk,  northeastern shore of the Black Sea:



However, Novorossiysk is not an ideal location because it does not have the natural deep sea harbour Sevastopol has, and the commercial port operations limit the available space.
Looking at the map one can see a strategic  position of Crimea overlooking Black Sea. 
Moscow plan to transfer  Tupolev Tu-22M3 'Backfire' long-range supersonic bombers to Crimea by 2016 as part of a build-up of maritime aviation assets:



From the Crimea, the Tu-22M3s in strike or reconnaissance roles will be able to support Russian naval tasks forces patrolling the Mediterranean Sea, including off the coast of Syria, and keep in check  possible NATO expansion in Ukraine.

[Belvis]

Haven't they discovered deep water gas deposits in the Black Sea off Krim?

That's right, the gas deposits off Crimea shores are not too ample but enough to provide local consumption and may be little export in future.

[Muzh]

Haven't they discovered deep water gas deposits in the Black Sea off Krim?

Do you really think that you can bring a portable auger from Home Depot to the shore and get an oil well?

[alex330]

Do you really think that you can bring a portable auger from Home Depot to the shore and get an oil well?

Well, we are talking about undersea natural gas with technology I do not believe the Russians are utilizing yet. I was under the impression that Western companies were moving into the Black Sea region to exploit this resource which would help wean Ukraine from Russia's teat.

Nobody has brought up the fact that the second largest solar farm in Europe (and 6th in the world) lies in Crimea. The fourth largest farm in the world also happens to be in Crimea.

Would hate for those damn Ukrainians to become energy independent like Brazil.

[Muzh]

Well, we are talking about undersea natural gas with technology I do not believe the Russians are utilizing yet. I was under the impression that Western companies were moving into the Black Sea region to exploit this resource which would help wean Ukraine from Russia's teat.

Nobody has brought up the fact that the second largest solar farm in Europe (and 6th in the world) lies in Crimea. The fourth largest farm in the world also happens to be in Crimea.

Would hate for those damn Ukrainians to become energy independent like Brazil.

The reason those deposits were not exploited was because Goldilocks wanted a cut in the action and went after Firtash and Yanukonvict and receded the contract they had signed with two Girl Scouts from a Carribean island. When this happened the Girl Scouts sued Ukraine through a big oil conglomerate coming out of Houston to reinstate the contract. Well Goldilocks said to them to give her a cut or they could take a hike. Well, knowing how conglomerates work, they turned it down because they could not justify a 60% profit to their shareholders. Goldilocks cut was close to 20% and so was Firtash. Ukraine was going to ge close to 1% of the profits.
 
Now that Crimea is part of Russia, forget about it. The oil conglomerates are still smarrting from that TNK-BP debacle a few years ago so Russia can forget about western cooperation (deep-sea oil) for a long time.

[Anotherkiwi]

Just looking at the map is not enough, most places are not good for making bases there, keep in mind most of them are tourist areas, port of Novorossiysk is too busy already with other stuff, in some places it's just impossible to have big ships.

I realise that - how would Gelendzhik suit?  It appears to have a nicely-sheltered harbour, but is it too popular with tourists?  Or, a lot further north, what about Grimorsko-Ahtarsk (sp)?  If the Sea of Azov doesn't freeze over, and the big inlets from the sea can be dredged easily enough, it would seem to have huge potential, especially with an airport only a few kilometres away.

[jone]

The reason those deposits were not exploited was because Goldilocks wanted a cut in the action and went after Firtash and Yanukonvict and receded the contract they had signed with two Girl Scouts from a Carribean island. When this happened the Girl Scouts sued Ukraine through a big oil conglomerate coming out of Houston to reinstate the contract. Well Goldilocks said to them to give her a cut or they could take a hike. Well, knowing how conglomerates work, they turned it down because they could not justify a 60% profit to their shareholders. Goldilocks cut was close to 20% and so was Firtash. Ukraine was going to ge close to 1% of the profits.
 
Now that Crimea is part of Russia, forget about it. The oil conglomerates are still smarrting from that TNK-BP debacle a few years ago so Russia can forget about western cooperation (deep-sea oil) for a long time.

That is why I stated that one of the first contracts signed, if the new government is able to stabilize power, will be a fracking contract for SE Ukraine. 

[Anotherkiwi]

There is a naval base in Novorossiysk,  northeastern shore of the Black Sea:
However, Novorossiysk is not an ideal location because it does not have the natural deep sea harbour Sevastopol has, and the commercial port operations limit the available space.

Yes, I know - I've been there (not to the naval base, obviously!).

Looking at the map one can see a strategic  position of Crimea overlooking Black Sea.

That, of course, is far superior to having the nearest base an extra 400 or more kilometres (10-12 hours by sea?) away on the Krasnodarski coast.

[die_cast]

I realise that - how would Gelendzhik suit?  It appears to have a nicely-sheltered harbour, but is it too popular with tourists?  Or, a lot further north, what about Grimorsko-Ahtarsk (sp)?  If the Sea of Azov doesn't freeze over, and the big inlets from the sea can be dredged easily enough, it would seem to have huge potential, especially with an airport only a few kilometres away.

Gelendzhik is toutist area, no way there ever will be any base, it's bay is kind of dirty even without any ships. Azov Sea is shallow, forget about it.

[Anotherkiwi]

Gelendzhik is toutist area, no way there ever will be any base, it's bay is kind of dirty even without any ships. Azov Sea is shallow, forget about it.

Thank you - the possibilities are starting to dwindle!

[die_cast]

Thank you

You are welcome. 

[BC]

The Straits of Kerch, one side Crimea other Russia allows access to whole Sea of Azov area and River Don, so it is a strategic point since it would not take much from either side to block it off.

Over 24 years RU will probably save somewhere around 12 to 15 Billion in rental fees that were paid to UA.  Now gas prices for UA have been hiked to normal, non subsidized levels several Billion a year more revenue for RU.  Add not subsidizing UA proper (remember they already lost 15 Billion in loans from RU) and who knows how much in the future, It's hard to say that RU just went through the motions and just acquires a net loss in the end....

In fact, WMF seems to be setting up 18 BN in loans to UA much of which will end up in RU vaults anyway..

I think what both West and RU are debating is what happens if what remains of UA simply falls anyway.. even without interference from RU.  This will likely be the basis of future negotiations between EU, US and RU.

Despite all the media and western political spin, I'm convinced Putin is playing chess while the rest of the world thinks checkers.

[cc3]

Looking at the map one can see a strategic  position of Crimea overlooking Black Sea. 
Moscow plan to transfer  Tupolev Tu-22M3 'Backfire' long-range supersonic bombers to Crimea by 2016 as part of a build-up of maritime aviation assets:



From the Crimea, the Tu-22M3s in strike or reconnaissance roles will be able to support Russian naval tasks forces patrolling the Mediterranean Sea, including off the coast of Syria, and keep in check  possible NATO expansion in Ukraine.

Ancient aircraft; the design is almost 50 years old. Strategic, long-range nuclear bombers seem like overkill for Crimean base, when, for defense, agile, fighter-attack aircraft are what is needed. Tantamount to US basing strategic bombers in Poland and Baltic nations.

[Gator]

In fact, WMF seems to be setting up 18 BN in loans to UA much of which will end up in RU vaults anyway..

WMF?  Or IMF? 

The IMF aid requires Ukraine to raise the price consumers pay for energy.  So yes, UA will need energy which will come in the near future from RU and RU will be paid.  With this aid, the development of  alternative energy sources will begin.  It is already well underway in Europe.  So what are the implications for the long term, provided UA can turn the corner in the short term (a big "IF").