What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[BC]

WMF?  Or IMF? 

The IMF aid requires Ukraine to raise the price consumers pay for energy.  So yes, UA will need energy which will come in the near future from RU and RU will be paid.  With this aid, the development of  alternative energy sources will begin.  It is already well underway in Europe.  So what are the implications for the long term, provided UA can turn the corner in the short term (a big "IF").

oops, yes IMF

Forget alternative energy.. in EU there was a boom, but that was only due to subsidies.  Prices for PV panels dropped, production facilities were stopped to get prices back up a bit.  Electricity is needed less than gas when it comes to heating.  Alternative energy is left to the big guys, the power companies and large investors.. who wants to risk at this point?  But in the end it's either subsidies (tax burden) or the consumer that has to pay.  Along with gas prices, electricity prices must rise as well otherwise everyone will switch to heating with electricity instead and that would just totally overload their infrastructure.

Short term I believe both EU/West and RU will make arrangements to share the burden of helping UA get off it's knees. Both parties have interests involved.  If UA can start playing a totally different ballgame (which I doubt) it will remain independent.  If not, there will be an east/west split pre-arranged by both parties and we'll have WUA and EUA  This accounts for interest in making oblasts more independent.  We may find RU supporting eastern leaning oblasts and the west the rest.

There's a whole lot of negotiation to be done and it's just starting now.  First thing to watch for is when (not if) all sanctions against RU are lifted.  If that happens quickly (which I believe will) you will know who has the upper hand with the wheeling and dealing. 

Neither RU or EU wants to absorb what remains of UA.  It's simply too costly and in itself would only foment strife.  Putin already picked the cherry.

Lets just hope things move along quickly and jointly.. otherwise a whole bunch of folk in UA will be freezing their butts off come next winter.

[BC]

My tip to those living in UA, get a good wood stove and start stocking wood as high as you can.. prices for both will rise quickly if not already.

[Dewed]

My tip to everyone, tell your governments LOUDLY to quit preventing alternative energy sources like solar from becoming affordable.  The oligarchy wants to keep everyone hooked on oil. ENOUGH ALREADY !!!.. Ok, you can have the soapbox back now 

[BillyB]

Crimea may go back to Ukraine? Ex president Yanukovych was teary eyed during an interview stating it was his mistake in asking Russia to go into Crimea. Yanukovych states Crimea belongs to Ukraine and will ask Putin to give it back.


http://news.yahoo.com/ap-interview-yanukovych-wrong-crimea-161124219--finance.html


Here's my opinion on that article. Yanukovych is Putin's puppet and anything coming out of his mouth is what Putin has told him to say. Putin can't find a pro Russian contender for the presidency that can win it all so he brings back Yanukovych into play as Ukraine's legitimate president. By Yanukovych saying Crimea belongs to Ukraine and he disagrees with what Putin has done by annexing Ukraine, he becomes a more likable person among Ukrainians. He shows he can cry and admit his mistakes and some people will forgive. He won't win everybody's support but he will have less resistance from the Ukrainian citizens if Putin decides to put him back into power by force. Putin has a few options on the table and this is one of them.

[2tallbill]

Forget alternative energy..

I am thinking alternative energy in respect to home developed fossil
fuels as opposed to imports. If Ukraine develops some local energy
then they would have one less major drain on their economy.

I have no idea what the extent of Ukraine's fossil fuels are. I briefly
looked for it on Google, but didn't find anything.

[Belvis]

In regard to media covering political conflicts. The demotivator talks about Russian media but I think the message can be applied to US and Ukrainian national media as well.

If there is a call we'll do it (media of Russia)



YOU WANNA ALASKA?! OK, TAKE IT! But I warn you we'll impose sanctions on  5 more Russian officials!

[Gator]

I am thinking alternative energy in respect to home developed fossil
fuels as opposed to imports.

That was what I meant as well.  I used the term "alternative energy," which suggests Obama's renewable energy program, a huge waste of money so far.   Instead I should have used the term "alternative sources of conventional energy."

I have no idea what the extent of Ukraine's fossil fuels are. I briefly
looked for it on Google, but didn't find anything.

For a man working in the shale oil fields of North Dakota, you will be pleasantly surprised that Ukraine has two shale formations (one in the west and one in the east near the Russian border).   Neither is as large as the huge formations in the US, yet there is enough to prompt Chevron to enter into an agreement to develop the western field.  Upon reading Gazprom's position, recognizing that a majority of Russia's gas exports to Europe are piped through Ukraine, and considering some other factors:  one could assert that the Ukrainian-Russian conflict is more about energy and not Russia vs. Europe alignment.


http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/06/business/international/chevron-and-ukraine-sign-deal-on-shale-gas.html?_r=0

[BC]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine

UA is sitting on top of enough energy to feed themselves and more.

I think the main problem is that until now it was much much easier to just reap profits from selling cheap RU gas from allotments destined to domestic UA use to the west instead aside from a good percentage from the domestic market.

No work, no investments needed and at the low RU gas prices maybe not even economically feasible.

In essence, it seems UA cronies were being paid to ignore their own resources.

It will take a lot of time and money to develop their own resources, something BIG industry would like to do but given the economic and political atmosphere it would be like digging in a sand trap.

Again it's an economic balance, even if they could open up the taps to this large resource, prices would immediately fall.

The only short term solution is to decrease domestic demand by implementing energy saving measures.  It seems UA is one of the most inefficient users of energy around....  The typical consumer will be hit very hard, with many having to start paying for the gas they use.

What has happened thus far is likely nothing like what will happen when next winter hits.

The topic of energy in UA is a good one.. one that hits the very core of their problems including high level corruption.

[alex330]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine

UA is sitting on top of enough energy to feed themselves and more.

I think the main problem is that until now it was much much easier to just reap profits from selling cheap RU gas from allotments destined to domestic UA use to the west instead aside from a good percentage from the domestic market.

No work, no investments needed and at the low RU gas prices maybe not even economically feasible.

In essence, it seems UA cronies were being paid to ignore their own resources.

It will take a lot of time and money to develop their own resources, something BIG industry would like to do but given the economic and political atmosphere it would be like digging in a sand trap.

Again it's an economic balance, even if they could open up the taps to this large resource, prices would immediately fall.

The only short term solution is to decrease domestic demand by implementing energy saving measures.  It seems UA is one of the most inefficient users of energy around....  The typical consumer will be hit very hard, with many having to start paying for the gas they use.

What has happened thus far is likely nothing like what will happen when next winter hits.

The topic of energy in UA is a good one.. one that hits the very core of their problems including high level corruption.

Excellent post and right on the money.

I disagree with your earlier comment on forgetting alternative energy though. Unless you meant for the average Ukrainian citizen at this moment?

[BC]

Excellent post and right on the money.

I disagree with your earlier comment on forgetting alternative energy though. Unless you meant for the average Ukrainian citizen at this moment?

No, not forget, but forget it for now.  First it's a huge investment, second you need good infrastructure and agreements to sell your energy back to the utilities.

It would be great if the average citizen would be willing to install PV and solar water panels on their roofs..  Problem is that a majority live in high rises.. and those living in single homes or dachas would have to sit on their doorstep all night to keep someone else from just stealing them.

My programmers live outside of Donetsk in a good sized town..  folks steal the internet cables to sell for it's copper..  has happened a couple times over the last years.

So if you're an internet provider, you'll need mob connections and buy protection for your cables..  Just the way it is.

Not to say it does not happen elsewhere..  down in my area of Italy they put up thousands of solar powered light poles..  within six months most were stripped of the solar panels and batteries.

When evaluating options you have to try and get into the locale 'mindset' and not simply accept options that would work in your own country.  They may well not be viable elsewhere.

In any case alternative (renewable) energy in UA is likely not needed now.  They likely have enough electrical energy with all the nukes they have.  What they really need is gas to heat and cook with.  Panels and windmills will not help much there.

The HUGE challenge will be getting folks to pay real world prices for their utilities in the first place.  Until that is fixed no commercial enterprise will be interested in energy development unless solid payment guarantees are in place.. and right now who in UA is able to guarantee anything?...  Heck, even before this crisis UA was consistently behind paying even their greatly discounted bill for RU gas.. The big question is how in the heck are they going to do it now.....

Yep.. with your tax dollars or euros.

[BillyB]

YOU WANNA ALASKA?! OK, TAKE IT! But I warn you we'll impose sanctions on  5 more Russian officials!

I like that one. There is a petition going on at the White House right now to give Alaska back to Russia.

http://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/alaska-back-russia/SFG1ppfN


As some of you may have heard recently. Putin's divorce papers are final. There is a lesson to be learned here. Men should do better when it comes to pleasing their wives. When the wife asks you to bring home the cream, don't make the mistake and bring home the Crimea.

[jone]

Peggy Noonan writes for the Wall Street Journal.  Her article, which appears below, is an op/ed piece which gets the proper mood for what we're seeing now from a point of view of the Americans.  Those head scratchers out there still haven't figured out the big picture. 

'What would Reagan do?' is a series of thoughts that are the composite piece of new interaction between Russia and the Western World.  A good read.

http://blogs.wsj.com/peggynoonan/2014/04/02/russia-the-big-picture/

[Gator]

The topic of energy in UA is a good one.. one that hits the very core of their problems including high level corruption.

High level corruption or high level of corruption?

My little exposure to Ukraine suggests that corruption is everywhere, and to be that pervasive means that the highest level political leaders are the most corrupt. 

I dated a UW who had a luxury apartment, including a kitchen that would the dream of any wife of a successful American businessman.  She received it when divorcing her ex-husband, a district attorney.  Makes you wonder how many top level criminals had a deal with him.   In Egypt at a resort full of Russians,  I met the chief of police for a large Ukrainian city.  He spoke English and asked me about the Florida real estate market.  I initially thought he wanted to buy a house.  He was talking about buying a beachfront high rise condo building (not unit) under construction.   

So if these third level politicians are doing that well, what is happening at the top level?  Here's a clue:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2571408/New-pictures-eye-opening-opulence-ousted-Ukrainian-president-Yanukovichs-palace-sprawling-estate-tourist-attraction.html


And who of them will allow such power to be taken away by government reforms? 

[jone]

High level corruption or high level of corruption?

My little exposure to Ukraine suggests that corruption is everywhere, and to be that pervasive means that the highest level political leaders are the most corrupt. 

I dated a UW who had a luxury apartment, including a kitchen that would the dream of any wife of a successful American businessman.  She received it when divorcing her ex-husband, a district attorney.  Makes you wonder how many top level criminals had a deal with him.   In Egypt at a resort full of Russians,  I met the chief of police for a large Ukrainian city.  He spoke English and asked me about the Florida real estate market.  I initially thought he wanted to buy a house.  He was talking about buying a beachfront high rise condo building (not unit) under construction.   

So if these third level politicians are doing that well, what is happening at the top level?  Here's a clue:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2571408/New-pictures-eye-opening-opulence-ousted-Ukrainian-president-Yanukovichs-palace-sprawling-estate-tourist-attraction.html


And who of them will allow such power to be taken away by government reforms?

Unfortunately, Gator, I tend to agree with your analysis.

[Muzh]

I dated a UW who had a luxury apartment, including a kitchen that would the dream of any wife of a successful American businessman. 
 

Did you know that most renowned chefs are male? But it is the little woman who needs the kitchen, right?
 
Anyway, back to what BC was saying there was some perspective offered by Thomas Friedman the other day about the geoplitics of money.
 

Putin runs a petro state. If it were not for the growth in the global market that globalization created and the energy revenues that it produces for Russia, Putin and the oligarchs who form his power base would be living off exports of vodka and caviar. Putin can’t survive without the revenues globalization provides him to buy off his people and former Soviet republics.
 
And that tells us how to “end Putinism,” says Mandelbaum, “which would be good not only for the world, but also, and especially, for Russia. The tools are primarily economic: denying Russian oligarchs access to the Western financial system and reducing the energy revenues flowing into Putin’s coffers.”
 

Follow the Money

[BillyB]

American and NATO troops headed to Ukraine for exercises in a few months. If Putin wants to do something, he better do it quick. Ukraine joining the West has accelerated.


http://news.yahoo.com/russian-pm-medvedev-visits-crimea-reports-075219445.html

[fathertime]

American and NATO troops headed to Ukraine for exercises in a few months. If Putin wants to do something, he better do it quick. Ukraine joining the West has accelerated.


http://news.yahoo.com/russian-pm-medvedev-visits-crimea-reports-075219445.html

As I've been harping on, if Russia was interested in governing all of Ukraine, they would have already moved weeks ago.  They have done what they set out to do which was to permanently control the ports in Crimea. 


In other news, I see the USA was covertly trying to foment and create unrest in Cuba.  Our nation's foreign policy is incredibly hypocritical.  I'm not clear on why we NEED to be doing this sort of thing in Cuba or Ukraine.  Let Cuba do what is doing.  It is not up to us to try to force regime change. We have plenty of pressing things to attend to in our own country.   


Fathertime!     

[GQBlues]

As I've been harping on, if Russia was interested in governing all of Ukraine, they would have already moved weeks ago.  They have done what they set out to do which was to permanently control the ports in Crimea. 


In other news, I see the USA was covertly trying to foment and create unrest in Cuba.  Our nation's foreign policy is incredibly hypocritical.  I'm not clear on why we NEED to be doing this sort of thing in Cuba or Ukraine.  Let Cuba do what is doing.  It is not up to us to try to force regime change. We have plenty of pressing things to attend to in our own country. 

Add Venezuela.

Assassination attempts aren't new with our beloved country. In 1985, they failed at trying to assassinate Ayatollah Fadlallah, then spiritual leader of the Hezbollah, known to be responsible for the bombing of the marine barracks in Beirut. They tried to do it with a car bomb, in the same fashion we demonize extremists when they do it. It killed over 80 innocent people and injured and maimed over 200.

What made that attempt even worst than it was, was the fact the guy they tried to kill was someone else and was an abominable case of mistaken identity.

In the aftermath of that attack, surviving locals held up a sign along the blown-out building structures with dead bodies still laying around that read: *Made in USA*.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Beirut_car_bombing

[BillyB]

As I've been harping on, if Russia was interested in governing all of Ukraine, they would have already moved weeks ago.  They have done what they set out to do which was to permanently control the ports in Crimea. 

Our NATO allies surrounding Ukraine don't agree. Many have and are still asking America to do training exercises with them and park our troops in their country. These countries have had their world turned upside down in the past by Russia. They're not going to gamble everything on a hunch that all Putin wants is Crimea. My hunch tells me Putin will get everything he can as long as he can get away with it. That is logical, after all, he has tens of thousands of troops on the border of Ukraine and covert agents working inside Ukraine right now.

In other news, I see the USA was covertly trying to foment and create unrest in Cuba.  Our nation's foreign policy is incredibly hypocritical.

I don't see our foreign policy as good or evil. Cuba has done whatever they could get away with to undermine our country. If they could park nukes in their country, they'd do that too. Ever since Castro took power, he stole land that American citizens have bought and didn't reimburse them. I can accept America taking action to make Castro's life more uncomfortable. Castro should've been happy we never took him out by force.

Add Venezuela.

Assassination attempts aren't new with our beloved country. In 1985, they failed at trying to assassinate Ayatollah Fadlallah, then spiritual leader of the Hezbollah, known to be responsible for the bombing of the marine barracks in Beirut. They tried to do it with a car bomb, in the same fashion we demonize extremists when they do it. It killed over 80 innocent people and injured and maimed over 200.

The thing people overlook is America reacts to bad behavior, not initiate it. Expecting perfection out of humans and America is silly. Accidents happen. America will have a few critics no matter what. Can't please everyone. If countries don't like America's foreign policy, they can do business with someone else. So far I see many countries asking America for help and to base our troops on their land for security reasons. Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries have our troops there to protect their oil. Who better to trust? Who has a better reputation than America? America can't accommodate everyone though and we have had to turn down some nation's requests. Because America takes action against the thugs of the world, many nations respect us. Our foreign policy is working better than anybody else's and is fine but if we become too passive, that will be the beginning of the end for us. Based on what I see in today's world, I doubt there's anybody out there with the guts to come to our rescue. Enjoy the fact you're currently living in the most powerful nation in the world that's well respected and a good life. Our future generations may not be so lucky.

[tfcrew]

 

Young Vladimir






Young Barack





Racer Vlad





Racer Barack






Colonel Putin






Oh well

[fathertime]

I don't see our foreign policy as good or evil. Cuba has done whatever they could get away with to undermine our country. If they could park nukes in their country, they'd do that too. Ever since Castro took power, he stole land that American citizens have bought and didn't reimburse them. I can accept America taking action to make Castro's life more uncomfortable. Castro should've been happy we never took him out by force.

 

ACTUALLY, we armed Bautista's forces against Castro...Eventually despite our meddling Castro won out anyway...then we started making demands to Castro with the threat of overthrowing him if he did not do as we said....he basically said Eff-U....So now we try to isolate Cuba. 


We should not have gotten involved in the Cuban revolution.....while many are making parallels to Hitler, For me I make the parallel to places like Cuba as it pertains to the fomenting of revolution.. There is NO NEED for us to stick our snout in another country's  business.  I just read that we are now WARNING Russia not to raise their price of gas to Ukraine...Just who the hell are we to tell Russia what they can and can't charge for THEIR gas?  So it is OK for our nation to use financial warfare, but when Russia plays one of their cards we wag our finger and warn them not to...what a joke... I still believe we should tone down our public involvement.  Crimea is a part of Russia now, and our 'representatives' are hypocrites for crying foul...given what we have done.


Fathertime!   

[BillyB]

ACTUALLY, we armed Bautista's forces against Castro

Castro should be happy we didn't keep arming people to go after him and take him out by force. Fathertime, if someone stole your property and planted bombs next to your house, I would not feel any sympathy for the guy if you blew his head off. After Ghaddafi took part in the murder of civilians in downing a passenger jet, Reagan bombed Libya. I didn't feel any sympathy for the Libyans then.

There is NO NEED for us to stick our snout in another country's  business.

Earlier I posted a link showing China is currently trying to expand it's borders at some islands starving Filipinos using military force. If the Russians can do it with little penalties, China felt they can do it too. America is now sticking it's nose in China's business and telling them not to pull a Crimea. If not America, who will stop countries from expanding their borders? In history, real estate always changes hands. Do we take a passive stance and allow these things to happen or should we enforce international laws because nobody else seems capable?


http://news.yahoo.com/u-warns-china-not-attempt-crimea-style-action-235759479.html

[jone]

ACTUALLY, we armed Bautista's forces against Castro...Eventually despite our meddling Castro won out anyway...then we started making demands to Castro with the threat of overthrowing him if he did not do as we said....he basically said Eff-U....So now we try to isolate Cuba. 


We should not have gotten involved in the Cuban revolution.....while many are making parallels to Hitler, For me I make the parallel to places like Cuba as it pertains to the fomenting of revolution.. There is NO NEED for us to stick our snout in another country's  business.  I just read that we are now WARNING Russia not to raise their price of gas to Ukraine...Just who the hell are we to tell Russia what they can and can't charge for THEIR gas?  So it is OK for our nation to use financial warfare, but when Russia plays one of their cards we wag our finger and warn them not to...what a joke... I still believe we should tone down our public involvement.  Crimea is a part of Russia now, and our 'representatives' are hypocrites for crying foul...given what we have done.


Fathertime!

Links please.`

[BC]

Links please.`

http://news.yahoo.com/us-warns-russia-against-gas-hikes-hurt-ukraine-181319430.html

Even if they want to charge UA higher rates than they do EU, that's fine.. UA can always buy gas from EU at market rates..

After all, they owe RU over 2 Billion.

It's quite similar to banks charging higher interest rates for customers with lower credit scores.. or a store offering a discount when items are bought with cash.

Question again remains economic... who wants to sell gas to UA without guarantees?

That's the bottom line.

[andrewfi]

Links please.`

The United States supplied Batista with planes, ships, tanks, and the latest technology, such as napalm, which he used against the insurgency. However, in March 1958, the U.S. announced it would stop selling arms to the Cuban government.^[64] Soon after, the U.S. imposed an arms embargo, further weakening the government's position,^[65] although land owners and others who benefited from the government continued to support Batista.^[26]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fulgencio_Batista