What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[Muzh]

Nah man, I don't want anyone to kiss my buttocks.  I just like getting under your skin.  That is thanks in itself.   

Aww, that was so lame.
 
C'mon, give it another try. 

[fathertime]

Is it safe to watch?

 


I dare you...go ahead....I dare you.


Fathertime! 

[southernX]

FT ,

russias movements of troops and there buildup along the entire east border with ukraine is going to be one of two things,

it could be the defensive posturing , but in reality , if that was so it is far more likely to be more concentrated in the south east, closer to crimea,

no other civilised country is going to invade russia in the north east, kharkiv has masses of rusky troops just 50 km away , over the border in belgorod , this isnt defence it is more likely waiting in the wings for the right trip /spark to move across into ukraine to ''SAVE '' the ethnc russians there , who by and large probably dont want it

with so much corruption abound within regional govs, it is difficult to make a proper reading of which way this will go , but just one major incident within an s/east oblast will very probably set the russian army westwards,
i have no doubt  putin is mercilessly calculating , he has no better time than now or the very near future to make this move , if he chooses to ,

if he waits, he might lose the momentum/moment
ukraine will hold elctions and new gov will have unquestioned legitimacy, , now he can posture the gov doesnt , regardless of fact below

http://khpg.org.ua/en/index.php?id=1395358623

ukraine will if it recovers economicaly , boost its defences , have no doubt about that , it may join NATO ,
 
now it is vulnerable , it has no gaurantee of military help with troops etc from any third party, now or the very near future is putins moment when ukraine is at its most vulnerable , and parts of moldova, right across to take it all back as far as he can push ,
 
and dont forget putin still has yanukovich , as his puppet to restore ''legitimalty if he wishes to use him, remember yano wrote to the duma asking for their help to retake his position /country , ? yanu spent time after he left kiev in crimea, what hand did he have in that play ??   how affiliated is he with the new prime minister aksanov [goblin ] in crimea, ??
did they meet and plan in crimea ??  both have east mafia bases /connections ?

the EU/US have indicated their lack of will to get deeply involved and are prepared to sacrifice ukraine to save their economys, putin know this only too well
 ,
he has waited to get total control of crimea, all ukraine bases shut down ,forces removed , weapons in his control ,  no small resistance internally within crimea to cause any issues ,

all the chess pieces are in place to make the move, now /soon imho
question is will putin sieze his oppurtunity ? will he use yanukovich to front it when he does and where will it start ?

SX

fatthertime , my posts from march 24th  ,

putin  is moving his chess pieces nicely dont you think to achieve his aim of taking/ controling ukraine ?

[fathertime]

fatthertime , my posts from march ,

putin  is moving his chess pieces nicely dont you think to achieve his aim of taking/ controling ukraine ?

Hey SX,


I think Russia is doing what they can to gain from the situation.  They already secured Crimea and I think that was the main objective...if the divisions within Ukraine prove to be deep enough there could be further splintering although I'd say no other parts will be annexed by Russia.  What do you think?   
I'm still holding to the position that the troops are not an invasion force (like many insisted weeks ago), but obviously they are there for a reason or two.


Thanks,
Fathertime!   

[Larry1]

I'm still holding to the position that the troops are not an invasion force (like many insisted weeks ago), but obviously they are there for a reason or two.

Thanks,
Fathertime!

You took a risk when you said Putin will not invade yet another part of Ukraine. Take a lesson from Andrewfi: don't make a prediction that you cannot weasel out from when it turns out to be incorrect.

[southernX]

[quote ] think Russia is doing what they can to gain from the situation. [/quote]

imho they are actively fuelling/destabilising  the situation , intent on total control of ukraine in any way they can ,

They already secured Crimea and I think that was the main objective

nah , crimea with  the s/east of ukraine minimal across to moldova is his aim , always has been imo

if the divisions within Ukraine prove to be deep enough there could be further splintering although I'd say no other parts will be annexed by Russia.  What do you think?   

as he is helping to splinter with his orchestrated campaign of propoganda /fear, destabilisation , military threat and posturing , economical suffocation /obstruction he has a very good chance of breaking ukraine up
however he will win whichever way it goes imo ,

if he cant gain total control with his militia,[ just waiting for some bloodshed now to occur , any conflict will have him move troops across the border within 40 mins of these cities]


then he still gets to sit in on the political discussion on how to resolve /change ukraine , even when he is the main player in causing the issues ,
how can it be he is getting his head in the talk fest as a peace negotiater when he has been the main antagonist ??
thus he will push his agenda , ukraine will be broken by him , one way or another , sooner or later

SX

[fathertime]

You took a risk when you said Putin will not invade yet another part of Ukraine. Take a lesson from Andrewfi: don't make a prediction that you cannot weasel out from when it turns out to be incorrect.

Ha!  I don't know andrewifi....but I have no intention of weaseling out of the prediction if it were to wind up being wrong.  I'm reasonably sure it won't be though...on the other side of the aisle I'm enjoying reading the partial weasel maneuvers or disappearance of those that were certain of a large invasion force.  A few are coming to the realization that they were probably incorrect. It isn't like they can claim Obama's tough sanctions and threats deterred  a military invasion...but it is all cool, I'd only give somebody a hard time if they were trying to give me a hard time first...I never claimed to be an expert (like some constantly imply), but some moves seem obvious at least from my perspective...and others seem like a catastrophe in the making if they were to occur.   


Fathertime!   

[Muzh]

Hey SX,


I think Russia is doing what they can to gain from the situation.  They already secured Crimea and I think that was the main objective...if the divisions within Ukraine prove to be deep enough there could be further splintering although I'd say no other parts will be annexed by Russia.  What do you think?   
I'm still holding to the position that the troops are not an invasion force (like many insisted weeks ago), but obviously they are there for a reason or two.


Thanks,
Fathertime!

First 
 
Then 
 
You CANNOT be that clueless.
 
Do you think that 40,000 troops and materiel appear out of nowhere and maintains by itself? And for what? To say: Look at me. I'm so pretty? Maybe in your world when you ask this all the time.
 
okay, let's try and play your game.
 
Seriously, what is the reason or two that Putler has the troops amassed on Ukraine's eastern flank? Use sound judgement when answering the question.
 
Not expecting a real answer.

[fathertime]

First 
 
Then 
 
You CANNOT be that clueless.
 
Do you think that 40,000 troops and materiel appear out of nowhere and maintains by itself? And for what? To say: Look at me. I'm so pretty? Maybe in your world when you ask this all the time.
 
okay, let's try and play your game.
 
Seriously, what is the reason or two that Putler has the troops amassed on Ukraine's eastern flank? Use sound judgement when answering the question.
 
Not expecting a real answer.

Well Sunshine we can TRY to see if it is possible to exchange viewpoints without being insulting...
Why does Russia have 40K troops sitting near the border?  Reasonable question.


1st...I don't believe it is for an invasion, that is NOT going to happen. IMO


2nd...the troops do provide a credible threat of invasion, intimidation...


3rd...if the goal is to influence what is going on in Ukraine, they are serving a purpose for Russia....it shows that Russia is serious...No other nation's forces have been brought in, and I believe the reason is those Russian troops parked there are a huge deterrent.


4th...Was there an obvious buildup for weeks/months before Russia took over Crimea? I don't recall, but I think not.  Russia would not have waited if this was an invasion force, it would have been done already. 


There you go...I produced a response without any BS...If you can do the same we will have a discussion...I will mirror your response.


Fathertime! 

[Muzh]

Well Sunshine we can TRY to see if it is possible to exchange viewpoints without being insulting...
Why does Russia have 40K troops sitting near the border?  Reasonable question.

Doubt it loverboy.
 
However, hot from the press:
 

Russia’s clear and unmistakable involvement in destabilizing and engaging in separatist activities in the east of Ukraine is more than deeply disturbing. No one should be fooled, and believe me, no one is fooled by what could potentially be a contrived pretext for military intervention just as we saw in Crimea. It is clear that Russian special forces and agents have been the catalyst behind the chaos of the last 24 hours. Some have even been arrested and exposed. And equally as clear must be the reality that the United States and our allies will not hesitate to use 21^st-century tools to hold Russia accountable for 19^th-century behavior. We have stated again and again that our preference – and the preference of our friends and allies – is de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. But Russia should not for a single solitary second mistake the expression of that preference as an unwillingness to do what is necessary to stop any violation of the international order.
 

SoS
 
 

1st...I don't believe it is for an invasion, that is NOT going to happen. IMO


2nd...the troops do provide a credible threat of invasion, intimidation...


3rd...if the goal is to influence what is going on in Ukraine, they are serving a purpose for Russia....it shows that Russia is serious...No other nation's forces have been brought in, and I believe the reason is those Russian troops parked there are a huge deterrent.


4th...Was there an obvious buildup for weeks/months before Russia took over Crimea? I don't recall, but I think not.  Russia would not have waited if this was an invasion force, it would have been done already.

1) Wrong
2) DUH!
3) Wrong
4) Wrong
 
I have no idea where you get your info. RT maybe? Anyway, you may want to argue with the Secretary of State and tell him he is worrying unnecessarily. Chill out babe.

There you go...I produced a response without any BS...If you can do the same we will have a discussion...I will mirror your response.

If you think you did me a favor, think again.
 
Now it is my turn to say it. Just because you do not like the way I say things I have to STFU or change to please you.

[fathertime]

Doubt it loverboy.
 
However, hot from the press:
 
SoS
 
 
1) Wrong
2) DUH!
3) Wrong
4) Wrong
 
I have no idea where you get your info. RT maybe? Anyway, you may want to argue with the Secretary of State and tell him he is worrying unnecessarily. Chill out babe.

 
If you think you did me a favor, think again.
 
Now it is my turn to say it. Just because you do not like the way I say things I have to STFU or change to please you.

 By all means speak your piece…as was mentioned, the tenor will be mirrored so whatever suits your fancy I can live with just fine.

The testimony John Kerry gave did not address the specific question you asked about the buildup of Russian troops.   To this point, your reply was more like a game show response, nothing substantive and nothing original from you.   The facts on the ground remain, the troops are not moving despite what many said was going to happen weeks ago…in addition no other country has dared intervene too vigorously with that threat stationed there...  I feel the point I've been making is being borne out on the ground...

Fathertime!

[Muzh]

 By all means speak your piece…as was mentioned, the tenor will be mirrored so whatever suits your fancy I can live with just fine.

Just a simple question.
 
You are married to some Colombiana and you have no desire to go to the former Soyuz looking for a babe.
 
Now, what was your purpose of coming here to start discussions that are very dear to those who have family in the former Soyuz?
 
Is it that you are a hired gun or are you a self-appointed marshal of the truth? Do you go cruising forums to rectify (your perceived) wrongs?
 
Is this you?
 

 
Just curious.

[fathertime]

Just a simple question.
 
You are married to some Colombiana and you have no desire to go to the former Soyuz looking for a babe.
 
Now, what was your purpose of coming here to start discussions that are very dear to those who have family in the former Soyuz?
 
Is it that you are a hired gun or are you a self-appointed marshal of the truth? Do you go cruising forums to rectify (your perceived) wrongs?
 
Is this you?
 

 
Just curious.

I’m not going to satisfy your curiosity at this time, because it is unimportant to me.  It would appear you are avoiding discussing the topic of the Russian troops which YOU brought up today.  I’m not important (personally), the viewpoint is what is at issue.  The facts on the ground are not supporting your viewpoint, at this time, imo. [size=78%]   [/size]


Fathertime!   

[jone]

As the Russian mouthpieces continue to make their way into areas of the country that seem to be up for grabs, the pushback is beginning to take form.  A new national battlecry is forming in the throats of Ukrainians that do not want to be part of Russia.  In the background of the following tape, you can hear them chanting "Chemodan (Suitcase) - Vokzal ('train' Station) - Russiya (Russia)".  This location for this tape is Mykolaiv, about eight blocks from where I lived this summer.  The Party of Regions candidate for President was so frustrated that he told them all that the 'New Order' was coming and that they would all be ashamed for having behaved like this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vFxZyvBy1u0

As a following thought:  Putinistas attacked a government building three nights ago and were repelled by Ukrainian loyalists.  The Presidential candidate was attempting to see those injured at the hospital that were on his side of the fray.

[southernX]

The facts on the ground are not supporting your viewpoint, at this time, imo.

FT

fact is the facts on the ground actually support the theory of an invasion force poised at the ready ,

as it has been pointed out time and again , putin is trying to make the spark to legally legitimise his ordering them across the border,
to date he hasnt had the same success as in crimea , purely because of the differign local factors that are fluctuating on the ground in the s/eastern cities and the ukraines gov /peoples understanding /resolve of what he is trying to orchestrate

so far under extreme circumstances the new gov is making a resonable fist of keeping the spark putin would like to a min, no major violent confrontations , no bloodshed of significance,


like muzh , we have close family in this , and it is very emotional to watch what is happening

putins aim is to light the spark any way he can , ukraines aim is to keep the whole situation dampened down , to stop his spark from igniting and becoming a civil war bushfire ,

SX 

[fathertime]

FT

fact is the facts on the ground actually support the theory of an invasion force poised at the ready ,

as it has been pointed out time and again , putin is trying to make the spark to legally legitimise his ordering them across the border,
to date he hasnt had the same success as in crimea , purely because of the differign local factors that are fluctuating on the ground in the s/eastern cities and the ukraines gov /peoples understanding /resolve of what he is trying to orchestrate

so far under extreme circumstances the new gov is making a resonable fist of keeping the spark putin would like to a min, no major violent confrontations , no bloodshed of significance,

 

putins aim is to light the spark any way he can , ukraines aim is to keep the whole situation dampened down , to stop his spark from igniting and becoming a civil war bushfire ,

SX

Hey SX...I don't see it that way...we will find out very soon though because when the Ukrainian authorities retake those buildings, it is probably going to get ugly and I'd say there will be some dead Russian supporters bodies on the ground when it is over....  I don't think that will prompt movement from the soldiers though.  One thing that I think would prompt movement is if foreign forces get involved, but I don't foresee that happening.   


Fathertime!   

[BillyB]

we will find out very soon though because when the Ukrainian authorities retake those buildings, it is probably going to get ugly and I'd say there will be some dead Russian supporters bodies on the ground

I think Putin expects that because he creates the scenarios for that to happen. Ukrainian authorities must take back the government buildings to prepare for elections and create a safe environment for voters and UN monitors.


If Pro Russians were the majority in Ukraine, all Putin has to do is step back and let Ukraine elect another pro Russian president. Pro Russian citizens were never the majority in Ukraine. With UN monitors on their way to make sure the election is fair, it's annex time for Putin. If he doesn't try to annex before the election, he's still holding Yanukovych as a wild card. Notices Yanukovych popping up once every week or two so we don't forget about him?

[southernX]

With UN monitors on their way to make sure the election is fair, it's annex time for Putin. If he doesn't try to annex before the election, he's still holding Yanukovych as a wild card. Notices Yanukovych popping up once every week or two so we don't forget about him?

yes , iv thought the same billy, yanu i being coveted in russia , not because putin likes him , but he still might be able to use him

putins window is closing fast , so if he moves his troops it will be soon ,
first though he HAS GOT TO LIGHT THE SPARK enought to justify it , luckily so far , he has been unable to

lets hope it stays that way

SX

[fathertime]

I think Putin expects that because he creates the scenarios for that to happen. Ukrainian authorities must take back the government buildings to prepare for elections and create a safe environment for voters and UN monitors.

Hey Billyb,


that is an interesting thought...if what you are saying is true about Putin creating the situation that is about to erupt soon in those buildings it would then stand to reason that the troops parked nearby would then jump the border and get involved.  Although a lot of things indicate that would happen, i don't think so...I'm sure there is some strategy to exploit coming from Russia but I don't think an invasion is happening regardless of what it looks like. we shall soon see.

If Pro Russians were the majority in Ukraine, all Putin has to do is step back and let Ukraine elect another pro Russian president. Pro Russian citizens were never the majority in Ukraine. With UN monitors on their way to make sure the election is fair, it's annex time for Putin. If he doesn't try to annex before the election, he's still holding Yanukovych as a wild card. Notices Yanukovych popping up once every week or two so we don't forget about him?

I don't think there is enough 'pro Russians' in greater Ukraine to elect a Russian-leaning leader.  I'd say Putin is willing to accept that he took Crimea and if the rest of Ukraine goes bye-bye he will live with it...if there is no e-ukraine/w-ukraine division. I think a lot of people think he can't accept that, but I think he can. 


Fathertime!   


 

[JohnDearGreen]

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/how-to-stalk-eastern-separatists-online-342428.html

[BillyB]

if what you are saying is true about Putin creating the situation that is about to erupt soon in those buildings it would then stand to reason that the troops parked nearby would then jump the border and get involved.

Russian troops may not need to get involved in east Ukraine if the protestors screw up the soon to be Ukrainian election and vote themselves over to Russia. Russia has and continues to state it has no intentions of invading Ukraine but reserves the right to protect Russian citizens. If it gets too bloody, they will send over the troops. Unlike Obama who says there will be serious costs and doesn't keep his word, Putin will keep his word.


After Yanukovych was thrown out of power, east Ukrainians didn't take to the streets then as they are now. Russia sent agents into Ukraine to motivate them to protest. With 40,000+ Russian troops nearby that got their backs, a protestor may feel empowered much more now than after the earlier revolution.


Russia's foreign policy consists of keeping NATO as far away as possible. It's no secret they want all Ukraine and then some. I'm sure the West will give them east Ukraine with little punishment. Putin won't be able to get west Ukrainians to riot. He'll have to use force there or more likely bring back Yanukovych as the legitimate president to rule the land again after east Ukraine is annexed. When Russian troops move into east Ukraine, Kiev will be next door. Ukrainians have little say in their future and how their country is carved up.

[calmissile]

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/how-to-stalk-eastern-separatists-online-342428.html

Very interesting!   I wonder how FT will try and spin this one.   

[fathertime]

Very interesting!   I wonder how FT will try and spin this one.   

 Calmissile, why would I try to ‘spin’ or dispute anything he has posted?  I don’t disagree with every aspect of what is being said, but I do question some items that don’t make sense to me.  You don’t need to accept these points obviously: 
My main points thus far are:
1.        The US shouldn’t be getting too involved in this struggle.
2.       The Russian troops massed on the border are not going to attack and were placed there for a different reason.
3.       If/when the dust finally settles this will be a win-win.
I still see no reason to move away from any of these points at this juncture.


Fathertime!   

[southernX]

My main points thus far are:
1.        The US shouldn’t be getting too involved in this struggle.

if that is the case then the US should not be asking sovereign countrys to give up nuclear weapons for their defence, & signing memorandums to protect them etc etc
shameless moral squirming going on by anyone who trys to pretend what was understood /agreed to when this budapest was signed imho

My main points thus far are:

2.       The Russian troops massed on the border are not going to attack and were placed there for a different reason.
 

ok what reason ??
no one is going to attack russia ?? the EU/US /NATO have stated that emphatically ,
so who would ??ukraine ?? nah , not ever,
so they are not even acting as a deterent as all of the above said they would not use forces

russia put them there, as a clear option for use if the right situation arose to take advantage of having them on standby , plain as day that is putins no 1 option on having them there , his second option is to cause destabilisation /intimidation with them , its working !!  both on ukraine and on the US/EU/NATO 

My main points thus far are:
3.       If/when the dust finally settles this will be a win-win.
I still see no reason to move away from any of these points at this juncture.

FT how in the name of christ do you see this as a win win ??
  who is wining here ?/

crimea, nah dont think so , give them time and it will become clear they are not , who else
ukraine ??  yep the price hike on gas is awinner for the average person , having protesters on all your citys squares with ethnic tension between citizens who lived together peacefully only a few months ago , thats  a winner ?? 

having your big  brother country help to suffocate you with all his strength , as well as destabilising your country he wishes to use propoganda etc to choke you into fearfull submission, 

where is the WIN ?? only for putin at present

you have lost me in your logic,

can you explain your scenario just a bit more so we can see where your coming from ??

SX

[fathertime]

you have lost me in your logic,

can you explain your scenario just a bit more so we can see where your coming from ??

SX

Hey SX,
 
I don’t think that Russia would put those babies out there in a situation where they really can’t win…imo it would be a blunder to invade parts of Ukraine…I believe something will be worked out before it gets to that point…I believe those troops are a piece of the negotiation. 
US involvement….yeah it is being shown that countries should look out for their own defense.  If it comes down to nuclear armed countries in a confrontation over a small patch of land where things are a bit murky, nobody is going to risk going to conventional war over it…I can completely understand why nations are trying like hell to get a nuclear weapon…had Ukraine kept a few this probably would have been different…the rest of the world is learning a lesson if they didn't already know it.   
Win-win….i don’t think the people will win….they hardly ever do….but yeah in the end I think Russia will have a win…and what remains of Ukraine will have a win…russia has crimea (a win)...Ukraine will move towards west which is apparently what they would like to do.
 
These opinions are unpopular here, but I hope that explains some of where I was coming from.  If what I say is a bunch of bull it won't be long before the facts on the ground prove me wrong...but I don't think that will be the case. 


Fathertime!