What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[GQBlues]

...I am able to find on news more info about aviation but unable to confirm from more reliable sources if tanks and military vehicles shown in videos really heading to Europe.

MissA-

The reality in this, IMO, is...all of Ukraine's military equipment are remnants from the Soviet-era technology. FWIW, is pretty much outdated. More importantly, Russia is fully aware of its capabilities, quantity and more than likely - the current condition of each piece. After all, most of this will be information generally available from the pro-Russian Ukraine nationals.

The only chance Ukraine has of countering current Russian military ware is getting imports largely from the US, and in smaller measure, the EU. But the actual chances of that happening is slim to none. I know our current political leadership aren't the sharpest tools in the shed but it will be highly foolish to 'give' Ukraine top line military equipment for her defense because that'll be akin to giving away 'classified' technological advantage the US may have militarily knowing the kinship between Ukraine/Russia.

But if McCain does again what McCain is good at - blindly and idiotically give away advance weaponry to anyone whom he feels need it e.g. like Al Qaeda for instance; then maybe Ukraine can 'prolong' a war against Russia maybe a week. Plus or minus a day or so (if a war breaks-out).

As for the EU, the sentiment there is (as is the case in Germany, erm...Merkel's homebase), sanctions against Russia is generally disfavored by its citizenry (see protest against sanctions)- much less contributing to or assisting with, military incursion. But trust me on this, they'll readily and happily reap whatever they can milk out of Ukraine whether directly through Ukraine's government or by Russian hand-out (to the victor goes the spoil). They're a pretty smart bunch about these things, you know.

In short, even if Ukraine gets equipment from the US/Internationally, it'll very likely be generally outdated weaponry. They'll be equal to, or less than, what Ukraine already have on hand.

Just my opinion...Ukraine have a much better chance of diplomatically dealing with Russia directly and save much of its country and citizenry and shun the west altogether. One way or another, the EU will suck Ukraine's gas anyway whether Ukraine is intact or otherwise.

This article from the Guardian is one of the very few to come out of the western media that actually makes sense in some of the aspects of this crisis.
 

[Anotherkiwi]

This article from the Guardian is one of the very few to come out of the western media that actually makes sense in some of the aspects of this crisis.

But have you read the comments that follow?     I honestly can't believe that there is so much tripe out there, much of it (apparently) from people living in the US or UK.  It's actually truly frightening to realise that so many people must actually believe what they've written.

[fathertime]

This article from the Guardian is one of the very few to come out of the western media that actually makes sense in some of the aspects of this crisis.
 

I agree with almost every word of this article.  good find!

But if McCain does again what McCain is good at - blindly and idiotically give away advance weaponry to anyone whom he feels need it e.g. like Al Qaeda for instance; then maybe Ukraine can 'prolong' a war against Russia maybe a week. Plus or minus a day or so (if a war breaks-out).

Thankfully McCain is losing his clout all the time...I think...

Just my opinion...Ukraine have a much better chance of diplomatically dealing with Russia directly and save much of its country and citizenry and shun the west altogether. One way or another, the EU will suck Ukraine's gas anyway whether Ukraine is intact or otherwise.
 
 

This is what I also think the leaders of Ukraine should be focusing on, when the election finally does take place....Russia doesn't want to occupy mainland Ukraine (if they did, they would have already taken it)...but they do want a friendly neighbor, AND the west to stay out....don't blame them...of course this is just my opinion, in trying to look at the situation from Russia's perspective.


Fathertime!   

[BillyB]

Russia doesn't want to occupy mainland Ukraine (if they did, they would have already taken it)...but they do want a friendly neighbor,

Fathertime, Russia is occupying mainland Ukraine, not as much as what is predicted to be in the future but they are there. If Russian operatives can initiate a rigged election like in Crimea, Russia will happily annex Ukraine instead of letting them be a friendly neighbor. Putin, in his speeches, never mentions east Ukraine anymore. He calls the area New Russia.


MissAmeno's brother and his unit are on high alert multiple times a night every night. Russia is currently depriving sleep to Ukrainian troops exhausting them so that if they do decide to invade, they will have another added advantage. Putin is not taking anything off the table when it comes to covert operations to start a civil war or military options based off his current actions.

I honestly can't believe that there is so much tripe out there, much of it (apparently) from people living in the US or UK.  It's actually truly frightening to realise that so many people must actually believe what they've written.

People are entitled to their opinion just like the author and that is more fuel for Putin to continue to do what he's doing. People sympathize with Putin and feels he has a right to enter into someone else's home and claim it as his own. The more actions Putin takes, the more support from citizens of Russia he gets too. It's at 80% right now and Putin knows it'll climb higher if he takes more of Ukraine.


Let's be real. There's less than one month before elections and Russia has east Ukraine in a mess. There were no problems there before Crimea. After Putin was done in Crimea, that's when he started problems there. Now, international observers are getting held hostage. How are they going to monitor elections if they are taken hostage? Putin won't recognize Ukraine's new president come May 25. Putin has no interest letting the majority of Ukrainians have a say in their country's future. He doesn't want a friendly neighbor, he wants a submissive neighbor with his puppet in charge or better yet, annexation.

[missAmeno]

Russia doesn't want to occupy mainland Ukraine (if they did, they would have already taken it)...but they do want a friendly neighbor, AND the west to stay out....don't blame them...of course this is just my opinion, in trying to look at the situation from Russia's perspective.

Fathertime!

Fathertime, I am sorry if I am too harsh but you are an idiot (...of course this is just my opinion, in trying to look at the situation from common sense perspective).

Russia's perspective is not 'friendly neighbor' but a close Eurasia state in which Russia would dominate surrounding countries. If you wish to live in such state флаг Вам в руки и идите 'За Россию матушку вперед!' Ukrainians already have been there and desire to be there once again do not have.

[missAmeno]

Just my opinion...Ukraine have a much better chance of diplomatically dealing with Russia directly and save much of its country and citizenry and shun the west altogether. One way or another, the EU will suck Ukraine's gas anyway whether Ukraine is intact or otherwise.
 

And do you have suggestions how to do that? Give away Ukraine to them? Take Yanuckovych back? Make Russian our first and the only one language?

[Chelseaboy]

Russia's Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu has described NATO troops massing near Russian borders as "Unprecedented"

On Monday NATO continued to increase its presence in the Baltic regions as UK and France deployed eight fighter jets to Lithuania and Poland.

Four UK Typhoon jets touched down in Lithuania and four French Rafale jets landed in North-east Poland.

Russia is starting to get worried...as they realise Putler has made a huge miscalculation...but of course RTS won't admit that...must keep that Russian nationalistic fervour going eh ?

[Belvis]

It's a boring thing to carry on counterpropaganda. But this time it's a real fun so I'll spend my time for a post.
Recent article in NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/world/europe/photos-link-masked-men-in-east-ukraine-to-russia.html

I'll cite excepts from this article:

For two weeks, the mysteriously well-armed, professional gunmen known as “green men” have seized Ukrainian government sites in town after town, igniting a brush fire of separatist unrest across eastern Ukraine. Strenuous denials from the Kremlin have closely followed each accusation by Ukrainian officials that the world was witnessing a stealthy invasion by Russian forces.

OK, the Russians are coming!! No questions, who are they?

And Ukraine’s state security service has identified one Russian reported to be active among the green men as Igor Ivanovich Strelkov, a Russian military intelligence operative in his mid- to late 50s. He is said to have a long résumé of undercover service with the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian general staff.

Here is he, GRU colonel according to Ukrainian secret service:


Real name: Igor Girkin. He's a well known participant in a LARP (live action role-playing game) and was active in thematic fora. He has served in FSB in small ranks as he acknowledged in forum agenda. Now he plays a star role of commander-in-chief  of Self-Defence Force of Donetsk. Before that:





Another russian "special forces" man:

Another features a portly bearded man photographed in Slovyansk on April 14, wearing a camouflage uniform without insignia. Six years earlier, he had been photographed during Russia’s invasion of Georgia with a Russian special forces patch on his left arm.

There are very detailed photos where one can see clearly the only one common feature between men in Georgia and in Slovyansk, their beard. The talk is about this man:



He is a Cossack from Krasnodar region (south Russia). American reporter has interviewed him a day after the State Department spokeswoman  held Russia  responsible for armed militants in eastern Ukraine.
Real name: Alexander Mozhaev. He is a runaway from Russia where he was charged with knifing. Picturesque guy is inspired bloggers for creative artworks to show dreadful Spetsnaz:



Showmen and freaks take over Ukraine, not the Russian spetsnaz as US State Department want us to believe.

[Faux Pas]

It's a boring thing to carry on counterpropaganda. But this time it's a real fun so I'll spend my time for a post.
Recent article in NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/21/world/europe/photos-link-masked-men-in-east-ukraine-to-russia.html

I'll cite excepts from this article:
OK, the Russians are coming!! No questions, who are they?



Real name: Igor Girkin. He's a well known participant in a LARP (live action role-playing game) and was active in thematic fora. He has served in FSB in small ranks as he acknowledged in forum agenda. Now he plays a star role of commander-in-chief  of Self-Defence Force of Donetsk. Before that:

Another russian "special forces" man:
There are very detailed photos where one can see clearly the only one common feature between men in Georgia and in Slovyansk, their beard. The talk is about this man:

He is a Cossack from Krasnodar region (south Russia). American reporter has interviewed him a day after the State Department spokeswoman  held Russia  responsible for armed militants in eastern Ukraine.
Real name: Alexander Mozhaev. He is a runaway from Russia where he was charged with knifing. Picturesque guy is inspired bloggers for creative artworks to show dreadful Spetsnaz:


Showmen and freaks take over Ukraine, not the Russian spetsnaz as US State Department want us to believe.

The United States has proof that the Russian government in Moscow is running a network of spies inside eastern Ukraine because the U.S. government has recordings of their conversations, Secretary of State John Kerry said in a closed-door meeting Friday.

“Intel is producing taped conversations of intelligence operatives taking their orders from Moscow and everybody can tell the difference in the accents, in the idioms, in the language. We know exactly who’s giving those orders, we know where they are coming from,” Kerry said at a private meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Washington. A recording of Kerry’s remarks was obtained by The Daily Beast.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/29/kerry-u-s-taped-moscow-s-calls-to-its-ukraine-spies.html

That's very Putinesque of you Belvis. Deny, deny, deny. When caught lie again and deny, deny, deny

[fathertime]

Fathertime, I am sorry if I am too harsh but you are an idiot

As much as you would like to silence these sort of opinions, your emotional response just provides evidence that you are powerless to do so.    The article (and many others like it) shows things from the Russian perspective, and run counter to the narrative that YOU insist is full of truth.  Quite a few people don’t believe our western media (or representatives), which have been known to distort things, as I think was happening in this case.
I would suspect there are some Russian forces helping stir things up...but it appears to me that there is quite a bit of support within Ukraine.


Fathertime!   

[justme100]

You do realize you are just wasting your own time?
http://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%8C_%C2%AB%D0%97%D0%B0_%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%89%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B5_%D0%9A%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BC%D0%B0%C2%BB
http://korrespondent.net/world/russia/3328246-v-rossyy-uchredyly-medal-za-vozvraschenye-kryma
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/news/2014/03/25/n_6037281.shtml
http://www.pravda.ru/news/districts/south/crimea/25-03-2014/1201682-davayza-0/
http://rbctv.rbc.ru/archive/main_news/text/562949990952377.shtml
http://sammler.ru/index.php?showtopic=142324
http://www.ruslenta.com/index.php/production/23-zavozvrasheniekrima
http://kashin.guru/2014/03/25/secret/

I obviously don't like to waste my time so I'm not going to give you the same list of links from the same crappy sources as yours. The rumours had it for sveral weeks already and long ago it was announced it was a fake. Even one of the most pro-ukrainian sources admits it was a fake.
http://zaxid.net/home/showSingleNews.do?medal_za_vozvrashhenie_kryima_viyavilas_feykom&objectId=1305266


Although, why not?
Crmean defence really started in February. In the middle of the month when the Nazi busters from Maidan strted to take control over the administration buildings all over Ukraine, robbering guns from police departments. Shouting aloud on every corner - Ukraine is only for ukrainians, hang russians and the same stuff. Everyone knows what is the most russian place in Ukraine- for sure Crimea. And the same busters began writing- wait, Russians, we are coming!We will teach you love Ukraine. That is when the passengers of the bus coming from Kiev to Crimea were cut to death in Korsun by maidans. They liked it so much that even videotaped their crime and spread it in youtube. As they said - to show who is in power in THEIR country.
So our men in Sevastopol had to guard our administrative building and our police department. Days and nights. Other men were guarding Perekop in order not to let maydan people come to Crimea. They were there gunles. It was before the illegal junta came to power and before the first appearing of polite people which was on 28 of February in the Simferopol airport.
So my mother, as well as yours now I'm sure was crying at nights and called my brother every hour to ask if everything was ok. Because no country is worth child's life.
So yes, the defence of Crimea really started in February.

[justme100]

There were no problems there before Crimea.

Billy, you are not right. Check when it started there, check when the preparations for organization of Donetsk Republic was started by Pavel Gubarev and his wife Ekaterina Gubareva.
Miners have been always in disrespect in Ukraine, althought these regions that are now in the middle of the crisis were feedinbg all the country. And for sure miners couldn't agree with desire of The West to join EU. Check yourself the chronology of the events.

[Larry1]

Crmean defence really started in February. In the middle of the month when the Nazi busters from Maidan strted to take control over the administration buildings all over Ukraine, robbering guns from police departments. Shouting aloud on every corner - Ukraine is only for ukrainians, hang russians and the same stuff. Everyone knows what is the most russian place in Ukraine- for sure Crimea. And the same busters began writing- wait, Russians, we are coming!We will teach you love Ukraine. That is when the passengers of the bus coming from Kiev to Crimea were cut to death in Korsun by maidans. They liked it so much that even videotaped their crime and spread it in youtube. As they said - to show who is in power in THEIR country.

Do you have any evidence for this?

[Belvis]

The United States has proof that the Russian government in Moscow is running a network of spies inside eastern Ukraine because the U.S. government has recordings of their conversations, Secretary of State John Kerry said in a closed-door meeting Friday.

“Intel is producing taped conversations of intelligence operatives taking their orders from Moscow and everybody can tell the difference in the accents, in the idioms, in the language. We know exactly who’s giving those orders, we know where they are coming from,” Kerry said at a private meeting of the Trilateral Commission in Washington. A recording of Kerry’s remarks was obtained by The Daily Beast.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/29/kerry-u-s-taped-moscow-s-calls-to-its-ukraine-spies.html

That's very Putinesque of you Belvis. Deny, deny, deny. When caught lie again and deny, deny, deny

Deny what? ))
As for lie and reference to John Kerry may I refresh your memory? :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-schwarz/colin-powell-wmd-iraq-war_b_2624620.html

[justme100]

Do you have any evidence for this?

sure, they were very proud of it so spread it everywhere.



People cut and left in the ditch, the bus was burnt. "We are titushkas and we were punished" was written on it.

[Faux Pas]

Deny what? ))
As for lie and reference to John Kerry may I refresh your memory? :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jonathan-schwarz/colin-powell-wmd-iraq-war_b_2624620.html

Belvis, really? You post a link in reference to another politician 13 years earlier as a response or refute to Kerry's claim? This debate here, you lose friend 

[ML]

Intercepted calls Russian Officials to Ukraine Pro-Russians


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/29/kerry-u-s-taped-moscow-s-calls-to-its-ukraine-spies.html

[LiveFromUkraine]

Belvis, really? You post a link in reference to another politician 13 years earlier as a response or refute to Kerry's claim? This debate here, you lose friend 

While I am not surprised at Russian interference, I still wouldn't accept anything any government says at face value.  This is the same government who has proclaimed Obamacare a success besides the fact that US personnel conversations regarding who should run Ukraine was released.

[BillyB]

Billy, you are not right. Check when it started there, check when the preparations for organization of Donetsk Republic was started by Pavel Gubarev and his wife Ekaterina Gubareva.
Miners have been always in disrespect in Ukraine, althought these regions that are now in the middle of the crisis were feedinbg all the country. And for sure miners couldn't agree with desire of The West to join EU. Check yourself the chronology of the events.

Justme, I can believe you that there are groups of people that doesn't like the current government and always hated being Ukrainian. Even in America we have pockets of people that hate the current government or any government and will always cause trouble. The problems seem to escalate when Russia encouraged those people to fight, armed them and promised they back them in their fight the whole way.


When I see Ukrainians with brand new uniforms, ski masks, flak jackets, stun grenades, military grade razor wire, and weapons, I know Russia is involved and on Ukrainian soil. Putin lied about Russian troops being involved in Crimea. Although he recently told the truth, it goes to show he's willing to lie to the world and even worse, his own people. In videos, I see militia handling weapons professionall and driving armored vehicles they took from the Ukraine military. They are doing stunts such as donuts with those vehicles. These are professional troops operating in east Ukraine and many of them are Russian.


There are people in Ukraine that don't want to be Ukrainian. There are people in Russia that don't want to be Russian. There are people in America that don't want to be American and they can leave to live under the government of their choice but they can't take the land with them.


Russia has no intention of de-escalating the situation. They continue to bully and scare the Ukrainian military with their military. They continue covert operations in east Ukraine and supply east Ukrainians with weapons and gear. Putin continues to tell the world people should have the right to choose and Russia could offer to help monitor the May 25 elections but he doesn't want fair and free elections because he knows the truth that the majority of Ukrainians want to move in a different direction so Putin wants to control east Ukraine to control the elections and manufacture votes there or start a civil war. Invasion is his last option and it is an option.


I would've thought Russia, since the collapse of the USSR, would have been better off doing business with the international community instead of being hostile. Democracy has failed in Russia but is that because democracy is bad or is there still too much corruption in Russian politics for democracy to succeed? I understand Russian and pro Russians feel life in the USSR is better. I remember sitting on a bench in Kiev and talking to an Ukrainian man who felt this way but other people feel moving towards the west is better.


After all is said and done and if Ukraine survives and moves towards the west, Ukrainians may enjoy a better life. Look at their neighbors such as Poland and the Baltics. The people there make more income than Russians after they adopted a Western style economy. Why do some Ukrainians fear joining the West? The problems with Ukraine's current economy is not because they adopted a western style economy, it's because they never left the Russian way of doing business.


If Putin is so confident Russia provides the best road for Ukraine to travel on, he should let them go join the west for awhile to learn a lesson figuring Ukraine will come back to Russia for the good life. Putin isn't dumb. Once an ex Soviet satellite nation leaves Russia's area of influence, they don't come back.


Justme, I understand you consider yourself a proud Russian but you and your fellow citizens have to hold your government to much higher standards. Many nations have a high level of distrust with your government for valid reasons. Most nations would prefer to have a happy business relationship with Russia without worry of invasion. If Germany and Japan can have huge economic success with fewer people and resources than Russia, why can't Russia do the same if not better? NATO countries are not the threat and not holding Russia back from it's full potential, it's your government that is the problem and if the people continue to support that government, they will never improve to the same standards of living the people in the West enjoy.

[LiveFromUkraine]

When I see Ukrainians with brand new uniforms, ski masks, flak jackets, stun grenades, military grade razor wire, and weapons, I know Russia is involved and on Ukrainian soil. Putin lied about Russian troops being involved in Crimea. Although he recently told the truth, it goes to show he's willing to lie to the world and even worse, his own people. In videos, I see militia handling weapons professionall and driving armored vehicles they took from the Ukraine military. They are doing stunts such as donuts with those vehicles. These are professional troops operating in east Ukraine and many of them are Russian.

You do realize that military service was mandatory in Ukraine, right?  I would hope they learned how to handle a weapon while in service.

[Faux Pas]

While I am not surprised at Russian interference, I still wouldn't accept anything any government says at face value.  This is the same government who has proclaimed Obamacare a success besides the fact that US personnel conversations regarding who should run Ukraine was released.

You are preaching to the choir on this and I would take it one further, don't accept anything or take at face value anything that comes from the lips of a politician including the government they represent. I don't trust none of the bastids. However, Russian propaganda versus American propaganda, let history part and future be the judge.

[Belvis]

Belvis, really? You post a link in reference to another politician 13 years earlier as a response or refute to Kerry's claim? This debate here, you lose friend 

We're not debating, I provide you direct information and you want me to trust Kerry 
Let Kerry give out names of all persons involved from recorded conversations, then we can continue debates.  He said: We know exactly who’s giving those orders, we know where they are coming from.
I have already showed what he meant.

[fathertime]

and you want me to trust Kerry 
Let Kerry give out names of all persons involved from recorded conversations, then we can continue debates.  He said: We know exactly who’s giving those orders, we know where they are coming from.
I have already showed what he meant.

I don't think a majority of people in the USA trust Kerry to tell the truth without omitting some relevant facts.  I don don't know how he plays elsewhere but He's very polarizing here.  We really need different people representing us
Fathertime!

[GQBlues]

And do you have suggestions how to do that? Give away Ukraine to them? Take Yanuckovych back? Make Russian our first and the only one language?

MissA-

"Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company!"

Undoubtedly Ukraine is, and always had been, in a fairly compromised situation as a nation. I had previously mentioned in another thread that Ukraine, for all intent and purposes, had become one of the globe's *political pinata* by those in power. Pinata is a traditional Mexican child's game where kids are given a stick to pound on a hanging paper figure full of goods and candies. Kids take turns hitting on this figure one at a time. When the figure finally bursts, all the goods and candies pour out of its shell...then everyone grabs a handful of its content.



Unfortunately, this is how I see Ukraine in this crisis today. Just like what Libya was recently. The *goods* being what they've discovered and explored underneath Ukraine.

This types of discovery and events had happened, albeit of varying resource, all over Asia, Africa, Middle-East and in the Americas. No need to tell you what happened in those regions since discovery to today.

Case in point, the biggest gas reserves in Ukraine is believed to be in the Crimean coast. Not in the west/east of Ukraine. Prior to the Crimea referendum, there were major skepticism as to whether or not the western greed conglomerate of Exxon (US), Shell (Netherlands/UK), Eli (Italy) will be able to exact their contracts with the newly and illegitimately placed government of Ukraine. All the Crimean election really did was transfer this group's loyalty and alliance to whoever it now needs to sleep with. Do take notice of the corresponding dates in those news. Shell's Executive even went as far as being a guest in Putin's 'home'.

Sanctions? I don't think so. One of the main players in this sanction party is Germany. That in itself is pretty ironic.

You asked how can Ukraine diplomatically deal with Russia? The real question is, how can it not? Based on the events taking place prior to, during, and after the illegal takeover of Ukraine's government, the western states have shown huge disregard to Ukraine and its peoples. Their interest lie in what is underneath Ukraine, not what is above. Like a pinata. Russia doesn't need your gas. They have more than plenty. They certainly don't need your land, they already have a huge part of their heritage well strewn into Ukraine's population.

My roots came from a nation that had unfortunately been a gateway to the Orient. It had always been a geographical doormat for hundreds of years by those who yield the power to rape and plunder. That is still true and well exercised today - anywhere and everywhere.

edit to add:

With the present discovery of permafrost occurring in our globe, chances are good they'll keep discovering sources of natural gas deposits anywhere and everywhere soon.

[GQBlues]

Intercepted calls Russian Officials to Ukraine Pro-Russians


http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/04/29/kerry-u-s-taped-moscow-s-calls-to-its-ukraine-spies.html

WOW! Really!?!

Moscow is communicating with Pro-Russians in Ukraine? OMG! How can they do that?!? What a bulletin indeed!

Well, we better send Joe Biden back to Ukraine to make sure Russia knows we are communication with the Ukrainians in case they've missed all the events leading to all this mess.